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Mitigating the labor displacing effects of automation through a robot tax: evidence from a survey experiment 通过征收机器人税减轻自动化对劳动力的替代效应:来自调查实验的证据
IF 3.3 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-14 DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2023.2293031
Emanuela Carbonara, Chiara N. Focacci, Enrico Santarelli
We examine how taxation might influence the relationship between automation and employment dynamics. The results obtained through a survey experiment with 2,000 entrepreneurs residing in the U.S. s...
我们研究了税收如何影响自动化与就业动态之间的关系。我们对居住在美国的 2000 名企业家进行了一项调查实验,结果表明,税收对自动化和就业动态之间的关系具有重要影响。
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引用次数: 0
Are temporary hires good or bad for innovation? The Italian evidence 临时雇佣对创新是好是坏?意大利的证据
IF 3.3 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-29 DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2023.2287443
Stefano Dughera, Francesco Quatraro, Andrea Ricci, Claudia Vittori
This paper investigates the relationship between temporary workers and innovation. We model a firm’s choice concerning: (i) the mix of temporary and permanent workers; (ii) the optimal level of tra...
本文研究临时工与创新的关系。我们对一家公司的选择进行了建模:(i)临时工和临时工的组合;(ii)最佳的……
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引用次数: 0
The impact of ultra-fast broadband on labor income: an event study approach 超高速宽带对劳动收入的影响:一种事件研究方法
3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2023.2275211
Laura Abrardi, Carlo Cambini, Lorien Sabatino
ABSTRACTWe investigate the impact of ultra-fast broadband connections on labor income and employment. We use panel data for Italian municipalities for the period 2012–2019 and we exploit the staggered roll-out of ultra-fast broadband started in 2015. Through an event study approach, we find evidence of endogeneity between ultra-fast broadband roll-out and labor market outcomes. To identify causal relationships, we use income from pensions to implement the estimator developed by [Freyaldenhoven, S., C. Hansen, and J. M. Shapiro. 2019. “Pre-Event Trends in the Panel Event-Study Design.” American Economic Review 109 (9): 3307–3338. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20180609.]. We find that access to ultra-fast broadband increases the income of the self-employed by 1.3% but has no impact on workers. Such an effect is mostly driven by a rise in self-employed workers, which is concentrated in urban areas, and in municipalities at the top and bottom quartiles of labor income.KEYWORDS: Ultra-fast broadbandfiber-based networkslabor incomeself-employed workersJEL CODES: L96D24D22 AcknowledgmentsWe would like to thank the Editor, three anonymous Referees, as well as Fabio Landini, Giovanni Cerulli and the participants to the SIE 2022 (Torino) and SIEPI 2022 (L'Aquila) for useful comments and suggestions to previous versions of the paper. We are grateful to Mario Mirabelli (TIM-LAB) and Francesco Nonno (OpenFiber) for providing us with access to and guidance on the broadband data used in this paper. The views expressed herein represent those of the authors and do not reflect in any case the opinions of the companies and institutions that provided the data and funding.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Indeed, starting in 2018, the Italian government has increased the financial resources from 0.5 to 7 billion Euros for UBB. In 2021, the Italian Government has decided to use part of the Next Generation EU funds to finalize the deployment of UBB infrastructure throughout the country, with around 3.6 billion Euros of public expenditure.2 The two papers also differ in the UBB variable used. While we consider a dummy variable describing the availability of a UBB access in a municipality in a given year, Abrardi and Sabatino (Citation2023) use the number of years since UBB was introduced in a given municipality.3 Higher broadband speed levels may also affect property prices (Ahlfeldt, Koutroumpis, and Valletti Citation2017) and firms' location decisions (Canzian, Poy, and Schüller Citation2019; Duvivier Citation2019).4 The Digital Agenda for Europe specifies the goals in terms of network coverage and service adoption for the whole European population. See https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/64/digital-agenda-for-europe for more.5 https://www.agcom.it/documents/10179/1571667/Documento+generico+08-11-2014+1415441917492/d34cc914-c150-4fd7-a383-a0c39c9d7670?version=1.16 Before 2015 only a few large cities
摘要本文研究超高速宽带连接对劳动收入和就业的影响。我们使用了2012-2019年意大利各市的面板数据,并利用了2015年开始的超高速宽带的交错部署。通过事件研究方法,我们发现了超高速宽带部署与劳动力市场结果之间存在内生性的证据。为了确定因果关系,我们使用养老金收入来实现由[Freyaldenhoven, S., C. Hansen, and J. M. Shapiro. 2019]开发的估计器。“小组事件研究设计中的事件前趋势”经济研究,2009(9):397 - 398。https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20180609。]。我们发现,超高速宽带的接入使个体经营者的收入增加了1.3%,但对工人没有影响。这种影响主要是由个体经营者的增加所驱动的,这些个体经营者集中在城市地区,以及劳动收入最高和最低四分之一的城市。关键词:超高速宽带光纤网络劳动收入个体劳动者jel代码:L96D24D22致谢我们要感谢编辑,三位匿名审稿人,以及Fabio Landini, Giovanni Cerulli和SIEPI 2022(都灵)和SIEPI 2022(拉奎拉)的参与者对本文以前版本的有用意见和建议。我们感谢Mario Mirabelli (TIM-LAB)和Francesco Nonno (OpenFiber)为我们提供了本文中使用的宽带数据的访问和指导。本文所表达的观点代表作者的观点,在任何情况下都不反映提供数据和资金的公司和机构的观点。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。注1事实上,从2018年开始,意大利政府已将UBB的财政资源从5亿欧元增加到70亿欧元。2021年,意大利政府决定使用部分下一代欧盟基金在全国范围内完成UBB基础设施的部署,公共支出约为36亿欧元这两篇论文所使用的UBB变量也有所不同。当我们考虑一个虚拟变量来描述某一特定年份某一城市UBB接入的可用性时,Abrardi和Sabatino (Citation2023)使用了自UBB在某一特定城市引入以来的年数更高的宽带速度水平也可能影响房地产价格(Ahlfeldt, Koutroumpis和Valletti Citation2017)和公司的选址决策(Canzian, Poy和sch<s:1> ller Citation2019;Duvivier Citation2019) 4。欧洲数字议程规定了整个欧洲人口的网络覆盖和服务采用方面的目标。更多信息请参见https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/64/digital-agenda-for-europe。5 https://www.agcom.it/documents/10179/1571667/Documento+generico+08-11-2014+1415441917492/d34cc914-c150-4fd7-a383-a0c39c9d7670?version=1.16在2015年之前,只有米兰和博洛尼亚等少数大城市享有由当地电信运营商实现的光纤连接Open Fiber部署计划可以在这里找到:https://openfiber.it/area-infratel/piano-copertura/.8出于隐私原因,当市政当局的特定收入类别的纳税人少于三个时,数据就会丢失。这解释了自雇收入的观察数字较低,因为在小城市,自雇工人可能少于三个。在计算总劳动收入时,我们把缺失值当作零结果不受不同聚类方法的影响由于我们的样本涵盖2012年至2019年,那么r={−7,−6,…,0,+1,…,+4}.11在意大利,养恤金福利以累积终身缴款为指数,以名义国内生产总值增长率(作为五年移动平均值)计算意大利政府仅在2019年之后引入了一些(有限的)灵活性,允许在特定年龄和缴款条件下提前退休(即工人必须不低于62岁,并已作出不少于38年的合格缴款)(OECD Citation2021)在大多数工业化国家,近几十年来工资的增长低于劳动生产率的增长,导致可归因于有偿就业的增加值份额下降(Istat Citation2018)。意大利的工资增长率特别低,从2006年到2015年,意大利的平均工资下降了约5% (Istat Citation2018)为了便于与基线模型进行比较,我们在附录表A1中报告了固定效应结果。可以看出,结果在质量上是相同的,但通常在量级上更大,与迄今为止检测到的正偏差一致。有趣的是,OLS的估计表明对人均自营职业收入的积极影响,然而,这并没有得到FHS的估计的证实。
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引用次数: 0
Innovation-driven economic growth under global turbulence: how countries strengthen innovation systems to deal with threats 全球动荡下的创新驱动经济增长:各国如何加强创新体系以应对威胁
3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2023.2276318
Valeriya Vlasova, Anastasia Saprykina
ABSTRACTThe role of innovation as a major force of economic growth is not to doubt. Despite this, geopolitical challenges in recent years pose difficulties for countries, especially for those who struggle with lower GDP per-capita, to enhance innovative performance and grow. Building upon the national innovation system concept and using the methodological framework of country-level composite innovation indexes, this paper aims to explore features of innovation systems inherent in lagging economies and their relevance for economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel dataset comprising the Global Innovation Index elementary indicators on 76 countries during 2015–2021, demonstrates the lower initial state, but faster development of innovation system components in lagging economies. Crucial to their growth is the external validation of national innovation efforts, proxied by international trade and foreign investment indicators. In addition, a sustainable economic growth requires balanced and synergetic development of all components and functions. Therefore, bottom-up approaches are needed to sustain further growth of lagging economies, starting with the provision of effective resource allocation, knowledge creation and its diffusion.KEYWORDS: national innovation systemeconomic growthglobal innovation indexcross-country analysislagging economiesSUBJECT CLASSIFICATION CODES: O11O36O47O57P51 AcknowledgementsWe thank the editor and anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments. We also express our gratitude to Dr. Vitaliy Roud (Zagreb School of Economics and Management) for his valuable suggestions on the initial stage of the study.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 The World Bank Income Group Classification is yearly revised, which makes it impossible to use the division for the longitudinal analysis. Hence, the authors used alternative approach to classify the countries, applied for e.g. in (Fagerberg, Srholec, and Knell Citation2007).2 The choice of sample median as a threshold to classify countries is dictated by the presence of some outliers in the data that would produce a less balanced sample, in case the sample average was used.3 The ‘oblique' rotation type is preferred over orthogonal rotations such as ‘varimax normalized' rotation, since the latter assumes that the underlying factors are close to be completely uncorrelated, which is a too strong assumption (Fabrigar et al. Citation1999). The scree plot analysis was further conducted in order to define the resulting number of principal components to be retained.4 The model considers both the initial value for the period and the growth rate of the corresponding NIS componentsAdditional informationFundingThe article was prepared within the framework of the Basic Research Program of the HSE University.
摘要创新作为经济增长的主要动力,其作用是毋庸置疑的。尽管如此,近年来的地缘政治挑战给各国,特别是那些人均GDP较低的国家,带来了提高创新绩效和增长的困难。本文以国家创新系统概念为基础,运用国家级综合创新指数的方法框架,探讨落后经济体创新系统的内在特征及其与经济增长的相关性。基于2015-2021年76个国家的全球创新指数基本指标的面板数据集的分析表明,落后经济体的创新体系组成部分的初始状态较低,但发展速度更快。对它们的增长至关重要的是,以国际贸易和外国投资指标为代表的国家创新努力得到外部认可。此外,可持续的经济增长需要各组成部分和功能的平衡和协同发展。因此,需要自下而上的方法来维持落后经济体的进一步增长,从提供有效的资源配置、知识创造及其传播开始。关键词:国家创新体系经济增长全球创新指数跨国分析经济体主题分类代码:O11O36O47O57P51致谢感谢编者和匿名审稿人提供的帮助。我们还要感谢萨格勒布经济管理学院的维塔利·鲁德博士在研究初期提出的宝贵建议。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。注1世界银行收入组别分类每年修订一次,因此无法使用该分类进行纵向分析。因此,作者使用替代方法对国家进行分类,例如在(Fagerberg, Srholec, and Knell Citation2007)中应用选择样本中位数作为对国家进行分类的阈值是由于数据中存在一些异常值,如果使用样本平均值,则会产生不太平衡的样本“倾斜”旋转类型比正交旋转(如“变大归一化”旋转)更受欢迎,因为正交旋转假设潜在因素接近完全不相关,这是一个过于强烈的假设(Fabrigar等人)。Citation1999)。为了确定要保留的主成分的数量,进一步进行了屏幕图分析该模型同时考虑了该时期的初始值和相应NIS组件的增长率。附加信息资金来源本文是在HSE大学基础研究计划的框架内编写的。
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引用次数: 0
The unequal implications of Industry 4.0 adoption: evidence on productivity growth and convergence across Europe 采用工业4.0的不平等影响:欧洲生产率增长和融合的证据
3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-13 DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2023.2269089
Fabio Lamperti, Katiuscia Lavoratori, Davide Castellani
ABSTRACTDo new manufacturing technologies of the Industry 4.0 (I4.0) boost TFP growth? By adopting a distance-to-frontier framework, this paper explores whether the adoption of (advanced) digital technologies affect the sectoral TFP growth rates across manufacturing industries of 14 European countries, during the period 2009–2019. We rely on a novel measure of adoption of I4.0 technologies (namely, advanced industrial robots, additive manufacturing and industrial internet of things), exploiting highly detailed (8-digit level) information on imports of capital goods embodying such technologies. Our results suggest that adopting new digital manufacturing technologies of the I4.0 brings quantitatively important and statistically significant contributions to sectoral TFP growth rates, although these are mostly concentrated in countries close to the technology frontier. In turn, these technologies seem to have hampered the process of convergence between European technological leaders and laggards over the last decade.KEYWORDS: Industry 4.0fourth industrial revolutiontechnology diffusiontotal factor productivity (TFP)technological convergenceJEL CLASSIFICATION: O11O33O47 AcknowledgementsWe thank the Editor and two anonymous reviewers for their most constructive and helpful suggestions. The authors are especially grateful to Marco Grazzi and to Eduardo Ibarra-Olivo for their valuable comments and suggestions, and to the participants of the Italian Trade Study Group meeting (Ancona, November 2020) and of the seminar at the Economics Department (University of Perugia, May 2021) for their comments on earlier versions of this paper.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Their disruptive potential results from their potential for a widespread application across every manufacturing industry due to their ‘versatility and complementarity’ (Eurofound Citation2018, 3). Furthermore, while we already acknowledged the impact I4.0 technologies have on manufacturing operations – e.g. higher operational flexibility, higher production efficiency and quality, lower set-up costs and integration along the value chain, resulting in higher productivity and better performance overall (see also Skilton and Hovsepian Citation2017; Eurofound Citation2018) – additional high-level impact resides in the world of work and, in general, the entire society. On the one hand, a general concern around the ‘risks of new monopolies, mass redundancies, spying on workers, and the extension of precarious digital work’ (Davies Citation2015, 9) emerges. On the other hand, this transformation calls for a policy debate on the upcoming changes in the task content and occupational profiles of manufacturing employment (Frey and Osborne Citation2017; Eurofound Citation2018).2 In this work, we focus on studies addressing the implications of ‘physical’ I4.0 technology adoption. We stress the difference between ‘physical’ (i.e. capital embodied) and ‘di
工业4.0的新制造技术是否促进了全要素生产率的增长?通过采用前沿距离框架,本文探讨了(先进)数字技术的采用是否影响了2009-2019年期间14个欧洲国家制造业的部门全要素生产率增长率。我们依靠采用工业4.0技术(即先进的工业机器人、增材制造和工业物联网)的新措施,利用体现这些技术的资本货物进口的非常详细(8位数水平)信息。我们的研究结果表明,采用工业4.0的新型数字制造技术对部门TFP增长率的贡献在数量上和统计上都很重要,尽管这些贡献主要集中在靠近技术前沿的国家。反过来,在过去十年中,这些技术似乎阻碍了欧洲技术领先者和落后者之间的融合进程。关键词:工业4.0第四次工业革命技术扩散全要素生产率(TFP)技术融合分类:O11O33O47致谢我们感谢编辑和两位匿名审稿人提出的最有建设性和有益的建议。作者特别感谢Marco Grazzi和Eduardo Ibarra-Olivo提出的宝贵意见和建议,感谢意大利贸易研究小组会议(2020年11月,安科纳)和经济系研讨会(2021年5月,佩鲁贾大学)的参与者对本文早期版本的评论。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。注1由于其“多功能性和互补性”,其颠覆性潜力源于其在每个制造业中广泛应用的潜力(Eurofound Citation2018, 3)。此外,虽然我们已经认识到工业4.0技术对制造运营的影响,例如更高的运营灵活性、更高的生产效率和质量、更低的设置成本和价值链整合,导致更高的生产力和更好的整体性能(另见Skilton和Hovsepian Citation2017;Eurofound Citation2018) -其他高水平的影响存在于工作领域,总的来说,整个社会。一方面,人们普遍担心“新的垄断、大规模裁员、对工人的监视以及不稳定数字工作的延伸”(Davies Citation2015, 9)。另一方面,这种转变要求就制造业就业任务内容和职业概况即将发生的变化进行政策辩论(Frey and Osborne citation, 2017;Eurofound Citation2018)。2在这项工作中,我们专注于研究解决“物理”工业4.0技术采用的影响。我们强调“物理”(即资本体现)和“数字”(即与软件相关)工业4.0技术之间的差异,因为这种特征代表了一个关键的区别,正如福斯特-麦格雷戈、诺迈勒和Verspagen (Citation2019)所观察到的那样。在此过程中,我们有意避免详细回顾有关工业4.0技术开发和创新对生产力影响的研究(例如为人工智能申请专利;有关最近的贡献,请参阅文丘里尼引文(2022),因为这超出了我们的研究目的。尽管如此,我们还是将读者引向Czarnitzki, Fernández和Rammer (Citation2023)以及m<s:1> ller, Fay和vom Brocke (Citation2018)的最新研究,他们分别探讨了采用“数字”工业4.0技术(即人工智能和大数据)对生产力的影响这一措施类似于Acemoglu和Restrepo (Citation2020)提出的机器人暴露指数,该指数用于衡量当地劳动力市场层面的机器人采用情况,并在几项实证研究中使用,以及Felice, Lamperti和Piscitello (Citation2022)和Venturini (Citation2022)提出的工业4.0技术生产的进口加权措施此信息是通过将与4.0相关的资本和中间产品的8位数CN产品代码与Prodcom分类中相应的8位数代码进行匹配来计算的。在Prodcom列表中,每个产品代码的前4位数字与生产该产品的4位NACE部门相吻合(Eurostat Citation2021)关于工业4.0采用措施的数据(即流量和库存、合计和每种技术的数据)可应要求提供我们没有使用部门购买力平价,因为在我们的分析中很难获得所有国家、部门和年份的购买力平价,这将使各国和部门之间的比较更加精确。然而,这对我们的工作来说是一个较小的问题,因为通过使用组内估计器,我们应该能够过滤掉跨国和跨部门的价格差异。 7国家名单:奥地利(AUT)、比利时(BEL)、捷克共和国(CZE)、德国(DEU)、丹麦(DNK)、西班牙(ESP)、芬兰(FIN)、法国(FRA)、英国(GBR)、意大利(ITA)、荷兰(NLD)、葡萄牙(PRT)、斯洛伐克共和国(SVK)、瑞典(SWE)制造业清单(NACE rev.2): 1 -食品、饮料和烟草(10-12);2 -纺织品、服装、皮革及相关产品(13-15);3 -木材和纸制品;印刷和复制记录媒体(16-18);4 -焦炭和精炼石油产品(19);5 -化学品和化学产品(20);6 -基本药品和制剂(21);7 .橡胶和塑料制品及其他非金属矿产品(22-23);8 -基本金属和金属制品,机械和设备除外(24-25);9 -计算机、电子和光学产品(26);10 -电气设备(27);11 -新机械和设备(28);12 -运输设备(29-30);13 -其他制造;修理和安装机器和设备(31-33)例如,参见Cardona, Kretschmer, and Strobel (Citation2013)和Schweikl and Obermaier (Citation2020)最近对ICT和生产力的文献调查第3节中描述的模型假设与方程(4)相关的不是技术前沿的身份,而是与前沿本身的距离,从而捕捉到技术追赶的潜力。由于该模型允许任何国家从边界国家内生地转变为非边界国家,反之亦然,只要求lnDTF术语与技术转让的潜力和从追赶中获得的生产力收益相关联。因此,在第(8)列中,我们测试了我们模型的另一种规范,在该规范中,我们使用两个国家的平均TFP水平来衡量lnDTF,这些国家的最高值作为边界,并通过计算ΔlnAF作为这两个国家之间的平均增长率虽然这样的结果可能与斯洛伐克和葡萄牙在一定程度上缺乏必要条件(例如,一定水平的吸收能力)有关,但丹麦的结果可能与该国的部门构成有关,与服务业相比,制造业的份额很小,而且在不断减少(类似于我们样本中的其他北欧国家,即瑞典和芬兰)我们遵循Roodman (Citation2009)指南选择仪器的数量根据Stehrer等人(Citation2019)描述的增长会计方法计算根据Acemoglu和Restrepo (Citation2020)的估计,AIR的平均价格在5万到10万美元之间,而根据我们基于全球所有主要AM生产商的数据和Senvol报告的计算,工业AM机的平均价格在20万到25万美元之间。Senvol的数据可在http://senvol.com/machine-search/上获得。就工业物联网而言,部署的总成本因行业和项目规模的不同而有很大差异。使用诺基亚物联网应用的总拥有成本(TCO)计算器,我们估计中型工厂的成本在160万至80万美元之间。诺基亚的物联网TCO计算器可在https://pages.nokia.com/T007K9-Compare-Wireless-Critical-Connectivity-Options上获得。
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引用次数: 0
How do local government fiscal revenue targets affect green technology innovation in China? 中国地方政府财政收入目标如何影响绿色技术创新?
3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2023.2267447
Jingxia Chai, Yu Hao, Haitao Wu, Yunke Yu, Nan Hu
ABSTRACTThe process of economic development in China cannot be separated from the ‘shadow’ of government target intervention. Under the Chinese system of fiscal decentralization, constraints created by local government fiscal revenue targets (CCFRTs) will have a series of influence on development economically and socially. Based on the fiscal revenue target data revealed in the government work reports of 281 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2019, this paper explores the influence of CCFRTs on green technology innovation (GTI). The findings are as follows: first, CCFRTs significantly inhibits GTI. Second, Spatial Durbin model analysis shows that CCFRTs has significant negative spatial spillover effect on GTI. Third, CCFRTs can affect GTI through the optimization of industrial structure, the level of human capital, and the degree of opening-up, technological progress and economic growth. Fourth, CCFRTs has an obvious threshold effect on GTI. Finally, the influence of CCFRTs on GTI has regional heterogeneity in central, eastern and western China. In the western and central regions, CCFRTs significantly restrains GTI significantly, while in the eastern region, CCFRTs significantly promotes GTI.KEYWORDS: Constraints created by local government fiscal revenue targetsgreen technology innovationinfluence mechanismspatial effect AcknowledgmentsThe authors acknowledge financial support from the Special Fund for Joint Development Program of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Education. The usual disclaimer applies. The usual disclaimer applies.Data availability statementThe data are available upon reasonable request.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 https://www.gov.cn/zhuanti/19thcpc/ (accessed on 6 December 2022).2 http://zhs.mofcom.gov.cn/article/zt_shisiwu/subjectcc/202107/20210703175933.shtml. (accessed on 6 December 2022).3 China operates under a unitary state system characterized by a hierarchical structure of state administration, encompassing five distinct levels: the central government, provincial authorities, municipal entities, county administrations, and township governance. According to China's current system, the national and provincial governments grant prefecture-level governments the authority to set their own fiscal revenue targets. Therefore, each prefecture-level city has its own autonomy in the formulation of fiscal revenue targets, and there is no centralized state intervention. This paper mainly selects fiscal revenue target data at the municipal level for analysis.4 The ‘yardstick effect’ refers to the basis for the assessment and promotion of officials in China's government structure, the possibility of promotion of local governments is getting smaller and smaller under the pyramid-type sector structure. In order to better win the trust and recognition of the superior government and gain promotion, there is a ‘contest’ between governments at the same level. There
摘要中国经济发展的过程离不开政府目标干预的“影子”。在中国财政分权体制下,地方政府财政收入目标的约束将对经济和社会发展产生一系列影响。本文基于2006 - 2019年中国281个地级市政府工作报告中披露的财政收入目标数据,探讨ccfrt对绿色技术创新(GTI)的影响。研究结果如下:第一,CCFRTs显著抑制GTI。第二,空间Durbin模型分析表明,ccfrt对GTI具有显著的负空间溢出效应。第三,CCFRTs可以通过产业结构优化、人力资本水平、对外开放程度、技术进步和经济增长等因素对GTI产生影响。第四,CCFRTs对GTI具有明显的阈值效应。最后,CCFRTs对GTI的影响在中、东、西部具有区域异质性。在西部和中部地区,CCFRTs显著抑制GTI,而在东部地区,CCFRTs显著促进GTI。关键词:地方财政收入目标约束;绿色科技创新;影响机制;空间效应。通常的免责声明适用。通常的免责声明适用。数据可用性声明在合理的要求下,数据是可用的。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。注1 https://www.gov.cn/zhuanti/19thcpc/(2022年12月6日访问)。2 http://zhs.mofcom.gov.cn/article/zt_shisiwu/subjectcc/202107/20210703175933.shtml。(于2022年12月6日访问)中国实行的是单一制国家制度,其特点是国家行政机构的等级结构,包括五个不同的层次:中央政府、省当局、市实体、县行政机构和乡镇治理。根据中国目前的体制,中央和省级政府授权地级市政府制定自己的财政收入目标。因此,每个地级市在财政收入目标的制定上都有自己的自主权,不存在国家的集中干预。本文主要选取市级财政收入目标数据进行分析“尺度效应”是中国政府结构中官员考核和晋升的依据,在金字塔型部门结构下,地方政府晋升的可能性越来越小。为了更好地赢得上级政府的信任和认可,获得晋升,同级政府之间存在“竞争”。因此,地方政府在确定财政收入增长目标的过程中,必然会受到邻近地区或经济发展水平更接近的地区的影响,即具有典型的“标尺竞争”特征中国东部地区包括12个省、自治区和直辖市,即北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东、广西和海南。中部地区包括山西、内蒙古、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南、重庆等10个省(自治区、直辖市)。西部地区由四川、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、宁夏、青海和新疆等9个省和自治区组成。作者感谢国家自然科学基金项目(72073010)、陕西省科技计划项目(2023-CX-RKX-030)、陕西省社会科学基金项目(2023D049)、浙江省科技计划项目(2022C35060)、北京理工大学科技创新计划项目(2022CX01013)的资助。
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引用次数: 0
Innovation, asymmetric information and the capital structure of new firms 创新、信息不对称与新企业资本结构
3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2023.2265821
Jonathan Taglialatela, Andrea Mina
ABSTRACTStart-ups are essential contributors to economic development, but they often face several barriers to growth, including access to finance. We study their capital structure in their early years of operation through the lens of Pecking Order Theory, exploring how the pursuit of innovation influences firms’ reliance on different types of finance. Panel analyses of 8273 German start-ups show that innovation activities are relevant predict start-ups’ revealed preferences for finance. Effects on the type and order of financing sources depend on the degree of information asymmetries specific to research and development activities, human capital endowments, and the market introduction of new products and processes. New firms focused on research and development activities and with better human capital are less likely to receive informationally complex finance such as debt and will rely relatively more on owner and equity finance. Mixed evidence is found, instead, on the role of new products or processes. Our results suggest that the traditional pecking order theory does not hold for new firms, implying that owner and external equity play a much more prominent role for such firms. Then, managers and entrepreneurs should consider specific sources of finance and financial instruments in light of their innovative activities.KEYWORDS: Innovationinformation asymmetriesstart-uppecking orderentrepreneurial financeJEL CODES: G32O16O30 Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 For a broader discussion on the relationship between Schumpeterian innovation and firm financial constraints see Hajivassiliou and Savignac (Citation2008), Hottenrott and Peters (Citation2012) and Lahr and Mina (Citation2021).2 Following this perspective, several contributions have explored the effect of innovation on investment selection behaviours in venture capital markets (Audretsch, Bönte, and Mahagaonkar Citation2012; Baum and Silverman Citation2004; Conti, Thursby, and Thursby Citation2013; Conti, Thursby, and Rothaermel Citation2013; Häussler, Harhoff, and Müller Citation2012; Hsu and Ziedonis Citation2013; Mann and Sager Citation2007; Lahr and Mina Citation2016).3 Before 2014 this database was known as KfW/ZEW Start-up Panel.4 The first two years of data (i.e., 2005-2006) only contain information about the firm’s cost, investments and revenues and exclude information on innovation. Therefore, they cannot serve the purpose of this study.5 We stress that our data indicate the types of financing obtained by firms, but contain no information on whether firms have applied for other types of finance and were rejected. In other words, without observation of finance-seeking behaviours, we can only observe the “revealed preferences” of firms.6 The results of simple Logit models are available upon request. All the statistical tests confirmed the better fit of all panel specifications.
摘要初创企业是经济发展的重要贡献者,但它们往往面临一些障碍,包括获得融资。我们通过Pecking Order理论的视角来研究企业早期运营的资本结构,探讨创新追求如何影响企业对不同类型融资的依赖。对8273家德国初创企业的面板分析表明,创新活动与初创企业对财务的偏好相关。对融资来源类型和顺序的影响取决于研发活动、人力资本禀赋以及新产品和新工艺的市场引进所特有的信息不对称程度。以研究和发展活动为重点并拥有较好人力资本的新公司不太可能获得信息复杂的融资,如债务,而将相对更多地依赖所有者和股权融资。相反,关于新产品或新工艺的作用,人们发现了各种各样的证据。我们的研究结果表明,传统的优序理论并不适用于新公司,这意味着所有者和外部股权在新公司中发挥了更为突出的作用。然后,管理人员和企业家应根据其创新活动考虑具体的资金来源和金融工具。关键词:创新信息不对称创业订单创业融资代码:G32O16O30披露声明作者未报告潜在利益冲突。注1关于熊彼特式创新与企业财务约束之间关系的更广泛讨论,请参见Hajivassiliou and Savignac (Citation2008)、Hottenrott and Peters (Citation2012)和Lahr and Mina (Citation2021)遵循这一观点,一些贡献探讨了创新对风险资本市场投资选择行为的影响(Audretsch, Bönte, and Mahagaonkar Citation2012;Baum and Silverman Citation2004;Conti, Thursby, and Thursby Citation2013;Conti, Thursby, and Rothaermel Citation2013;Häussler, Harhoff, and m ller Citation2012;《科学通报》2013;Mann and Sager citation; 2007;2 . Lahr and Mina Citation2016)在2014年之前,该数据库被称为KfW/ZEW创业小组。4前两年的数据(即2005-2006年)仅包含有关公司成本,投资和收入的信息,不包括创新信息。因此,它们不能服务于本研究的目的我们强调,我们的数据表明了企业获得的融资类型,但不包含企业是否申请了其他类型的融资并被拒绝的信息。换句话说,如果不观察企业的融资行为,我们只能观察企业的“显性偏好”简单的Logit模型的结果可根据要求提供。所有的统计测试都证实了所有面板规格的更好的拟合。
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引用次数: 2
Impact of technological change on growth trajectory of India: a multivariate-BVAR analysis 技术变革对印度经济增长轨迹的影响:多变量- bvar分析
3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2023.2267994
Debasis Rooj, Rituparna Kaushik
ABSTRACTThis paper examines the impact of technological change on Indian economic growth using the Bayesian Vector Auto-Regressive (BVAR) methodology. We use a comprehensive annual time series dataset covering the period of 1980 to 2019 on real economic activity, gross fixed capital formation, and employment. Technological innovation is measured by the number of patents filed by resident Indians. Technological innovation positively impacts both economic growth and gross fixed capital formation. Our findings indicate that increasing the number of patents leads to higher investment, which drives India's economic growth. However, our results also point towards the possible negative influence of technological innovation on the aggregate employment scenario in India. Our main findings are robust to alternative identification strategies and variable transformation. The asymmetric analysis also corroborates the positive influence of patents on driving investment and economic growth in India.KEYWORDS: Economic growthtechnological changepatentsBayesian VARJEL CLASSIFICATION: E44E31 AcknowledgmentWe thank the Managing Editor, Prof. Cristiano Antonelli, for providing invaluable suggestions in helping us improve the manuscript. We also thank three anonymous reviewers of our manuscript for their detailed comments and suggestions. We also thank Dr. Reshmi Sengupta, Dr. Nilanjan Banik, and Dr. Arnab Chakrabarti for their suggestions and comments in improving certain sections of the paper.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Antonelli and Scellato provide comprehensive discussions on the idea of "Innovation."2 Although the data is available until 2020, we restrict our sample to 2019 and exclude 2020 to avoid the problem that can arise due to the COVID-19 pandemic.3 Normal-Wishart prior constraints λ2 to the value of 1. We have estimated the baseline model with different set values for the hyperparameters. The finding suggests that IRFs are not qualitatively different due to changes in the values of the hyperparameters. However, for some choices, the confidence intervals become wider or narrower, and these are only indicative of the shape of the posterior distribution and have no statistical significance. Therefore, we can conclude that the findings from these specifications are robust to choices of different hyperparameter values for the priors.4 We have considered slightly lower values of the AR(1) parameter, such as 0.9 and 0.8, but it has a negligible impact on the results.5 The DIC value for our baseline model is -969.84.6 BVAR estimation is conducted by employing the BEAR toolbox in MATLAB developed by Dieppe et al. (Citation2016)7 Sims and Zha (Citation1999) assert that the traditional frequentist error bands may be misleading as they mix parameter location information with model fit information. The authors propose using likelihood-based bands and argue that 68% interval bands provide a more precise es
摘要本文采用贝叶斯向量自回归(BVAR)方法研究了技术变革对印度经济增长的影响。我们使用了一个全面的年度时间序列数据集,涵盖1980年至2019年的实体经济活动、固定资本形成总额和就业。技术创新是通过印度居民申请专利的数量来衡量的。技术创新对经济增长和固定资本形成总量均有正向影响。我们的研究结果表明,专利数量的增加导致投资的增加,从而推动印度的经济增长。然而,我们的结果也指向技术创新对印度总就业情景可能产生的负面影响。我们的主要发现是稳健的替代识别策略和变量转换。非对称分析也证实了专利对推动印度投资和经济增长的积极影响。关键词:经济增长技术变革专利贝叶斯VARJEL分类:E44E31致谢感谢主编Cristiano Antonelli教授为我们改进稿件提供的宝贵建议。我们也感谢三位匿名审稿人对我们手稿的详细评论和建议。我们也感谢Reshmi Sengupta博士、Nilanjan Banik博士和Arnab Chakrabarti博士对本文某些部分的改进提出的建议和意见。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。注1 Antonelli和Scellato对“创新”的概念进行了全面的讨论。“2虽然数据到2020年才可用,但我们将样本限制在2019年,并排除2020年,以避免因COVID-19大流行而可能出现的问题Normal-Wishart先验约束λ2到1的值。我们用不同的超参数设定值估计了基线模型。这一发现表明,由于超参数值的变化,irf在质量上并没有不同。然而,对于某些选择,置信区间变宽或变窄,这只是表明后验分布的形状,没有统计学意义。因此,我们可以得出结论,这些规范的发现对先验的不同超参数值的选择是稳健的我们考虑了略低的AR(1)参数值,如0.9和0.8,但它对结果的影响可以忽略不计我们的基线模型的DIC值为-969.84.6。BVAR估计是利用Dieppe等人(Citation2016)在MATLAB中开发的BEAR工具箱进行的。Sims和Zha (Citation1999)认为,传统的频率误差带可能会误导,因为它们将参数位置信息与模型拟合信息混合在一起。作者建议使用基于似然的频带,并认为68%的间隔频带可以更精确地估计真实覆盖概率。
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引用次数: 0
Firm survival and innovation: direct and indirect effects of knowledge for SMEs 企业生存与创新:知识对中小企业的直接与间接影响
3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-09 DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2023.2263371
Sergio Destefanis, Ornella Wanda Maietta, Fernanda Mazzotta, Lavinia Parisi
ABSTRACTThis paper explores the effects of innovation on firm survival by using data from a representative survey of small and medium manufacturing firms in the province of Salerno, Italy. We innovate upon the literature by (a) comparing the impact of different sources of internal and external knowledge (including universities) on the probability of firm survival; (b) assessing the mediating impact of the human capital of workers and entrepreneurs on learning from these knowledge sources. Finally, we measure the impact of different types of innovation on firm survival. Our evidence upholds the link between innovation and firm survival, particularly for product and organisational innovation. Results regarding the impact of different sources of knowledge highlight the roles of employee training, the human capital of entrepreneurs and workers and the productivity of university departments providing relevant knowledge. Other elements of external knowledge, such as proximity to the University of Salerno or being in the city of Salerno, are significant facilitators of survival only if mediated through high levels of the human capital of entrepreneurs and workers.KEYWORDS: Internal and external knowledge; absorptive capacitySMEsuniversity collaborationhuman capitalJEL CLASSIFICATIONS: L20O3D22I2 Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 There is a common presumption that firm survival is ‘good’. However the literature on firm exit emphasises the distinction between voluntary entrepreneurial closure and failure (Bates Citation2005; Coad Citation2014; DeTienne, McKelvie, and Chandler Citation2015; Headd Citation2003; Khelil Citation2016; Wennberg, Delmar, and McKelvie Citation2016).2 Hyytinen, Pajarinen, and Rouvinen (Citation2015) and Fernandes and Paunov (Citation2015) also apply probit models to the study of innovation and survival. Their analyses, however, do not allow for the joint determination of innovation and survival and hence do not yield estimates of the direct and indirect effects of innovation on survival.3 It is worth noting that in 2016, 93% of EU manufacturing firms had fewer than ten employees (Muller et al. Citation2017).4 Note however that Trushin and Ugur (Citation2021) find that firms in hazardous environments can mitigate the detrimental effects of these environments on survival through R&D expenditure.5 Interestingly, Holl, Peters, and Rammer (Citation2023) report a similar spatial range for German manufacturing firms in a related context (the impact of patents on innovation persistence).6 This finding is consistent with the theoretical model of Desmet and Parente (Citation2012), where a large firm size is essential for the introduction of effective cost-saving technologies.7 The survey was conducted by the Centre for Economic and Labour Policy Evaluation at the University of Salerno and funded by the Sichelgaita Foundation in Salerno.8 LMAs, akin to British travel to work areas, are
下面我们将简要介绍这些probit模型。根据一位匿名推荐人的建议,关于这些模型的进一步细节在补充材料中提供。16在所有情况下,平均VIF小于2.5,并且在所有方程中的大多数变量中也低于5(对于三个变量,它高于5但低于7.5)对于离散变量,直接效应和间接效应的总和不等于总边际效应,因为计算直接效应和间接效应的方法是为连续变量设计的,并与离散变量的一些近似一起使用众所周知,在自由度减少的情况下,极大似然方法会受到收敛问题的影响(参见Altonji, Elder, and Taber Citation2005)我们感谢两位匿名的推荐人提出这些稳健性检查的建议我们数据集的性质阻止了沿着Hyytinen、Pajarinen和Rouvinen的思路对风险偏好进行更深入的分析(Citation2015) 21我们尝试将企业家的高教育水平和毕业生工人的份额与所有可用的内部和外部知识来源进行交互,包括用于员工培训的假人、MIPAAF实验室、地区(控制与竞争对手和客户的重要联系)和大学部门的生产力。然而,为了确保更紧凑的展示,我们只报告与企业家的高教育水平或与毕业生工人的份额有重要相互作用的规范。
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引用次数: 0
Can the development of digital finance stimulate enterprise innovation? Empirical evidence from China 数字金融的发展能否激发企业创新?来自中国的经验证据
3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-05 DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2023.2266376
Kai Zhao, Haonan Shan, Zeping Chen, Wanshu Wu
ABSTRACTBased on the data of China A-share listed enterprises, this paper examines the actual effect and mechanism of the development of digital finance on different innovation behaviors of enterprises, by using the panel data model and regression-based mediation analysis. It is found that the development of digital finance not only promotes the R&D investment of enterprises but also improves the quantity and quality of enterprise innovation output. The incentive effect of digital finance on enterprise R&D investment is stronger than that on innovation output, while the incentive effect of digital finance on enterprise breakthrough innovation is stronger than that of incremental innovation. Both the ‘broadening’ and the ‘deepening’ of digital finance have a significant positive effect on enterprise innovation, while the ‘digitalization degree’ of digital finance has no significant effect on enterprise innovation, and even may hinder the improvement of innovation quality. The incentive effect of digital finance on the innovation output of state-owned enterprises is reflected in ‘quantity’, while the incentive effect on innovation of non-state-owned enterprises is reflected in ‘quality’. Digital finance can stimulate enterprise innovation by easing the financing constraints of enterprises, optimizing the government subsidy system, and improving the business environment.KEYWORDS: Digital financeenterprise innovationinnovation qualitybusiness environmentgovernment subsidies Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Additional informationFundingThis work was supported by Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation [Grant Number ZR2023MG075]; National Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Sciences of China [Grant Number 20FJYB017].
摘要本文基于中国a股上市企业数据,运用面板数据模型和基于回归的中介分析,考察了数字金融发展对企业不同创新行为的实际影响及其机制。研究发现,数字金融的发展不仅促进了企业的研发投入,而且提高了企业创新产出的数量和质量。数字金融对企业研发投入的激励作用强于对创新产出的激励作用,数字金融对企业突破性创新的激励作用强于增量式创新的激励作用。数字金融的“拓宽”和“深化”对企业创新都有显著的正向影响,而数字金融的“数字化程度”对企业创新没有显著影响,甚至可能阻碍创新质量的提高。数字金融对国有企业创新产出的激励作用表现为“量”,对非国有企业创新产出的激励作用表现为“质”。数字金融可以通过缓解企业融资约束、优化政府补贴制度、改善营商环境等方式激发企业创新。关键词:数字金融企业创新创新质量商业环境政府补贴披露声明作者未发现潜在利益冲突基金资助:山东省自然科学基金[资助号:ZR2023MG075];国家哲学社会科学规划办公室[批准号20FJYB017]。
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Economics of Innovation and New Technology
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