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MEASURING THE TECHNOLOGICAL COMPETITIVENESS OF ECONOMIES WITH THE PTCE METHOD: PRC VS. USA 2000–2020 用 PTCE 方法衡量经济体的技术竞争力:中国与美国 2000-2020 年的比较美国 2000-2020 年
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2024.21520
Adam Woźnicki, Remigiusz Gawlik
The relationship between China (PRC) and the United States (USA) has reached an unprecedented level of tension, mainly due to economic and technological rivalry. This study introduces an original quantitative method, the Pentagon of Technological Competitiveness of Economy (PTCE) to measure the technological competitiveness of both countries from 2000 to 2020. The findings reveal that while the USA remains a global technological leader, the PRC is emerging as a formidable challenger. Although the USA still holds the lead, signs of decline are visible, while the PRC exhibits a remarkable upward trajectory in technological competitiveness. The findings provide actionable recommendations for policymakers. To reinforce its position as the unrivaled technological leader, the USA should prioritize enhancing capabilities in areas such as patents, scientific articles and the export of high technology and STEM-related products. For the PRC there is an unprecedented opportunity to surpass the USA in technological leadership by strategic investments in research, innovation and human capital development. The novelty of this research lies in two main areas: (i) its significant contribution to competitiveness analysis through the introduction of the PTCE method and (ii) its provision of a comprehensive assessment of the shifting technological dynamics between the USA and the PRC.
中国(PRC)和美国(USA)之间的关系已经达到了前所未有的紧张程度,这主要是由于经济和技术竞争造成的。本研究引入了一种独创的定量方法--经济技术竞争力五角大楼(PTCE),以衡量两国从 2000 年到 2020 年的技术竞争力。研究结果表明,尽管美国仍然是全球技术领导者,但中国正在成为一个强大的挑战者。虽然美国仍处于领先地位,但衰退迹象明显,而中国的技术竞争力则呈现出显著的上升趋势。研究结果为政策制定者提供了可行的建议。为巩固其无与伦比的技术领导者地位,美国应优先提高专利、科学论文以及高科技和 STEM 相关产品出口等领域的能力。对于中国来说,通过对研究、创新和人力资本发展进行战略投资,在技术领先地位上超越美国的机会前所未有。本研究的新颖性主要体现在两个方面:(i) 通过引入 PTCE 方法,对竞争力分析做出了重大贡献;(ii) 对美国和中国之间不断变化的技术动态进行了全面评估。
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引用次数: 0
EXISTENTIAL RISK FROM TRANSFORMATIVE AI: AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE 变革性人工智能带来的生存风险:经济学视角
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2024.21525
J. Growiec
The prospective arrival of transformative artificial intelligence (TAI) will be a filter for the human civilization – a threshold beyond which it will either strongly accelerate its growth, or vanish. Historical evidence on technological progress in AI capabilities and economic incentives to pursue it suggest that TAI will most likely be developed in just one to four decades. In contrast, theoretical problems of AI alignment, needed to be solved in order for TAI to be “friendly” towards humans rather than cause our extinction, appear difficult and impossible to solve by mechanically increasing the amount of compute. This means that transformative AI poses an imminent existential risk to the humankind which ought to be urgently addressed. Starting from this premise, this paper provides new economic perspectives on discussions surrounding the issue: whether addressing existential risks is cost effective and fair towards the contemporary poor, whether it constitutes “Pascal’s mugging”, how to quantify risks that have never materialized in the past, how discounting affects our assessment of existential risk, and how to include the prospects of upcoming singularity in economic forecasts. The paper also suggests possible policy actions, such as ramping up public funding on research on existential risks and AI safety, and improving regulation of the AI sector, preferably within a global policy framework.
变革性人工智能(TAI)的到来将成为人类文明的一个过滤器--超越这个门槛,人类文明要么加速发展,要么消失殆尽。人工智能能力技术进步的历史证据以及追求人工智能的经济动机表明,TAI 很可能在短短一到四十年内得到发展。与此相反,为了让 TAI 对人类 "友好 "而不是导致人类灭绝,需要解决的人工智能协调理论问题似乎很难,也不可能通过机械地增加计算量来解决。这意味着变革性人工智能对人类的生存构成了迫在眉睫的风险,亟待解决。从这一前提出发,本文为围绕这一问题的讨论提供了新的经济视角:应对生存风险是否具有成本效益,对当代穷人是否公平,是否构成 "帕斯卡抢劫",如何量化过去从未实现的风险,贴现如何影响我们对生存风险的评估,以及如何将即将到来的奇点前景纳入经济预测。论文还提出了可能的政策行动建议,如增加对存在性风险和人工智能安全研究的公共资金投入,改善对人工智能行业的监管,最好是在全球政策框架内进行。
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引用次数: 0
TOWARDS A COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF DECENTRALIZATION: A MULTIDIMENSIONAL INSIGHT OF OECD COUNTRIES 对权力下放进行全面评估:对经济合作与发展组织国家的多层面考察
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2024.21518
M. Poniatowicz, Paweł Konopka, A. Piekutowska
The present paper introduces a novel methodology for analyzing decentralization across three dimensions: political, administrative, and fiscal. Considering the challenges in determining the degree of decentralization, we have constructed synthetic measures for assessing political (MPD), administrative (MAD), and fiscal (MFD) decentralization employing the TOPSIS method (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution). The use of this method allowed the creation of a linear rank of OECD countries. Furthermore, on the basis of constructed synthetic measures and utilizing the k-means clustering method, we also constructed a non-linear grouping of those countries. This approach enabled us to achieve the final objective of our research, the revelation of varied interrelationships among the different dimensions of decentralization in selected OECD countries. The combined application of the TOPSIS and the k-means methods enhances the methodology for analyzing decentralization by offering a multidimensional perspective. Given the potential repercussions of negative outcomes, such as overt or covert centralization, the findings of our study could turn out to be of significant relevance.
本文介绍了一种从政治、行政和财政三个维度分析权力下放的新方法。考虑到确定权力下放程度所面临的挑战,我们采用 TOPSIS 方法(通过与理想解决方案的相似性进行排序的技术)构建了评估政治(MPD)、行政(MAD)和财政(MFD)权力下放的合成指标。采用这种方法可以对经合组织国家进行线性排序。此外,在所构建的合成衡量标准的基础上,利用 k-means 聚类方法,我们还对这些国家进行了非线性分组。这种方法使我们能够实现我们研究的最终目标,即揭示选定经合组织国家权力下放的不同层面之间的各种相互关系。TOPSIS 和 k-means 方法的综合应用提供了一个多维视角,从而增强了分析权力下放的方法。鉴于公开或隐蔽的中央集权等负面结果的潜在影响,我们的研究结果可能具有重要的现实意义。
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引用次数: 0
INTERCONNECTIONS AND INTERDEPENDENCIES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND SHADOW BANKING SECTOR IN DEVELOPING AND TRANSITIONAL ECONOMIES 发展中和转型期经济体经济发展与影子银行部门的相互联系和相互依存关系
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2024.20795
Yao Liang, Xu Jin, Aslan Javid Azimzadeh
The research objective is defined as the identification and confirmation of empirical relationships between shadow banking activities and economic development in developing and transitional economies to establish a theoretical basis for minimizing potential risks associated with shadow banking. The methodological design is based on a quantitative approach, implemented through correlation-regression analysis and ARIMA forecasting methods. The research findings confirm Hypothesis 1: China’s shadow banking is closely interconnected with the country’s economic development. However, Hypothesis 2 (the reduction of shadow banking in China contributes to per capita GDP growth) is only supported for specific structural elements of shadow banking that contribute to economic overheating. In contrast, for other structural elements, such as entrusted loans, a strong direct correlation exists, promoting a positive impact of shadow banking on the country’s economic development. This highlights the need for a highly balanced state policy to minimize shadow banking risks. The research results can be valuable for professionals in public administration and academic researchers, particularly in terms of shaping future research directions.
研究目标是确定和确认发展中经济体和转型经济体的影子银行活动与经济发展之间的经验关系,为最大限度地降低与影子银行相关的潜在风险奠定理论基础。方法设计以定量方法为基础,通过相关回归分析和 ARIMA 预测方法实施。研究结果证实了假设 1:中国的影子银行与中国的经济发展密切相关。然而,假设 2(中国影子银行的减少有助于人均 GDP 的增长)仅在影子银行的特定结构要素导致经济过热时得到支持。相反,对于其他结构要素,如委托贷款,则存在很强的直接相关性,促进了影子银行对国家经济发展的积极影响。这凸显了国家政策高度平衡以最大限度降低影子银行风险的必要性。研究成果对公共管理领域的专业人士和学术研究人员很有价值,特别是在确定未来研究方向方面。
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引用次数: 0
WERE THE MANUFACTURING COMPANIES RESILIENT IN THE FACE OF COVID-19 OR DID THEY TAKE ADVANTAGE? 面对科维德-19,制造公司是顽强抵抗,还是占了便宜?
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2024.20806
C. Sabău-Popa, Luminița Rus, Adrian-Gheorghe Florea, O. Ban, Simona Dzitac, O. Marcu
The research paper aims to build a composite index of the financial performance of companies, to find if the impact of the COVID-19 crisis was significantly positive for most manufacturing companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange, and to look if the manufacturing companies were resilient being prepared with savings that could have mitigate the effects of this pandemic crisis. The results of the FE model selected show that 31.67% of the company’s equity variation is justified by the two independent variables, the stronger correlation of equity being with reserves. Based on the composite index of financial performance built, the manufacturing companies were grouped in three clusters: a cluster with low financial performance companies (z < 4), a cluster with good financial performance companies (4 ≤ z ≤ 8) and a cluster with high financial performance companies (z > 8). The third cluster groups the most analysed companies, on which the pandemic crisis had a positive impact, which achieved the highest financial performance; they are those companies that “take advantage” from the COVID-19 crisis, adapting their business strategy to the market conditions imposed. The article adds value to the specialty literature by building the financial performance’s composite indicator, clustering the manufacturing companies by financial performance’ Z-score.
本研究论文旨在建立公司财务业绩的综合指数,以了解 COVID-19 危机对布加勒斯特证券交易所上市的大多数制造业公司的影响是否显著积极,并研究制造业公司是否已做好准备,节约开支,以减轻此次大流行病危机的影响。所选 FE 模型的结果显示,公司权益变化的 31.67% 是由两个自变量引起的,权益与储备金的相关性更大。根据所建立的财务绩效综合指数,将制造业公司分为三个群组:财务绩效低的公司群组(z < 4)、财务绩效好的公司群组(4 ≤ z ≤ 8)和财务绩效高的公司群组(z > 8)。第三个群组是分析最多的公司群组,这些公司受到大流行病危机的积极影响,取得了最高的财务业绩;它们是那些从 COVID-19 危机中 "获益 "的公司,根据市场条件调整了自己的经营战略。文章通过建立财务业绩综合指标,按财务业绩 Z 值对制造业公司进行分组,为专业文献增添了价值。
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引用次数: 0
ROBOT ADOPTION AND URBAN TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA 机器人应用与城市全要素生产率:来自中国的证据
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2024.21102
Bowen Li, Cai Zhou
Industrial robots are having a profound and lasting impact on China’s economy. This research examines the deployment of industrial robots and their effects on urban total factor production from theoretical and empirical angles. It is created using panel data from 286 cities at the prefecture level between 2003 and 2017. It is found that: First, robot adoption promotes urban total factor productivity. Second, adopting robots has a more positive influence on urban total factor productivity development in western, underdeveloped, and less market-oriented areas compared to the developed and market-oriented areas in the east. Third, adopting robots could enhance urban innovation vitality, increase total factor productivity, boost industrial agglomeration, and improve technological progress or technical efficiency. Policy enlightenment provided by these findings can guide future technological advancements and promote high-quality city development.
工业机器人正在对中国经济产生深刻而持久的影响。本研究从理论和实证角度探讨了工业机器人的应用及其对城市全要素生产的影响。研究使用了 2003 年至 2017 年期间 286 个地级市的面板数据。研究发现第一,机器人的采用促进了城市全要素生产率的提高。第二,与东部发达地区和市场化程度较高的地区相比,西部欠发达地区和市场化程度较低的地区采用机器人对城市全要素生产率的发展具有更积极的影响。第三,采用机器人可以增强城市创新活力,提高全要素生产率,促进产业集聚,提高技术进步或技术效率。这些研究结果提供的政策启示可以指导未来的技术进步,促进城市高质量发展。
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引用次数: 0
INFORMATION AS A CONSUMER PROTECTION INSTRUMENT ON THE CONSUMER CREDIT MARKET 作为消费者保护手段的消费信贷市场信息
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2024.21496
Iwona Dorota Czechowska, Marta Paduszyńska, Ryszard Jędrzejczak, Adam Sadowski
The aim of the article was to assess the opinions of consumer credit borrowers on the information message provided to them by lenders at the pre-contractual stage. The opinions were presented in the context of the demographic characteristics of the respondents.The research question posed was whether, taking into account demographic characteristics, the assessment of consumer credit borrowers regarding the information message obtained at the pre-contractual stage varied. The research methodology included a questionnaire and Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI). For the information analysis, we employed the following non-parametric tests: the chi-square test of independence, the Mann–Whitney U test and the Kruskal–Wallis H test. No significant differences were observed in all the parameters of the assessment of the information message, which means that the answer to the research question was negative. The findings suggest that even though borrowers may positively assess the compliance with the information obligations by lenders, it does not mean that all credit decisions made were rational and appropriate to their financial situation. Our study focused on the consumer protection and employed non-parametric tests to analyze the consumer credit borrowers’ assessment of the information provided to them by lenders.
文章旨在评估消费信贷借款人对贷款人在合同签订前阶段向其提供的信息的看法。所提出的研究问题是,考虑到人口统计特征,消费信贷借款人对合同签订前阶段所获信息的评价是否有所不同。研究方法包括问卷调查和计算机辅助电话访问(CATI)。在信息分析中,我们采用了以下非参数检验方法:独立的卡方检验、曼-惠特尼 U 检验和 Kruskal-Wallis H 检验。在所有信息评估参数中均未发现明显差异,这意味着研究问题的答案是否定的。研究结果表明,尽管借款人可能会对贷款人履行信息义务的情况给予积极评价,但这并不意味着借款人做出的所有信贷决定都是理性的、符合其财务状况的。我们的研究侧重于消费者保护,并采用非参数检验来分析消费信贷借款人对贷款人向其提供的信息的评价。
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引用次数: 0
A STATE-OF-THE-ART REVIEW OF THE BWM METHOD AND FUTURE RESEARCH AGENDA 对生物量监测方法和未来研究议程的最新回顾
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2024.20761
F. Ecer
The superiority of BWM over other weighting methods for obtaining the weight values of the attributes is that it achieves high-confidence results with a reasonable number of pairwise comparisons. Although the best-worst method (BWM) is a well-known multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method that has been successfully utilized in almost all scientific areas to solve challenging real-life problems, no research has comprehensively examined the state-of-the-art in this regard. The present study depicts a detailed overview of publications concerned with BWM during the period 2015–2022. Based on the information obtained from the Scopus database, this work presents a big picture of current research on BWM. In other words, this paper analyzes the existing literature about BWM and identifies thematic contexts, application areas, emerging trends, and remaining research gaps to shed light on future research agendas aligning with those gaps. Further, the most recent BWM research is analyzed in the top ten scientific areas, from engineering to materials science. “Engineering”, “computer science”, and “business, management, and accounting” are the hottest fields of BWM research. China is the most active country regarding “engineering” and “computer science”, whereas India is the leader in “business, management, and accounting”. The study also reveals that there are still many research gaps in BWM research. The big picture taken in this study will not only showcase the current situation of BWM research but will also positively impact the direction and quality of new research.
与其他获取属性权重值的加权方法相比,最佳和最差法的优越性在于它能在合理的成对比较次数下获得高置信度的结果。尽管最佳-最差法(BWM)是一种著名的多标准决策(MCDM)方法,已成功应用于几乎所有科学领域,以解决具有挑战性的现实问题,但目前还没有研究全面考察过这方面的最新进展。本研究详细概述了 2015-2022 年期间有关生物武器管理的出版物。基于从 Scopus 数据库中获取的信息,本研究展现了当前生物武器管理研究的全貌。换句话说,本文分析了有关生物武器管理的现有文献,并确定了主题背景、应用领域、新兴趋势和剩余研究缺口,以阐明与这些缺口相一致的未来研究议程。此外,本文还分析了从工程学到材料科学的十大科学领域中最新的生物预警机制研究。"工程学"、"计算机科学 "和 "商业、管理和会计 "是生物预警机制研究的热门领域。中国是 "工程 "和 "计算机科学 "领域最活跃的国家,而印度则是 "商业、管理和会计 "领域的领头羊。本研究还揭示了在生物武 器学研究方面仍存在许多研究空白。本研究的全貌不仅展示了生物武 器学研究的现状,还将对新研究的方向和质量产生积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
THE IMPACT OF DIGITAL DISINFORMATION ON QUALITY OF LIFE: A FUZZY MODEL ASSESSMENT 数字虚假信息对生活质量的影响:模糊模型评估
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2024.21577
Beáta Gavurová, Václav Moravec, Nik Hynek, M. Miovský, Volodymyr Polishchuk, R. Gabrhelík, Miroslav Barták, Benjamin Petruželka, Lenka Stastna
Quality of Life (QoL) is a multifaceted concept encompassing economic, social, environmental, psychological, and physical dimensions of an individual’s life, including personal living conditions, happiness, well-being, and life satisfaction. As a vital criterion for sustainable development and active social policy in countries, QoL has been significantly influenced by the dynamic technological evolution of social media. However, the comprehensive impact of social media, including its role in disseminating disinformation – a major social and socio-economic concern – on QoL remains underexplored. This research aims to develop a novel fuzzy model to assess the level of disinformation on digital platforms and its correlation with the population’s QoL. Employing a mathematical approach rooted in expert evaluation, this study leverages intellectual knowledge analysis and fuzzy set theory. Grounded in data from real respondents and knowledge-based models, this study pioneers an information model to evaluate inhabitants’ QoL, incorporating factors such as financial concerns, perception of disinformation, and its influence on digital platforms. The fuzzy estimation model, verified with data from 3,036 respondents, quantitatively assesses citizens’ QoL. An illustrative application of the model demonstrates its effectiveness. The findings are particularly valuable for policymakers, experts in economic and innovative development, aiding the creation of regulatory and monitoring mechanisms to foster sustainable economic growth and devise effective development strategies.
生活质量(QoL)是一个多层面的概念,涵盖个人生活的经济、社会、环境、心理和生理层面,包括个人生活条件、幸福感、福祉和生活满意度。作为各国可持续发展和积极社会政策的重要标准,社交媒体的动态技术发展对 QoL 产生了重大影响。然而,社交媒体对 QoL 的综合影响,包括其在传播虚假信息方面的作用(这是一个主要的社会和社会经济问题),仍未得到充分探索。本研究旨在开发一种新型模糊模型,以评估数字平台上的虚假信息水平及其与人口 QoL 的相关性。本研究采用植根于专家评估的数学方法,利用知识分析和模糊集理论。本研究以真实受访者的数据和基于知识的模型为基础,开创了一种评估居民 QoL 的信息模型,将经济问题、对虚假信息的感知及其对数字平台的影响等因素纳入其中。该模糊估算模型通过对 3,036 名受访者的数据进行验证,对公民的 QoL 进行了定量评估。该模型的示例应用证明了其有效性。研究结果对政策制定者、经济和创新发展专家特别有价值,有助于建立监管和监测机制,促进可持续经济增长,制定有效的发展战略。
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引用次数: 0
FACTORS INFLUENCING FOLLOW-ON PUBLIC OFFERING OF SHIPPNG COMPANIES FROM INVESTOR PERSPECTIVE – A HYBRID MULTIPLE-CRITERIA DECISION-MAKING APPROACH 从投资者角度看影响航运公司后续公开发行股票的因素--一种混合多重标准决策方法
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2024.20644
A. J. Lin, Sun-Weng Huang, Hai-Yen Chang, Jiuh-Biing Sheu, Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng Tzeng
The shipping industry transports nearly 80% of the goods worldwide and requires large funding. The shipping industry shifted from debt to equity as the source of funding in the last decade. Because most shipping companies already had their initial public offering before 2013, these companies tend to engage in follow-on equity offerings (FPO). However, the challenge faced by the shipping companies is the lack of knowledge on successful FPO. The purpose of this study is to identify the most influential factors affecting shipping companies’ FPO from the investor perspective. This research applies a hybrid multiple-criteria decision-making model integrating the fuzzy-Delphi method and Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory, processing survey responses covering four dimensions and 16 criteria from 33 investment experts. The results show that financial indicator is the primary cause affecting offering condition, technical indicators. An increase in earnings per share would help the financial performance of the shipping companies to appear most attractive to investors.
航运业运输全球近 80% 的货物,需要大量资金。近十年来,航运业的资金来源已从债务转向股权。由于大多数航运公司在 2013 年之前已经完成了首次公开募股,因此这些公司倾向于进行后续股票发行(FPO)。然而,航运公司面临的挑战是对成功的 FPO 缺乏了解。本研究旨在从投资者的角度找出影响航运公司 FPO 的最有影响力的因素。本研究采用模糊德尔菲法和决策试验与评价实验室相结合的混合多标准决策模型,对 33 位投资专家的调查回复进行了处理,涵盖 4 个维度和 16 个标准。结果显示,财务指标是影响发行条件、技术指标的首要原因。每股收益的增加有助于提高航运公司的财务业绩,从而对投资者产生最大的吸引力。
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引用次数: 0
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