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Big data-mediated repression: a novel form of preemptive repression in China’s Xinjiang region 以大数据为媒介的镇压:中国新疆地区先发制人镇压的一种新形式
IF 2 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-20 DOI: 10.1080/13569775.2023.2203568
L. I. Oztig
ABSTRACT Governments repress using different logics. Responsive repression is employed in the aftermath of dissent activities. Preemptive repression is applied in anticipation of challenges to the state's authority. This article brings a novel insight into the mechanism of preemptive repression by giving analytical weight to big data analytics. It is shown that a new type of preemptive repression has emerged in China's Xinjiang region. While targeted repression is generally associated with specific opposition groups, with the use of big data technology, China is now able to apply targeted repression against millions of Muslim minorities by processing data to predict dissent behaviour, which constitutes a radical transformation of preemptive repression. This article defines this mode of repression as ‘a techno-panoptic form of repression’ in which human behaviour is reduced to data and big data analytics becomes an instrument through which the state gains hyper-agency.
政府压制使用不同的逻辑。响应性镇压是在异议活动之后使用的。先发制人的镇压是在预期国家权威会受到挑战的情况下实施的。本文通过对大数据分析的分析权重,对先发制人的抑制机制提出了新的见解。这表明,在中国新疆地区出现了一种新型的先发制人的镇压。虽然有针对性的镇压通常与特定的反对派团体有关,但随着大数据技术的使用,中国现在能够通过处理数据来预测持不同政见者的行为,对数百万穆斯林少数民族实施有针对性的镇压,这构成了先发制人镇压的根本转变。本文将这种压制模式定义为“一种技术全景形式的压制”,在这种压制中,人类行为被简化为数据,大数据分析成为国家获得超级代理的工具。
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引用次数: 0
Anti-democratic youth? The influence of youth cohort size and quality of democracy on young people’s support for democracy 反民主青年吗?青年群体规模和民主质量对青年支持民主的影响
IF 2 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.1080/13569775.2023.2196877
G. Nkansah, A. Bartha
ABSTRACT This paper aims to investigate whether a country’s youth cohort size and quality of democracy, independently and jointly predict young people’s propensity to support democracy as a political system. We use pooled data from World Values Survey Waves 5–7, comprising 81 country-waves with 25,125 observations from 39 established and new democracies, in multilevel binary logistic regression analyses. The paper finds evidence that firstly, against conventional expectations, a large youth cohort exerts a positive influence on young people’s support for democracy as a political system. Secondly, the effect of youth cohort size depends on the quality of democracy of countries: young people growing as part of the youth cohorts in established democracies show stronger propensities to support democracy than their peers in new democracies. This has implications for both theory and empirical research.
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引用次数: 0
The Islamic State, Shia religious clerics and the mobilisation of Shia militias in Iraq and Syria 伊斯兰国、什叶派宗教神职人员以及伊拉克和叙利亚什叶派民兵的动员
IF 2 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.1080/13569775.2023.2196875
Ali Akbar, B. Isakhan
ABSTRACT This article focuses on the Islamic State’s (IS) attacks on Shia communities and their holy sites across Iraq and Syria and explores the responses of key Shia religious and political leaders. It demonstrates how these Shia elites utilised sophisticated mobilisation frames to admonish their followers to take up arms against the IS. To do so, these Shia elites drew on Shia religious symbols and historical events that emphasise Shia suffering at the hands of Sunni forces and highlighted the urgent need to protect Shia communities and their holy sites. The article also demonstrates how these mobilisation frames were malleable in the hands of different Shia elites and were instrumentalized to advance both national (defend the country) and transnational goals (defend Shia Islam). The article concludes by noting that this study of the complex motives underpinning Shia mobilisation has implications beyond the case of contemporary Iraq and Syria.
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引用次数: 0
European union crisis-induced institutional evolution. The effect of institutional entrepreneurship in the formation of EFSF 欧盟危机引发的制度演变。制度企业家精神在EFSF形成中的作用
IF 2 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-05 DOI: 10.1080/13569775.2023.2195693
Eleftherios (Lefteris) Karchimakis
ABSTRACT This paper conducts an in-depth case study of the 2010 Greek entrepreneurship attempts that led to the EFSF's creation, aiming to theorise crisis-induced institutional change in the EU. This research aims to cover the theoretical gap left by existing literature by combining theoretical elements derived from historical institutionalism and institutional entrepreneurship. Crises function as critical junctures. During critical junctures, the structural grip of path dependency loosens; thus, a multitude of paths forward are available. The choice of a specific path, if any, heavily relies on the concept of institutional entrepreneur. In 2010 the Greek government was such an agent, with interest in altering EU institutional design to overcome its financial ordeal and with direct access to the EU Council, the primary decision-making body regarding institutional change. The entrepreneur triggers a process of institutional change through their proposal. Once the entrepreneur chooses a path forward, this is further moulded by path dependencies.
本文对2010年希腊的创业尝试进行了深入的案例研究,该尝试导致了EFSF的创建,旨在对危机引发的欧盟制度变革进行理论分析。本研究旨在结合历史制度主义和制度企业家精神的理论元素,弥补现有文献留下的理论空白。危机是关键的转折点。在关键时刻,路径依赖的结构抓地力松动;因此,前进的道路有很多。具体路径的选择,如果有的话,在很大程度上依赖于制度企业家的概念。2010年,希腊政府就是这样一个代理人,有兴趣改变欧盟的制度设计,以克服其财政困境,并直接进入欧盟理事会,这是有关制度变革的主要决策机构。企业家通过他们的提议触发了制度变革的过程。一旦企业家选择了前进的道路,这将进一步受到路径依赖的影响。
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引用次数: 1
When institutions ‘bite’: Malaysia’s flawed democratisation 当制度“咬人”:马来西亚有缺陷的民主化
IF 2 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-22 DOI: 10.1080/13569775.2023.2185176
Abdillah Noh, N. H. Yashaiya
ABSTRACT While the expectation is that electoral turnover spurred by change agents will translate to political reform and/or consolidation of reform, recent outcomes have been disappointing. Taking the example of Malaysia’s recent political change, we argue that carrying out political reform and consolidating them remain elusive because there are strong tendencies by all parties – change agents included – to stay invested to aspects of state’s institutional qualities. We explain that institutions ‘bite’; that change agents are not completely free agents because political reform remains highly dependent on existing institutional qualities, the so-called rules of the game. While new reform ideas hold promises of change, issues of path dependence, increasing returns, and dense institutional networks impose challenges to actors making them highly invested in existing institutional mixes resulting in a botched democratisation effort.
虽然人们期望由变革推动者推动的选举更替将转化为政治改革和/或巩固改革,但最近的结果令人失望。以马来西亚最近的政治变革为例,我们认为,进行政治改革和巩固政治改革仍然是难以捉摸的,因为所有政党——包括变革推动者——都有强烈的倾向,要继续投资于国家制度质量的各个方面。我们解释说,制度“咬人”;变革的推动者并不是完全自由的推动者,因为政治改革仍然高度依赖于现有的制度质量,即所谓的游戏规则。虽然新的改革理念带来了变革的希望,但路径依赖、回报增加和密集的制度网络等问题给参与者带来了挑战,使他们高度投资于现有的制度组合,从而导致拙劣的民主化努力。
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引用次数: 0
Contagious politics and COVID-19: does the infectious disease hit populist supporters harder? 传染性政治与COVID-19:传染病对民粹主义支持者的打击更大吗?
IF 2 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-12 DOI: 10.1080/13569775.2023.2175488
Aline Burni, Daniel Stockemer, C. Hackenesch
ABSTRACT As an example of a typical right-wing populist, Jair Bolsonaro downplayed Covid-19 and rejected scientific evidence to address the pandemic. We argue that both his communication style and approach to crisis management had consequences for the behavioural patterns of his followers, which, in turn, had public health implications. Building on survey research, we demonstrate how Bolsonaro’s supporters were less likely to consider the pandemic as a key challenge for the country, less worried about getting infected and less likely to wear masks. We show that this ‘riskier’ behaviour had concrete repercussions. Even after controlling for confounders such as population density, age, education and wealth, municipalities with higher aggregate support for Bolsonaro had higher Covid-19 infection rates in 2020 and saw more people dying from the virus.
作为典型的右翼民粹主义者,雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗(Jair Bolsonaro)淡化了Covid-19,并拒绝接受应对疫情的科学证据。我们认为,他的沟通风格和危机管理方法都对他的追随者的行为模式产生了影响,这反过来又对公共卫生产生了影响。在调查研究的基础上,我们展示了博索纳罗的支持者如何不太可能将疫情视为该国的关键挑战,不太担心被感染,也不太可能戴口罩。我们表明,这种“风险更大”的行为产生了具体的影响。即使在控制了人口密度、年龄、教育和财富等混杂因素后,对博尔索纳罗总体支持度较高的城市,在2020年的Covid-19感染率也较高,死于该病毒的人数也更多。
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引用次数: 2
Armed forces and airwaves: media control and military coups in autocracies 武装部队和电波:独裁国家的媒体控制和军事政变
IF 2 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-05 DOI: 10.1080/13569775.2023.2173874
Tanja Eschenauer-Engler
ABSTRACT Media play a key role in military coups. Yet, there is little research on information environments and coups. Therefore, this article asks whether the extent of media control affects coup attempts and coup success in dictatorships. It argues that autocracies with extensive media control offer an opaque decision environment for plotters, thus decreasing the likelihood of coup attempts. On the outcome stage, extensive media control is expected to lower the prospects of success as conspirators struggle to control public information. Additionally, coups are disaggregated, arguing that the effect of media control varies between regime change and leader reshuffling coups. The arguments are tested by employing regression analyses. As expected, strong media control renders coup attempts and success less likely. While I do not find robust evidence for a varying effect of media control on different types of coup attempts, its influence on coup success is driven by regime change coups.
摘要媒体在军事政变中扮演着重要角色。然而,关于信息环境和政变的研究却很少。因此,本文询问媒体控制的程度是否会影响独裁政权的政变企图和政变成功。它认为,拥有广泛媒体控制的独裁政权为策划者提供了一个不透明的决策环境,从而降低了政变企图的可能性。在结果阶段,由于阴谋者难以控制公共信息,广泛的媒体控制预计会降低成功的前景。此外,对政变进行了分类,认为媒体控制的效果因政权更迭和领导人改组政变而异。通过回归分析来检验这些论点。不出所料,强大的媒体控制使政变企图和成功的可能性降低。虽然我没有找到有力的证据表明媒体控制对不同类型的政变企图有不同的影响,但它对政变成功的影响是由政权更迭政变驱动的。
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引用次数: 0
Iran’s soft power in the Middle East via the promotion of the Persian language 通过波斯语的推广,伊朗在中东的软实力
IF 2 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-24 DOI: 10.1080/13569775.2023.2169305
Ali Akbar
ABSTRACT This article explores the language-related instruments Tehran uses to pursue its soft power goals in the Middle East. The article first defines soft power and the role of language in its promotion, and then summarises Iran’s overall Persian-language strategies across the region. The main part of the article uses a rich array of primary source material in Persian to focus specifically on Tehran’s efforts to use the Persian language as a soft power resource in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria. The article demonstrates that over the last decade, Iran has increasingly engaged in strategies to enhance its soft power reach in these countries through the development of Persian language programmes. It argues that Iran at times uses the promotion of the Persian language to further other soft power goals, such as the development of its key foreign policy platforms and the spread of Shiism based on the context.
摘要本文探讨了德黑兰为实现其在中东的软实力目标而使用的语言工具。文章首先定义了软实力和语言在其推广中的作用,然后总结了伊朗在该地区的总体波斯语战略。文章的主要部分使用了丰富的波斯语原始资料,特别关注德黑兰在黎巴嫩、伊拉克和叙利亚使用波斯语作为软实力资源的努力。这篇文章表明,在过去十年中,伊朗越来越多地采取战略,通过发展波斯语项目来提高其在这些国家的软实力。它认为,伊朗有时会利用推广波斯语来推进其他软实力目标,例如发展其关键的外交政策平台和在此背景下传播什叶派。
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引用次数: 0
BRICS countries’ annual intergovernmental declaration: why does it matter for world politics? 金砖国家年度政府间宣言:为什么这对世界政治很重要?
IF 2 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-17 DOI: 10.1080/13569775.2023.2167340
Adeelah Kodabux
ABSTRACT At their yearly summit, the bloc of the Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS) countries issues an annual intergovernmental declaration. While these declarations are scrutinised for challenges they allegedly represent for global affairs, how they self-construct a positive representation about their global purpose is little studied. Notably, there is insufficient examination of the political deliberations behind the statements among the five different countries. By conducting a thematic content analysis based on coding content of the first ten intergovernmental declarations from 2009 to 2018, it is found that BRICS countries speak positively of their cooperative role to solve world problems without mentioning any internal disagreement. In parallel, they present Western institutions negatively in their communication strategy. An absence of deliberations does not imply an apolitical discourse. On the contrary, it can be a deliberate political communication strategy especially among the five different countries aiming to showcase alignment about their purpose in world politics.
摘要在一年一度的金砖国家峰会上,金砖国家集团发布了年度政府间宣言。尽管这些宣言被仔细审查,以确定它们对全球事务所代表的挑战,但它们如何自我构建对其全球目标的积极代表却很少被研究。值得注意的是,对五个不同国家的声明背后的政治审议情况审查不足。通过对2009年至2018年前十次政府间宣言的编码内容进行主题内容分析,发现金砖国家积极评价其在解决世界问题方面的合作作用,而没有提及任何内部分歧。与此同时,他们在沟通策略中对西方机构提出了负面看法。不进行审议并不意味着进行非政治性的讨论。相反,这可能是一种深思熟虑的政治沟通策略,尤其是在五个不同的国家之间,旨在展示他们在世界政治中的一致性。
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引用次数: 0
COVID-19 and ‘the public’: U.K. government, discourse and the British Political Tradition 2019冠状病毒病与“公众”:英国政府、话语和英国政治传统
IF 2 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-11 DOI: 10.1080/13569775.2022.2162206
Alan Finlayson, L. Jarvis, M. Lister
ABSTRACT This article presents an original analysis of the U.K. government’s discursive response to COVID-19 across the first six months of the pandemic. Two arguments are made. First, representations of the state/people relationship were vital to the state’s storying and selling of its response to this crisis. And, second, despite populist-style inflections, the state/people relationship was typically constructed around a ‘government knows best’ claim associated with the ‘British Political Tradition’ (BPT). In making these arguments the article offers three contributions: (i) empirical, via an original thematic analysis of over 120 speeches, statements and documents from the U.K. government; (ii) analytical, via a new taxonomy of ways in which ‘the public’ is imagined and represented in political discourse; and (iii) theoretical, via conceptualisation of the flexible and adaptive discourse of the BPT.
摘要本文对英国政府在疫情前六个月对新冠肺炎的应对措施进行了原创分析。提出了两个论点。首先,国家/人民关系的表述对国家应对这场危机的故事讲述和宣传至关重要。其次,尽管有民粹主义风格的变化,但国家/人民关系通常是围绕着与“英国政治传统”(BPT)相关的“政府最了解”主张构建的。在提出这些论点时,本文提供了三个贡献:(i)通过对英国政府120多篇演讲、声明和文件的原始主题分析进行实证研究;(ii)通过对政治话语中“公众”的想象和表现方式的新分类进行分析;以及(iii)理论,通过对BPT的灵活和适应性话语的概念化。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Contemporary Politics
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