China & World Economy最新文献

In the context of China's efforts to establish a global network of free trade areas and diversify its export products, this study explores the impact of trade agreement depth on China's export diversification. Building upon a trade model with multiproduct firms, we discover that the effect of trade agreement depth on export diversification is multifaceted, depending on the relative magnitude of the “market expansion effect” and the “competition intensification effect.” Through empirical analysis of China's exports to 132 countries (or regions) from 2000 to 2015, we find that the deepening of trade agreements affected China's export diversification negatively. This negative correlation was predominantly due to the similarity in comparative advantages between China and its trade partners, leading to the “competition intensification effect” overshadowing the “market expansion effect.” We also note that “natural” agreements, when deepened, were more likely to affect China's export diversification adversely than their “non-natural” counterparts. Moreover, as export diversification increased, the marginal impact of deepening trade agreements exhibited an inverted U-shaped trajectory.

Decentralization can alter the incentive structure of local governments and one outcome of this is debt accumulation. Based on the “Province-Managing-County” pilot policy, a fiscal decentralization reform devolving fiscal power from the prefecture-level city to the county level, we assess the impact of fiscal decentralization on local government debt using a difference-in-differences model with a unique county-level dataset from 2011 to 2019. According to the study findings, the “Province-Managing-County” reform resulted in an average increase of 5.758 percent in the local government debt ratio across the pilot counties. Mechanism analyses suggest that this may have arisen from changes in the incentive structure, including external pressures from government assessments and internal developmental needs for promotion, leading to a rise in expenditure pressures on local governments. The role of supervision in mitigating the impact of fiscal decentralization on debt growth was also demonstrated, indicating that an appropriate supervision mechanism must be in place in conjunction with a decentralization policy.

This study examines the impact of the digital revolution on the job quality of workers with a specific focus on those at the lowest end of the spectrum in China's domestic labor market. Leveraging exogenous timing variations that result from the implementation of the Broadband China Program across different cities, it provides quasi-experimental evidence concerning the effects of the digital revolution on the job quality of lower class workers, particularly rural–urban migrant workers. Using data from China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this study reveals that migrants' comprehensive job quality index increased by 0.0138 (5.33 percent), and its component indices experienced positive effects after the Broadband China Program was implemented. This study also investigates heterogeneous policy treatment effects among workers with diverse demographic and occupational characteristics. Underlying mechanisms are considered, including positive macroeconomic shocks, increased social interactions, and Internet use. In particular, migrants' attitudes toward local settlement became more positive, suggesting that the positive effects of the digital revolution on livelihood lasted for some time. Taking China as an example, this study contributes valuable empirical evidence of how the digital revolution can affect lower class workers' employment or living conditions in a developing country. Related policy implications are also considered.

China's exports experienced a rapid recovery after the outbreak of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic. A primary engine was cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) trade, which bucked the downward export trend during the pandemic. By exploring the variation in the number of CBEC comprehensive pilot zones across provinces, we identified the causal impact of CBEC on exports using monthly province–product–destination data for 2019 and 2020. We found strong and robust evidence that CBEC contributed to exports during the pandemic by promoting the expansion of incumbent exports (intensive margin) rather than through the expansion of product categories and exporting partners (extensive margin). Specifically, higher pandemic risk suppressed the role of CBEC at the intensive margin while enhancing it at the extensive margin. Exports to developed countries benefited more from CBEC, both intensively and extensively. Compared with final products, a larger number of intermediate products were exported through CBEC after the outbreak of the pandemic.

This study explores the effects of bureaucratic culture on innovation. We define bureaucratic culture as a culture in which power and officials are held in the highest regard. Using panel data of publicly listed Chinese manufacturing firms from 2007 to 2015, we found that bureaucratic culture negatively correlated with firms' patent output. A mechanism analysis shows that bureaucratic culture hindered corporate innovation by reducing firms' research and development inputs and decreasing innovation efficiency. Furthermore, we provided evidence that anti-corruption campaigns and the development of formal institutions could neutralize the negative impact of bureaucratic culture on corporate innovation. This study is the first to investigate quantitatively the causal effect of bureaucratic culture on corporate innovation and it can deepen the understanding of the relationship between culture and innovation in China. We speculate that promoting a creative culture, particularly one that fosters entrepreneurial spirit, is of utmost importance.

In this research we investigate the association between local state capacity (LSC) and effective tax burdens (ETBs) on industrial firms within counties between 1998 and 2013. The LSC measures a state's capacity for policy implementation and specifically its ability to acquire low-cost agricultural land for nonagricultural (industrial or commercial) purposes. Based on China's government-led development experience since the 1990s, we draw on two unique household survey datasets to capture LSC at county level. We find robust evidence that greater LSC was associated with much lower ETBs on large industrial firms. This taxation pattern implies local government's primary reliance on larger manufacturing firms, while the ETBs for small-and-medium enterprises are not as prominently addressed. This research highlights that LSC can affect both the amount of revenue a local government can generate and the methods it uses to collect these revenues.

This paper investigates whether changing the seating arrangement in a classroom can facilitate positive spillovers from top-performing students to others, using a field experiment conducted in a Chinese high school. Among study groups with balanced abilities, the treatment altered the spatial distribution by assigning the two top students to seats in the spatial center of each group. In the reference groups where students were allowed to choose their own seating arrangements, the lowest performing were significantly less likely to sit next to a top student than they would be under a random assignment. The results suggest that, in the treated groups, there could be enhanced academic spillovers from the top students. The treatment especially benefited the two lowest performing students in science subjects. In contrast, the treatment exerted negative effects on the test scores of the two middle-performing students, due to a disruption mechanism. The results suggest that the spatial layout of a peer network can have a significant impact on learning outcomes.

This paper investigates the effect of environmental policy on income inequality. It focuses on the central environmental protection inspection led by the central government in China. Using a difference-in-differences approach, it finds evidence that environmental regulation decreased the per capita income and enlarged the gap between urban and rural income while showing an insignificant effect on employment. Although the policy can reduce pollution levels and bring environmental benefits in aggregate, the findings of this study suggest that the regulations appear to have reduced the proportion of manufacturing industry and hindered general innovation and investment from entrepreneurs, which resulted in greater inequality. Rural residents suffered more from environmental regulation due to relatively high migration costs and their disadvantaged human resources on the aspects of health, education level, and skills. The local government's execution incentive can also play a key role in the effectiveness of environmental policy. Regions with lower GDP growth targets and younger government leaders were affected significantly with regard to the income growth of local residents and the urban–rural income gap.

This study examines the impact of employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs) on stock-price informativeness in Chinese stock markets. Its findings indicate that firms implementing ESOPs experienced an average 11.89 percent increase in stock-price informativeness. The plans improved stock-price informativeness through increased external attention and supervision. An event study shows that ESOPs gave rise to an announcement effect, driven by anticipated performance improvements and the novelty associated with ESOPs. A mechanism analysis demonstrates that the implementation of ESOPs attracted market attention, and the increased market supervision resulting from this mitigated the moral hazards of management associated with ESOPs. Plans with more positive signals exerted a greater influence. Notably, ESOPs that prioritized management incentives gained more recognition in the market. As the incentive effects of ESOPs were weaker than those of equity incentive plans and the ESOPs lost novelty over time, the annual announcement effect diminished gradually. These findings underscore the necessity of strengthening ESOP incentives for continued optimization of price efficiency.