Using the policy package pilot implemented in Hubei Province, China, in April 2020 as a natural experiment, we use the synthetic control (SC) and synthetic difference in differences (SDID) methods to estimate the impact of the Chinese government’s support policy on the economic resilience and to analyze the mechanisms by which it impacts. This study finds that the policy package has contributed to the growth of economic resilience in the pilot provinces, with the policy package increasing the average economic resilience of the pilot provinces by 0.062 compared to their potential resilience. The validity and robustness of the above conclusions are objectively confirmed by multidimensional quantitative outcomes such as placebo tests, ranking tests, and replacements in calculating resilience. The mechanism analysis shows that the investment in real estate development, the stimulus for consumption, and the core industry development are virtual channels for the policy package to promote economic resilience growth in the pilot provinces. Moreover, traditional investment in transportation fixed assets plays a minor role. This paper quantitatively corroborates the academic idea that government governance capacity affects regional economic resilience (RER), and research can provide empirical support for regional economic recovery and policy support under a major crisis.
{"title":"IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT SUPPORT POLICIES ON REGIONAL ECONOMIC RESILIENCE UNDER THE COVID-19 OUTBREAK","authors":"Fei Fan, Zongyuan Weng, Jiahe Tian","doi":"10.3846/tede.2024.20397","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2024.20397","url":null,"abstract":"Using the policy package pilot implemented in Hubei Province, China, in April 2020 as a natural experiment, we use the synthetic control (SC) and synthetic difference in differences (SDID) methods to estimate the impact of the Chinese government’s support policy on the economic resilience and to analyze the mechanisms by which it impacts. This study finds that the policy package has contributed to the growth of economic resilience in the pilot provinces, with the policy package increasing the average economic resilience of the pilot provinces by 0.062 compared to their potential resilience. The validity and robustness of the above conclusions are objectively confirmed by multidimensional quantitative outcomes such as placebo tests, ranking tests, and replacements in calculating resilience. The mechanism analysis shows that the investment in real estate development, the stimulus for consumption, and the core industry development are virtual channels for the policy package to promote economic resilience growth in the pilot provinces. Moreover, traditional investment in transportation fixed assets plays a minor role. This paper quantitatively corroborates the academic idea that government governance capacity affects regional economic resilience (RER), and research can provide empirical support for regional economic recovery and policy support under a major crisis.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"59 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139384844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xiaofang Chen, Xin Chen, Ming Fang, Wenlei Xia, Yu Hu
At present, the research focus on Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) is mainly on the economic consequences of ESG performance, and research on the influencing factors of ESG overall performance is lacking. The top management team plays a decisive role in the decision of ESG investment. To improve ESG performance and promote sustainable development of enterprises. This research explores the influence of different types of top management team faultlines on the ESG performance by using the panel fixed effects model from 2015 to 2019 for the samples of 347 listed enterprises in China, and tests the moderating effect of management incentives. Results show that the relationship-type top management team faultlines is positively correlated with the ESG performance, whereas the task-type faultlines is negatively correlated with the ESG performance. Management compensation incentive will weaken the positive effect of the relationship-type faultlines on the ESG performance, and the moderating effect of the task-type faultlines on the ESG performance is insignificant. Management equity incentive will strengthen the positive effect of the relationship-type faultlines on the ESG performance and weaken the negative effect of the task-type faultlines. Our findings provide a new perspective for how to improve the ESG performance of listed companies by the optimization of corporate governance structure.
{"title":"THE IMPACT OF THE TOP MANAGEMENT TEAM FAULTLINES ON ENVIRONMENT, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE PERFORMANCE OF LISTED COMPANIES","authors":"Xiaofang Chen, Xin Chen, Ming Fang, Wenlei Xia, Yu Hu","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.19547","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.19547","url":null,"abstract":"At present, the research focus on Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) is mainly on the economic consequences of ESG performance, and research on the influencing factors of ESG overall performance is lacking. The top management team plays a decisive role in the decision of ESG investment. To improve ESG performance and promote sustainable development of enterprises. This research explores the influence of different types of top management team faultlines on the ESG performance by using the panel fixed effects model from 2015 to 2019 for the samples of 347 listed enterprises in China, and tests the moderating effect of management incentives. Results show that the relationship-type top management team faultlines is positively correlated with the ESG performance, whereas the task-type faultlines is negatively correlated with the ESG performance. Management compensation incentive will weaken the positive effect of the relationship-type faultlines on the ESG performance, and the moderating effect of the task-type faultlines on the ESG performance is insignificant. Management equity incentive will strengthen the positive effect of the relationship-type faultlines on the ESG performance and weaken the negative effect of the task-type faultlines. Our findings provide a new perspective for how to improve the ESG performance of listed companies by the optimization of corporate governance structure.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"25 26","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138946961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study aims to reflect the grey information coverage and complex interactions effect in digital economy development. Therefore, a multi-attribute decision making method based on the grey interaction relational degree of the normal cloud matrix (GIRD-NCM) model is proposed. First, the original information coverage grey numbers are transformed into normal cloud matrixes, and then a novel Minkowski distance between normal clouds is proposed by using different information principles. Second, the GIRD-NCM model is established according to the Choquet fuzzy integral and grey relational degree. Finally, the dynamic comprehensive evaluation of digital economy development in China from 2013 to 2020 is conducted. The implementation, availability, and feasibility of the GIRD-NCM model are verified by comparative analysis with three existing evaluation models. The empirical findings reveal a stable growth trend in China’s digital economy, with an annual growth rate of 7.87%, however, there are notable regional development disparities. The change in interaction degree has no effect on the rankings of provinces that are in the lead or have a moderately high level of digital economy development, but has a positive and negative impact on the rankings of these provinces with high and low levels of digital economy development, respectively.
{"title":"DYNAMIC MULTI-ATTRIBUTE EVALUATION OF DIGITAL ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA: A PERSPECTIVE FROM INTERACTION EFFECT","authors":"Qinzi Xiao, Mingyun Gao, Lin Chen, Juncheng Jiang","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.20258","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.20258","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to reflect the grey information coverage and complex interactions effect in digital economy development. Therefore, a multi-attribute decision making method based on the grey interaction relational degree of the normal cloud matrix (GIRD-NCM) model is proposed. First, the original information coverage grey numbers are transformed into normal cloud matrixes, and then a novel Minkowski distance between normal clouds is proposed by using different information principles. Second, the GIRD-NCM model is established according to the Choquet fuzzy integral and grey relational degree. Finally, the dynamic comprehensive evaluation of digital economy development in China from 2013 to 2020 is conducted. The implementation, availability, and feasibility of the GIRD-NCM model are verified by comparative analysis with three existing evaluation models. The empirical findings reveal a stable growth trend in China’s digital economy, with an annual growth rate of 7.87%, however, there are notable regional development disparities. The change in interaction degree has no effect on the rankings of provinces that are in the lead or have a moderately high level of digital economy development, but has a positive and negative impact on the rankings of these provinces with high and low levels of digital economy development, respectively.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"40 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138952421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Appiah-Kubi, K. Malec, Joseph Phiri, Mansoor Maitah, S. Kotaskova, Jiri Mach, J. Sirohi
Major international institutions like the World Bank, African Union, and International Monetary Fund have made the development of robust governance systems a “sacred utterance” since the 1990s. Our study aimed to refute this common thinking by examining how governance structures have affected the expansion of the financial market in 47 African countries from 2008 to 2019. Using the availability of venture capital as a proxy for financial market development, our article departed from existing literature which used stock exchange characteristics as benchmarks for growth in the financial market. The governance variables comprise the six global governance indices: control of corruption, government effectiveness, political stability, regulatory quality, the rule of law, and voice and accountability. The model’s control variables include GDP per capita, inflation, and trade openness. Our finding suggests that a great quality governance climate is significant in explaining the growth of the financial market in Africa using the generalized method of moments (GMM) methodological approach with corrected standard errors. Considering these findings, our research makes the case that solid institutional frameworks might encourage the degree of financial systems growth in Africa. Therefore, the financial development rate in the African region will be significantly influenced by improving the quality of governance through strengthening legal and institutional frameworks to facilitate financial inclusion.
{"title":"THE IMPACT OF GOVERNANCE STRUCTURES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN AFRICA: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS OF 47 AFRICAN COUNTRIES","authors":"S. Appiah-Kubi, K. Malec, Joseph Phiri, Mansoor Maitah, S. Kotaskova, Jiri Mach, J. Sirohi","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.20394","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.20394","url":null,"abstract":"Major international institutions like the World Bank, African Union, and International Monetary Fund have made the development of robust governance systems a “sacred utterance” since the 1990s. Our study aimed to refute this common thinking by examining how governance structures have affected the expansion of the financial market in 47 African countries from 2008 to 2019. Using the availability of venture capital as a proxy for financial market development, our article departed from existing literature which used stock exchange characteristics as benchmarks for growth in the financial market. The governance variables comprise the six global governance indices: control of corruption, government effectiveness, political stability, regulatory quality, the rule of law, and voice and accountability. The model’s control variables include GDP per capita, inflation, and trade openness. Our finding suggests that a great quality governance climate is significant in explaining the growth of the financial market in Africa using the generalized method of moments (GMM) methodological approach with corrected standard errors. Considering these findings, our research makes the case that solid institutional frameworks might encourage the degree of financial systems growth in Africa. Therefore, the financial development rate in the African region will be significantly influenced by improving the quality of governance through strengthening legal and institutional frameworks to facilitate financial inclusion.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"38 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138592422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Creative hubs are institutional organization of newly emerging creative industries. Economic activities associated with creative industries are very often business-oriented and strongly independent. However, there are often needs for public sector. The aim of paper is to analyze the situation in the Czech Republic and assess the involvement and benefits of the public sector towards the support of these business activities. Methodologically, the work is based on several approaches. Primarily, a database of Czech creative hubs was created as part of desk research. This was followed by quantitative questionnaire survey with representatives of creative hubs and qualitative research in the form of structured interviews with representatives of hubs and the public sector. It was found that without public finances and interest, Czech creative hubs cannot function in the long term. Financial support is therefore the most common form of public support. The main strength of hubs lies in the built community of members, offered services and networking. Conversely, the main weakness is the inability to secure sufficient funds and sponsors. Although public sector cooperation in the Czech Republic is still limited, many public representatives are beginning to realize the benefits of the creative economy and gradually implement it into policies.
{"title":"CREATIVE ECONOMY: SUPPORT OF CREATIVE HUBS BY THE PUBLIC SECTOR IN THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT","authors":"M. Chaloupková, Josef Kunc, Jaroslav Koutský","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.20136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.20136","url":null,"abstract":"Creative hubs are institutional organization of newly emerging creative industries. Economic activities associated with creative industries are very often business-oriented and strongly independent. However, there are often needs for public sector. The aim of paper is to analyze the situation in the Czech Republic and assess the involvement and benefits of the public sector towards the support of these business activities. Methodologically, the work is based on several approaches. Primarily, a database of Czech creative hubs was created as part of desk research. This was followed by quantitative questionnaire survey with representatives of creative hubs and qualitative research in the form of structured interviews with representatives of hubs and the public sector. It was found that without public finances and interest, Czech creative hubs cannot function in the long term. Financial support is therefore the most common form of public support. The main strength of hubs lies in the built community of members, offered services and networking. Conversely, the main weakness is the inability to secure sufficient funds and sponsors. Although public sector cooperation in the Czech Republic is still limited, many public representatives are beginning to realize the benefits of the creative economy and gradually implement it into policies.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"6 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138592594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Circular economy (CE) is a sustainable alternative to tackle global challenges like climate change, waste, and pollution. The relations, perceptions and behaviors of stakeholders in circular economic activities may form barriers that hinder the circular transition. The promotion of CE requires investigating the interactions and information flow between CE stakeholders from a network perspective. This study revisits the applications of social network analysis (SNA) in promoting CE. Related concepts of CE and the research contents of SNA are reviewed. A bibliometric analysis is conducted to provide a bird’s eye on the research status and trend. On this basis, we summarize the challenges of promoting CE and refine specific problems, around which we review the research status of network modeling methods and statistical measures, information diffusion models, mining methods of perceptions, and social influence analysis. This study outlines the pathways through which SNA contributes to promoting CE, such as through revealing the relational structure and characteristics of stakeholders, forming and changing perceptions of stakeholders, improving behaviors of stakeholders, and examining the development of CE. The lessons learned from the review and future prospects are extensively discussed in combination with the features of the information age from both theoretical and practical perspectives.
{"title":"APPLICATIONS OF SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS IN PROMOTING CIRCULAR ECONOMY: A LITERATURE REVIEW","authors":"Huchang Liao, Zheng Wu, Fan Liu, Chonghui Zhang","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.20104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.20104","url":null,"abstract":"Circular economy (CE) is a sustainable alternative to tackle global challenges like climate change, waste, and pollution. The relations, perceptions and behaviors of stakeholders in circular economic activities may form barriers that hinder the circular transition. The promotion of CE requires investigating the interactions and information flow between CE stakeholders from a network perspective. This study revisits the applications of social network analysis (SNA) in promoting CE. Related concepts of CE and the research contents of SNA are reviewed. A bibliometric analysis is conducted to provide a bird’s eye on the research status and trend. On this basis, we summarize the challenges of promoting CE and refine specific problems, around which we review the research status of network modeling methods and statistical measures, information diffusion models, mining methods of perceptions, and social influence analysis. This study outlines the pathways through which SNA contributes to promoting CE, such as through revealing the relational structure and characteristics of stakeholders, forming and changing perceptions of stakeholders, improving behaviors of stakeholders, and examining the development of CE. The lessons learned from the review and future prospects are extensively discussed in combination with the features of the information age from both theoretical and practical perspectives.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"226 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139226689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Poverty reduction is considered as the top priority of governments and international institutions. At the same time income inequality is a far-reaching concern especially in emerging nations. US former president even labelled income inequality and poverty are the challenges of our times. Theoretically there are different views on the impact of microfinancing and financial inclusion on income inequality and poverty, hence, it is interesting to evaluate these estimations in Vietnamese context from 1986 to 2020. The researchers have applied the Bayesian Auto-regressive Distributed Lags (BARDL) model and exposed that microfinancing, financial inclusion, educational loans increase income equality and reduces poverty. Based on the evidences, the paper implies that government institutions must focus on microfinancing and financial inclusion aspects to facilitate poor and boost prosperity which ultimately brings income equality.
{"title":"DOES MICROFINANCING, FINANCIAL INCLUSION, AND EDUCATIONAL LOANS ALLEVIATE POVERTY AND INEQUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM","authors":"T. K. Tran","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.20348","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.20348","url":null,"abstract":"Poverty reduction is considered as the top priority of governments and international institutions. At the same time income inequality is a far-reaching concern especially in emerging nations. US former president even labelled income inequality and poverty are the challenges of our times. Theoretically there are different views on the impact of microfinancing and financial inclusion on income inequality and poverty, hence, it is interesting to evaluate these estimations in Vietnamese context from 1986 to 2020. The researchers have applied the Bayesian Auto-regressive Distributed Lags (BARDL) model and exposed that microfinancing, financial inclusion, educational loans increase income equality and reduces poverty. Based on the evidences, the paper implies that government institutions must focus on microfinancing and financial inclusion aspects to facilitate poor and boost prosperity which ultimately brings income equality.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"21 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139251305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
High-quality innovation is an inevitable requirement for high-quality economic development, and an accurate grasp of the regional distribution characteristics of the level of high-quality innovation development (HQID) can better understand and simulate high-quality innovation. This paper constructs a dataset of high-value inventions based on the Chinese patent database using textual analysis methods and the criteria for High-Quality Inventions proposed by the State Intellectual Property Office, and explores inter-provincial variability and convergence by using the Theil index, convergence, and convergence. This paper finds that High-Quality Inventions are significantly and positively correlated with various indicators measuring the quality and value of patents. In general, the overall level of HQID is on an upward trend with clear differences among provinces, which shows a regional unbalanced but overall rapid development. From the regional differences of HQID, the regional differences of HQID have been narrowed, mainly within the region. In terms of the convergence of HQID, convergence, absolute convergence, conditional convergence, and club convergence exist nationally and within each region, which indicates that the gap between the national and regional levels of HQID has been narrowing over time. HQID has a positive promotion effect on the relationship between HQID and economic growth, economic growth rate, and total factor productivity. High-quality innovation can improve the quality of input factors, cultivate new dynamic energy for economic development, and then promote high-quality economic development. In the context of the shift of IP work from pursuing quantity to improving quality, the scientific understanding of high-quality innovation, the development status, and the differences of regional innovation high-quality development is of great significance for improving innovation quality and efficiency, and effectively supporting high-quality economic development.
{"title":"CHINA’S HIGH-QUALITY INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT FROM AN INSTITUTIONAL PERSPECTIVE: REGIONAL DIFFERENCES AND CONVERGENCE","authors":"Ken Cheng, Hongwen Chen, Fan Zhang, Meiyang Zhang","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.20214","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.20214","url":null,"abstract":"High-quality innovation is an inevitable requirement for high-quality economic development, and an accurate grasp of the regional distribution characteristics of the level of high-quality innovation development (HQID) can better understand and simulate high-quality innovation. This paper constructs a dataset of high-value inventions based on the Chinese patent database using textual analysis methods and the criteria for High-Quality Inventions proposed by the State Intellectual Property Office, and explores inter-provincial variability and convergence by using the Theil index, convergence, and convergence. This paper finds that High-Quality Inventions are significantly and positively correlated with various indicators measuring the quality and value of patents. In general, the overall level of HQID is on an upward trend with clear differences among provinces, which shows a regional unbalanced but overall rapid development. From the regional differences of HQID, the regional differences of HQID have been narrowed, mainly within the region. In terms of the convergence of HQID, convergence, absolute convergence, conditional convergence, and club convergence exist nationally and within each region, which indicates that the gap between the national and regional levels of HQID has been narrowing over time. HQID has a positive promotion effect on the relationship between HQID and economic growth, economic growth rate, and total factor productivity. High-quality innovation can improve the quality of input factors, cultivate new dynamic energy for economic development, and then promote high-quality economic development. In the context of the shift of IP work from pursuing quantity to improving quality, the scientific understanding of high-quality innovation, the development status, and the differences of regional innovation high-quality development is of great significance for improving innovation quality and efficiency, and effectively supporting high-quality economic development.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"339 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139277831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyses the recent evolution of the electricity price of one of the EastEuropean countries’ Balancing Markets (BM) – Romania, aiming to understand the prices trend and predict them in the current economic and geopolitical context. This is especially important as the electricity producers have to allocate their output between wholesale electricity market, ancillary services markets and BM targeting to maximize value and achieve a sustainable economic development. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an AI-powered electricity price forecast using several types of standout Machine Learning (ML) algorithms such as classifiers and regressors to predict the electricity price on BM. This approach, consisting of two steps, identifies the imbalance sign and significantly enhances the performance of the price forecast. The proposed method offers valuable insights into the market participants’ trading opportunities using two prediction solutions. The first prediction solution consists of averaging the results of five ensemble ML algorithms. The second one consists in weighting the results of the five forecasting ML algorithms using either a linear regression or a decision tree algorithm. Thus, we propose to combine supervised and unsupervised ML algorithms and find the fundamentals for creating optimal bidding strategies for electricity market players.
本文分析了东欧国家平衡市场 (BM) 之一--罗马尼亚--的近期电价演变，旨在了解电价趋势，并在当前的经济和地缘政治背景下对其进行预测。这一点尤为重要，因为电力生产商必须在电力批发市场、辅助服务市场和 BM 目标市场之间分配其产出，以实现价值最大化和经济可持续发展。因此，在本文中，我们提出了一种人工智能驱动的电价预测方法，使用分类器和回归器等几种杰出的机器学习（ML）算法来预测 BM 上的电价。该方法由两个步骤组成，可识别不平衡符号并显著提高电价预测的性能。所提出的方法通过两种预测方案为市场参与者的交易机会提供了宝贵的见解。第一种预测方案包括对五种集合 ML 算法的结果进行平均。第二种是使用线性回归或决策树算法对五种预测 ML 算法的结果进行加权。因此，我们建议将有监督和无监督 ML 算法结合起来，为电力市场参与者制定最佳投标策略找到基础。
{"title":"IMPROVING THE STRATEGIES OF THE MARKET PLAYERS USING AN AI-POWERED PRICE FORECAST FOR ELECTRICITY MARKET","authors":"A. Bâra, S. Oprea, Cristian-Eugen Ciurea","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.20251","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.20251","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses the recent evolution of the electricity price of one of the EastEuropean countries’ Balancing Markets (BM) – Romania, aiming to understand the prices trend and predict them in the current economic and geopolitical context. This is especially important as the electricity producers have to allocate their output between wholesale electricity market, ancillary services markets and BM targeting to maximize value and achieve a sustainable economic development. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an AI-powered electricity price forecast using several types of standout Machine Learning (ML) algorithms such as classifiers and regressors to predict the electricity price on BM. This approach, consisting of two steps, identifies the imbalance sign and significantly enhances the performance of the price forecast. The proposed method offers valuable insights into the market participants’ trading opportunities using two prediction solutions. The first prediction solution consists of averaging the results of five ensemble ML algorithms. The second one consists in weighting the results of the five forecasting ML algorithms using either a linear regression or a decision tree algorithm. Thus, we propose to combine supervised and unsupervised ML algorithms and find the fundamentals for creating optimal bidding strategies for electricity market players.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"52 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139277557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines whether capital flow management (CFM) and monetary policies effectively reduce lending growth in emerging market economies (EMEs) in the presence of conventional and unconventional monetary policy actions undertaken by advanced economies. We apply a dynamic panel model with fixed effects to a sample of 24 emerging market economies for 2000–2021 using quarterly data and more continuous variables than in other studies rather than limiting the variability using proxies. Capital controls and macroprudential regulation, as CFM policy tools, moderate lending growth. This effect is particularly shown in countries with tighter monetary conditions. Our main findings highlight the useful role of coordinating CFM and monetary policies. This role stands for both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. Lastly, we find capital flow management and monetary policies manage to control lending in normal periods, but their coordination is less effective during crises and high volatility periods.
{"title":"INTERACTION OF MACRO-MANAGEMENT POLICIES TO REDUCE LENDING GROWTH","authors":"Chokri Zehri, Latifa Saleh Iben Ammar, Fatma Zehri","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.20164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.20164","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines whether capital flow management (CFM) and monetary policies effectively reduce lending growth in emerging market economies (EMEs) in the presence of conventional and unconventional monetary policy actions undertaken by advanced economies. We apply a dynamic panel model with fixed effects to a sample of 24 emerging market economies for 2000–2021 using quarterly data and more continuous variables than in other studies rather than limiting the variability using proxies. Capital controls and macroprudential regulation, as CFM policy tools, moderate lending growth. This effect is particularly shown in countries with tighter monetary conditions. Our main findings highlight the useful role of coordinating CFM and monetary policies. This role stands for both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. Lastly, we find capital flow management and monetary policies manage to control lending in normal periods, but their coordination is less effective during crises and high volatility periods.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":"11 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135479757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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