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Common and idiosyncratic components of Latin American business cycles connectedness 拉丁美洲商业周期连通性的常见和特殊组成部分
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-09 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2044979
Luciano Campos, Jesús Ruiz Andújar
ABSTRACT This paper investigates the evolution of business cycles synchronization in Latin America since the 1990ʹs. To do so, a Vector Autoregressive model is fed, alternatively, with the countries’ Industrial Production Indexes and with these series filtered by the US financial conditions index, which is considered a common component affecting business cycles in the region. Additionally, a Markov switching model is estimated to identify regional recessions. Our findings indicate that business cycles connectedness rise significantly during regional recessions and that the common factor plays an important role. The evidence supports the usefulness of policy coordination among Latin American economies to cushion the spillover effects of exogenous shocks, and helps to identify subgroups of countries for which such coordination is recommendable.
本文研究了20世纪90年代以来拉丁美洲经济周期同步性的演变。为此,矢量自回归模型(Vector Autoregressive model)被输入各国的工业生产指数(Industrial Production index),这些指数被美国金融状况指数(US financial conditions index)过滤,后者被认为是影响该地区商业周期的常见组成部分。此外,估计了一个马尔可夫切换模型来识别区域衰退。我们的研究结果表明,在区域经济衰退期间,商业周期连通性显著上升,共同因素起着重要作用。证据支持拉丁美洲经济体之间的政策协调有助于缓冲外生冲击的溢出效应,并有助于确定建议进行这种协调的国家亚组。
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引用次数: 0
CEO confidence bias and strategic choice: a general framework CEO信心偏差与战略选择:一个一般框架
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-07 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2053829
Elizabeth Schroeder, C. Tremblay, Victor J. Tremblay
ABSTRACT An owner of a firm may choose to hire an unbiased CEO or one with confidence bias. We develop a model that demonstrates that the owner’s optimal choice depends on whether the firm and rival choice variables are strategic substitutes or strategic complements. When choice variables are strategic substitutes or strategic complements for both firms, owners optimize by hiring overconfident CEOs. When choice variables are substitutes for one firm and complements for the rival firm, each firm optimizes by hiring an underconfident CEO. We show that the model applies to price and output competition, advertising, research and development spending, and product design.
一个公司的所有者可以选择雇佣一个没有偏见的CEO,也可以选择一个有信心偏见的CEO。我们建立了一个模型,证明所有者的最优选择取决于企业和竞争对手的选择变量是战略替代还是战略互补。当选择变量是两家公司的战略替代或战略互补时,所有者通过雇佣过度自信的ceo来优化。当选择变量是一家公司的替代品和竞争对手公司的补充时,每家公司都通过雇用不自信的首席执行官来实现优化。我们表明,该模型适用于价格和产出竞争、广告、研发支出和产品设计。
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引用次数: 2
Modelling time and frequency connectedness among energy, agricultural raw materials and food markets 能源、农业原材料和食品市场之间的时间和频率联系建模
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-04-27 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2056300
M. A. Adeleke, O. Awodumi
ABSTRACT The study analyzes volatility connectedness of energy, agricultural raw materials and food markets for both time and frequency domains (January 1960 to August 2020). The DY and BK approaches are adopted at both commodity-group and sub-group levels. Time domain estimates indicate that the energy market produced more risk spillover in the food market than raw material market. Rubber contributes the largest to spillover in the crude oil and sugar markets. Estimates from frequency domain reveal that raw material and food markets are net transmitter and net recipient of volatility spillover, respectively, at the lowest and highest frequency domains. Crude oil is the largest source of spillover in the tobacco, meat and natural gas markets in the high-frequency band. Finally, the meat and crude oil markets are the largest receiver of shock spillover from all other markets over the low- and high-frequency bands, respectively. Policy implications are derived from the findings.
本研究分析了能源、农业原材料和食品市场在时间和频率域(1960年1月至2020年8月)的波动连通性。DY和BK方法在商品组和子组水平上都被采用。时域估计表明,能源市场在食品市场产生的风险溢出比原材料市场更大。橡胶对原油和食糖市场的溢出效应贡献最大。频域估计表明,原材料和粮食市场分别在最低频域和最高频域是波动性溢出的净发送者和净接受者。原油是烟草、肉类和天然气市场高频波段外溢的最大来源。最后,肉类和原油市场分别是所有其他市场在低频段和高频波段冲击溢出效应的最大受害国。研究结果对政策产生了影响。
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引用次数: 4
Corporate value and trade-credit policies: evidence from China 企业价值与贸易信贷政策:来自中国的证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-04-17 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2045467
Umeair Shahzad, Lingge Zhao, Jing Liu, Fukai Luo
ABSTRACT This study evaluates the nexus of enterprise value and trade-credit strategies. Fixed-effects modeling is used for the baseline outcomes, and a difference-in-difference approach is applied as a quasi-natural experiment. The estimates are robust to alternative measures and distant covariates. The findings validate that enterprise value has a positive (negative) impact on trade-credit (supplies), (demand). The said effect is more pronounced in SOEs, revealing a critical role in capital mobilization. The additional analyses show that financially constrained and equity reliant firms are more likely to exploit firm value in trade-credit management. The micro aspect of this study suggests that enterprise value can allow managers to shape non-price competitive strategies and it also offers incentives to maintain financial slack. On a macro level, the study suggests that enterprise value has a critical role in capital mobilization and enhancing the purchasing power in the overall economy.
摘要本研究旨在评估企业价值与贸易信用策略之间的关系。基线结果采用固定效应模型,准自然实验采用差分法。这些估计对于替代测量和远距离协变量是稳健的。研究结果验证了企业价值对贸易信贷(供应)、(需求)具有正(负)影响。这种效应在国有企业中更为明显,揭示了国有企业在资本动员中的关键作用。额外的分析表明,资金受限和股权依赖的公司更有可能在贸易信贷管理中利用公司价值。本研究的微观方面表明,企业价值可以让管理者形成非价格竞争战略,它也提供了保持财务宽松的激励。在宏观层面上,研究表明企业价值在资本动员和提高整体经济购买力方面具有关键作用。
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引用次数: 3
Value-at-risk in the presence of asset price bubbles 存在资产价格泡沫时的风险价值
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-04-12 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2021.1927441
R. Kwong, H. Wong
ABSTRACT In this study, we respond to the criticism that the value-at-risk (VaR) measure fails during financial crises and is only applicable during periods without asset price bubbles. We propose a new dating mechanism that is based on the work of Phillips (2015) to date-stamp the origination and termination of the asset price bubbles. Our method relaxed the minimum bubble duration constraint in the original model, and the empirical application statistically identified the bubbles periods in nine stock markets (Australia, Canada, China, Germany, Spain, Hong Kong, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States). We choose the two most widely adopted VaR models (RiskMetrics and RiskMetrics 2006) to test the performance. Our results show that the RiskMetrics model fails in most periods, whereas the RiskMetrics 2006 performs efficiently in the periods with asset price bubbles. These results prove the criticism that all the VaR models fail during crises as invalid.
在本研究中,我们对风险价值(VaR)衡量在金融危机中失效以及仅适用于没有资产价格泡沫时期的批评做出了回应。基于Phillips(2015)的工作,我们提出了一种新的日期机制,以确定资产价格泡沫的产生和终止的日期。我们的方法放宽了原始模型中的最小泡沫持续时间约束,实证应用统计识别了九个股票市场(澳大利亚、加拿大、中国、德国、西班牙、香港、日本、英国和美国)的泡沫周期。我们选择了两个最广泛采用的VaR模型(RiskMetrics和RiskMetrics 2006)来测试性能。我们的研究结果表明,RiskMetrics模型在大多数时期失败,而RiskMetrics 2006在资产价格泡沫时期表现有效。这些结果证明了所有VaR模型在危机期间失效的批评是无效的。
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引用次数: 0
Money demand under a fixed exchange rate regime: the case of Saudi Arabia 固定汇率制度下的货币需求:以沙特阿拉伯为例
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-04-11 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2039889
F. Hasanov, Moayad H. Al Rasasi, S. S. Alsayaary, Ziyad Alfawzan
ABSTRACT This paper reviews earlier studies and shows that the money demand (MD) relationship under a fixed exchange rate (ER) regime differs from that under a floating ER regime, mainly due to the limited role of monetary policy in the former regime. It then empirically demonstrates that an open-economy model augmented with country-specific factors is a better framework for characterizing the MD function under a fixed ER regime by applying cointegration and equilibrium correction modeling to the Saudi data as a case study. The main message for monetary authorities is that there are other factors, besides those theoretically predicted, shaping MD under a fixed ER regime. This information is important for providing adequate money supply to support economic growth and maintain the stability of the fixed ER, as well as for checking the stability of the MD to make appropriate policy decisions.
摘要本文回顾了早期的研究,表明固定汇率制度下的货币需求关系不同于浮动汇率制度下,主要是由于货币政策在固定汇率制度中的作用有限。然后,通过将协整和均衡校正模型应用于沙特数据作为案例研究,实证证明了在固定ER制度下,增加国家特定因素的开放经济模型是表征MD函数的更好框架。货币当局要传达的主要信息是,除了理论预测的因素外,还有其他因素在固定的ER制度下塑造MD。这些信息对于提供充足的货币供应以支持经济增长和保持固定汇率的稳定,以及检查MD的稳定性以做出适当的政策决策都很重要。
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引用次数: 4
Role of bank competition in determining liquidity creation: evidence from GCC countries 银行竞争在决定流动性创造中的作用:来自海湾合作委员会国家的证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-04-11 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2043114
Shoaib Ali, I. Yousaf, Sumayya Chughtai, Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah
ABSTRACT This study aims to investigate the impact of banking-sector concentration on the banks’ liquidity creation in GCC countries over the period from 2012 to 2018 by using a dynamic GMM panel procedure. The results suggest that increased bank competition reduces banks’ liquidity creation across the GCC countries. The study’s findings are in line with the ‘financial fragility hypothesis” according to which banks to reduce their lending activities when competition is high in the market. The evidence suggests that the banking industry is different from others, and pro-competitive policies in the banking industry can reduce liquidity provision by banks. In the context of policy implications, a concentrated banking system discourages capital provision to firms; hence, regulators have to take appropriate measures to resolve the problem of a reduced supply of capital. Government must regulate the banking sector by keeping in view their long-run goal as competition is a double-edged sword in banking.
摘要本研究旨在通过动态GMM小组程序,调查2012-2018年海湾合作委员会国家银行业集中度对银行流动性创造的影响。研究结果表明,银行竞争加剧降低了海湾合作委员会国家银行的流动性创造。这项研究的结果符合“金融脆弱性假说”,即当市场竞争激烈时,银行应减少贷款活动。证据表明,银行业与其他行业不同,银行业的亲竞争政策可以减少银行的流动性准备金。在政策影响方面,集中的银行系统不鼓励向企业提供资本;因此,监管机构必须采取适当措施来解决资本供应减少的问题。政府必须通过考虑银行业的长期目标来监管银行业,因为竞争是银行业的一把双刃剑。
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引用次数: 12
What drives risk in China’s soybean futures market? Evidence from a flexible GARCH-MIDAS model 是什么驱动了中国大豆期货市场的风险?来自灵活的GARCH-MIDAS模型的证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-04-05 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2046989
Xinyu Wang, Lele Zhang, Qiuying Cheng, Song Shi, Huawei Niu
ABSTRACT Modeling futures market risk simultaneously influenced by macro low-frequency information and daily risk factors is a valuable challenge. We propose a new general framework for it based on the flexible GARCH-MIDAS model. It uses a skewed t distribution to describe the asymmetry of long and short trading positions, allows for a different number of trading days per month, and can identify the optimal combination of risky factors. We also derive its impact response function on how low-frequency factors directly influence the high-frequency futures market risk. Through an exhaustive empirical analysis of the Chinese soybean futures market, we not only find its excellent out-of-sample market risk forecasting performance but also offer systematic recommendations for improving risk management.
摘要对同时受宏观低频信息和日常风险因素影响的期货市场风险进行建模是一项有价值的挑战。我们在灵活的GARCH-MIDAS模型的基础上提出了一个新的通用框架。它使用偏斜的t分布来描述多头和空头交易头寸的不对称性,允许每月有不同的交易天数,并可以确定风险因素的最佳组合。我们还推导了低频因素如何直接影响高频期货市场风险的影响响应函数。通过对中国大豆期货市场的详尽实证分析,我们不仅发现了其优秀的样本外市场风险预测性能,而且为改进风险管理提供了系统的建议。
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引用次数: 2
Exploring herding behavior in an innovative-oriented stock market: evidence from ChiNext 探索创新导向股票市场中的羊群行为:来自创业板的证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-04-04 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2050992
S. Ng, Zhehan Zhuang, Moau Yong Toh, T. Ong, B. Teh
ABSTRACT We adopt the cross-sectional absolute deviation model (CSAD) to test the herding behavior of ChiNext, a decade-old NASDAQ-style stock market in China, based on its stocks from 2015-2019. Our findings show that the herding behavior is prevalent, implying that such behavior is widespread in a relatively new stock market themed with growth-oriented innovative enterprises and dominated by individual investors instead of institutional investors. Moreover, we find that herding tends to be more severe during the periods of falling market than rising market. We explain that several distinct attributes of the individual investors cause them to sell during the falling market, an act contrary to the standard account of the “disposition effect of holding the losers” in behavioral finance. We contribute to the herding behavior literature for a relatively new innovative-oriented stock market as well as our understanding of the investors’ circumstances, which may disprove the often-quoted disposition effect.
摘要我们采用横截面绝对偏差模型(CSAD),以创业板2015-2019年的股票为基础,检验了创业板的羊群行为。我们的研究结果表明,羊群行为普遍存在,这意味着这种行为在一个以成长型创新企业为主题、由个人投资者而非机构投资者主导的相对较新的股票市场中普遍存在。此外,我们发现,在市场下跌的时期,羊群行为往往比市场上涨的时期更严重。我们解释说,个人投资者的几个不同属性导致他们在下跌的市场中抛售,这与行为金融中“持有失败者的处置效应”的标准解释相反。我们为一个相对较新的创新型股票市场的羊群行为文献以及我们对投资者环境的理解做出了贡献,这可能会推翻经常被引用的处置效应。
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引用次数: 3
Should I stay or should I go? migration intentions of teenagers with parents working abroad 我该留下还是走?父母在国外工作的青少年的移民意向
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-04-04 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2052001
Joanna Clifton-Sprigg
ABSTRACT This paper investigates how having a parent working abroad affects subsequent intentions of teenagers to emigrate, using unique data for Poland. Results show that parental employment abroad is positively associated with children’s intentions to emigrate, more so for males than females. The findings highlight the intergenerational nature of migratory trends within families. This is particularly important for a country like Poland, which alongside other Central and Eastern European economies, has been experiencing significant population outflows for almost two decades and is gradually turning towards a foreign-born workforce.
本文使用波兰的独特数据,调查了父母在国外工作如何影响青少年随后的移民意向。结果显示,父母在国外工作与子女的移民意愿呈正相关,男性比女性更明显。研究结果强调了家庭内部移民趋势的代际性质。这对于波兰这样的国家尤其重要,波兰与其他中东欧经济体一起,近20年来一直在经历大规模的人口外流,并逐渐转向外国出生的劳动力。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Journal of Applied Economics
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