Pub Date : 1999-06-01DOI: 10.1080/09638199900000011
Devashish Mitra
Within a two-sector dynamic framework with external economies in one sector (which give rise to the possibility of multiple equilibria) and convex adjustment costs, this paper provides a welfare ranlung of movements towards the two stable equilibria, solves for the optimal speed of industrialization and derives the shape of the social planner's optimal resource allocation path. These results show that one should be cautious in drawing policy implications from static models of coordination failures. Moreover, this paper also argues that a reduction in adjustment costs (e.g. through the provision of public education facilities) is an essential precondition for industrialization when the existing industrial base is thin.
{"title":"History, coordination and optimality: some policy lessons","authors":"Devashish Mitra","doi":"10.1080/09638199900000011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199900000011","url":null,"abstract":"Within a two-sector dynamic framework with external economies in one sector (which give rise to the possibility of multiple equilibria) and convex adjustment costs, this paper provides a welfare ranlung of movements towards the two stable equilibria, solves for the optimal speed of industrialization and derives the shape of the social planner's optimal resource allocation path. These results show that one should be cautious in drawing policy implications from static models of coordination failures. Moreover, this paper also argues that a reduction in adjustment costs (e.g. through the provision of public education facilities) is an essential precondition for industrialization when the existing industrial base is thin.","PeriodicalId":51656,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Trade & Economic Development","volume":"46 1","pages":"185-193"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"1999-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87810912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1999-06-01DOI: 10.1080/09638199900000010
A. Goh
This paper investigates the link between trade and fertility in developing countries. Household fertility is determined by the time cost of children. Women working in the manufacturing sector face a higher time cost, and hence desire fewer children than women working in the agricultural sector. If the developing country has a comparative advantage in labour-intensive manufactures, then trade raises the demand for female labour in the manufacturing sector, thus lowering fertility.
{"title":"Trade, employment and fertility transition","authors":"A. Goh","doi":"10.1080/09638199900000010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199900000010","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the link between trade and fertility in developing countries. Household fertility is determined by the time cost of children. Women working in the manufacturing sector face a higher time cost, and hence desire fewer children than women working in the agricultural sector. If the developing country has a comparative advantage in labour-intensive manufactures, then trade raises the demand for female labour in the manufacturing sector, thus lowering fertility.","PeriodicalId":51656,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Trade & Economic Development","volume":"95 1","pages":"143-184"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"1999-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83711296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1999-06-01DOI: 10.1080/09638199900000014
Hillel Rapoport
{"title":"Economic integration, industrial policy and institutional design in the developing world","authors":"Hillel Rapoport","doi":"10.1080/09638199900000014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199900000014","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51656,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Trade & Economic Development","volume":"35 1","pages":"231-240"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"1999-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91091630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1999-03-01DOI: 10.1080/09638199900000008
A. McKay, O. Morrissey, Charlotte Vaillant
Tanzania is among the many African countries that have engaged in agricultural liberalization since the mid-1980s. in the hope that reforms that introduce price incentives and efficient marketing will encourage producers to respond. This paper assesses that claim by examining the supply response of agricultural output in Tanzania. Our estimates suggest that aggregate agricultural supply response is quite high so that the potential for agricultural sector response to liberalization of agricultural prices and marketing may be quite significant. The long-run elasticity of aggregate food crop output to relative prices was almost unity. Short-run supply responses were estimated at about 0.35 for aggregate food crops and for all (food and export) crops. Liberalization of agricultural markets, where it increases the effective prices paid to farmers, can be effective in promoting production, although complementary interventions, to improve infrastructure, marketing, access to inputs and credit, improved production technology etc, are probably necessary.
{"title":"Aggregate supply response in Tanzanian agriculture","authors":"A. McKay, O. Morrissey, Charlotte Vaillant","doi":"10.1080/09638199900000008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199900000008","url":null,"abstract":"Tanzania is among the many African countries that have engaged in agricultural liberalization since the mid-1980s. in the hope that reforms that introduce price incentives and efficient marketing will encourage producers to respond. This paper assesses that claim by examining the supply response of agricultural output in Tanzania. Our estimates suggest that aggregate agricultural supply response is quite high so that the potential for agricultural sector response to liberalization of agricultural prices and marketing may be quite significant. The long-run elasticity of aggregate food crop output to relative prices was almost unity. Short-run supply responses were estimated at about 0.35 for aggregate food crops and for all (food and export) crops. Liberalization of agricultural markets, where it increases the effective prices paid to farmers, can be effective in promoting production, although complementary interventions, to improve infrastructure, marketing, access to inputs and credit, improved production technology etc, are probably necessary.","PeriodicalId":51656,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Trade & Economic Development","volume":"48 3 1","pages":"107-123"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"1999-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89598405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1999-03-01DOI: 10.1080/09638199900000002
D. Nelson
This paper provides a critical review of current research on formal modelling of the political economy of policy reform. It ultimately argues that, due to the complexity of policy reform situations, at least as currently constructed, these models do not possess sufficient systematic content to form the basis of empirical research or policy advice.
{"title":"The political economy of trade policy reform: social complexity and methodological pluralism","authors":"D. Nelson","doi":"10.1080/09638199900000002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199900000002","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a critical review of current research on formal modelling of the political economy of policy reform. It ultimately argues that, due to the complexity of policy reform situations, at least as currently constructed, these models do not possess sufficient systematic content to form the basis of empirical research or policy advice.","PeriodicalId":51656,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Trade & Economic Development","volume":"3 1","pages":"3-26"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"1999-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75245166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1999-03-01DOI: 10.1080/09638199900000006
Sam Laird
The WTO has increased international disciplines and sends more consistent signals than the GATT on export policy. Although there is still scope for the use of subsidies, various other measures may be useful as a transitional device towards more outward oriented policies and it is also important to eliminate internal constraints to export. Even where permitted measures are used to stimulate exports, they may still be vulnerable to counter measures, such as anti-dumping duties, in foreign markets. Domestic programmes can be complemented by continued efforts to open markets in trade negotiations.
{"title":"Export policy and the WTO","authors":"Sam Laird","doi":"10.1080/09638199900000006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199900000006","url":null,"abstract":"The WTO has increased international disciplines and sends more consistent signals than the GATT on export policy. Although there is still scope for the use of subsidies, various other measures may be useful as a transitional device towards more outward oriented policies and it is also important to eliminate internal constraints to export. Even where permitted measures are used to stimulate exports, they may still be vulnerable to counter measures, such as anti-dumping duties, in foreign markets. Domestic programmes can be complemented by continued efforts to open markets in trade negotiations.","PeriodicalId":51656,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Trade & Economic Development","volume":"208 1","pages":"73-88"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"1999-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86952049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1999-03-01DOI: 10.1080/09638199900000003
V. Balasubramanyam, M. Salisu, D. Sapsford
This paper presents, within a new growth theory framework, an analysis of the role of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in promoting economic growth. Evidence reported suggests that an important role is exerted by both the size of the domestic market and the competitive climate in relation to local producers. In addition, evidence is reported to indicate that interactions between FDI and human capital exert an especially important influence upon growth performance.
{"title":"Foreign direct investment as an engine of growth","authors":"V. Balasubramanyam, M. Salisu, D. Sapsford","doi":"10.1080/09638199900000003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199900000003","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents, within a new growth theory framework, an analysis of the role of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in promoting economic growth. Evidence reported suggests that an important role is exerted by both the size of the domestic market and the competitive climate in relation to local producers. In addition, evidence is reported to indicate that interactions between FDI and human capital exert an especially important influence upon growth performance.","PeriodicalId":51656,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Trade & Economic Development","volume":"10 1","pages":"27-40"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"1999-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74593015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1999-03-01DOI: 10.1080/09638199900000005
A. Bigsten, P. Collier, S. Dercon, Marcel Fafcharnps, Bernard Gauthier, J. Gunning, Jean Habarurema, Anders Isaksson, A. Oduro, R. Oostendorp, Catherine A. Pattillo, Mans Soderborn, F. Teal, Albert G. Zeufack
Macro policy has changed the real exchange rates for African countries dramatically in the 1990s. In this paper the possible impact of macroeconomic policy on firms in the manufacturing sector is considered based on a panel survey of such firms in Cameroon. Kenya, Ghana and Zimbabwe. The data show that most large African manufacturing firms do export, but most do not specialize in exporting. An export equation is estimated both for the propensity of the firms to export and the percentage of output exported. It is shown that a stable export function can be estimated for all four countries over the three rounds of the survey. While there is no evidence that real devaluations have effected a general rise in manufactured exports there is evidence from the surveys of a rise in the percentage of output exported from the Cameroon. Reasons for the lack of a general response to macro policy are suggested. In the Cameroon, large firms did increase their propensity to export. Understanding the links between macro policy and firm performance may require an understanding of how such policies impact on different types of firms.
{"title":"Exports of African manufactures: macro policy and firm behaviour","authors":"A. Bigsten, P. Collier, S. Dercon, Marcel Fafcharnps, Bernard Gauthier, J. Gunning, Jean Habarurema, Anders Isaksson, A. Oduro, R. Oostendorp, Catherine A. Pattillo, Mans Soderborn, F. Teal, Albert G. Zeufack","doi":"10.1080/09638199900000005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199900000005","url":null,"abstract":"Macro policy has changed the real exchange rates for African countries dramatically in the 1990s. In this paper the possible impact of macroeconomic policy on firms in the manufacturing sector is considered based on a panel survey of such firms in Cameroon. Kenya, Ghana and Zimbabwe. The data show that most large African manufacturing firms do export, but most do not specialize in exporting. An export equation is estimated both for the propensity of the firms to export and the percentage of output exported. It is shown that a stable export function can be estimated for all four countries over the three rounds of the survey. While there is no evidence that real devaluations have effected a general rise in manufactured exports there is evidence from the surveys of a rise in the percentage of output exported from the Cameroon. Reasons for the lack of a general response to macro policy are suggested. In the Cameroon, large firms did increase their propensity to export. Understanding the links between macro policy and firm performance may require an understanding of how such policies impact on different types of firms.","PeriodicalId":51656,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Trade & Economic Development","volume":"3 1","pages":"53-71"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"1999-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87417719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1999-03-01DOI: 10.1080/09638199900000004
D. Greenaway, W. Morgan, P. Wright
The relationship between trade and growth has been central to development economics with particular emphasis on the export-growth dynamic. The current paper is in the tradition of this literature but develops two new strands. First, it examines the exports-growth link in a dynamic fashion, providing a more rigorous approach than has been attempted previously. Second it explores the role of export composition in determining growth performance. By constructing a panel of 69 countries and using the dynamic model, the results generated suggest that there is a strong positive relationship between exports and growth. Further, it is apparent that the composition of those exports is important in determining the strength of growth.
{"title":"Exports, export composition and growth","authors":"D. Greenaway, W. Morgan, P. Wright","doi":"10.1080/09638199900000004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199900000004","url":null,"abstract":"The relationship between trade and growth has been central to development economics with particular emphasis on the export-growth dynamic. The current paper is in the tradition of this literature but develops two new strands. First, it examines the exports-growth link in a dynamic fashion, providing a more rigorous approach than has been attempted previously. Second it explores the role of export composition in determining growth performance. By constructing a panel of 69 countries and using the dynamic model, the results generated suggest that there is a strong positive relationship between exports and growth. Further, it is apparent that the composition of those exports is important in determining the strength of growth.","PeriodicalId":51656,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Trade & Economic Development","volume":"8 1","pages":"41-51"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"1999-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78747715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1999-03-01DOI: 10.1080/09638199900000007
M. Bleaney
The impact of trade reforms on economic performance in ten Latin American countries is examined using a panel data set of 17 annual observations. Each country is classified as 'reformed' or 'unreformed' in a given year, and the model tests whether reform improves performance across various dimensions. Both manufactured and total exports display greater real exchange rate and income elasticity after reform, but the effects have been offset by real exchange rate appreciation. Key 'real' variables such as GDP growth and investment ratios appear not to have improved.
{"title":"Trade reform, macroeconomic performance and export growth in ten Latin American countries, 1979–95","authors":"M. Bleaney","doi":"10.1080/09638199900000007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199900000007","url":null,"abstract":"The impact of trade reforms on economic performance in ten Latin American countries is examined using a panel data set of 17 annual observations. Each country is classified as 'reformed' or 'unreformed' in a given year, and the model tests whether reform improves performance across various dimensions. Both manufactured and total exports display greater real exchange rate and income elasticity after reform, but the effects have been offset by real exchange rate appreciation. Key 'real' variables such as GDP growth and investment ratios appear not to have improved.","PeriodicalId":51656,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Trade & Economic Development","volume":"52 1","pages":"89-105"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"1999-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73813571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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