We develop a dynamic investment model with loan guarantees wherein insurers face information disadvantages and learn about borrower quality. Borrowers signal their qualities through investment timing, which is characterized by the investment threshold and elapsed time. We derive the conditions for separating or pooling equilibria. We show that the separating investment threshold is constant and determined mainly by the maximum threshold preventing mimicry. If project risk is higher (lower) than the market growth rate, the pooling investment threshold declines (increases) with elapsed time, and learning enhances (reduces) the willingness of high-quality borrowers to wait. Learning alleviates adverse selection and reduces guarantee costs. These effects are more pronounced with a greater uncertainty of the insurer on borrower quality. We reveal dual effects of waiting. The worse the market prospect, the higher the value of waiting in pooling outcomes. Fee-for-guarantee swaps are superior to equity-for-guarantee swaps in environments with marked information asymmetry.
Low income households in agrarian developing economies face considerable livelihood risks, which have negative impacts on welfare. A growing literature focuses on internal constraints on development, which can negatively affect saving and investment behavior. Here I propose that internal constraints may also hinder risk management. Specifically, I present a theoretical model that explores how fairness preferences may create an internal constraint on risk sharing, particularly in a context of wealth inequality, and thereby also affect demand for formal insurance. To test this theory, I utilize a lab experiment, conducted in Ghana, to investigate the impact of wealth inequality on utilization of risk-management tools, interpersonal risk sharing and formal insurance, and explore how fairness preferences may mediate this effect. I find that inequality reduces risk sharing and increases demand for insurance. Moreover, I find suggestive evidence that fairness preferences create an internal constraint on risk sharing under inequality.
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