首页 > 最新文献

Technological and Economic Development of Economy最新文献

英文 中文
THE IMPACT OF EPIDEMICS ON GREEN INNOVATION: GLOBAL ANALYSIS 流行病对绿色创新的影响:全球分析
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2023.18677
Xinxin Zhao, Jie Ma, Jun Wen, Chun-ping Chang
Epidemics and their resulting pandemics have become essential factors influencing economic development, financial stability, poverty, and ultimately a country’s innovation level, including green technology innovation. This research thus investigates epidemic events’ correlation to green innovation by operating with skewed panel data involving 134 countries from 1971 to 2018 and provides compelling proof that Epidemics have a detrimental effect on green innovation, not only for the current year but also for the next six years. We also show that the quality of institutions and financial development levels weaken epidemics’ detrimental effects on green innovation. Overall, the findings would draw particular attention from policymakers.
流行病及其引发的流行病已成为影响经济发展、金融稳定、贫困以及最终影响包括绿色技术创新在内的一个国家创新水平的重要因素。因此,本研究通过对134个国家1971年至2018年的倾斜面板数据进行操作,调查了流行病事件与绿色创新的相关性,并提供了令人信服的证据,证明流行病对绿色创新产生不利影响,不仅对当年,而且对未来六年都是如此。我们还表明,制度质量和金融发展水平削弱了流行病对绿色创新的不利影响。总的来说,这些发现将引起政策制定者的特别关注。
{"title":"THE IMPACT OF EPIDEMICS ON GREEN INNOVATION: GLOBAL ANALYSIS","authors":"Xinxin Zhao, Jie Ma, Jun Wen, Chun-ping Chang","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.18677","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18677","url":null,"abstract":"Epidemics and their resulting pandemics have become essential factors influencing economic development, financial stability, poverty, and ultimately a country’s innovation level, including green technology innovation. This research thus investigates epidemic events’ correlation to green innovation by operating with skewed panel data involving 134 countries from 1971 to 2018 and provides compelling proof that Epidemics have a detrimental effect on green innovation, not only for the current year but also for the next six years. We also show that the quality of institutions and financial development levels weaken epidemics’ detrimental effects on green innovation. Overall, the findings would draw particular attention from policymakers.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"167 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77542279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
COULD “DIGITAL GOLD” RESIST GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN PRESSURE? “数字黄金”能否抵御全球供应链压力?
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2023.18557
Meng Qin, Chiwei Su, Yunxu Wang, Nicoleta Mihaela Doran
Exploring the safe-haven characteristics of bitcoin from novel perspectives is crucial to diversify the investment and reap the benefits. This investigation employs bootstrap full-and sub-sample techniques to probe time-varying interrelation between global supply chain pressure (GSCP) and bitcoin price (BP), and further answer if “digital gold” could resist the strains of global supply chain. The empirical outcomes suggest that GSCP positively and negatively affects BP. The positive influence points out that high GSCP might boost the international bitcoin market, driving BP to rise, which indicates that “digital gold” could resist the pressures of global supply chain. But the negative effect of GSCP on BP could not support the above view, mainly affected by the weak purchasing power and more valuable assets, which is not consistent with the assumption of the inter-temporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM). In turn, GSCP is adversely affected by BP, highlighting that the international bitcoin market may be viewed as a stress reliever for the global supply chain. Against a backdrop of the deteriorative Russia-Ukraine war and the intensifying global supply chain crisis, the above conclusions could bring significative lessons to the public, enterprises and related economies.
从新的角度探索比特币的避险特性对于实现投资多元化和获得收益至关重要。本研究采用自举全样本和子样本技术来探讨全球供应链压力(GSCP)与比特币价格(BP)之间的时变相互关系,并进一步回答“数字黄金”是否能够抵御全球供应链的压力。实证结果表明,GSCP对BP有正向和负向影响。正面影响指出,高GSCP可能会提振国际比特币市场,带动BP上涨,这表明“数字黄金”可以抵御全球供应链的压力。但GSCP对BP的负面影响不能支持上述观点,主要受购买力较弱和资产价值较高的影响,这与跨期资本资产定价模型(ICAPM)的假设不一致。反过来,GSCP受到BP的不利影响,这突显出国际比特币市场可能被视为全球供应链的压力缓解剂。在俄乌战争愈演愈烈、全球供应链危机愈演愈烈的背景下,上述结论对公众、企业和相关经济体具有重要的借鉴意义。
{"title":"COULD “DIGITAL GOLD” RESIST GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN PRESSURE?","authors":"Meng Qin, Chiwei Su, Yunxu Wang, Nicoleta Mihaela Doran","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.18557","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18557","url":null,"abstract":"Exploring the safe-haven characteristics of bitcoin from novel perspectives is crucial to diversify the investment and reap the benefits. This investigation employs bootstrap full-and sub-sample techniques to probe time-varying interrelation between global supply chain pressure (GSCP) and bitcoin price (BP), and further answer if “digital gold” could resist the strains of global supply chain. The empirical outcomes suggest that GSCP positively and negatively affects BP. The positive influence points out that high GSCP might boost the international bitcoin market, driving BP to rise, which indicates that “digital gold” could resist the pressures of global supply chain. But the negative effect of GSCP on BP could not support the above view, mainly affected by the weak purchasing power and more valuable assets, which is not consistent with the assumption of the inter-temporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM). In turn, GSCP is adversely affected by BP, highlighting that the international bitcoin market may be viewed as a stress reliever for the global supply chain. Against a backdrop of the deteriorative Russia-Ukraine war and the intensifying global supply chain crisis, the above conclusions could bring significative lessons to the public, enterprises and related economies.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91237679","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
THE CORRELATION BETWEEN DOUBLE TAXATION CONVENTIONS, TAX COMPLIANCE, AND TAX EVASION. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM OECD COUNTRIES 双重征税惯例、税收合规和逃税之间的关系。来自经合组织国家的经验证据
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-14 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2023.18260
F. Dumiter
The topics approached in this paper are of interest due to the divergent opinions that emerged in the media academics and practitioners concerning how the double taxation conventions are constructed, the official language in which an international convention must be written, and their de facto application, both in bilateral situations and among triangular or multilateral situations. To be more specific, the way in which double taxation conventions are constructed, signed, and implemented will generate changes in the level of direct taxes, at a certain time interval, both economically and legally with a special focus on tax compliance and tax evasion. Consequently, tax compliance is very important because of the behavior of the taxpayer and the willingness to pay taxes both on the national and international levels. Moreover, tax evasion is a serious problem that creates distortion and undermines worldwide trade and commerce. In this article, it is approached the complex relationship between double taxation conventions, tax compliance, and tax behavior in order to establish the connections and interactions between these three important aspects. The objective of this study is o evaluate and assess the interconnections between these three variables. The empirical study is revealed for selected comprehensive OECD countries with a panel data approach and with modeling techniques using Python software. The conclusions of this study reveal that between double taxation conventions, tax compliance, and tax evasion there is manifested strong connections both positive and negative, aspects highlighted by the empirical results, because the complex relationship manifested in practice regarding the stipulation of the law, the financial aspects and the application of fiscal policy, both on national and international levels.
由于媒体学者和从业者对如何构建双重征税公约,国际公约必须使用的官方语言以及它们在双边情况下以及在三角或多边情况下的实际应用出现了不同的意见,因此本文所探讨的主题很有趣。更具体地说,双重征税公约的构建、签署和实施方式将在一定的时间间隔内,在经济和法律上产生直接税水平的变化,特别关注税收合规和逃税。因此,税收合规是非常重要的,因为纳税人的行为和愿意在国家和国际层面上纳税。此外,逃税是造成扭曲和破坏全球贸易和商业的严重问题。本文探讨了双重征税协定、税收合规和税收行为之间的复杂关系,以建立这三个重要方面之间的联系和相互作用。本研究的目的是评估和评估这三个变量之间的相互联系。实证研究揭示了选定的综合经合组织国家与面板数据方法和使用Python软件建模技术。本研究的结论表明,双重征税协定、税收合规和逃税之间表现出强烈的积极和消极联系,实证结果突出了这一点,因为在国家和国际层面上,法律的规定、金融方面和财政政策的应用在实践中表现出复杂的关系。
{"title":"THE CORRELATION BETWEEN DOUBLE TAXATION CONVENTIONS, TAX COMPLIANCE, AND TAX EVASION. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM OECD COUNTRIES","authors":"F. Dumiter","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.18260","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18260","url":null,"abstract":"The topics approached in this paper are of interest due to the divergent opinions that emerged in the media academics and practitioners concerning how the double taxation conventions are constructed, the official language in which an international convention must be written, and their de facto application, both in bilateral situations and among triangular or multilateral situations. To be more specific, the way in which double taxation conventions are constructed, signed, and implemented will generate changes in the level of direct taxes, at a certain time interval, both economically and legally with a special focus on tax compliance and tax evasion. Consequently, tax compliance is very important because of the behavior of the taxpayer and the willingness to pay taxes both on the national and international levels. Moreover, tax evasion is a serious problem that creates distortion and undermines worldwide trade and commerce. In this article, it is approached the complex relationship between double taxation conventions, tax compliance, and tax behavior in order to establish the connections and interactions between these three important aspects. The objective of this study is o evaluate and assess the interconnections between these three variables. The empirical study is revealed for selected comprehensive OECD countries with a panel data approach and with modeling techniques using Python software. The conclusions of this study reveal that between double taxation conventions, tax compliance, and tax evasion there is manifested strong connections both positive and negative, aspects highlighted by the empirical results, because the complex relationship manifested in practice regarding the stipulation of the law, the financial aspects and the application of fiscal policy, both on national and international levels.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"1154 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74621751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY AND BILATERAL TRADE FLOWS IN SELECTED COMESA AND EAST ASIA COUNTRIES 某些东南非共同市场和东亚国家的经济复杂性和双边贸易流动
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2023.18682
Abdikafi Hassan Abdi, M. Zaidi, Zulkefly Abdul Karim
A particular country’s productive knowledge and sophistication become a crucial determinant for the exported products in the increasingly integrated global trade. However, studies that emphasize the connection between economic complexity and trade flows are still sparse. This research aims to examine the role of economic complexity on bilateral trade flows of 27 countries in COMESA and East Asia using the gravity model from 1995 till 2019. Based on countries’ geographical regions and income levels, the empirical estimation of the study applied the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator. The main results are robust to various model specifications and consistent with the expectations of the gravity model indicators. The study found strong empirical evidence that the expansion of economic sophistication and diversification enlarges trade flows of different exported goods. Explicitly, economic complexity increases the exports of machinery and transport equipment alongside manufactured products, while its effects on agricultural exports are negligible. Thus, this study proposes that the countries should engage in more sophisticated Research and Development (R&D), attract multinational companies, establish industrial policies, and improve their productivity by utilizing the existing production network. They should move to a more diversified production and trade structure to enhance their bilateral trade flows.
在日益一体化的全球贸易中,一个特定国家的生产知识和成熟程度成为出口产品的关键决定因素。然而,强调经济复杂性和贸易流动之间联系的研究仍然很少。本研究旨在利用引力模型考察1995 - 2019年东南非共同市场和东亚27个国家经济复杂性对双边贸易流动的影响。基于各国的地理区域和收入水平,本研究的实证估计采用了泊松伪极大似然(PPML)估计。主要结果对各种模型规格具有鲁棒性,与重力模型指标的预期一致。研究发现强有力的经验证据表明,经济复杂性和多样化的扩大扩大了不同出口商品的贸易流量。显然,经济复杂性增加了机械和运输设备以及制成品的出口,而其对农产品出口的影响可以忽略不计。因此,本研究建议各国应加强研究与开发(R&D),吸引跨国公司,制定产业政策,并利用现有的生产网络提高其生产率。双方应朝着更加多元化的生产和贸易结构发展,促进双边贸易往来。
{"title":"ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY AND BILATERAL TRADE FLOWS IN SELECTED COMESA AND EAST ASIA COUNTRIES","authors":"Abdikafi Hassan Abdi, M. Zaidi, Zulkefly Abdul Karim","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.18682","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18682","url":null,"abstract":"A particular country’s productive knowledge and sophistication become a crucial determinant for the exported products in the increasingly integrated global trade. However, studies that emphasize the connection between economic complexity and trade flows are still sparse. This research aims to examine the role of economic complexity on bilateral trade flows of 27 countries in COMESA and East Asia using the gravity model from 1995 till 2019. Based on countries’ geographical regions and income levels, the empirical estimation of the study applied the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator. The main results are robust to various model specifications and consistent with the expectations of the gravity model indicators. The study found strong empirical evidence that the expansion of economic sophistication and diversification enlarges trade flows of different exported goods. Explicitly, economic complexity increases the exports of machinery and transport equipment alongside manufactured products, while its effects on agricultural exports are negligible. Thus, this study proposes that the countries should engage in more sophisticated Research and Development (R&D), attract multinational companies, establish industrial policies, and improve their productivity by utilizing the existing production network. They should move to a more diversified production and trade structure to enhance their bilateral trade flows.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82940307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
THE SHRINKING MIDDLE: EXPLORING THE NEXUS BETWEEN INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY, GROWTH, AND INEQUALITY 缩小的中间阶层:探索信息和通信技术、增长和不平等之间的联系
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2023.18713
Yeongjun Yeo, Won-Sik Hwang, Jeong-dong Lee
To implement specific actions to respond to challenges accompanied by technological advances, it is essential to realize the foreseen future at different levels. This study aims to generate the forecasts of different prospects of different industries, labor market, and households, depending on the pervasiveness of the information and communication (ICT) software (SW) in production. For the analysis, we propose a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that explicitly incorporates diverse impact channels induced by ICT SW investments. Our simulation results suggest that the development of ICT SW technology can bring about both opportunities and challenges in the economic system. The results also show that advancements in ICT SW can aggravate inequalities within the economic system, while driving higher economic growth effects by accelerating the polarization of the labor market and wages/income distributions. Accordingly, our results suggest that policymakers should formulate tailored policy options to mitigate structural problems and widen income disparities driven by ICT-specific technological advances to achieve economic inclusiveness.
为了采取具体行动应对技术进步带来的挑战,必须在不同层面实现可预见的未来。本研究旨在以资讯及通讯软体(ICT)在生产中的普及程度为依据,对不同产业、劳动市场及家庭的不同前景进行预测。为了进行分析,我们提出了一个可计算的一般均衡(CGE)模型,该模型明确纳入了ICT SW投资引起的各种影响渠道。我们的模拟结果表明,ICT SW技术的发展给经济系统带来了机遇和挑战。研究结果还表明,ICT SW的进步会加剧经济体系内部的不平等,同时通过加速劳动力市场和工资/收入分配的两极分化,推动更高的经济增长效应。因此,我们的研究结果表明,决策者应制定有针对性的政策选择,以缓解信息通信技术特定技术进步带来的结构性问题和扩大收入差距,从而实现经济包容性。
{"title":"THE SHRINKING MIDDLE: EXPLORING THE NEXUS BETWEEN INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY, GROWTH, AND INEQUALITY","authors":"Yeongjun Yeo, Won-Sik Hwang, Jeong-dong Lee","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.18713","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18713","url":null,"abstract":"To implement specific actions to respond to challenges accompanied by technological advances, it is essential to realize the foreseen future at different levels. This study aims to generate the forecasts of different prospects of different industries, labor market, and households, depending on the pervasiveness of the information and communication (ICT) software (SW) in production. For the analysis, we propose a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that explicitly incorporates diverse impact channels induced by ICT SW investments. Our simulation results suggest that the development of ICT SW technology can bring about both opportunities and challenges in the economic system. The results also show that advancements in ICT SW can aggravate inequalities within the economic system, while driving higher economic growth effects by accelerating the polarization of the labor market and wages/income distributions. Accordingly, our results suggest that policymakers should formulate tailored policy options to mitigate structural problems and widen income disparities driven by ICT-specific technological advances to achieve economic inclusiveness.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84700847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
THE CYCLICAL BEHAVIOUR OF FISCAL POLICY: ARE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DIFFERENT, AND DO INSTITUTIONS MATTER? 财政政策的周期性行为:发展中国家不同吗?制度重要吗?
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-12 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2023.18709
M. Mackiewicz
The available empirical evidence shows that fiscal authorities commonly revert to procyclical fiscal policies instead of following the normative prescription of budgetary countercyclicality. The available empirical studies suggest that this phenomenon may be attributed to weak fiscal institutions. Hence, it is often advocated that strengthening institutions in the developing countries is a reliable way to improve the cyclical properties of fiscal policy. In this paper, we challenge this view by showing that the impact of institutions on the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy is not uniform across all countries and differs significantly between advanced economies and the developing ones. In the latter, the impact of institutions on the quality of fiscal policy proves to be weak, which is in stark contrast to the strong relationship observed in developed economies. This surprising result suggests that the focus on improving institutional quality may be of little help as a tool to increase the countercyclicality of fiscal policy in the developing economies.
现有的经验证据表明,财政当局通常会回归顺周期财政政策,而不是遵循预算反周期的规范处方。现有的实证研究表明,这一现象可能归因于财政制度薄弱。因此,人们经常主张,加强发展中国家的制度是改善财政政策周期性特性的可靠途径。在本文中,我们通过展示制度对财政政策周期性行为的影响在所有国家并不统一,并且在发达经济体和发展中经济体之间存在显着差异来挑战这一观点。在后者中,制度对财政政策质量的影响被证明是微弱的,这与发达经济体中观察到的强烈关系形成鲜明对比。这一令人惊讶的结果表明,把重点放在提高制度质量上,可能无助于提高发展中经济体财政政策的逆周期性。
{"title":"THE CYCLICAL BEHAVIOUR OF FISCAL POLICY: ARE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DIFFERENT, AND DO INSTITUTIONS MATTER?","authors":"M. Mackiewicz","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.18709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18709","url":null,"abstract":"The available empirical evidence shows that fiscal authorities commonly revert to procyclical fiscal policies instead of following the normative prescription of budgetary countercyclicality. The available empirical studies suggest that this phenomenon may be attributed to weak fiscal institutions. Hence, it is often advocated that strengthening institutions in the developing countries is a reliable way to improve the cyclical properties of fiscal policy. In this paper, we challenge this view by showing that the impact of institutions on the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy is not uniform across all countries and differs significantly between advanced economies and the developing ones. In the latter, the impact of institutions on the quality of fiscal policy proves to be weak, which is in stark contrast to the strong relationship observed in developed economies. This surprising result suggests that the focus on improving institutional quality may be of little help as a tool to increase the countercyclicality of fiscal policy in the developing economies.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88596406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
WHAT DRIVES CHINA’S LONG-TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH TREND? A RE-MEASUREMENT BASED ON A TIME-VARYING MIXED-FREQUENCY DYNAMIC FACTOR MODEL 中国经济长期增长趋势的驱动因素是什么?基于时变混频动态因子模型的重测
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-12 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2023.18705
Dayu Liu, Bin Xu, Yang Song, Qiaoru Wang
The unprecedented downward pressure of China’s economic growth trend raises several questions, including what the current level of China’s long-term economic growth trend is, and what drives and how to inhibit the downward trend. Therefore, we develop a time-varying mixedfrequency dynamic factor model using data with different start dates to measure the trend, and perform a real-time decomposition of changes in the trend. We find that the trend has entered a downward stage since 2007, left a high-speed phase since 2012, and stepped in an accelerated downward stage since 2018. The current level of the trend is about 4%. However, the lower limit of the 90% confidence interval is below 2%, which is lower than natural rate level. Additionally, decelerated capital deepening, diminishing demographic dividend and technological recession all drive the downward trend. Compared to the relatively weak push-down effects of capital deepening and demographic dividend that are less than two percentage points, the downward trend is mainly driven by technological recession. Given that technological progress is unlikely to improve significantly in the short run, mitigating the mismatch between technological progress and obsolete capital, revitalizing existing capital stock, and increasing the efficiency of technology utilization become more feasible means.
中国经济增长趋势前所未有的下行压力引发了几个问题,包括中国长期经济增长趋势的当前水平是什么,是什么驱动和如何抑制下行趋势。因此,我们开发了一个时变混合频率动态因子模型,使用不同开始日期的数据来测量趋势,并对趋势变化进行实时分解。我们发现,自2007年以来,这一趋势进入了下行阶段,2012年以来,这一趋势离开了高速阶段,2018年以来,这一趋势进入了加速下行阶段。目前的趋势水平约为4%。然而,90%置信区间的下限低于2%,低于自然比率水平。此外,资本深化减速、人口红利减少和技术衰退都推动了下降趋势。相比资本深化和人口红利的下推效应相对较弱,均不足2个百分点,下降趋势主要由技术衰退驱动。鉴于技术进步在短期内不太可能有明显的改善,缓解技术进步与过时资本的错配,盘活现有资本存量,提高技术利用效率成为更可行的手段。
{"title":"WHAT DRIVES CHINA’S LONG-TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH TREND? A RE-MEASUREMENT BASED ON A TIME-VARYING MIXED-FREQUENCY DYNAMIC FACTOR MODEL","authors":"Dayu Liu, Bin Xu, Yang Song, Qiaoru Wang","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.18705","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18705","url":null,"abstract":"The unprecedented downward pressure of China’s economic growth trend raises several questions, including what the current level of China’s long-term economic growth trend is, and what drives and how to inhibit the downward trend. Therefore, we develop a time-varying mixedfrequency dynamic factor model using data with different start dates to measure the trend, and perform a real-time decomposition of changes in the trend. We find that the trend has entered a downward stage since 2007, left a high-speed phase since 2012, and stepped in an accelerated downward stage since 2018. The current level of the trend is about 4%. However, the lower limit of the 90% confidence interval is below 2%, which is lower than natural rate level. Additionally, decelerated capital deepening, diminishing demographic dividend and technological recession all drive the downward trend. Compared to the relatively weak push-down effects of capital deepening and demographic dividend that are less than two percentage points, the downward trend is mainly driven by technological recession. Given that technological progress is unlikely to improve significantly in the short run, mitigating the mismatch between technological progress and obsolete capital, revitalizing existing capital stock, and increasing the efficiency of technology utilization become more feasible means.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"67 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86031710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
ON THE ACCESSIBILITY OF FINANCIAL SERVICES AND INCOME INEQUALITY: AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE 金融服务可及性与收入不平等:国际视角
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-12 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2023.18722
Yifei Fu, Lu Liu
Income inequality has long been an important issue in development economics. Applying international data from 119 countries between 2004 and 2018, this study discusses the relationship between the accessibility of financial services and income inequality. Using the density of the bank branch network to represent the accessibility of financial services, we discover that income inequality is negatively related to the accessibility of financial services, especially in less developed countries and regions. In this nexus, the poverty ratio serves as an intermediary variable. The significance of the nexus is weaker in countries where fintech is more popularized, indicating the substitution effect between fintech and traditional banking services. Nevertheless, the substitution effect is limited, and bank branches will keep playing an important role in delivering financial services. For countries with inadequate banking services, bank branches should be increased to encourage residents to participate in the financial system, while it is no longer necessary to add a large number of branches in countries where fintech has been popularized. Faced with the trend of financial digitalization and the economic shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, banks should launch more online services and increase intelligent machines in the branches. By doing so, financial services are more resilient to social changes, so as to alleviate the inequality of income distribution in the long term.
收入不平等一直是发展经济学中的一个重要问题。本研究利用2004年至2018年119个国家的国际数据,讨论了金融服务可及性与收入不平等之间的关系。利用银行网点密度代表金融服务可及性,我们发现收入不平等与金融服务可及性呈负相关,尤其是在欠发达国家和地区。在这种关系中,贫困率是一个中介变量。在金融科技普及程度越高的国家,这种联系的重要性越弱,说明金融科技与传统银行服务之间存在替代效应。然而,替代效应是有限的,银行分支机构将继续在提供金融服务方面发挥重要作用。对于银行服务不足的国家,应该增加银行分支机构,鼓励居民参与金融体系,而在金融科技已经普及的国家,不再需要大量增加分支机构。面对金融数字化的趋势和新冠肺炎疫情带来的经济冲击,银行应该推出更多的在线服务,并在网点增加智能机器。通过这样做,金融服务对社会变化的适应能力更强,从而在长期内缓解收入分配的不平等。
{"title":"ON THE ACCESSIBILITY OF FINANCIAL SERVICES AND INCOME INEQUALITY: AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE","authors":"Yifei Fu, Lu Liu","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.18722","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18722","url":null,"abstract":"Income inequality has long been an important issue in development economics. Applying international data from 119 countries between 2004 and 2018, this study discusses the relationship between the accessibility of financial services and income inequality. Using the density of the bank branch network to represent the accessibility of financial services, we discover that income inequality is negatively related to the accessibility of financial services, especially in less developed countries and regions. In this nexus, the poverty ratio serves as an intermediary variable. The significance of the nexus is weaker in countries where fintech is more popularized, indicating the substitution effect between fintech and traditional banking services. Nevertheless, the substitution effect is limited, and bank branches will keep playing an important role in delivering financial services. For countries with inadequate banking services, bank branches should be increased to encourage residents to participate in the financial system, while it is no longer necessary to add a large number of branches in countries where fintech has been popularized. Faced with the trend of financial digitalization and the economic shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, banks should launch more online services and increase intelligent machines in the branches. By doing so, financial services are more resilient to social changes, so as to alleviate the inequality of income distribution in the long term.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80273491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
HOW TO MEASURE PROTECTIONISM IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN XXI CENTURY? THE REGIONAL BAROMETER OF PROTECTIONISM – CASE OF POLAND 如何衡量21世纪国际贸易中的保护主义?保护主义的地区晴雨表——以波兰为例
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-12 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2023.18345
A. Piekutowska, P. Konopka
The purpose of the paper is to present a methodology for measuring contemporary protectionism – based on data from Poland. In light of the difficulties in assessing all trade barriers, an approximation was proposed: the regional barometer of protectionism (RBP). Recognizing that 21st century protectionism is observable only to a certain extent, the research is based on data that reflect the level of this phenomenon – i.e., media releases as well as Global Trade Alert data. In constructing this barometer, the TOPSIS method (a Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution) was used. The RBP constructed (for 2009–2020) is the first regional barometer of protectionism. The results of the research reveal the level and dynamics of protectionism in the case of Poland. This RBP improves the methodology of foreign trade analysis by providing a thorough basis for further research into both the effects and causes of protectionism; this paper presents initial explanations for the latter. Furthermore, after the barometer of protectionism is constructed, trade barriers may eventually be included in further research for models designed to explain Polish trade.
本文的目的是提出一种衡量当代保护主义的方法——基于波兰的数据。鉴于评估所有贸易壁垒的困难,提出了一种近似方法:区域保护主义晴雨表(RBP)。认识到21世纪的保护主义仅在一定程度上可见,本研究基于反映这一现象水平的数据-即媒体发布和全球贸易警报数据。在构建该晴雨表时,使用了TOPSIS方法(一种通过与理想解决方案相似度来排序的技术)。构建的RBP(2009-2020年)是第一个区域保护主义晴雨表。研究结果揭示了波兰保护主义的程度和动态。通过为进一步研究保护主义的影响和原因提供全面的基础,该RBP改进了对外贸易分析的方法;本文对后者提出了初步的解释。此外,在构建保护主义晴雨表之后,贸易壁垒最终可能会被纳入进一步研究旨在解释波兰贸易的模型。
{"title":"HOW TO MEASURE PROTECTIONISM IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN XXI CENTURY? THE REGIONAL BAROMETER OF PROTECTIONISM – CASE OF POLAND","authors":"A. Piekutowska, P. Konopka","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.18345","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18345","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the paper is to present a methodology for measuring contemporary protectionism – based on data from Poland. In light of the difficulties in assessing all trade barriers, an approximation was proposed: the regional barometer of protectionism (RBP). Recognizing that 21st century protectionism is observable only to a certain extent, the research is based on data that reflect the level of this phenomenon – i.e., media releases as well as Global Trade Alert data. In constructing this barometer, the TOPSIS method (a Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution) was used. The RBP constructed (for 2009–2020) is the first regional barometer of protectionism. The results of the research reveal the level and dynamics of protectionism in the case of Poland. This RBP improves the methodology of foreign trade analysis by providing a thorough basis for further research into both the effects and causes of protectionism; this paper presents initial explanations for the latter. Furthermore, after the barometer of protectionism is constructed, trade barriers may eventually be included in further research for models designed to explain Polish trade.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86497360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
RISK MANAGEMENT LEVEL DETERMINANTS IN VISEGRAD COUNTRIES – SECTORAL ANALYSIS 维谢格拉德国家的风险管理水平决定因素-部门分析
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-06 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2023.18415
J. Bélas, B. Gavurová, M. Kubák, Andrea Novotná
Increasing competition has emphasized the need for creating and using more effective strategies at the level of SMEs to achieve competitive advantage. SMEs face higher risks in terms of the globalization due to the limited resources as well as size. The objective of the study was to examine the determinants of risk management with an emphasis on the sector specifics of SMEs in the V4 countries. This enables the quantification of sectoral differences in relation to the socioeconomic determinants. The research sample included 1585 SMEs from the V4 countries. The data obtained from SME managers and owners were processed using the descriptive statistics and logistic regression. The results of the analyses confirm the existence of differences across SMEs concerning the risk management, which are determined by the country in which a given company operates, industry, gender and age of its manager or the owner of the company. The results of the study provide a valuable platform for the development of systems to measure and assess business risks in companies and to set up training systems. It will also enhance the development of international and national benchmarking indicators and the creation of international databases for comparative analyses.
日益激烈的竞争强调需要在中小企业一级制定和使用更有效的战略,以取得竞争优势。中小企业由于自身资源和规模的限制,在全球化进程中面临着较高的风险。该研究的目的是研究风险管理的决定因素,重点是V4国家中小企业的部门具体情况。这样就可以量化与社会经济决定因素有关的部门差异。研究样本包括来自V4国家的1585家中小企业。采用描述性统计和逻辑回归对中小企业经营者和业主的数据进行处理。分析结果证实了中小企业在风险管理方面存在差异,这是由给定公司运营的国家,行业,经理或公司所有者的性别和年龄决定的。研究结果提供了一个宝贵的平台,以发展系统,以衡量和评估公司的业务风险,并建立培训制度。它还将加强制订国际和国家基准指标,并建立国际数据库进行比较分析。
{"title":"RISK MANAGEMENT LEVEL DETERMINANTS IN VISEGRAD COUNTRIES – SECTORAL ANALYSIS","authors":"J. Bélas, B. Gavurová, M. Kubák, Andrea Novotná","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.18415","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18415","url":null,"abstract":"Increasing competition has emphasized the need for creating and using more effective strategies at the level of SMEs to achieve competitive advantage. SMEs face higher risks in terms of the globalization due to the limited resources as well as size. The objective of the study was to examine the determinants of risk management with an emphasis on the sector specifics of SMEs in the V4 countries. This enables the quantification of sectoral differences in relation to the socioeconomic determinants. The research sample included 1585 SMEs from the V4 countries. The data obtained from SME managers and owners were processed using the descriptive statistics and logistic regression. The results of the analyses confirm the existence of differences across SMEs concerning the risk management, which are determined by the country in which a given company operates, industry, gender and age of its manager or the owner of the company. The results of the study provide a valuable platform for the development of systems to measure and assess business risks in companies and to set up training systems. It will also enhance the development of international and national benchmarking indicators and the creation of international databases for comparative analyses.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82063389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
期刊
Technological and Economic Development of Economy
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1