China & World Economy最新文献

This study examined the impact of broadband infrastructure on household consumption inequality in China. Using panel data from 2012 to 2018 and employing a staggered difference-in-differences design, it found that the Broadband China program reduced relative consumption deprivation. The effect was driven primarily by increases in household income and social connections. Reductions in inequality were more pronounced in rural and inland areas, among younger households, and in regions with higher market segmentation. By contrast, an earlier policy that improved Internet speed without expanding access was associated with increased inequality. The findings suggest that digital infrastructure can shape the distributional effects of growth by improving access for disadvantaged groups.

E-commerce has become a driver of economic development in China. Drawing on China Household Finance Survey data from 2013 to 2023, this study examined the impact of the National Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Project (NRECDP) on rural household consumption using a staggered difference-in-differences model. The results indicated that the NRECDP increased per capita consumption of rural households by RMB 321. Mechanism analysis revealed two main channels: First, the NRECDP promoted rural household participation in online sales, encouraged changes in planting structures, and raised income from agricultural sales, thereby easing liquidity constraints and stimulating consumption. Second, the project boosted online shopping, particularly in regions with limited market access and small market size, suggesting that it reduced transaction costs and geographic barriers, thereby unlocking latent consumption potential. Heterogeneity analysis showed that the digital economy had a stronger positive effect on households with lower education levels, those without formal loans, and the elderly. Further analysis demonstrated a synergistic effect between digital finance and the project in promoting rural consumption.

De-globalization and geopolitical turmoil are presenting significant challenges to China's export-driven growth model, highlighting the urgent need to boost domestic consumption to maintain the supply–demand balance. This paper begins by identifying several stylized facts from multiple datasets: a persistently low final consumption share of GDP (falling to 48.91 percent in 2010), a declining household share of final consumption (offset by a high and stable government share), and widening consumption disparities across urban–rural, generational, and regional dimensions. It then reviews literature on key determinants of the household consumption rate: constrained household income (due to a low labor share, high inequality, and limited access to credit), weak consumption (driven by inadequate social security, limited public services, and cultural factors such as Confucian frugality and intergenerational obligations), and barriers to market accessibility (stemming from infrastructure gaps and uneven development of the digital economy). Finally, the paper makes targeted policy recommendations to address these constraints and unlock China's domestic consumption potential for sustainable growth.

Consumption is a key driver of economic growth. However, the impact of critical illness insurance (CII) on consumption inequality remains underexplored. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study from 2011 to 2018, this study employed a staggered difference-in-differences method to investigate this effect. It found that CII increased consumption inequality significantly among rural households. This effect arose primarily from disparities in future expectations rather than direct increases in income inequality. In terms of consumption structure, CII widened consumption inequality in housing, daily necessities, transportation, communication, and health care, but had no significant effect on food, clothing, education, recreation, or other services. The effect also varied across different regions, income levels, and quantiles. These findings offer important insights for policymakers in developing countries who aim to reduce rural consumption inequality through health-care insurance optimization.

This study investigated whether and how government procurement of digital products influenced corporate digital transformation. Using data on Chinese listed firms from 2015 to 2022 and applying web-scraping techniques to identify government procurement of digital products, it found that firms securing more government digital procurement contracts were more likely to undertake digital transformations. The effect was more pronounced for large-scale, mature, state-owned firms, and those located in regions with a lower level of digital infrastructure or non-technology-based enterprises. Mechanism analysis suggested that government procurement supported digital transformation by strengthening expectations of future market demand, reducing cash flow risk, and alleviating transformation-related uncertainty. These findings provide empirical evidence that, in the digital intelligence era, government procurement of digital products can boost the digital transformation of enterprises.

The reduction of economic development inequality is widely recognized as a means of promoting household consumption. Using nighttime light data combined with household survey datasets from 2010 to 2020, this paper investigated the impact of inequality on household consumption in China. The results revealed a significant negative relationship, which remained robust after instrumental variable regressions and multiple robustness checks. The effect was strongest among married households with children and insignificant for those unmarried or without children. Further analysis showed that the inequality–consumption relationship varied with the gender composition, marital status, and the age of household heads, as well as the number and educational level of children, emphasizing the role of intergenerational support in shaping up the inequality–consumption nexus. The study found that increased government spending on education effectively alleviated the adverse impact of inequality on household consumption.

Interlocking directors, those serving simultaneously on two or more corporate boards, facilitate exchanges of expertise and knowledge between companies, helping to reduce information gaps related to internationalization. This study analyzed investment data of 4,403 listed Chinese companies across 80 countries from 2000 to 2021, and identified a significant peer effect: the outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) experience of interlocking board directors strongly influenced companies' decisions to engage in OFDI in the same country. Key mechanisms affecting OFDI decisions include the focal company's cost of debt and the scope of available information. Heterogeneity analysis shows that peer effects were more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises, companies with lower financing constraints, and those in more competitive industries. These effects were amplified in host countries with higher levels of government integrity and more favorable business environments. This research identifies the key drivers of OFDI and highlights the influential role of interlocking directors in shaping investment strategies, offering theoretical insights for emerging market companies seeking to leverage such networks.

A multidimensional poverty index was constructed based on a specialized survey of rural children in China, with four dimensions reflecting the deprivation of children's rights. Multidimensional poverty was compared between left-behind children (LBC) and non-LBC to assess whether parental migration mitigated such deprivation, and the effects of different types of parental migration on LBC were further analyzed. First, parental migration was found to have alleviated poverty in terms of nutrition and health for LBC but exacerbated deprivation in education, care and protection, and access to information. Second, LBC were more likely to experience multidimensional poverty than non-LBC, particularly when both parents had migrated. Third, the absence of positive parent–child interactions increased the likelihood of LBC experiencing multidimensional poverty, which in turn negatively affected the development of both cognitive and noncognitive abilities. These findings underscore the potential effectiveness of early interventions in education, care and protection, and access to information.

This study incorporates average temperature into the Balassa–Samuelson model to examine the impact of temperature differences on real exchange rates (RERs). It demonstrates that the classic Balassa–Samuelson model is a special case of a more generalized model. When average temperature differences reduce relative productivity with temperature effects, RERs tend to depreciate; otherwise, they appreciate. A cross-sectional analysis of 163 economies from 1980 to 2019 indicates a significant negative relationship between average temperature and the RER. If the average temperature in one economy is 0.19°C higher than that in another, its RER tends to depreciate by 5.75 percent to 6.01 percent. This effect is observable only when the average temperature exceeds 14°C or 15°C. The depreciation is more pronounced in wealthier or less agriculture-dependent economies.

This paper examines the impact of the US on International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending decisions and explores its underlying mechanisms. The results indicate that alignment with the US diplomatic stance significantly increases the likelihood of borrowers securing IMF loans. Countries with closer economic ties to the US not only face a higher probability of obtaining IMF loans but also tend to receive larger loans. Finally, borrowers that engage in military cooperation with the US, or share military interests, are also more likely to access IMF lending. Mechanism analysis reveals that the US has exercised its influence over IMF lending preferences by appointing senior officials to key positions within the organization. However, borrowing countries can partially offset this influence by placing their own citizens in senior management roles at the IMF, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of US influence on their access to IMF loans.