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Will the State-owned Capital Transfer Policy Enhance the Sustainability of the Urban Employee Basic Pension Insurance Fund in China? 国有资本划转政策能否增强中国城镇职工基本养老保险基金的可持续性?
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-17 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12533
Jia Wang, Huan Liu, Mei Li, Han Li

To analyze the effect of the state-owned capital transfer policy on the sustainability of China's urban employee basic pension insurance fund (CUEBPIF), this study develops an actuarial model for pension insurance. The results reveal the following: (i) Without policy intervention, the CUEBPIF would face a deficit in 2027 and a cumulative shortfall of RMB207.44 trillion by 2050, and the proportion of fiscal subsidies for the CUEBPIF in the total fiscal expenditure would increase to 12.86 percent in 2050. (ii) Based on a delayed retirement policy, the transfer of 10 percent of state-owned capital can delay the onset of the fund deficit by 6 years, and the accumulated shortfall in 2050 would fall to RMB39.42 trillion, and the proportion of fiscal subsidies would decrease by 11.77 percentage points. (iii) The state-owned capital transfer policy can improve the sustainability of the CUEBPIF and reduce the burden of enterprise social security contributions when the transfer ratio increases to 20 percent.

为了分析国有资本划转政策对中国城镇职工基本养老保险基金(CUEBPIF)可持续性的影响,本研究建立了一个养老保险精算模型。研究结果表明(i) 在没有政策干预的情况下,2027 年城镇职工基本养老保险基金将出现赤字,到 2050 年累计缺口将达到 207.44 万亿元,2050 年财政对城镇职工基本养老保险基金的补贴占财政总支出的比重将上升到 12.86%。(二) 基于延迟退休政策,10%的国有资本划转可以使基金赤字的出现延迟 6 年,2050 年的累计赤字将下降到 39.42 万亿元,财政补贴占财政总支出的比重将下降 11.77 个百分点。(iii) 当国有资本划转比例提高到 20%时,国有资本划转政策可以提高中央企业职工保 险基金的可持续性,减轻企业社保缴费负担。
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引用次数: 0
Global Spillovers of China's Monetary Policy 中国货币政策的全球溢出效应
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-17 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12530
Wenni Lei, Dongzhou Mei, Mi Zhang

Spillovers from China's monetary policy have become increasingly obvious with China's growing importance in the global economy and its close economic and trade ties with the world. This study establishes a proxy structure vector autoregression model to investigate the magnitude and transmission channel of spillovers from China to global and regional economies, taking advantage of high-frequency changes in asset prices in the financial markets to identify monetary policy shocks. The analysis reveals that China's monetary policy can affect the global economy by influencing international trade and commodity prices but there is no evidence of China's monetary policy affecting global financial variables. Tightness in China's monetary policy can cause a decline in world output whereas expansion in monetary policy can support global trade and output. This study also finds that the response of emerging Asian economies to China's monetary policy shock was nearly twice that of developed economies, while the transmission path did not change. The results of this study are consistent with the stylized fact that China's monetary policy plays an important role in the global trade and commodity cycle, although it does not drive the global financial cycle.

随着中国在全球经济中的地位日益重要,中国与世界的经贸联系日益紧密,中国货币政策的外溢效应日益明显。本研究利用金融市场资产价格的高频变化来识别货币政策冲击,建立了代理结构向量自回归模型,研究中国货币政策对全球和区域经济的溢出效应的大小和传导渠道。分析表明,中国的货币政策可以通过影响国际贸易和大宗商品价格来影响全球经济,但没有证据表明中国的货币政策会影响全球金融变量。中国货币政策的紧缩会导致世界产出下降,而货币政策的扩张则会支持全球贸易和产出。本研究还发现,亚洲新兴经济体对中国货币政策冲击的反应几乎是发达经济体的两倍,而传导路径并未改变。本研究的结果符合一个典型事实,即中国的货币政策在全球贸易和商品周期中发挥着重要作用,尽管它并不驱动全球金融周期。
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引用次数: 0
Value-added Tax and Leverage: Evidence from China's Value-added Tax Rate Reform 增值税与杠杆作用:中国增值税税率改革的证据
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12529
Hongsheng Fang, Lexin Zhao, Xiufen Liu

This paper uses China's value-added tax (VAT) rate reform as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the impacts of VAT rate shocks on corporate financial leverage. The results indicate that the reform reduced corporate total leverage significantly. There was a decrease in short-term leverage, but long-term leverage showed no significant change. These results remained robust across a series of robustness checks. Mechanism analysis shows that increasing profitability and improving cash flows acted as intermediary channels for the reform's impact on leverage. The reform also contributed to the mitigation of the asset–liability mismatch problem and the reduction of debt risk, while having no apparent impact on corporate investments. Finally, enterprises with more elastic demand and those with lower intermediate input ratios were affected most by the deleveraging effect of the VAT rate reform. This study suggests how the VAT rate cut shaped corporate capital structure. It thus helps to explain the economic consequences of VAT rate shocks.

本文将中国的增值税税率改革作为一个准自然实验,以确定增值税税率冲击对企业财务杠杆的影响。结果表明,改革显著降低了企业的总杠杆率。短期杠杆率有所下降,但长期杠杆率没有明显变化。经过一系列稳健性检验,这些结果依然稳健。机制分析表明,提高盈利能力和改善现金流是改革影响杠杆率的中间渠道。改革还有助于缓解资产负债错配问题和降低债务风险,但对企业投资没有明显影响。最后,需求弹性较大的企业和中间投入比率较低的企业受增值税税率改革去杠杆效应的影响最大。本研究说明了增值税税率下调是如何影响企业资本结构的。因此,它有助于解释增值税率冲击的经济后果。
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引用次数: 0
Whose Aid is Beneficial to Firms' Exports? Evidence from a Post-disaster Aid Experiment in China 谁的援助有利于企业出口?来自中国灾后援助实验的证据
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12526
Tan Li, Qing Liu, Lihe Xu

Post-disaster aid is widely regarded as important in helping local recovery and development. This paper examines the effectiveness of post-disaster aid on exports, which are a driving factor of economic development. It reports a natural experiment in China – the case of post-disaster aid following the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 – to examine how donors' experiences affected the exports of manufacturing firms in disaster-stricken counties. The export experience of the donor was important. Aid coming from donors with more export experience was more beneficial to the exports of firms in recipient counties than aid from less experienced donors. “Learning from the donor” is a potential channel through which this effect occurred. That is, firms in recipient counties learned from donors' export experience by exporting more products similar to those of donors, exporting more to the destination countries of donors, and participating in the donors' supply-chain networks by exporting more of the donors' exports. Such “learning from the donor” effects show that knowledge spillover can occur between spatially distant parties, which complements the literature.

人们普遍认为,灾后援助对于帮助当地恢复和发展十分重要。本文探讨了灾后援助对出口的影响,而出口是经济发展的驱动因素。本文报告了中国的一个自然实验--2008 年汶川地震后的灾后援助案例--以考察捐助方的经验如何影响受灾县制造业企业的出口。捐助方的出口经验非常重要。与经验不足的捐助方相比,出口经验丰富的捐助方提供的援助更有利于受援县企业的出口。"向捐助方学习 "是产生这种效应的一个潜在渠道。也就是说,受援国的企业通过出口更多与捐助方类似的产品、向捐助方的目的地国出口更多产品以及通过出口更多捐助方的出口产品参与捐助方的供应链网络,学习捐助方的出口经验。这种 "向捐助国学习 "的效应表明,知识溢出可以在空间上相距遥远的各方之间发生,这是对文献的补充。
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引用次数: 0
Measures of Relative and Absolute Convergence and Pro-poor Growth with an Illustration based on China (2010–2018) 以中国为例说明相对和绝对趋同与扶贫增长的衡量标准(2010-2018 年)
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12524
Elena Bárcena-Martin, Jacques Silber, Yuan Zhang

Income mobility is a key issue for understanding the process of economic growth and distributional change. Some economists have used the concept of “pro-poor growth” to examine, with individual-level panel data, whether the poor benefit more than the rich from economic growth by tracking the extent of income mobility among different population subgroups. There is also literature in macroeconomics on the measurement of convergence. This paper introduces population-weighted relative and absolute indices of mobility, convergence, and pro-poor growth; it also distinguishes between anonymous and nonanonymous approaches to these issues. The empirical analysis is based on Chinese panel data for the period 2010–2018. In both absolute and relative terms, income growth in China was greater for individuals with an initially lower income but only for lower income deciles in relative terms. There was also an overall increase in individual welfare from anonymous and nonanonymous perspectives, which was higher among younger individuals. The welfare of the poor did not increase more than that of the nonpoor. These results shed light on the evolution of income distribution in China during the past decade's rapid economic growth.

收入流动是理解经济增长和分配变化过程的一个关键问题。一些经济学家利用 "有利于穷人的增长 "这一概念,通过追踪不同人口亚群之间的收入流动程度,使用个人层面的面板数据来研究穷人是否比富人从经济增长中获益更多。宏观经济学中也有关于收敛衡量的文献。本文介绍了人口加权的流动性、趋同性和有利于穷人的增长的相对和绝对指数,并区分了解决这些问题的匿名和非匿名方法。实证分析基于 2010-2018 年的中国面板数据。从绝对值和相对值来看,中国最初收入较低的个人的收入增长幅度较大,但从相对值来看,只有收入较低的十分位数的收入增长幅度较大。从匿名和非匿名的角度来看,个人福利也出现了整体增长,其中年轻人的福利增长幅度更大。穷人福利的增长幅度并不比非穷人高。这些结果揭示了中国在过去十年经济快速增长期间收入分配的演变过程。
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引用次数: 0
Climbing the Export Quality Ladder: Role of Human Capital 攀登出口质量阶梯:人力资本的作用
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12528
Xiaogang He, Ruifeng Teng, Dawei Feng

This study assesses the effect of human capital expansion on China's export product quality. It employs the difference-in-differences (DID) framework based on a quasi-natural experiment investigating the 1999 higher education enrollment expansion as the exogenous policy shock. The empirical results confirm that human capital expansion appreciably improved the quality of China's export products. Human capital expansion promoted the transformation and upgrading of old products and the development of new products in term of intensive margin; it strengthened the endowment advantages of incumbent high-quality export enterprises while preventing low-quality enterprises from entering the market through price competition on the extensive margin. This prevented quality decline. Further, the study reveals that the improvement effect driven by human capital came from both innovation-induced and managerial efficiency improvement channels and was more prominent for large or foreign-funded enterprises in the eastern region. Our findings highlight the role of human capital in China's remarkable export performance from an endogenous growth perspective.

本研究评估了人力资本扩张对中国出口产品质量的影响。研究采用了基于准自然实验的差分法(DID)框架,以 1999 年高等教育扩招作为外生政策冲击。实证结果证实,人力资本扩张显著提高了中国出口产品的质量。人力资本扩张在集约边际上促进了旧产品的转型升级和新产品的开发;在广义边际上强化了原有高质量出口企业的禀赋优势,同时通过价格竞争阻止了低质量企业进入市场。这就防止了质量下降。此外,研究还发现,人力资本驱动的改进效应来自创新诱导和管理效率改进两个渠道,并且在东部地区的大型企业或外资企业中更为突出。我们的研究结果从内生增长的角度强调了人力资本在中国显著出口绩效中的作用。
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引用次数: 0
A Structural Measurement of the Valuation Effect of China's External Assets: Method and Application 中国对外资产估值效应的结构测度:方法与应用
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12527
Guowei Cai, Xiaowei Chen, Xun Wang

Existing research on the measurement of the valuation effect mainly follows the residual method proposed by Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2001). This cannot be used to perform structural decomposition. We propose an aggregation approach rather than the residual method to measure structurally the investment flow and valuation effect of China's external assets. The results indicate that the valuation effect of China's external assets has been highly volatile and it was negative during the pandemic period. The structural decomposition shows that portfolio investment and direct investment made the main contributions to the valuation effect. The impact of exchange rates on the valuation effect has generally been higher than that of asset price in terms of direct investment and total external assets but the opposite has been true for portfolio investment. China's outward investments are currently more inclined to Asian countries and a few European countries but inflows to China still mainly come from developed countries.

关于估值效应衡量的现有研究主要采用 Lane 和 Milesi-Ferretti (2001) 提出的残差法。这种方法无法进行结构分解。我们提出了一种聚合方法,而不是残差法,从结构上衡量中国对外资产的投资流量和估值效应。结果表明,中国对外资产的估值效应波动很大,在经济大萧条时期为负值。结构分解显示,证券投资和直接投资对估值效应做出了主要贡献。就直接投资和对外资产总额而言,汇率对估值效应的影响一般高于资产价格的影响,但证券投资则相反。目前,中国的对外投资更倾向于亚洲国家和少数欧洲国家,但流入中国的资金仍主要来自发达国家。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign Ownership and International Trade Performance in China 中国的外资所有权与国际贸易绩效
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12525
Zhiyuan Li, Yichun Lin, Mingyao Xu

We investigate the causal relationship between foreign ownership and international trade performance by comparing foreign-acquired firms with similar domestic-acquired firms in China with regard to changes in their post-acquisition international trade performance. Our findings indicate that foreign ownership significantly enhanced the probability of both exporting and importing, and strongly increased trade value. Foreign ownership took effect from the year of the acquisition and persisted for at least 2 years. It stimulated both processing trade and ordinary trade, and expanded products and trading partners. Post-acquisition trade performance also exhibited heterogeneity based on the different pre-acquisition and post-acquisition ownership. As for the underlying mechanisms, we show that firms experienced significant output expansion, increased export dependence, and eased financial constraints after foreign acquisition.

我们通过比较中国的外资并购企业与同类内资并购企业在并购后国际贸易绩效方面的变化,研究了外资所有权与国际贸易绩效之间的因果关系。我们的研究结果表明,外资所有权大大提高了出口和进口的概率,并有力地增加了贸易额。外资所有权从并购当年开始生效,并持续至少两年。外资所有权刺激了加工贸易和一般贸易,扩大了产品和贸易伙伴。根据收购前和收购后所有权的不同,收购后的贸易表现也呈现出异质性。至于内在机制,我们发现企业在外资并购后经历了显著的产出扩张、出口依赖度提高和财务约束缓解。
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引用次数: 0
Catalysts or Barriers? The Impacts of Natural Disasters on Internal Labor Migration in China 催化剂还是障碍?自然灾害对中国国内劳动力迁移的影响
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12523
Xingyu Zhou, Liu Han, Jidong Chen

This paper discusses ways in which negative economic shocks captured by natural disasters can shape internal labor migration in China. The impact of negative economic shocks on migration depends on the combination of two opposite driving forces: (i) negative economic shocks can make staying in the affected area less profitable, thus enhancing returns to migration; (ii) the shocks can make it more difficult to migrate out, thus inducing a higher fixed cost of migration. Based on a nationwide dataset of China, this paper shows that when natural disasters were not severe, they caused migration out of rural areas. With sufficiently severe damage, however, the negative effect of natural disasters could be mitigated by villages' prior migrant networks. Specifically, with a severe shock, only clan members were able to migrate in response to natural disasters and enjoyed the complementary effects of prior migrant networks, as they could receive more help from social capital.

本文讨论了自然灾害引发的负面经济冲击如何影响中国国内劳动力迁移。负面经济冲击对人口迁移的影响取决于两种相反驱动力的结合:(i) 负面经济冲击会降低留在灾区的利润,从而提高移民的回报率;(ii) 负面经济冲击会增加移民的难度,从而提高移民的固定成本。本文基于中国全国范围内的数据集研究表明,当自然灾害并不严重时,会导致农村人口向外迁移。然而,当灾害造成的损失足够严重时,村庄先前的移民网络可以减轻自然灾害的负面影响。具体而言,在受到严重冲击的情况下,只有宗族成员能够在应对自然灾害时迁移,并享受先前移民网络的互补效应,因为他们可以从社会资本中获得更多帮助。
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引用次数: 0
Whether to Abolish or Introduce Dual Regulation as Trade and Environmental Policy? 是废除还是引入作为贸易和环境政策的双重监管?
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-29 DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12516
Yoshihiro Hamaguchi

China, which has already introduced an environmental tax in an effort to decarbonize, has recently begun emissions trading and is using two environmental policies in tandem, but there are concerns about the impact on growth and trade. Trade and environmental policies affect firms' entry and exit, resulting in changes in aggregate productivity and pollution emissions. This study compares the impacts of single regulation and dual regulation on welfare, using a research-and-development based growth model with heterogeneous firms. Under single regulation, the cleansing effect of trade liberalization could be undermined. Under dual regulation, trade liberalization decreases pollution and improves average productivity whereas decreasing total permits reduces pollution. From the perspective of improving welfare it is desirable to choose dual regulation because trade liberalization can reduce total pollution emissions via the cleansing effect of trade liberalization.

中国为去碳化已经开征了环境税,最近又开始了排污权交易,同时使用两种环境政策,但对增长和贸易的影响令人担忧。贸易和环境政策会影响企业的进入和退出,从而导致总生产率和污染排放的变化。本研究采用基于研发的异质企业增长模型,比较了单一监管和双重监管对福利的影响。在单一监管下,贸易自由化的清洁效应可能会被削弱。在双重监管下,贸易自由化会减少污染并提高平均生产率,而减少许可总量则会减少污染。从改善福利的角度来看,选择双重监管是可取的,因为贸易自由化可以通过贸易自由化的净化效应减少污染排放总量。
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引用次数: 0
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China & World Economy
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