Cesifo Economic Studies最新文献

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OUP accepted manuscript OUP接受稿件

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifab008

引用次数: 0

OUP accepted manuscript OUP接受稿件

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifab011

引用次数: 0

OUP accepted manuscript OUP接受稿件

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifab012

引用次数: 3

OUP accepted manuscript OUP接受稿件

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifab014

引用次数: 0

China’s Monetary and Macroprudential Policies: Are They Complementary or Substitutive? 中国货币政策与宏观审慎政策:是互补还是替代?

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2020-12-22 DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifaa016

P. Sinclair, Lixin Sun

This paper develops a calibrated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model incorporating a banking sector and some unique features of China’s macroeconomic policies to simulate China’s monetary and macroprudential policies. The quantitative results show, first, that the interest rate is a better instrument for China’s monetary policy than the required reserve ratio (RRR) when the central bank is solely concerned about price stability; second, that the loan-to-value ratio is a very useful macroprudential tool for China’s financial stability, and the RRR could be used as an instrument for both objectives; third, monetary and macroprudential policies could be either complements or substitutes in China, depending on the choices of instruments for the two policies. Our policy experiments recommend three combination choices of instruments for China’s monetary and macroprudential policies. (JEL codes: E52, E61and G18)

本文建立了一个包含银行业和中国宏观经济政策特征的校准动态随机一般均衡模型，以模拟中国的货币政策和宏观审慎政策。量化结果表明，首先，当央行只关注物价稳定时，利率是比存款准备金率更好的货币政策工具;第二，贷款价值比对于中国的金融稳定是一个非常有用的宏观审慎工具，而存款准备金率可以作为实现这两个目标的工具;第三，货币政策和宏观审慎政策在中国可以互为补充，也可以互为替代，这取决于两种政策工具的选择。我们的政策实验为中国的货币政策和宏观审慎政策推荐了三种工具组合选择。(JEL代码:E52、e61及G18)

引用次数: 3

Kindergarten for Free?! Empirical Evidence on the Utilization of Income Tax Deductions for Child Care Expenses 免费幼儿园？！所得税减免用于儿童保育费用的实证研究

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2020-12-12 DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifaa015

Lena Calahorrano, Sven Stöwhase

In most developed countries there exist ample possibilities for individuals to minimize their personal income tax burden by means of tax deductions. The associated revenue losses for the government have been estimated for a variety of tax deductions. However, relatively little is known about the share of eligible taxpayers who actually use these deductions, and, more specifically, about what determines utilization. The present paper tries to shed some light on this question in the context of the tax deductibility of expenses for child care in Germany. Using survey data on actual child care expenses and official tax-return data on deductions for child-care expenses, we derive utilization rates. We also analyze the determinants of utilization among those who filed a tax-return, using a subsample of the tax-return data. Our estimation results show that (potential) tax breaks from utilization are significantly positively correlated with the probability of utilization. Other kinds of deductions are also highly significant, suggesting that knowledge of tax statutes as well as opportunity costs matter. Moreover, we simulate the effects of a policy reform that enhances the generosity of deductions on the utilization rate. Such a reform would substantially increase utilization. Our results indicate that responses in utilization are more important than potential responses in labor supply. (JEL codes: D14, H24, H43).

在大多数发达国家，个人有充分的机会通过税收减免来尽量减少个人所得税负担。政府的相关收入损失已经通过各种税收减免进行了估计。然而，对于实际使用这些扣除额的合格纳税人的比例，更具体地说，对于决定使用率的因素，我们知之甚少。本文试图在德国儿童保育费用的税收减免背景下对这一问题进行一些探讨。使用实际儿童保育费用的调查数据和儿童保育费用扣除额的官方纳税申报表数据，我们得出了使用率。我们还使用纳税申报表数据的子样本分析了那些提交纳税申报表的人的利用率的决定因素。我们的估计结果表明，利用的（潜在）税收减免与利用的概率显著正相关。其他类型的扣除也非常重要，这表明对税法和机会成本的了解很重要。此外，我们模拟了政策改革的效果，该改革提高了扣除额对使用率的慷慨程度。这样的改革将大大提高利用率。我们的结果表明，利用方面的反应比劳动力供应方面的潜在反应更重要。（JEL代码：D14、H24、H43）。

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引用次数: 0

Gender Equality and Public Policy during COVID-19. 2019冠状病毒病期间的性别平等和公共政策。

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2020-12-06 eCollection Date: 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifaa018

Paola Profeta

The outbreak of COVID-19 has affected men and women worldwide. The gender dimension of COVID-19 has attracted the attention of researchers and policymakers: while women seem to be less severely hit by the virus and are more compliant with the restricting rules imposed to reduce the spread of the contagion, they risk to suffer more the economic consequences of the pandemic, because they are more vulnerable on the labor market and because they are carrying on most of the burden of housework and childcare which increased substantially during the lockdown. Public policies are required to address the emergency and to deal with its gender implications. Anecdotal evidence suggests that women leaders have performed better than men in dealing with the emergency. This paper explores the evidence on the gender dimension of the pandemic under a new perspective proposed by Profeta (2020), focused on the double relationship between gender equality and public policy: on one side, I show which policies can support gender equality in times of COVID-19 and, on the other side, I explore whether women leadership can promote successful measures. While the evidence provided is only suggestive, future studies should assess causal relationships. (JEL codes: J16 and J18).

2019冠状病毒病的爆发影响了全世界的男性和女性。COVID-19的性别层面引起了研究人员和政策制定者的注意:虽然女性似乎受病毒的影响不那么严重，也更遵守为减少传染病传播而实施的限制规则，但她们承受大流行经济后果的风险更大，因为她们在劳动力市场上更脆弱，而且她们承担着大部分家务和照顾孩子的负担，而这些负担在封锁期间大幅增加。需要制定公共政策来处理这一紧急情况并处理其所涉性别问题。轶事证据表明，在处理紧急情况方面，女性领导人的表现优于男性领导人。本文以Profeta(2020)提出的新视角探讨了大流行的性别维度证据，重点关注性别平等与公共政策之间的双重关系:一方面，我展示了哪些政策可以在COVID-19时期支持性别平等，另一方面，我探讨了女性领导是否可以促进成功的措施。虽然提供的证据只是暗示性的，但未来的研究应该评估因果关系。(JEL代码:J16和J18)。

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引用次数: 34

The Central Bank Governor and Interest Rate Setting by Committee 中央银行行长和利率制定委员会

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2020-12-06 DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifaa013

Emile van Ommeren, Giulia Piccillo

This article studies the role of central bank governors in monetary policy decisions taken by a committee. To carry out this analysis, we constructed a novel dataset of committee voting behaviour for six OECD countries for up to three decades. Using a range of Taylor rule specifications, we show that a change in governor significantly affects interest rate setting. We also observe systematic differences in interest rate rules based on the political party appointing the governor, with more inflation-averse policies under governors that are appointed by a right-wing political authority. We show the robustness of this result by using a wider dataset (including over 3000 observations from 12 countries). (JEL codes: E02, E5, P16)

本文研究了央行行长在委员会货币政策决策中的作用。为了进行这一分析，我们构建了一个新颖的数据集，记录了六个经合组织国家长达三十年的委员会投票行为。使用一系列泰勒规则规范，我们表明，行长的变化显著影响利率设置。我们还观察到，在任命央行行长的政党不同的情况下，利率规则存在系统性差异，而由右翼政治权威任命的央行行长会出台更多的反通胀政策。我们通过使用更广泛的数据集(包括来自12个国家的3000多个观察结果)来显示这一结果的稳健性。(JEL代码:E02, E5, P16)

引用次数: 3

COVID-19: guaranteed Loans and Zombie Firms. COVID-19：担保贷款与僵尸企业。

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2020-12-06 eCollection Date: 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifaa014

Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek, Florian Keller

Based on a survey (7-13 April 2020) we evaluate the reaction of Swiss firms towards the COVID-19 crisis. Firms show little pro-active reactions towards the crisis, but decrease their business activities. The firms in the survey report that the decline in foreign demand is the single most important reason for their deteriorating business situation. Firms that faced a more difficult business situation before the crisis are affected more severely during the crisis. Moreover, we investigate the impact of the Swiss federal loan program (Bundeshilfe) on the business activities. To this end, we develop a stylized theoretical model of financially constrained heterogeneous firms. We find that policy makers face a trade-off between immediate higher unemployment rates and long-term higher public spending. The former arises from a combination of a too strong economic impact of the COVID-19 lockdown (demand drop) and too low levels of loans provided. Nevertheless, providing (too) high levels of loans to firms creates zombie firms that are going to default in the future leading to an increase in public spending. (JEL codes: D22, D25, D84, and G33).

根据一项调查（2020 年 4 月 7-13 日），我们评估了瑞士企业对 COVID-19 危机的反应。企业对危机的反应并不积极，只是减少了业务活动。调查显示，外需下降是导致企业经营状况恶化的最重要原因。危机前经营状况较为困难的企业在危机中受到的影响更为严重。此外，我们还调查了瑞士联邦贷款计划（Bundeshilfe）对企业经营活动的影响。为此，我们建立了一个财务受限的异质企业的风格化理论模型。我们发现，政策制定者面临着立即提高失业率与长期增加公共开支之间的权衡。前者是由于 COVID-19 封锁（需求下降）对经济的影响过大和提供的贷款水平过低共同造成的。然而，向企业提供（过多）高额贷款会产生僵尸企业，这些企业将来会违约，从而导致公共支出增加。(JEL 代码：D22、D25、D84 和 G33）。

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引用次数: 0

Tax Reform, Trade Openness and Export Product Diversification in Developing Countries 发展中国家税制改革、贸易开放与出口产品多样化

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Cesifo Economic Studies

Pub Date : 2020-11-27 DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifaa011

S. Gnangnon

This article considers the effect of tax reform on export product diversification in developing countries, including through the trade openness channel. Tax reform involves the convergence of a developing country's tax structure towards the tax structure of developed countries. The analysis uses a sample of 112 developing countries over the period 1980–2014 and shows that tax reform exerts a positive effect on export product diversification, with least developed countries enjoying a higher positive effect than other countries in the full sample. Furthermore, the higher the degree of trade openness, the greater is the magnitude of the positive effect of tax reform on export product diversification. These outcomes have important policy implications. (JEL codes: H20, O11, O14).

本文考虑了税收改革对发展中国家出口产品多样化的影响，包括通过贸易开放渠道。税收改革涉及发展中国家的税收结构向发达国家的税收结构趋同。该分析使用了1980-2014年期间112个发展中国家的样本，表明税收改革对出口产品多样化产生了积极影响，最不发达国家的积极影响高于整个样本中的其他国家。此外，贸易开放程度越高，税收改革对出口产品多样化的积极影响就越大。这些结果具有重要的政策意义。（JEL代码：H20、O11、O14）。

引用次数: 5

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