Pub Date : 2022-10-10DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2124085
Johane Dikgang, Zafeer Ravat, J. Mahabir
ABSTRACT Policymakers have little experience regarding designing the right levels of pricing for plastic bags. The ineffectiveness of charging for bags, in countries such as South Africa, makes it imperative that we map the demand curve. Getting the charge “right” depends on the size of the externality. Charging for bags is therefore an effective intervention to encourage consumers to carry their own bags to the stores. We employ a contingent behaviour (CB) dataset necessary to estimate the charge level that is likely to lead to a reduction in bag use over time. The results of the random effects Tobit model suggest that the current charge of US$0.03 was found to be too low, and highly inelastic. A charge of US$0.50 has potential to reduce unnecessary plastic use and is still lower than the price of alternatives; therefore, there is no danger of consumers shifting to alternatives that may cause more harm.
{"title":"Influences of various pricing points: an experimental study of plastic bags in Johannesburg, South Africa","authors":"Johane Dikgang, Zafeer Ravat, J. Mahabir","doi":"10.1080/15140326.2022.2124085","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2022.2124085","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Policymakers have little experience regarding designing the right levels of pricing for plastic bags. The ineffectiveness of charging for bags, in countries such as South Africa, makes it imperative that we map the demand curve. Getting the charge “right” depends on the size of the externality. Charging for bags is therefore an effective intervention to encourage consumers to carry their own bags to the stores. We employ a contingent behaviour (CB) dataset necessary to estimate the charge level that is likely to lead to a reduction in bag use over time. The results of the random effects Tobit model suggest that the current charge of US$0.03 was found to be too low, and highly inelastic. A charge of US$0.50 has potential to reduce unnecessary plastic use and is still lower than the price of alternatives; therefore, there is no danger of consumers shifting to alternatives that may cause more harm.","PeriodicalId":51747,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":"1200 - 1218"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43283691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-19DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2020.1816132
Emile du Plessis
ABSTRACT This paper applies a Qual VAR approach to generate a continuous banking crisis indicator from an underlying latent variable using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Four decades of banking crises are assessed by accounting for the evolutionary nature of precursors, as measured through periodic, regional, and developmental effects using a representative sample of countries. Aggregate results from forecast error variance decomposition show that banking sector variables explain nearly half of total variation, external sector a third and real sector a fifth. Findings suggest that recursive out-of-sample forecasts up to 12-months preceding a banking crisis render vital early warning signals, and as based on quarterly data, support expeditious response times. In out-of-sample forecasting, the Qual VAR outperforms a probit model. Improved forecasting performance may assist banking oversight departments and support remediation efforts of policymakers to adequately and timeously respond to banking crises.
{"title":"Dynamic forecasting of banking crises with a Qual VAR","authors":"Emile du Plessis","doi":"10.1080/15140326.2020.1816132","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2020.1816132","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper applies a Qual VAR approach to generate a continuous banking crisis indicator from an underlying latent variable using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Four decades of banking crises are assessed by accounting for the evolutionary nature of precursors, as measured through periodic, regional, and developmental effects using a representative sample of countries. Aggregate results from forecast error variance decomposition show that banking sector variables explain nearly half of total variation, external sector a third and real sector a fifth. Findings suggest that recursive out-of-sample forecasts up to 12-months preceding a banking crisis render vital early warning signals, and as based on quarterly data, support expeditious response times. In out-of-sample forecasting, the Qual VAR outperforms a probit model. Improved forecasting performance may assist banking oversight departments and support remediation efforts of policymakers to adequately and timeously respond to banking crises.","PeriodicalId":51747,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":"477 - 503"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48129957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-13DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2118514
D. Nguyen, Tu D. Q. Le
ABSTRACT This study examines the interrelationships between bank risk and charter value in five countries in Southeast Asia (ASEAN-5) from 2006 to 2019 using a simultaneous equations model. The findings show a two-way relationship between bank risk and charter value. More specifically, the positive relationship between charter value and bank risk implies that banks with a more excellent charter value tend to pursue fast growth strategies and thus may face a higher risk. This positive link, however, only holds up to a certain level of charter value. On the other hand, the negative impact of bank risk on charter value argues that more risky banks tend to generate lower returns, thus reducing charter value. Additionally, a bidirectional relationship between them still holds when using an alternative measure of bank risk and controlling for the global financial crisis and governance indicators. Therefore, our findings provide critical implications for policymakers, managers, and academics.
{"title":"The interrelationships between bank risk and charter value in ASIAN-5","authors":"D. Nguyen, Tu D. Q. Le","doi":"10.1080/15140326.2022.2118514","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2022.2118514","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study examines the interrelationships between bank risk and charter value in five countries in Southeast Asia (ASEAN-5) from 2006 to 2019 using a simultaneous equations model. The findings show a two-way relationship between bank risk and charter value. More specifically, the positive relationship between charter value and bank risk implies that banks with a more excellent charter value tend to pursue fast growth strategies and thus may face a higher risk. This positive link, however, only holds up to a certain level of charter value. On the other hand, the negative impact of bank risk on charter value argues that more risky banks tend to generate lower returns, thus reducing charter value. Additionally, a bidirectional relationship between them still holds when using an alternative measure of bank risk and controlling for the global financial crisis and governance indicators. Therefore, our findings provide critical implications for policymakers, managers, and academics.","PeriodicalId":51747,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":"1182 - 1199"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43262759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-01DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2110012
Daxin Dong, Peng Liu
ABSTRACT This paper studies whether firms’ corporate social responsibility (CSR) affects their access to trade credit in response to monetary contraction shocks. Based on US firm-level data from 1995Q1 to 2014Q1, we find that after monetary contraction shocks, firms with higher levels of CSR receive more trade credit than firms with lower levels of CSR. Moreover, the beneficial impact of CSR is stronger for firms in regions with higher social trust and in more competitive industries. The interpretation of the observed phenomena is that the high-CSR firms are regarded as more trustworthy.
{"title":"Corporate social responsibility and trade credit during periods of monetary contraction","authors":"Daxin Dong, Peng Liu","doi":"10.1080/15140326.2022.2110012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2022.2110012","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper studies whether firms’ corporate social responsibility (CSR) affects their access to trade credit in response to monetary contraction shocks. Based on US firm-level data from 1995Q1 to 2014Q1, we find that after monetary contraction shocks, firms with higher levels of CSR receive more trade credit than firms with lower levels of CSR. Moreover, the beneficial impact of CSR is stronger for firms in regions with higher social trust and in more competitive industries. The interpretation of the observed phenomena is that the high-CSR firms are regarded as more trustworthy.","PeriodicalId":51747,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":"1127 - 1155"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41819310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-01DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2107371
Yuanyuan Gu, M. Arends-Kuenning
ABSTRACT This paper explores how the anticipated expenditure on children’s college education affects household asset allocation, applying a two-stage budgeting model of asset demand by using the 2016 China Family Panel Studies Data (CFPS). The empirical results show that if a household plans to send a child to college, the probability of holding risky assets increases by 1.7 percentage points, and the probability of holding investable housing assets increases by 3.8 percentage points. Furthermore, we also find that as the expected year of college entry approaches, households prefer less liquid assets. When the expected year is still far in the future, they prefer liquid assets with high-risk and illiquid assets with high-return. These findings imply that policymakers should make reforms in the financial market and real estate market, as well as provide more kinds of investment products, thereby promoting household investment diversification.
{"title":"Investment in children’s higher education and household asset allocation in China","authors":"Yuanyuan Gu, M. Arends-Kuenning","doi":"10.1080/15140326.2022.2107371","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2022.2107371","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper explores how the anticipated expenditure on children’s college education affects household asset allocation, applying a two-stage budgeting model of asset demand by using the 2016 China Family Panel Studies Data (CFPS). The empirical results show that if a household plans to send a child to college, the probability of holding risky assets increases by 1.7 percentage points, and the probability of holding investable housing assets increases by 3.8 percentage points. Furthermore, we also find that as the expected year of college entry approaches, households prefer less liquid assets. When the expected year is still far in the future, they prefer liquid assets with high-risk and illiquid assets with high-return. These findings imply that policymakers should make reforms in the financial market and real estate market, as well as provide more kinds of investment products, thereby promoting household investment diversification.","PeriodicalId":51747,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":"1081 - 1126"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48356967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-25DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2087341
H. Sui, Xijie Li, A. Raza, S. Zhang
ABSTRACT An increase in trade policy uncertainty raises policymakers’ concerns, as it can be harmful to investments and growth globally. This study examines the impact of reducing trade policy uncertainty on export product quality. Based on the ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), the difference-in-difference, two-way fixed, and triple difference methods were used to conduct benchmark tests. The results show that reducing trade policy uncertainty improves export product quality. Social capital has strengthened the role of the changing trade environments. The results were robust after the PSM-DID, placebo test, and deletion of outliers. Furthermore, the role of social capital is incorporated into the regression model. From the perspective of informal internal systems, this study expands the theoretical view of regional trade integration research and answers the current trade strategy adjustment and export transformation policy concerns.
{"title":"Impact of trade policy uncertainty on export products quality: new evidence by considering role of social capital","authors":"H. Sui, Xijie Li, A. Raza, S. Zhang","doi":"10.1080/15140326.2022.2087341","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2022.2087341","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT An increase in trade policy uncertainty raises policymakers’ concerns, as it can be harmful to investments and growth globally. This study examines the impact of reducing trade policy uncertainty on export product quality. Based on the ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), the difference-in-difference, two-way fixed, and triple difference methods were used to conduct benchmark tests. The results show that reducing trade policy uncertainty improves export product quality. Social capital has strengthened the role of the changing trade environments. The results were robust after the PSM-DID, placebo test, and deletion of outliers. Furthermore, the role of social capital is incorporated into the regression model. From the perspective of informal internal systems, this study expands the theoretical view of regional trade integration research and answers the current trade strategy adjustment and export transformation policy concerns.","PeriodicalId":51747,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":"997 - 1024"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46383213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-25DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2099726
Ahmet Kaya, J. de Haan
ABSTRACT We investigate the impact of European Union (EU) integration on capital flows to prospective new EU member states. Using annual data between 1992 and 2020, our results suggest that although EU integration increased net capital flows before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), it was not able to shield countries from the general decline in capital flows that occurred after the GFC. Furthermore, the results show that the impact of EU integration mainly runs through improved institutional quality. We also find considerable heterogeneity in the drivers of different types of capital flows (FDI, portfolio investments, and other capital flows) that we consider.
{"title":"Capital flows, EU integration and the global financial crisis: an empirical analysis","authors":"Ahmet Kaya, J. de Haan","doi":"10.1080/15140326.2022.2099726","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2022.2099726","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We investigate the impact of European Union (EU) integration on capital flows to prospective new EU member states. Using annual data between 1992 and 2020, our results suggest that although EU integration increased net capital flows before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), it was not able to shield countries from the general decline in capital flows that occurred after the GFC. Furthermore, the results show that the impact of EU integration mainly runs through improved institutional quality. We also find considerable heterogeneity in the drivers of different types of capital flows (FDI, portfolio investments, and other capital flows) that we consider.","PeriodicalId":51747,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":"1025 - 1049"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47732703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-22DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2084687
A. Menezes, D. Sciulli
ABSTRACT This paper analyses the impact of matching frictions in the Portuguese labour market on individual unemployment hazard rates and unemployment durations. The coexistence of permanent contracts and temporary contracts in the Portuguese (dual) labour-market is akin to a matching friction, with a contract-type mismatch between jobseekers who prefer permanent contracts, whereas firms, in turn, prefer to offer temporary contracts. The paper uses a rich micro dataset which allows to compute a time and space varying contract-type mismatch index, over 86 local labour markets (job-centers of the Portuguese Public Employment System) and five years. Employing discrete time hazard models and a stock-flow matching mechanism, we find that local labour markets with higher contract-type mismatch rates are characterized by lower hazard rates and longer unemployment duration. Improving the desirability of temporary contracts and information about local contract-type mismatch rates may reduce matching frictions and average unemployment duration.
{"title":"The effects of contract-type mismatch and matching frictions on unemployment duration: evidence for Portugal","authors":"A. Menezes, D. Sciulli","doi":"10.1080/15140326.2022.2084687","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2022.2084687","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper analyses the impact of matching frictions in the Portuguese labour market on individual unemployment hazard rates and unemployment durations. The coexistence of permanent contracts and temporary contracts in the Portuguese (dual) labour-market is akin to a matching friction, with a contract-type mismatch between jobseekers who prefer permanent contracts, whereas firms, in turn, prefer to offer temporary contracts. The paper uses a rich micro dataset which allows to compute a time and space varying contract-type mismatch index, over 86 local labour markets (job-centers of the Portuguese Public Employment System) and five years. Employing discrete time hazard models and a stock-flow matching mechanism, we find that local labour markets with higher contract-type mismatch rates are characterized by lower hazard rates and longer unemployment duration. Improving the desirability of temporary contracts and information about local contract-type mismatch rates may reduce matching frictions and average unemployment duration.","PeriodicalId":51747,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":"936 - 961"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"59974222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-22DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2048342
Lina Ma, Fengju Xu, N. Iqbal
ABSTRACT Innovation capability of manufacturing industry is one of the most important factors that determine a country’s competitiveness. This paper expounds the theoretical and empirical relationship among innovation capability (IC), capital enrichment (CE) and total factor productivity (TFP) by using the yearly panel data of 28 Chinese manufacturing segments from 2011 to 2018. The intermediary effect model and threshold model are used for empirical analysis, findings suggest that 1) IC not only directly promotes TFP but also indirectly through CE, indicating that CE has an intermediary effect on the relationship between IC and TFP. 2) The positive effect of CE on TFP is influenced by the “double threshold effect” of IC. Compared with industries having low IC, this positive effect in high IC industries is first enhanced then weakened and later re-enhanced. 3) There is a significant difference in IC and CE among different manufacturing segments.
{"title":"The impact of capital enrichment on total factor productivity from the perspective of innovation capability","authors":"Lina Ma, Fengju Xu, N. Iqbal","doi":"10.1080/15140326.2022.2048342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2022.2048342","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Innovation capability of manufacturing industry is one of the most important factors that determine a country’s competitiveness. This paper expounds the theoretical and empirical relationship among innovation capability (IC), capital enrichment (CE) and total factor productivity (TFP) by using the yearly panel data of 28 Chinese manufacturing segments from 2011 to 2018. The intermediary effect model and threshold model are used for empirical analysis, findings suggest that 1) IC not only directly promotes TFP but also indirectly through CE, indicating that CE has an intermediary effect on the relationship between IC and TFP. 2) The positive effect of CE on TFP is influenced by the “double threshold effect” of IC. Compared with industries having low IC, this positive effect in high IC industries is first enhanced then weakened and later re-enhanced. 3) There is a significant difference in IC and CE among different manufacturing segments.","PeriodicalId":51747,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":"644 - 667"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46355589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-21DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2096954
Weilong Wu, Tang Jing, Yang Xiaoli
ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the impact of high-speed train construction on enterprise innovation and its specific mechanisms by establishing high-speed train-city-firm level panel data and constructing a multi-period DID model in China. The results show that, firstly, the construction of a high-speed train significantly improves the innovation level of enterprises, and the construction of the first high-speed train can increase the number of patents of local listed enterprises by about 11.5%. Second, the impact of high-speed train construction on the innovation level of listed enterprises is mainly through the internal human capital and external marketization of enterprises. Specifically, the high-speed train construction affects innovation by weakening the transportation distance; on the other hand, it improves the external market environment and enhances the market competition, making firms seek innovation actively.
{"title":"Can high-speed train improve the innovation ability of enterprises?","authors":"Weilong Wu, Tang Jing, Yang Xiaoli","doi":"10.1080/15140326.2022.2096954","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2022.2096954","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the impact of high-speed train construction on enterprise innovation and its specific mechanisms by establishing high-speed train-city-firm level panel data and constructing a multi-period DID model in China. The results show that, firstly, the construction of a high-speed train significantly improves the innovation level of enterprises, and the construction of the first high-speed train can increase the number of patents of local listed enterprises by about 11.5%. Second, the impact of high-speed train construction on the innovation level of listed enterprises is mainly through the internal human capital and external marketization of enterprises. Specifically, the high-speed train construction affects innovation by weakening the transportation distance; on the other hand, it improves the external market environment and enhances the market competition, making firms seek innovation actively.","PeriodicalId":51747,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":"962 - 982"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2022-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44528542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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