Economic Systems最新文献_第3页

China's risk contagion using the mixed-frequency macro-financial network 用混频宏观金融网络分析中国风险传染

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101212

Cuixia Jiang , Haijing Gao , Qifa Xu

We explore and compare the fundamental laws of risk contagion under different shocks during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic periods. Using the daily returns of financial market indices and the monthly growth rates of macroeconomic data for two periods, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2010, and from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2021, we construct a macro-financial network with the mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) method to produce well-defined measures of intra-system and cross-system risk contagion. We investigate the differences in risk contagion under different types of major events using an event study model. The empirical results show that the financial system is the center of risk contagion. Regarding the direction of the cross-system risk contagion, the risk contagion from the financial to the macroeconomic system dominates the contagion in the opposite direction. The impacts of financial and pandemic shocks on the macro-financial risk contagion differ significantly. Importantly, both investor sentiment and consumer confidence mediate these impacts, providing useful insights into the prevention of risk contagion.

我们探索和比较了全球金融危机和新冠肺炎大流行时期不同冲击下风险传染的基本规律。利用2003年1月1日至2010年12月31日和2015年1月1日至2021年12月31日两个时期金融市场指数的日收益率和宏观经济数据的月增长率，我们用混合频率向量自回归（MF-VAR）方法构建了一个宏观金融网络，以产生明确的系统内和跨系统风险传染度量。我们使用事件研究模型研究了不同类型的重大事件下风险传染的差异。实证结果表明，金融体系是风险传染的中心。从跨系统风险传染的方向看，从金融到宏观经济系统的风险传染主导了反方向的风险传染。金融冲击和大流行病冲击对宏观金融风险传染的影响存在显著差异。重要的是，投资者情绪和消费者信心都是这些影响的中介，为预防风险蔓延提供了有用的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Demographic transition and inflation 人口结构转型与通货膨胀

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101214

Karan Rai, Bhavesh Garg

We propose a few testable hypotheses to examine the impact of demographic transition on inflation. We contribute to the existing literature by refining the formulation of hypotheses and treatment of slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence by implementing the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) procedure that adopts dynamic common correlated predictors. To this end, we consider two panels consisting of eight advanced economies (AEs) and sixteen emerging market economies (EMEs) to gain insights into the current asymmetric global demographic transition. Our comprehensive analysis reveals that the share of the working-age population is inflationary in AEs and disinflationary in EMEs. This analysis suggests that an asymmetry in demographic transition between AEs and EMEs influences inflation differently. Our findings offer clues to policymakers regarding the influence of the cohort size of the prime and young working-age population on inflation. Specifically, policymakers in emerging markets should incorporate information about the changing structure of demographic variables as the asymmetry in transition can lead to varying impacts on inflation compared to the impacts in advanced nations.

我们提出了几个可检验的假设来检验人口结构转变对通货膨胀的影响。我们通过实施采用动态共同相关预测因子的横截面增强自回归分布滞后（CS-ARDL）程序，完善假设的制定和坡度异质性和横截面依赖性的处理，从而为现有文献做出贡献。为此，我们考虑了由8个发达经济体（ae）和16个新兴市场经济体（eme）组成的两个小组，以深入了解当前不对称的全球人口转型。我们的综合分析表明，劳动年龄人口的比例在发达国家是通货膨胀的，在新兴市场是通货紧缩的。这一分析表明，ae和eme之间的人口过渡不对称对通货膨胀的影响不同。我们的研究结果为政策制定者提供了关于壮年和年轻劳动年龄人口群体规模对通货膨胀影响的线索。具体而言，新兴市场的政策制定者应纳入有关人口变量结构变化的信息，因为与发达国家的影响相比，转型中的不对称可能导致对通胀的不同影响。

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引用次数: 0

Why developing countries need a new central bank paradigm: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa region 为什么发展中国家需要新的中央银行范式？中东和北非地区的证据

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101230

Mohamad A. Abou Hamia

This study utilizes a panel of Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) economies to argue that developing countries need a new central bank paradigm. The study measures central bank independence in the MENA region. We leverage this measure of central bank independence to analyze its impact on inflation rates, economic growth rates, and unemployment rates. Our robust empirical results reveal that central bank independence has no effect on inflation rates, plays no role in economic growth, and does not contribute to job creation. The findings suggest that fixed exchange rates—rather than central bank independence—have been responsible for price stability in the MENA region over the past three decades. The prevailing central bank paradigm assumes that achieving and maintaining price stability would encourage private investment, which would subsequently promote sustained economic growth and job creation in the long term. As developing countries have failed to sustain economic growth and create decent jobs over the past thirty years, the study argues that price stability cannot be maintained, and central bank independence in these countries is likely to diminish. Consequently, the study calls for a new central bank paradigm that empowers central banks to play a more active role both in financing short-term government needs and in creating decent jobs in developing countries.

本研究利用中东和北非（MENA）经济体的一个小组来论证发展中国家需要一个新的中央银行范式。该研究衡量了中东和北非地区央行的独立性。我们利用这一衡量央行独立性的指标来分析其对通货膨胀率、经济增长率和失业率的影响。我们强有力的实证结果表明，中央银行的独立性对通货膨胀率没有影响，对经济增长没有作用，也无助于创造就业机会。研究结果表明，在过去的30年里，固定汇率——而不是中央银行的独立性——对中东和北非地区的价格稳定负有责任。普遍的中央银行模式认为，实现和维持价格稳定将鼓励私人投资，从而在长期内促进持续的经济增长和创造就业机会。由于发展中国家在过去30年里未能维持经济增长和创造体面的就业机会，该研究认为，价格稳定无法维持，这些国家的央行独立性可能会减弱。因此，该研究呼吁建立一种新的中央银行模式，使中央银行能够在为短期政府需求融资和在发展中国家创造体面就业方面发挥更积极的作用。

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引用次数: 0

Is there a "Machine Substitution"? How does the digital economy reshape the employment structure in emerging market countries 是否存在 "机器替代"？数字经济如何重塑新兴市场国家的就业结构？

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101237

Yingzi Qu , Sha Fan

The exponential growth of the digital economy, particularly in emerging market countries, has significantly reshaped employment structures characterized by substitution and supplementation effects. Will "machine substitution" result in labor flow between sectors, or will it precipitate a polarization of employment skills akin to the patterns observed in industrialized countries and lead to structural unemployment? These issues have not yet been adequately addressed. This study aims to fill this gap by examining the impact of digital economy development on the employment structure, considering both sectoral and skill perspectives. Using a panel dataset encompassing 30 emerging market countries between 2006 and 2020, we find that as the digital economy grows, the employment structure from the sectoral perspective improves in a way that favors the tertiary sector, while the employment structure from the skill perspective shows an evolutionary process from a monotonically upgrading effect to "polarization," which differs from the pattern observed in developed countries. The digital economy’s impact on emerging market countries displays discernible heterogeneity and stage-specific characteristics. The mechanism analysis underscores the role of entrepreneurial activity and the relative importance of the tertiary sector compared to the primary sector, as measured by value-added, in mediating the digital economy's effect on the employment structure. Finally, our threshold test reveals a nonlinear regulatory effect of the digital economy on the employment structure, highlighting its critical implications for policymakers and businesses.

数字经济的指数级增长，特别是在新兴市场国家，显著重塑了以替代和补充效应为特征的就业结构。“机器替代”会导致各部门之间的劳动力流动，还是会导致就业技能的两极分化，类似于工业化国家所观察到的模式，并导致结构性失业？这些问题尚未得到充分解决。本研究旨在通过研究数字经济发展对就业结构的影响来填补这一空白，同时考虑到部门和技能的角度。利用涵盖30个新兴市场国家2006 - 2020年的面板数据，我们发现，随着数字经济的发展，行业视角下的就业结构向有利于第三产业的方向改善，而技能视角下的就业结构则呈现出从单调升级效应到“极化”的演化过程，这与发达国家的模式不同。数字经济对新兴市场国家的影响表现出明显的异质性和阶段性特征。机制分析强调了创业活动的作用，以及第三产业相对于第一产业的相对重要性（以增加值衡量），在中介数字经济对就业结构的影响方面。最后，我们的阈值测试揭示了数字经济对就业结构的非线性调节效应，突出了其对政策制定者和企业的重要影响。

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引用次数: 0

Determinants of school dropouts and the impact on youth unemployment: Evidence from Ethiopia 辍学的决定因素及其对青年失业的影响：埃塞俄比亚的证据

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101228

Million Sileshi, Kedir Jemal, Bekele Wegi Feyisa

Despite significant youth school dropouts in Ethiopia, the household characteristics that contribute to dropouts and the impact of dropouts on youth unemployment remain unclear. To fill this gap, this study analyzes the factors that influence youth dropouts and evaluates the impact of dropouts on youth unemployment in Ethiopia using data from the 2019 World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture. We employ endogenous switching regression to estimate the impact of youth dropouts on the likelihood that a household has unemployed youths and the number of unemployed youths in the household. The findings reveal that different parental characteristics such as age, education, and whether parents live together are negatively associated with the probability of youth dropouts, while households with a Muslim head are more likely to have school dropouts than Orthodox-headed households. Households who have multiple income sources, are located in rural areas, are located far from the school, and have disabled family members are also found to be more likely to have youth dropouts. In addition, our findings reveal that youth dropouts increase the probability of having unemployed youths in the household and raise the number of unemployed youths in the household. The study’s findings highlight the need for considering households’ characteristics and other factors associated with youth dropouts when developing educational interventions to reduce youth dropouts in Ethiopia. Furthermore, investment in parental education and infrastructural facilities such as roads and schools could reduce youth unemployment in Ethiopia, particularly in rural areas where public schools are the only option.

尽管埃塞俄比亚青年辍学率很高，但导致辍学的家庭特征以及辍学对青年失业的影响仍不清楚。为了填补这一空白，本研究分析了影响青年辍学的因素，并利用2019年世界银行生活水平衡量研究-农业综合调查的数据评估了辍学对埃塞俄比亚青年失业的影响。我们使用内生转换回归来估计青年辍学对家庭中有失业青年的可能性和家庭中失业青年人数的影响。研究结果显示，不同的父母特征，如年龄、教育程度和父母是否住在一起，与青少年辍学的可能性呈负相关，而穆斯林户主的家庭比东正教户主的家庭更有可能辍学。研究还发现，有多种收入来源、位于农村地区、离学校很远、家庭成员有残疾的家庭更有可能出现青少年辍学。此外，我们的研究结果显示，青年辍学增加了家庭中失业青年的可能性，并增加了家庭中失业青年的数量。该研究的结果强调，在制定教育干预措施以减少埃塞俄比亚的青少年辍学时，需要考虑家庭特征和其他与青少年辍学相关的因素。此外，对父母教育和道路和学校等基础设施的投资可以减少埃塞俄比亚的青年失业率，特别是在公立学校是唯一选择的农村地区。

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引用次数: 0

Financial frictions in a macroeconometric model: A counterfactual analysis for the case of Slovenia 宏观经济计量模型中的金融摩擦：以斯洛文尼亚为例的反事实分析

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101224

Darja Zabavnik , Miroslav Verbič

The paper investigates the importance of modelling the effects of financial frictions in a macroeconometric framework for the small open economy of Slovenia. We enhance the model with additional behavioural equations pertaining to business and residential investment, the respective lending rates, and the gross operating surplus of non-financial companies. The estimation period spans from 1999Q1 to 2019Q4, meaning a period of significant financial distress was included in the analysis. Counterfactual analysis was conducted by comparing simulation results from a macroeconometric model with the explicit modelling of financial frictions to a model with limited transmission effects. The results indicate that financial frictions significantly hinder macroeconomic development under adverse macroeconomic scenarios. Policymakers’ measures should focus on maintaining financial sector stability and enabling external financing access for non-financial companies and households during adverse economic situations.

本文研究了在斯洛文尼亚小型开放经济的宏观计量经济学框架中模拟金融摩擦影响的重要性。我们用与商业和住宅投资、各自的贷款利率和非金融公司的总营业盈余有关的额外行为方程来增强模型。估计期间从1999Q1到2019Q4，这意味着分析中包括了一段严重的财务困境时期。通过比较具有明确金融摩擦建模的宏观计量经济模型与具有有限传导效应的模型的模拟结果，进行反事实分析。结果表明，在不利的宏观经济情景下，金融摩擦显著阻碍了宏观经济的发展。政策制定者的措施应侧重于维持金融部门的稳定，并使非金融企业和家庭能够在不利的经济形势下获得外部融资。

引用次数: 0

Environmental protection taxes and green productivity: Evidence from listed companies in China 环境保护税与绿色生产力：来自中国上市公司的证据

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101213

Zhijun Yan , Yuting Jia , Bingbing Zhang

Enforcing an environmental protection tax is a pivotal institutional measure for addressing environmental and climate change challenges and marking a substantial advancement in ecological development. This study aims to explore the influence of environmental protection taxes on the "green" productivity of the manufacturing industry through an analysis of Chinese listed companies. Initially, the Dynamic Slacks-Based Measure (DSBM) method is employed to estimate the "green" production efficiency levels of 175 listed companies in China from 2016 to 2020. Subsequently, by aligning pollution tax standards issued by local governments and relevant environmental protection departments with microlevel data from the CSMAR database, wind database, listed company annual reports, and social responsibility reports, the sample was refined to 833 data points. Using the implementation of the environmental protection tax policy in 2018 as a natural experiment, a Difference-in-Differences (DID) model is applied for empirical testing. The empirical results reveal a counterintuitive negative correlation between the environmental protection tax and the "green" productivity of companies, contradicting the predictions of the Porter hypothesis. This suggests that stringent environmental regulations hinder the development of green technologies. The adverse impact of environmental protection taxes on "green" productivity is attributed to heightened environmental legitimacy pressures and increasing environmental uncertainty risks companies face. Further exploratory analysis indicated that the digital economy and green finance have a positive moderating effect, significantly mitigating the negative impact of environmental protection taxes on companies' overall "green" productivity. Consequently, dynamically optimizing environmental tax policies is imperative to alleviate companies' environmental legitimacy pressures and uncertainty risks. Additionally, capitalizing on the opportunities the digital economy presents and leveraging green finance policies have emerged as effective strategies for realizing the Porter effect of environmental protection taxes.

开征环境保护税是应对环境和气候变化挑战的重要制度措施，标志着生态文明建设取得实质性进展。本研究旨在通过对中国上市公司的分析，探讨环境保护税对制造业“绿色”生产率的影响。首先，采用DSBM （Dynamic Slacks-Based Measure）方法对中国175家上市公司2016 - 2020年的“绿色”生产效率水平进行估算。随后，通过将地方政府和相关环保部门发布的污染税标准与CSMAR数据库、风电数据库、上市公司年报和社会责任报告中的微观数据进行匹配，将样本细化到833个数点。以2018年环境保护税政策的实施为自然实验，采用差分差分（DID）模型进行实证检验。实证结果显示，环境保护税与企业的“绿色”生产率之间存在反直觉的负相关关系，这与波特假设的预测相矛盾。这表明严格的环境法规阻碍了绿色技术的发展。环境保护税对“绿色”生产力的不利影响归因于企业面临的环境合法性压力增加和环境不确定性风险增加。进一步的探索性分析表明，数字经济和绿色金融具有正向调节作用，显著缓解了环境保护税对企业整体“绿色”生产率的负面影响。因此，动态优化环境税收政策是缓解企业环境合法性压力和不确定性风险的必要措施。此外，利用数字经济带来的机遇和利用绿色金融政策已成为实现环境保护税波特效应的有效策略。

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引用次数: 0

Place-based policies and capital misallocation: Evidence from Chinese cities 以地方为基础的政策与资本错配：来自中国城市的证据

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101201

Yi Cui

This study examines the impact of place-based policy on urban capital misallocation, primarily using China’s special economic zone (SEZ) reform and city-level data from 2003–2018. This study finds that creating SEZs leads to an over-allocation of capital to cities, increasing capital misallocation in cities by at least 20%. This results in an average annual loss of 0.34% of real gross domestic product for cities that establish SEZs. The heterogeneity analysis at the spatio-temporal level suggests that SEZs can cause capital misallocation by distorting the efficient location of capital flows. Moreover, SEZs primarily created to help economically distressed regions can lead to even more significant capital misallocation. The reform leads to the most considerable misallocation in the city with the most efficient initial capital allocation, which is the main path to its effect. In addition, this study finds that the industrial selection preferences of SEZs and local protection behaviour are two important channels through which SEZs exert their effects.

本研究主要利用2003-2018年中国经济特区改革和城市层面的数据，考察了基于地方的政策对城市资本错配的影响。本研究发现，创建经济特区导致资本过度配置到城市，导致城市资本错配至少增加20%。这导致建立经济特区的城市平均每年损失实际国内生产总值的0.34%。时空异质性分析表明，经济特区通过扭曲资本流动的有效区位而导致资本错配。此外，为帮助经济困难地区而设立的经济特区可能导致更严重的资本错配。在初始资本配置效率最高的城市，改革导致最严重的错配，这是改革效果产生的主要途径。此外，本研究还发现，经济特区的产业选择偏好和地方保护行为是经济特区发挥作用的两个重要渠道。

引用次数: 0

Globalization in lifelong gender inclusive education for structural transformation in Africa 全球化促进非洲结构转型的终身性别包容教育

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101218

Simplice A. Asongu , Jean R.F.K. Bouanza , Peter Agyemang-Mintah

The present study examines the relevance of globalization in lifelong gender inclusive education for structural transformation. The focus of the research is on 41 countries in Africa using data from 2004 to 2021. The generalized method of moments (GMM) is employed to assess the problem statement within the remit of interactive regressions. Gender inclusive lifelong learning is measured as gender inclusive education acquired during the three levels of education, notably: primary, secondary and tertiary inclusive education stages. Total globalization and corresponding components (social, economic and political dynamics) are employed as moderators. The attendant sub-components of economic (i.e., trade and financial) and social (i.e., interpersonal, informational and cultural) globalization are also employed for robustness purposes. The hypotheses that globalization and gender inclusive lifelong learning individually influence structural transformation are not validated. Furthermore, the hypothesis that globalization dynamics moderate lifelong gender inclusive education to promote structural transformation is also not validated. Clarification as to why the hypotheses are not validated is provided. Policy implications are discussed.

本研究旨在探讨全球化与终身性别融合教育对结构转型的相关性。这项研究的重点是非洲41个国家，使用了2004年至2021年的数据。采用广义矩量法（GMM）对交互回归范围内的问题表述进行评价。性别包容性终身学习被衡量为在三个教育阶段获得的性别包容性教育，特别是：小学、中学和大学包容性教育阶段。总全球化和相应的组成部分（社会、经济和政治动态）被用作调节因素。经济（即贸易和金融）和社会（即人际、信息和文化）全球化的附属子组件也用于稳健性目的。全球化和性别包容性终身学习各自影响结构转型的假设未得到验证。此外，全球化动态调节终身性别全纳教育促进结构转型的假设也未得到验证。澄清了为什么这些假设没有得到验证。讨论了政策影响。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of the heterogenous fiscal policy stance of euro-area member states on ECB monetary policy 欧元区成员国不同财政政策立场对欧洲央行货币政策的影响

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101216

Linas Jurkšas

This article assesses the influence of the fiscal stance of different euro-area members on the monetary policy actions of the European Central Bank. This issue has increased in relevance due to the widening disparities in the levels of debt across euro-area member states. We utilise a thick modelling approach that includes various GMM model specifications for the five largest euro area economies using quarterly projections data from 2002 to 2022. The findings indicate that the fiscal deficits of different euro area countries did not consistently exert a substantial impact on monetary policymaking. This conclusion holds even after the COVID-19 shock, with projected inflation remaining the most consistently significant indicator.

本文评估了欧元区不同成员国的财政立场对欧洲中央银行货币政策行动的影响。由于欧元区各成员国之间的债务水平差距不断扩大，这一问题的相关性也随之增加。我们利用 2002 年至 2022 年的季度预测数据，对欧元区五大经济体采用了厚模型方法，其中包括各种 GMM 模型规格。研究结果表明，欧元区不同国家的财政赤字并未持续对货币政策制定产生实质性影响。即使在 COVID-19 冲击之后，这一结论也是成立的，预计通胀仍然是最有持续意义的指标。

引用次数: 0