Economic Systems最新文献

英文中文

Inflation dynamics: Profits, wages and import prices 通货膨胀动态：利润、工资和进口价格

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-04-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101310

Ensar Yılmaz, Necip Bulut

This study adds to the ongoing debate over the rise in inflation in Türkiye during the 2021–2023 period, by identifying its root causes, distributive consequences, and the mechanisms through which inflation spreads. By adopting a framework that emphasizes the foreign exchange rate pass-through effect (cost-push) and distributive conflict, we investigate the role of profit-driven inflation, increasing profit shares, markups, and rising import costs. Specifically, we examine how escalating import costs can affect profit shares and spread inflation, even without a wage-price spiral. To explore these dynamics, the study uses descriptive statistics, sectoral data, and decomposition techniques to shed light on the drivers of inflation and its distributive effects. Additionally, the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) methodology is applied, leveraging quarterly data from 2013 Q1 to 2023 Q4. The results highlight that shocks to import prices have a substantial and persistent impact on inflation and profit shares, particularly between 2018 and 2023. In contrast, the effect of wages on inflation is found to be negligible throughout this period.

本研究通过确定通货膨胀的根本原因、分配后果以及通货膨胀蔓延的机制，为2021-2023年期间俄罗斯通货膨胀上升的持续争论增加了新的内容。通过采用强调汇率传递效应（成本推动）和分配冲突的框架，我们研究了利润驱动的通货膨胀、利润份额增加、加价和进口成本上升的作用。具体来说，我们研究了不断上升的进口成本如何影响利润份额和扩散通货膨胀，即使没有工资-价格螺旋。为了探索这些动态，本研究使用描述性统计、部门数据和分解技术来揭示通货膨胀的驱动因素及其分配效应。此外，采用结构向量自回归（SVAR）方法，利用2013年第一季度至2023年第四季度的季度数据。研究结果强调，进口价格的冲击对通胀和利润份额产生了重大而持久的影响，尤其是在2018年至2023年期间。相比之下，工资对通货膨胀的影响在此期间可以忽略不计。

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引用次数: 0

Welfare and equity impact of consumption tax policies: A micro-macro-economic approach applied to Italy 消费税政策对福利和公平的影响：应用于意大利的微观-宏观经济方法

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-04-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101309

Barbara Bratta, Silvia Carta, Paolo Di Caro, Marco Manzo, Carlo Orecchia

This paper develops a micro-macro modelling approach to evaluate the impact of tax policies on economic growth and equity. The empirical framework benefits from the availability of micro administrative data and incorporates household- and sector- heterogeneity, detailed information on the tax system, and tax evasion features. The application of the integrated model to a uniform consumption tax rate reform in Italy yields the following results. We find positive output consequences of the policy, though with sector-specific growth patterns. We also document negative impact on income distribution that varies across households. Our results suggest that when tax evasion is included in the analysis, the positive impact on economic growth is amplified, with major consequences on export-oriented sectors, while the negative impact on equity diminishes. The results are valid after performing different sensitivity checks and alternative integration processes. Finally, policy implications are discussed.

Data statement

Data in support of the findings of this study is available from the authors upon reasonable request and considering data disclosure policy at the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance.

本文发展了一种微观-宏观建模方法来评估税收政策对经济增长和公平的影响。经验框架得益于微观管理数据的可用性，并纳入了家庭和部门的异质性、税收制度的详细信息和逃税特征。将综合模型应用于意大利统一消费税率改革的结果如下：我们发现该政策对产出产生了积极的影响，尽管对特定行业的增长模式有影响。我们还记录了不同家庭对收入分配的负面影响。我们的研究结果表明，当分析中包括逃税时，对经济增长的积极影响被放大，对出口导向型部门产生重大影响，而对公平的负面影响减弱。在进行了不同的灵敏度检查和替代的集成过程后，结果是有效的。最后，讨论了政策影响。数据声明支持本研究结果的数据可根据作者的合理要求并考虑到意大利经济和财政部的数据披露政策提供。

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引用次数: 0

The effects of environmental taxes on environmental pollution in the member states of the European Union 欧盟成员国环境税对环境污染的影响

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101308

Snežana Ugrinov

This paper examines the effectiveness of environmental taxes as a potential instrument for mitigating climate and environmental problems. The relationship between environmental taxes and indicators of air quality and environmental protection is examined with a sample of 28 countries (26 member states of the European Union, Norway, and Iceland) in the period 1996–2022. The dynamic panel models are estimated using the system–generalized method of moments proposed by Blundell and Bond (1998), as it is suitable for addressing potential endogeneity issues. Empirical analysis reveals that total environmental taxes are generally associated with a decline in greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. Energy taxes appear to be the most effective type, as an increase of 1 percent in these taxes is associated with a reduction in total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 0.5 percent for three prior years. In particular, energy taxes are effective for decreasing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions as well for other kinds of emissions and air pollutants. However, there is not enough evidence to confirm the contribution of transportation taxes and taxes on pollution and resource use to an overall decline in emissions and air pollution. This study contributes to the literature by providing ex-post empirical evidence on the effectiveness of environmental taxes in reducing GHG emissions and improving air quality in several European countries.

本文考察了环境税作为缓解气候和环境问题的潜在工具的有效性。在1996-2022年期间，以28个国家（欧洲联盟的26个成员国、挪威和冰岛）为样本，研究了环境税与空气质量和环境保护指标之间的关系。动态面板模型使用Blundell和Bond（1998）提出的系统广义矩法进行估计，因为它适用于解决潜在的内生性问题。实证分析表明，总的环境税通常与温室气体排放和空气污染的下降有关。能源税似乎是最有效的一种，因为这些税每增加1%，前三年温室气体（GHG）总排放量就会减少0.5%。特别是，能源税对于减少二氧化碳（CO2）排放以及其他种类的排放和空气污染物是有效的。然而，没有足够的证据证实运输税、污染税和资源使用税对排放和空气污染总体下降的贡献。本研究通过提供一些欧洲国家环境税在减少温室气体排放和改善空气质量方面的有效性的事后经验证据，为文献做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Comparative fiscal governance policy: Evaluating the causal impact of fiscal councils on economic performance 比较财政治理政策：评估财政委员会对经济表现的因果影响

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101307

Ibrahim Alnafrah , Alexander Bogatov

This study examines the causal impact of fiscal councils (FCs) on economic performance using a panel dataset of 65 countries from 1990 to 2022. Employing dynamic Difference-in-Differences and two-way fixed effects models, we find that FCs significantly enhance GDP growth and reduce volatility in debt and inflation, particularly in environments with strong institutional frameworks. These results underscore the role of FCs in promoting fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stability, offering valuable insights for policymakers aiming to achieve sustainable development goals (SDG8). By empirically linking FCs to improved economic outcomes, this study addresses a critical gap in the literature and provides robust evidence for the effectiveness of FCs across diverse economic contexts. The findings highlight the importance of adopting FCs, especially in developing economies, to strengthen fiscal governance and foster long-term economic growth.

本研究利用1990年至2022年65个国家的面板数据集，考察了财政委员会（fc）对经济表现的因果影响。采用动态差中差模型和双向固定效应模型，我们发现金融危机显著提高了GDP增长，降低了债务和通货膨胀的波动性，特别是在制度框架强大的环境中。这些结果强调了金融中心在促进财政纪律和宏观经济稳定方面的作用，为旨在实现可持续发展目标（可持续发展目标8）的政策制定者提供了宝贵的见解。通过实证将金融危机与改善的经济成果联系起来，本研究填补了文献中的一个关键空白，并为金融危机在不同经济背景下的有效性提供了强有力的证据。研究结果强调了采用金融控制的重要性，特别是在发展中经济体，以加强财政治理和促进长期经济增长。

引用次数: 0

Festivity spending, rat race, and underdevelopment: A stylized model 节日消费、激烈竞争和欠发达：一个程式化模型

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101306

Alisher Aldashev , Gani Aldashev

We examine the household spending on festivities and their link to underdevelopment. Data from household surveys in Central Asia show the allocation of a substantial part of household income for festivities, often at the expense of essential needs such as food and education. These expenditures, while enhancing social status and broadening social networks, have detrimental effects on health and education outcomes, thereby perpetuating poverty cycles. We build a simple game-theoretic model that highlights the rat-race nature of festivity spending and suggests that financial market liberalization alone might not be sufficient for poverty reduction. Multiple equilibria arise (where poor households are locked in a bad equilibrium with little educational spending and large spending on festivities). Regulating festivity expenses can be Pareto-improving.

我们考察了家庭在庆祝活动上的支出及其与欠发达的联系。中亚家庭调查的数据显示，家庭收入的很大一部分用于庆祝活动，往往牺牲了食物和教育等基本需求。这些支出虽然提高了社会地位，扩大了社会网络，但对保健和教育成果产生了不利影响，从而使贫穷循环永久化。我们建立了一个简单的博弈论模型，该模型突出了节日消费的激烈竞争性质，并表明仅靠金融市场自由化可能不足以减少贫困。多重均衡出现了（贫困家庭被锁定在一个糟糕的均衡中，教育支出很少，而节日支出却很大）。调节节日开支可以改善帕累托。

引用次数: 0

Credit constraints and corporate tax payments: Evidence from Vietnamese firms 信贷约束与企业纳税：来自越南企业的证据

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101305

Thang Ngoc Bach , Thanh Le , Bao Thai Luong , Huong Van Vu

This paper examines the nexus between firms’ financial constraints and their tax payment. We conjecture that financial constraints are strongly associated with firms’ tax planning behaviour. In this process, firms strategically manage to reduce their tax payment in the face of financing constraints. Using a unique data set on Vietnamese private manufacturing small and medium enterprises spanning the 2009–2015 period, we find strong support for this hypothesis. In addition, we find discernible differences in forming strategic tax planning behaviour between two groups of constrained firms: those being discouraged by the financial market and those having loan applications declined by banks. Heterogeneity analysis further sheds light on the credit constraints-tax payment nexus since the negative relationship between credit constraints and corporate tax payments varies across different firms of different characteristics. Obtained findings convey important policy implications on tax administration and bank finance for economic development.

本文考察了企业财务约束与纳税之间的关系。我们推测，财务约束与企业的税务筹划行为密切相关。在这一过程中，企业在面临融资约束的情况下战略性地减少纳税。利用2009-2015年期间越南私营制造业中小企业的独特数据集，我们发现这一假设得到了强有力的支持。此外，我们发现在两组受约束的公司之间形成战略税收规划行为的明显差异：那些受到金融市场的劝阻和那些贷款申请被银行拒绝的公司。异质性分析进一步揭示了信用约束与纳税之间的关系，因为信用约束与企业纳税之间的负相关关系在不同特征的企业中有所不同。获得的研究结果对税收管理和经济发展的银行融资具有重要的政策意义。

引用次数: 0

Financial access and income inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does ethnic fragmentation give new evidence? 撒哈拉以南非洲的金融获取与收入不平等：种族分裂是否提供了新证据？

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101200

Valentine Soumtang Bimé , Itchoko Motande Mondjeli Mwa Ndjokou

There is a large body of work documenting the non-consensual effects of financial access on income inequality. Despite this extensive literature and the predominance of ethnic fragmentation in Sub Saharan Africa countries (SSA), little is known about its mediating effect on the above relation. This paper focuses on assessing the effect of ethnic fragmentation on financial access income inequality nexus. Based on Kripfganz and Schwarz's (2019) dynamic panel estimator of time-invariant variables in a sample of thirty-seven (37) SSA countries over the period of 1990–2019, it is observed that ethnic fragmentation hinders financial access to reduce inequality in SSA. The results remain stable following several sensitivity tests related to corruption, urbanization, financial literacy and socio-geographic factors. They are also robust to the use of alternative measures of financial access and to change estimation technique.

有大量文献记录了金融服务对收入不平等的非共识性影响。尽管有这些广泛的文献，而且撒哈拉以南非洲国家（SSA）普遍存在种族分裂现象，但人们对其对上述关系的中介效应知之甚少。本文重点评估种族分化对金融获取收入不平等关系的影响。基于 Kripfganz 和 Schwarz（2019 年）在 1990-2019 年期间对三十七（37）个撒哈拉以南非洲国家样本中的时间不变变量进行的动态面板估计，发现种族分裂阻碍了金融获取，从而减少了撒哈拉以南非洲国家的不平等。在进行了与腐败、城市化、金融知识普及和社会地理因素相关的若干敏感性测试后，结果保持稳定。此外，使用其他金融获取措施和改变估算技术也能使结果保持稳定。

引用次数: 0

The effects of EU grants on SMEs: Evidence from Bulgaria 欧盟赠款对中小型企业的影响：保加利亚的证据

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101244

Daniel Nigohosyan , Iglika Vassileva, Albena Vutsova

The paper explores the effects of European Union (EU) support on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Bulgaria in the 2014–2020 programming period. In particular, it applies two standard counterfactual techniques (Difference-in-Differences and Propensity Score Matching) to review a 200-million EUR scheme under the Operational Programme ‘Innovation and Competitiveness’ (2014–2020). The analysis shows a positive and statistically significant effect of the grants on the assets of the supported companies. Some positive effects on the SMEs' revenues and revenues per employee have also been observed. However, the paper finds no evidence that the SME grants have supported the companies' profitability and employment. Thus, the findings raise questions about the design of grant schemes supporting competitiveness, which may lead to selecting better-performing companies (‘cherry-picking’) without providing any substantial positive effects.

本文探讨了欧盟（EU）在 2014-2020 年规划期间对保加利亚中小型企业（SMEs）的支持效果。特别是，本文采用了两种标准的反事实技术（差分法和倾向得分匹配法）来审查 "创新与竞争力 "业务计划（2014-2020 年）下的一项 2 亿欧元计划。分析表明，补助金对受资助公司的资产产生了积极的、具有统计意义的影响。对中小企业的收入和员工人均收入也产生了一些积极影响。然而，本文没有发现任何证据表明中小企业补助金支持了公司的盈利能力和就业。因此，研究结果对支持竞争力的资助计划的设计提出了质疑，因为这可能会导致选择表现更好的公司（"挑肥拣瘦"），而不会带来任何实质性的积极影响。

引用次数: 0

The impact of Russia’s Geopolitical Risk on stock markets’ high-moment risk 俄罗斯地缘政治风险对股市高风险的影响

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101242

Asil Azimli , Demet Beton Kalmaz

We investigated the time and frequency connectedness between Russia’s geopolitical risk (R-GPR) and the high-order moments (volatility, skewness, and kurtosis) of equity markets in eight countries: U.S., Belgium, France, Germany, U.K., Italy, Switzerland, and Spain. Our findings showed that R-GPR and realized volatility co-move in the short- and medium-term frequency bands during wartime, except in the U.S. and U.K. markets. Concerning realized skewness, significant co-movements were observed between R-GPR and Belgium and Germany during the short- and medium-frequency bands, implying that higher skewness (crash risk) was associated with higher R-GPR. Contrastingly, the realized kurtosis and R-GPR were connected at a long-term frequency. Finally, R-GPR negatively led to realized kurtosis in the U.S. market, implying the U.S. market’s hedging potential for fat-tail risk. Our results provide essential insights into the investment and risk-management practices of market participants with different investment horizons.

我们研究了俄罗斯地缘政治风险（R-GPR）与八个国家股票市场的高阶时刻（波动性、偏度和峰度）之间的时间和频率联系：美国、比利时、法国、德国、英国、意大利、瑞士和西班牙。我们的研究结果表明，在战争期间，除了美国和英国市场，R-GPR和实现波动率在中短期频带共同移动。在实现偏度方面，在中短频段，R-GPR与比利时和德国之间观察到显著的协同运动，这意味着较高的偏度（碰撞风险）与较高的R-GPR相关。相比之下，实现峰度与R-GPR在一个长期频率上连接。最后，R-GPR负向导致美国市场实现峰度，暗示美国市场对肥尾风险的对冲潜力。我们的研究结果为具有不同投资视野的市场参与者的投资和风险管理实践提供了重要的见解。

引用次数: 0

Economic analysis and competition policy practice: A comparative empirical examination 经济分析和竞争政策实践：比较实证研究

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101245

Svetlana Golovanova , Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro , Svetlana Avdasheva

This paper contributes to empirical studies of competition policy enforcement. The study applies an empirical approach to measure the extent of economic analysis (legal standard) applied by competition authorities in antitrust cases by leading developing countries, namely, Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa (4 out of 5 BRICS countries). Using antitrust case-by-case information we explore the level, dynamics, and convergence of legal standards in antitrust investigations. The results indicate that the countries differ in the legal standard used, even on the same conduct type under investigation. On average, competition authorities in Brazil and India apply higher legal standards than those in Russia and South Africa. The ranking of legal standards by conduct groups differs as well, with vertical agreements and abuse of dominance cases having the highest levels. There is no evidence of an increasing trend or convergence in the legal standard in antitrust investigations, either between cases of the same conduct group or between countries investigated. This study also does not find unambiguous evidence on the effect of resources (funding and staff) on legal standards or on the consistency of case-specific analysis.

本文有助于竞争政策执行的实证研究。该研究采用实证方法来衡量主要发展中国家（即巴西、俄罗斯、印度和南非（金砖国家中的4个））竞争当局在反垄断案件中应用的经济分析（法律标准）的程度。利用反垄断个案信息，我们探讨了反垄断调查中法律标准的水平、动态和趋同。结果表明，即使在调查的同一行为类型上，各国所使用的法律标准也有所不同。平均而言，巴西和印度的竞争监管机构采用的法律标准高于俄罗斯和南非。不同行为组对法律标准的排名也不同，纵向协议和滥用支配地位案件的排名最高。没有证据表明反垄断调查的法律标准有增加的趋势或趋同，无论是在同一行为组的案件之间还是在被调查的国家之间。这项研究也没有发现关于资源（资金和工作人员）对法律标准的影响或对具体个案分析的一致性的明确证据。

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