Terrorism and Political Violence最新文献

{"title":"Terrorism Mortality Salience Manipulation: A Causal Mediation Analysis","authors":"F. Erol","doi":"10.1080/09546553.2022.2060081","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2022.2060081","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Building upon past findings on terrorism and individual-level politically conservative self-identification, I evaluate the effect of terrorism mortality reminders on conservative self-placement with three survey experiments, using non-representative Facebook samples in Turkey (2018, 2020). The scant existing experimental findings outside the usual Northwestern European and North American environment make it difficult to assess how the context (e.g., the longevity and diversity of terrorism problems in a country) can explain the alignment between terrorism threats and conservatism. In non-Western areas such as Turkey, with various types of terrorism over time, the link between terrorism threat and conservatism may remain uniform. However, the fear of death in a terrorist attack elicited by the terrorism mortality salience would create psychological strain and make individuals suppress terrorism-related death-thoughts by moving away from conservatism, reminding them of the human body’s vulnerability to threats and igniting fearfulness. Using the Terror Management Theory perspective, this study explored the causal mechanism running from terrorism mortality reminder to terrorism mortality fear to conservative self-identification. In all three studies, conservatism decreased when the respondents felt fearful of terrorism mortality and the treated respondents became more conservative if the terrorism mortality fear was kept at its average value (as a covariate).","PeriodicalId":51451,"journal":{"name":"Terrorism and Political Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44221223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sources of Conventional and Guerrilla Strategies in Ethno-Territorial Civil Wars","authors":"S. Horowitz","doi":"10.1080/09546553.2022.2054338","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2022.2054338","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In ethno-territorial civil wars, which factors influence whether rebels choose and retain conventional warfare as their primary military strategy throughout the conflict, or whether they use guerrilla warfare as a primary strategy during periods judged to be less advantageous to conventional warfare? The existing literature almost exclusively emphasizes relative power as the determining factor: rebels use guerrilla warfare because they typically lack the capability to fight conventional wars effectively against states. I find some support for this hypothesis: ethno-territorial rebels are much more likely to fight exclusively conventional wars when external states intervene conventionally on the rebel side. I also find that rebel leaders with more intense, far-reaching nationalist goals are more likely to employ guerrilla warfare as a primary war strategy. For such leaders, the higher costs of using guerrilla methods pending an eventual transition to conventional warfare are made more acceptable by a higher valuation of the far-reaching gains delivered by military victory—gains expected to be made more likely by interim periods in which guerrilla warfare is the primary strategy. Turning to other factors, I do not find that status quo conditions or a high level of state democracy have a significant influence.","PeriodicalId":51451,"journal":{"name":"Terrorism and Political Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48624348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Economic Perspective on Terrorism and Counterterrorism","authors":"Todd Sandler","doi":"10.1080/09546553.2023.2259992","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2023.2259992","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTThis occasional-series paper offers an economic perspective on the study of terrorism and counterterrorism. At the outset, the paper identifies how the economic perspective enriches terrorism analysis by stressing rational choice of myriad agents (e.g., the terrorist groups, their supporters, and targeted governments) subject to constraints. Game-theoretic strategic rational choice allows allied and adversarial agents to incorporate the responses of others into their interdependent choices. Economists’ theoretical paradigms are judged by their success in predicting agents’ behavior and informing effective policies. Since 9/11, many political scientists, operation researchers, sociologists, and others applied economic methods to their study of terrorism. To illustrate selected applications of the economic approach, the paper considers findings from economic studies on bargaining and making concessions during hostage incidents, judging the effectiveness of counterterrorism strategies, identifying the economic consequences of terrorism, and finding adequate identification strategies in empirical studies. Future directions and some shortcomings of the economic approach complete the study.KEYWORDS: Economic approachrationality and terrorismconcessions in hostage incidentseconomic consequences of terrorist attacksempirical identification strategies AcknowledgmentsThe author profited from comments from two anonymous reviewers.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1. Lionel Robbins, The Nature and Significance of Economic Science (London: Macmillan, 1962), 16.2. Jack Hirshleifer, “The Expanding Domain of Economics,” American Economic Review 75, no. 6 (1985): 53–68.3. See, e.g., Navin A. Bapat, “Transnational Terrorism, US Military Aid, and the Incentive to Misrepresent,” Journal of Peace Research 48, no. 3 (2011): 303–18; Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, “Conciliation, Counterterrorism, and Patterns of Terrorist Violence,” International Organization 59, no. 1 (2005): 145–76; Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, “The Quality of Terror,” American Journal of Political Science 49, no. 3 (2005): 515–30; David B. Carter, “The Strategy of Territorial Conflict,” American Journal of Political Science 54, no. 4 (2010): 969–87; David B. Carter, “A Blessing or Curse? State Support for Terrorist Groups,” International Organization 66, no. 1 (2012): 129–51; James A. Piazza, “Incubators of Terror: Do Failed and Failing States Promote Transnational Terrorism?” International Studies Quarterly 52, no. 3 (2008): 469–88; James A. Piazza, “Poverty, Minority Economic Discrimination, and Domestic Terrorism,” Journal of Peace Research 48, no. 3 (2011): 339–53.4. Walter Enders and Todd Sandler, The Political Economy of Terrorism, 2nd ed. (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012), 4.5. See, e.g., Yonah Alexander and Dennis Pluchinsky, Europe’s Red Terrorists: The Fighting Communist Organizations (London: Frank Cass, 1992); Martha Crenshaw","PeriodicalId":51451,"journal":{"name":"Terrorism and Political Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135739447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Breaking the Bank: Effects of Domestic Conflict on the Banking Sector in Turkey","authors":"Emine Arı, Reşat Bayer, Özge Kemahlıoğlu","doi":"10.1080/09546553.2023.2252104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2023.2252104","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTAlthough banks occupy a central role in most (post-)conflict situations, there is a perplexing lack of attention to them in studies of political violence. As a case experiencing domestic conflict with varying degrees in the last decades, Turkey offers opportunities to understand how the banking sector, including state deposit banks, responds to such political violence. We focus on the short-term impact of political violence and address the following questions: Do all actors in the sector respond in similar ways to security threats? Is there variation according to conflict intensity? We shed light on these puzzles with an analysis of original data on bank ownership, bank branches, bank deposit amounts, and bank credits. We show that banks with profit incentives respond to conflict by lowering their presence in provinces hit by these attacks. In comparison, our finding that deposits in high conflict intensity areas are not affected suggests that it is indeed economic actors outside high intensity regions that are more sensitive to short-time changes in security compared to local ones. Overall, the results demonstrate that political violence hurts banks’ presence in conflict locations and their presence matters through credit provision to these areas.KEYWORDS: Bankingpolitical violencepost-conflict economypublic/private policy and terrorismconflict region Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Supplementary materialSupplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2023.2252104Notes1. John Horgan and Max Taylor, “Playing the ‘Green Card’—Financing the Provisional IRA: Part 2,” Terrorism and Political Violence 15, no. 2 (2003): 1–60. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546550312331293027; Emre Hatipoglu and Dursun Peksen, “Economic Sanctions and Banking Crises in Target Economies,” Defence and Peace Economics 29, no. 2 (2018): 171–89. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2016.1245811.2. Edward Moxon-Browne, European Terrorism (New York , Toronto: Macmillan, 1994); John Otis, “Rebirth, or Relapse? Colombia Hits a Post-War Turning Point,” Americas Quarterly, 2017. https://www.americasquarterly.org/fulltextarticle/rebirth-or-relapse-colombia-hits-a-post-war-turning-point/.3. Luigi Gioso Paola Sapienza and Luigi Zingales, “The Role of Social Capital in Financial Development,” The American Economic Review 94, no. 3 (2004): 526–56.4. Paul Collier and Marguerite Duponchel, “The Economic Legacy of Civil War: Firm-Level Evidence from Sierra Leone,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 57, no. 1 (2013): 65–88.5. Tilman Brück, Wim Naudé, and Philip Verwimp, “Small Business, Entrepreneurship and Violent Conflict in Developing Countries,” Journal of Small Business & Entrepreneurship 24, no. 2 (2011): 161–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/08276331.2011.10593532.6. Asli Demirgüc-Kunt, Leora F. Klapper, and Georgios A. Panos, “Entrepreneurship in Post-Conflict Transition,” Economics of Transit","PeriodicalId":51451,"journal":{"name":"Terrorism and Political Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135829108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Target Hardening and Non-State Armed Groups’ Target Selection: Evidence from India","authors":"Ilayda B. Onder","doi":"10.1080/09546553.2023.2252917","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2023.2252917","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTThis study explores the variation in the non-state armed group (NSAGs)'s behavior concerning target selection. Scholars of transnational terrorism have investigated transnational NSAGs' target selection. However, we are still missing out on the most common form of terrorism, terrorism perpetrated by domestic NSAGs involved in civil conflicts. This paper’s novel contribution is to the understanding of domestic NSAGs’ strategic logic. I argue that hardening makes soft targets, including civilians, attractive targets when hard targets are no longer attractive. NSAGs tactically adapt to hardening by switching to soft targets or by displacing attacks to adjacent locations within their home country. The empirical results from data on relevant state-group dyads in India between 2004–2016 show that domestic NSAGs (1) switch to soft targets when faced with hardening, (2) less frequently target soft targets when more of their attacks against hard targets have been logistically successful, and (3) commit more attacks in their primary area of operation when more of their attacks in that location have been logistically successful. These findings emphasize a variety of ways through which domestic NSAGs adapt their tactics and underscore potential costs for target hardening.KEYWORDS: Hardeningtarget selectionnon-state armed groupsterrorism in civil conflictstargeting of civiliansdomestic terrorism Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Supplementary materialSupplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2023.2252917.Notes1. Walter Enders and Todd Sandler, “What Do We Know about the Substitution Effect in Transnational Terrorism?” in Research on Terrorism: Trends, Achievements, and Failures, ed. Andrew Silke (Routledge, 2004).2. Patrick T. Brandt and Todd Sandler, “What Do Transnational Terrorists Target? Has It Changed? Are We Safer?” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 54, no. 2 (2010): 214–36; Walter Enders and Todd Sandler, “Distribution of Transnational Terrorism among Countries by Income Class and Geography after 9/11,” International Studies Quarterly 50, no. 2 (2006): 367–93.3. Joseph K. Young and Michael G. Findley, “Promise and Pitfalls of Terrorism Research,” International Studies Review 13, no. 3 (2011): 411–31.4. Brandt and Sandler, “What Do Transnational Terrorists Target?”5. START, “National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism, and Responses to Terrorism,” Global Terrorism Database, 2018, https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/ (accessed April 27, 2021).6. Ibid.7. The GTD defines a terrorist attack as “the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a non-state actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation” (10). To be included in the GTD, an incident must (1) be intentional, (2) entail some level of violence, and (3) be perpetrated by a non-state actor. In addition to these three crite","PeriodicalId":51451,"journal":{"name":"Terrorism and Political Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135580043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Decade of Media Coverage of the Social Reintegration of Terrorism-Related Convicts: France as a Case Study","authors":"Caroline Da Silva, Nicolas Amadio, Rachel Sarg, Bruno Domingo, Massil Benbouriche","doi":"10.1080/09546553.2023.2248269","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2023.2248269","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTThe social reintegration of terrorism-related convicts in Europe is a pressing issue. Public opinion can play an essential role in this by making it easier or more difficult to implement (and succeed with) social reintegration strategies. Considering the media’s influence on shaping public opinions, attitudes, and social representations, the present research offers a case study by reviewing a decade (2011–2022) of media coverage of the social reintegration of terrorism-related convicts in the seven most read national daily newspapers in France. Results reveal that the topic is very little covered, with 395 newspaper articles published over a decade, and mostly discussing deradicalization, specifically, rather than social reintegration at large. Cluster analysis via Reinert’s method reveals that when the topic is discussed it revolves around political and security management (political discourse and security measures), target population (radical Muslims and returnees), and tertiary prevention programs (programs in prison and open settings). A time series analysis of clusters shows their chronological evolution. These findings and their implications for generating (mis)trust in the social reintegration of terrorism-related convicts amongst the general public are discussed.KEYWORDS: Mediapublic opinionterrorismradicalizationsocial reintegration Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Data Availability StatementThe data supporting the findings of this study are available in Open Science Framework, along with more detailed information on the included newspaper articles, more examples of text segments for each cluster, the French materials (keywords, text segments, and Figure 2), and the interrater agreement: https://osf.io/q9bwv/?view_only=b92dabfe4c08488da5e19eea8dbcf28dNotes1. Europol, “European Union Terrorism Situation and Trend Report 2021” (Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2021), https://ctmorse.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/tesat_2021.pdf.2. MLRV, « La Stratégie Pénitentiaire de Lutte Contre la Radicalisation et le Terrorisme: Evolution et Dispositifs Actuels » [The Penitentiary Strategy to Fight Radicalization and Terrorism: Evolution and Current Arrangements] (paper presented at Journée d’études « Du milieu fermé au milieu ouvert: la réintégration sociale des personnes condamnées pour terrorisme », Lille, France, June, 10, 2022).3. Alpaslan Özerdem, “A Re-Conceptualisation of Ex-Combatant Reintegration: ‘Social Reintegration’ Approach,” Conflict, Security & Development 12, no. 1 (2012): 51–73, https://doi.org/10.1080/14678802.2012.667661.4. John Horgan, “Deradicalization or Disengagement? A Process in Need of Clarity and a Counterterrorism Initiative in Need of Evaluation,” International Journal of Social Psychology 24, no. 2 (2009): 291–298, https://doi.org/10.1174/021347409788041408.5. Fernando Reinares, “Exit from Terrorism: A Qualitative Empirical S","PeriodicalId":51451,"journal":{"name":"Terrorism and Political Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135148656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Missing the Spoiler: Israel’s Policy with Regard to Hamas during the Oslo Talks and the First Stages of the Implementation of the Oslo Accords","authors":"Elad Ben-Dror, Netanel Flamer","doi":"10.1080/09546553.2023.2242511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2023.2242511","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51451,"journal":{"name":"Terrorism and Political Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48949546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Systematic Review of the Risk and Protective Factors for Processes Associated with Islamist Radicalization and Extremism","authors":"Isgard Ohls, Diba S. Hosseini, A. Spasojevic, F. Brandes, Rashid Bajwa, Kaser Ahmed, Jurgen Gallinat, A. Karow, M. Allroggen","doi":"10.1080/09546553.2023.2243349","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2023.2243349","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51451,"journal":{"name":"Terrorism and Political Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47059100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Gangster and the Bride: The Media Representation of Masculinity and Femininity in News Coverage of Jihadi Terrorists","authors":"Michael Krona, Olivia Caskey","doi":"10.1080/09546553.2023.2244083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2023.2244083","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51451,"journal":{"name":"Terrorism and Political Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42443750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"“I Don’t Justify Anything Regarding My Son:” Danish Foreign Fighters’ Initial Attraction and Reaffirmed Commitment to Islamic State and Al Qaeda—Testimonies from Five Relatives","authors":"Kathrine Elmose Jørgensen","doi":"10.1080/09546553.2022.2045964","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2022.2045964","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Relatives are a potentially rich source of insight regarding foreign fighters’ pathways into Islamist fundamentalism. However, a small fraction of the literature that explores Salafi-jihadist trajectories examines the testimonies of extremists’ families. Based on qualitative interviews with relatives of five Danish, non-returned male foreign fighters, this article explores how and why—according to their relatives—the men were initially attracted and reaffirmed their commitment to violent jihadism. Findings reveal tensions within the data between ascribing responsibility to the men and mitigating their responsibility. Yet, the article suggests that the relatives’ testimonies should not be perceived simply as using “neutralization techniques” nor as exculpatory narratives, since there is a tendency for the relatives to acknowledge and even accept the men’s deviance.","PeriodicalId":51451,"journal":{"name":"Terrorism and Political Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48165717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}