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Forecasting 2030 CO2 reduction targets for Russia as a major emitter using different estimation scenarios 使用不同的估计情景预测俄罗斯作为主要排放国2030年的二氧化碳减排目标
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-11 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2146861
Sarvar Gurbanov, Jeyhun I. Mikayilov, Shahriyar Mukhtarov, Sakit Yagubov
ABSTRACT This study firstly analyzes the impact of energy intensities and income on CO2 emissions in Russia, applying different estimation methods to the data period from 1990 to 2020. In addition, the study forecasts CO2 emissions considering 2030 targets under different assumptions and assesses the achievability of the set target. The estimation results concluded that the GDP and fossil fuel intensities of GDP have a statistically positive impact on CO2 emissions. Also, we found that the forecasted value for 2030, for the business-as-usual case, is 1750 MtCO2, with 95% confidence interval values of 1703 MtCO2 and 1796 MtCO2. This result shows that Russia needs to undergo substantial policy interventions to achieve its targets to reduce CO2 emissions. As the fifth biggest emitter, Russia missing its emissions targets will have undesirable implications for the rest of the world. Based on the projection results, the paper discusses some potential policy interventions.
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引用次数: 1
Model definitions to identify appropriate benchmarks in judiciary 确定司法部门适当基准的示范定义
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-31 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2021.2021128
G. Falavigna, R. Ippoliti
ABSTRACT In this manuscript we present a comparative analysis of benchmarks based on technical efficiency scores computed using Data Envelopment Analysis with two different model specifications. In one case, we adopt the number of settled cases as output and human resources as input; in the other case, we adopt the same model definition but with judicial expenditure as additional key input. Our findings show that the model specification containing both judicial expenditure and human resources is more appropriate than the model based only on human resources. Moreover, we show that, without considering the additional variable costs generated within the production process, those courts incorrectly identified as benchmarks might mislead the policy makers dealing with the reform process.
在这篇论文中,我们提出了一个基于技术效率分数的基准的比较分析,使用数据包络分析计算了两种不同的模型规格。在一种情况下,我们采用结案数量作为输出,人力资源作为投入;在另一种情况下,我们采用相同的模型定义,但将司法支出作为额外的关键输入。我们的研究结果表明,包含司法支出和人力资源的模型规范比仅基于人力资源的模型更合适。此外,我们表明,如果不考虑生产过程中产生的额外可变成本,那些被错误地确定为基准的法院可能会误导处理改革过程的政策制定者。
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引用次数: 2
Examining the impact of income diversification on bank performance: Are foreign banks heterogeneous? 考察收入多元化对银行业绩的影响:外资银行是异质性的吗?
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-31 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2021.2022828
B. Addai, Wenjin Tang, Annette Serwaa Agyeman
ABSTRACT This study examines the heterogeneity of foreign banks in the income diversification and performance nexus. We utilize annual bank data across 46 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 2011–2018 and find that increased income diversification improves banks performance, and the Global and Emerging banks perform better than the regional African and domestic banks. Regarding how different foreign banks benefit from income diversification, we find that Global banks benefit from diversification more than their counterparts operating in the region. The Emerging country banks outperform the African and domestic banks, while the local banks in the region benefit from income diversification more than the regional African banks. The results of this study suggest that the emerging banks and the regional African banks do not always exhibit similar features like the Global banks. The observations in this study make significant contribution to the literature by providing new insight into the non-homogeneity of foreign banks in the income diversification pendulum.
摘要本研究考察外资银行收入多元化与绩效关系的异质性。我们利用2011-2018年撒哈拉以南非洲46个国家的年度银行数据发现,收入多样化的增加提高了银行的绩效,全球和新兴银行的表现优于非洲地区和国内银行。关于不同的外资银行如何从收入多元化中获益,我们发现全球银行比在该地区经营的同行从多元化中获益更多。新兴国家银行的表现优于非洲和国内银行,而该地区的本地银行从收入多样化中受益的程度高于非洲地区银行。本研究的结果表明,新兴银行和非洲地区银行并不总是表现出与全球银行相似的特征。本研究的观察结果通过提供外资银行在收入多元化钟摆中的非同质性的新见解,对文献做出了重大贡献。
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引用次数: 5
Dampen macroeconomic volatility: a useful role of capital controls on international trade 抑制宏观经济波动:资本管制对国际贸易的有益作用
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-31 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2073149
Chokri Zehri
ABSTRACT Capital controls may adversely affect international trade. This study aims to demonstrate the usefulness of capital controls for reducing macroeconomic volatilities and then mitigating their negative effects on international trade. Using quarterly data, we applied a dynamic panel approach to a sample of 26 countries over the period 2010–2020. By diversifying the estimation techniques and using different capital control indexes, our results show that a capital control policy supports international trade and reduces exchange rate and interest differentials volatilities. The impact of capital controls is asymmetric when considering the role of financial development, the cyclical behavior of capital controls, and the simultaneous use of macroprudential policies. This study raises some policy implications, particularly, the necessary coordination and adjustment of the macroeconomic policies and the importance of targeting long-lasting controls when applying a restrictive policy.
摘要资本管制可能对国际贸易产生不利影响。本研究旨在证明资本管制对减少宏观经济波动,进而减轻其对国际贸易的负面影响的有用性。利用季度数据,我们对2010-2020年期间26个国家的样本采用了动态面板法。通过多样化的估计技术和使用不同的资本控制指数,我们的结果表明,资本控制政策支持国际贸易,降低汇率和利差波动。在考虑金融发展的作用、资本控制的周期性行为以及同时使用宏观审慎政策时,资本控制的影响是不对称的。这项研究提出了一些政策影响,特别是宏观经济政策的必要协调和调整,以及在实施限制性政策时针对长期控制的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Exports and long-run growth: The case of Spain, 1850-2020 出口与长期增长:以西班牙为例,1850-2020年
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-31 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2152562
O. Bajo‐Rubio
ABSTRACT We analyse in this paper the relationship between international trade and economic growth from the point of view of one of the most traditional hypotheses within this field, namely, the export-led growth hypothesis, for the case of Spain in a long-term perspective of 170 years. Exports seem to have played a positive, though modest, role in promoting economic growth in the Spanish economy over the whole period, mostly due to the higher productivity associated with the export sector. The contribution of exports to growth, however, seems to have been stronger in the final years of the 19th century, unlike the rest of the period, where it proved to be negligible.
摘要本文以西班牙为例,从170年的长期视角,从该领域最传统的假说之一,即出口导向增长假说的角度,分析了国际贸易与经济增长之间的关系。在整个时期,出口似乎在促进西班牙经济增长方面发挥了积极的作用,尽管作用不大,主要是因为出口部门的生产率较高。然而,在19世纪的最后几年,出口对增长的贡献似乎更强,而在这一时期的其他年份,出口的贡献被证明是微不足道的。
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引用次数: 2
Intraday Bitcoin price shocks: when bad news is good news 日内比特币价格震荡:坏消息就是好消息
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-28 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2151253
José Luis Miralles‐Quirós, María del Mar Miralles-Quirós
ABSTRACT Since the formulation of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, countless studies have been developed that try to either prove or refute it. Event studies, analysing the impact of different events on asset prices, are one of the most important research fields but there is a lack of evidence on cryptocurrencies. For that reason, we analyse the existence of over- and under- reaction effects on Bitcoin after hourly price shocks defined by filter sizes. We also do this using three alternative approaches. Our results show clear evidence of overreaction after negative shocks. We also observe that these overreactions tend to be greater as more hours pass after the event, with those that occur between 6 and 24 hours after the event being especially important. These results have important economic implications because they show that investors would be able to develop a profitable trading strategy simply by focusing on investing after negative shocks.
摘要自从有效市场假说提出以来,已经有无数的研究试图证明或反驳它。事件研究是最重要的研究领域之一,分析不同事件对资产价格的影响,但缺乏关于加密货币的证据。因此,我们分析了在过滤器大小定义的每小时价格冲击后,比特币是否存在过度反应和反应不足的影响。我们还使用了三种替代方法。我们的研究结果显示了负面冲击后反应过度的明显证据。我们还观察到,随着事件发生后时间的推移,这些过度反应往往会更大,其中发生在事件发生后6至24小时之间的反应尤为重要。这些结果具有重要的经济意义,因为它们表明,投资者只需在负面冲击后专注于投资,就可以制定有利可图的交易策略。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of mixed ownership reforms on firm innovation–empirical evidence from China 混合所有制改革对企业创新的影响——来自中国的经验证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-16 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2153545
Kai Wan, Xiaohui Yu
ABSTRACT Based on data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2008–2018, an investigation is carried out upon the impact of mixed ownership reforms and relative control transfers on corporate innovation before and after the occurrence of mixed ownership reforms, and relative control transfers in state-owned and private enterprises, as well as their mechanisms of action. A double-difference propensity score matching method is adopted. It has been found that mixed ownership reforms are more likely to promote innovation in SOEs, particularly in monopolistic industries. A further sub-sample test reveals that in state-owned enterprises in monopolistic industries, the acquisition of relative control by private shares can amplify the innovation effect of mixed ownership reforms. In private companies in competitive industries, state-owned shares can only fuel innovation if they gain relative control. Reducing agency costs and easing financing constraints are important channels for mixed ownership reform to promote corporate innovation.
基于2008-2018年中国a股上市公司数据,研究混合所有制改革前后、国企和民企相对控制权转移对企业创新的影响及其作用机制。采用双差倾向评分匹配方法。研究发现,混合所有制改革更有可能促进国有企业的创新,特别是在垄断行业。进一步的子样本检验表明,在垄断行业的国有企业中,民营股权获得相对控制权可以放大混合所有制改革的创新效应。在竞争性行业的私营企业中,国有股只有在获得相对控制权的情况下才能推动创新。降低代理成本、缓解融资约束是混合所有制改革促进企业创新的重要渠道。
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引用次数: 3
Do psychopathic traits predict criminal activity? 心理变态特征能预测犯罪活动吗?
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2144009
M. Mancino, T. Attia
ABSTRACT Psychopathy evidence is frequently used for court decisions involving young criminals, claiming that is it an important predictor of crime. We investigate the effect of psychopathy on crime using a unique panel dataset of young offenders, which allows to analyze several dimensions of psychopathy, controlling for a wide range of usually unobservable characteristics. We find that psychopathy is an important predictor of crime. We show that the effect is two times larger (and closer to usual estimates) when measures of cognitive and non-cognitive skills are not accounted for, highlighting the importance of having comprehensive data on individual heterogeneity to isolate the effect of psychopathy on crime from the effect of confounding factors. Our results are robust to alternative measures of psychopathy and criminal participation. The findings suggest that court decisions should focus both on psychopathic characteristics and skills when deciding about an adolescenc’s sentence.
摘要精神病证据经常被用于涉及年轻罪犯的法庭判决,声称它是犯罪的重要预测因素。我们使用一个独特的年轻罪犯面板数据集来研究精神变态对犯罪的影响,该数据集可以分析精神变态的几个维度,控制一系列通常无法观察到的特征。我们发现精神病是犯罪的重要预测因素。我们发现,如果不考虑认知和非认知技能的测量,这种影响会大两倍(更接近于通常的估计),这突出了拥有关于个体异质性的全面数据的重要性,以将精神病对犯罪的影响与混杂因素的影响隔离开来。我们的研究结果对精神病和犯罪参与的替代测量是有力的。研究结果表明,在判决青少年时,法庭判决应同时关注精神病特征和技能。
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引用次数: 1
Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) in Post-Privatization: Evidence from Pakistan 私有化后的公共部门企业:来自巴基斯坦的证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-10-31 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2104553
Naseem Faraz, Ghulam Samad
ABSTRACT Privatization of public-sector enterprises (PSEs) has generated billions of dollars to support fiscal and macroeconomic imbalances in several developing countries. A limited literature evaluates the recent privatization program impacts on the PSEs. This study empirically investigated the privatization impact on the performance and efficiency of the firms in post-privatization period in Pakistan. Firm-level data are used to evaluate the privatization effects on performance and efficiency of the privatized PSEs. We use difference-in-difference approach that exploits within-firm variation in the outcome variables over time. The regression results show that the performance of only few firms improved while it remains negative or insignificant largely. The efficiency of the firms is also not improved significantly in post-privatization period.
在一些发展中国家,公共部门企业的私有化产生了数十亿美元的资金来支持财政和宏观经济失衡。有限的文献评估了最近的私有化计划对私营企业的影响。本研究实证研究了私有化对巴基斯坦后私有化时期企业绩效和效率的影响。本文采用公司层面的数据来评估私有化对民营企业绩效和效率的影响。我们使用差分法,利用公司内部随时间变化的结果变量。回归结果表明,只有少数企业的绩效有所改善,而大部分企业的绩效仍为负或不显著。私有化后的企业效率也没有显著提高。
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引用次数: 0
Financial constraint and output pricing: the case of international sanctions against Iran 金融约束与产出定价——以国际社会对伊朗的制裁为例
IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-10-18 DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2129145
Sajad Ebrahimi
ABSTRACT This paper examines whether financial constraints of firms influence their pricing behavior. To do so, a product-level dataset is used from Iranian-listed manufacturing companies. This study employs the imposition of international sanctions against Iran in 2012 as an exogenous shock to identify the effect of financial constraints. According to the results financially restricted firms keep their prices lower than their counterparts to increase their internal financial resources. The results show the difference between output prices of constrained and unconstrained firms rising after the imposition of sanctions. In addition, this relationship is affected by the degree of export-orientation of firms, and only exporter firms that experienced the negative demand shock after the sanctions, set their price lower to reduce the financial pressures. Also, the degree of dependency on imported input does not play a significant role in the relationship and ownership structure of firms has a significant impact on the relationship.
摘要本文考察企业的财务约束是否会影响其定价行为。为此,我们使用了伊朗上市制造公司的产品级数据集。本研究将2012年对伊朗实施的国际制裁作为外生冲击,以确定金融约束的影响。结果表明,资金受限的企业通过降低产品价格来增加内部资金来源。结果表明,制裁实施后,受约束企业和不受约束企业的产出价格之差增大。此外,这种关系受到企业出口导向程度的影响,只有在制裁后经历了负面需求冲击的出口企业才会降低价格以减轻财务压力。进口投入品依赖程度对进口投入品关系的影响不显著,企业所有权结构对进口投入品关系有显著影响。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Journal of Applied Economics
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