Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-2-6
K. Sohag, S. Husain, K. Chukavina, Md. Al Mamun
The Russian economy is emerging, meaning that natural resources play a dominant role in economic development. Given the considerable volatility in resource prices, we investigate the volatility spillovers among policy uncertainty, international oil prices, exchange rate, stock index and metal prices covering the period of 2 July 2008 to 15 May 2020 for the Russian economy applying Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR). Our empirical investigation demonstrates that gold price, Russian policy uncertainty, oil price and stock index are net volatility contributors, whereas palladium, platinum, silver and exchange rate are net volatilities receivers. Market capitalisation and silver market are found to be the highest net contributor and net receiver, respectively. The palladium appears as a net volatility receiver initially, just after the global financial crisis. The Russian economic policy uncertainty appears to be the dominant volatility contributor from 2008 to 2014, but onward it turned to be a net volatility receiver. Over the year 2014, gold price was the prominent volatility contributor to another market when the oil price dropped significantly. The total connectivity of the markets are highly anchored with several exogenous shocks, including economic sanction, adoption of floating exchange rate, oil price plunge. Our empirical findings provide several policy implications to portfolio managers and Russian regional stakeholders.
{"title":"Policy Uncertainty, Oil Price, Stock Market and Precious Metal Markets Volatility Spillovers in the Russian Economy","authors":"K. Sohag, S. Husain, K. Chukavina, Md. Al Mamun","doi":"10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-2-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-2-6","url":null,"abstract":"The Russian economy is emerging, meaning that natural resources play a dominant role in economic development. Given the considerable volatility in resource prices, we investigate the volatility spillovers among policy uncertainty, international oil prices, exchange rate, stock index and metal prices covering the period of 2 July 2008 to 15 May 2020 for the Russian economy applying Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR). Our empirical investigation demonstrates that gold price, Russian policy uncertainty, oil price and stock index are net volatility contributors, whereas palladium, platinum, silver and exchange rate are net volatilities receivers. Market capitalisation and silver market are found to be the highest net contributor and net receiver, respectively. The palladium appears as a net volatility receiver initially, just after the global financial crisis. The Russian economic policy uncertainty appears to be the dominant volatility contributor from 2008 to 2014, but onward it turned to be a net volatility receiver. Over the year 2014, gold price was the prominent volatility contributor to another market when the oil price dropped significantly. The total connectivity of the markets are highly anchored with several exogenous shocks, including economic sanction, adoption of floating exchange rate, oil price plunge. Our empirical findings provide several policy implications to portfolio managers and Russian regional stakeholders.","PeriodicalId":51978,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika Regiona-Economy of Region","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77224084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-2-16
O. Mazurova, E. Galperova, V. Loktionov
A global priority of electrification expansion in all areas is also stated in the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation. The study aims to forecast electricity demand in Russia taking into account possible electrification options in economic sectors. The article presents a multi-stage procedure and a concise review of methodological approaches to the long-term assessment of electricity demand, which considers the impact of complex interrelationships in social, economic and technological policies. In particular, this approach focuses on the regional level, where the interests of energy producers and consumers are reconciled. The current and promising directions of electricity use in Russian regions and economic sectors were analysed based on various statistics and forecasts. The conducted analysis demonstrated the stability of sectoral and territorial energy consumption patterns, as well as a decrease and convergence of values of gross regional product (GRP) energy intensity. Energy consumption of regions varies due to significant differences in industrial specialisation and living standards of the population. The highest energy consumption is observed in developed regions (Central Federal District) or regions with a large share of energy-intensive industries (Siberian Federal District). According to the accepted economic development and electrification expansion strategies for the period 2025–2040, on average, electricity demand in Russian regions is expected to increase by 1.4–1.8 % annually. It is anticipated that the Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts will show the highest growth rates of energy consumption due to the accelerated development of these territories. Predicted dynamics of the gross domestic product (GDP) energy intensity in Russia confirms its compliance with global trends. The research findings may prove useful in creating programmes and development strategies for the country and its regions.
{"title":"Forecasting Electricity Demand in the Russian Federation and Its Regions Taking Into Account Electrification Expansion","authors":"O. Mazurova, E. Galperova, V. Loktionov","doi":"10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-2-16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-2-16","url":null,"abstract":"A global priority of electrification expansion in all areas is also stated in the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation. The study aims to forecast electricity demand in Russia taking into account possible electrification options in economic sectors. The article presents a multi-stage procedure and a concise review of methodological approaches to the long-term assessment of electricity demand, which considers the impact of complex interrelationships in social, economic and technological policies. In particular, this approach focuses on the regional level, where the interests of energy producers and consumers are reconciled. The current and promising directions of electricity use in Russian regions and economic sectors were analysed based on various statistics and forecasts. The conducted analysis demonstrated the stability of sectoral and territorial energy consumption patterns, as well as a decrease and convergence of values of gross regional product (GRP) energy intensity. Energy consumption of regions varies due to significant differences in industrial specialisation and living standards of the population. The highest energy consumption is observed in developed regions (Central Federal District) or regions with a large share of energy-intensive industries (Siberian Federal District). According to the accepted economic development and electrification expansion strategies for the period 2025–2040, on average, electricity demand in Russian regions is expected to increase by 1.4–1.8 % annually. It is anticipated that the Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts will show the highest growth rates of energy consumption due to the accelerated development of these territories. Predicted dynamics of the gross domestic product (GDP) energy intensity in Russia confirms its compliance with global trends. The research findings may prove useful in creating programmes and development strategies for the country and its regions.","PeriodicalId":51978,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika Regiona-Economy of Region","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78684797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-11
O. Zhdaneev
Considering the current geopolitical situation, the issues of technological sovereignty and fuel and energy sector development became urgent. In order to determine priorities for the implementation of public-private partnership (since these problems cannot be solved only through budgetary funding), areas largely depending on the import of equipment, technologies and software should be identified. The article presents a new methodology for assessing product localisation in the fuel and energy sector. The study reviews the existing approach (based on the Government Decree No. 719) and current challenges of implementing the local content policy in the Russian fuel and energy sector. The proposed methodology is based on the relevant experience of various countries in calculating the local content value, as well as the best practices of some Russian companies. Particular attention is paid to the complete value chain for products, services and software. The basic formula for calculating the product localisation includes estimations for each cost item in the value chain. Cost data taken from the appendix to the balance sheet, invoices and annual reports of enterprises were used as input. The total costs and import costs were considered for each cost item. According to the results of a comparative analysis of existing Russian and international methodologies, the developed approach was evaluated by the industry community and was considered to be the most relevant. The main risks of deploying the methodology in the import substitution programme, as well as risk management measures were described. The fuel and energy sector companies could use the research findings to assess the actual dependence on imported equipment and technologies.
{"title":"Assessment of Product Localization during the Import Substitution in the Fuel and Energy Sector","authors":"O. Zhdaneev","doi":"10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-11","url":null,"abstract":"Considering the current geopolitical situation, the issues of technological sovereignty and fuel and energy sector development became urgent. In order to determine priorities for the implementation of public-private partnership (since these problems cannot be solved only through budgetary funding), areas largely depending on the import of equipment, technologies and software should be identified. The article presents a new methodology for assessing product localisation in the fuel and energy sector. The study reviews the existing approach (based on the Government Decree No. 719) and current challenges of implementing the local content policy in the Russian fuel and energy sector. The proposed methodology is based on the relevant experience of various countries in calculating the local content value, as well as the best practices of some Russian companies. Particular attention is paid to the complete value chain for products, services and software. The basic formula for calculating the product localisation includes estimations for each cost item in the value chain. Cost data taken from the appendix to the balance sheet, invoices and annual reports of enterprises were used as input. The total costs and import costs were considered for each cost item. According to the results of a comparative analysis of existing Russian and international methodologies, the developed approach was evaluated by the industry community and was considered to be the most relevant. The main risks of deploying the methodology in the import substitution programme, as well as risk management measures were described. The fuel and energy sector companies could use the research findings to assess the actual dependence on imported equipment and technologies.","PeriodicalId":51978,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika Regiona-Economy of Region","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74048575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-19
N. Starodubets, V. Derbeneva
Currently, Russia is going through a global transformation in the field of waste management, which is mainly caused by the exhaustion of the capacities of existing landfills. The country’s goal is to reduce landfill and ensure 36 % recycling of all municipal solid waste (MSW) by 2024. Meanwhile, the discussion about the choice of disposal methods continues. We propose to look at the choice of the optimal MSW management strategy at the regional level through the prism of its total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this regard, the purpose of the article is to determine the total carbon footprint of the regional MSW management system in order to consider the “contribution” of each of the methods of waste management and make the considered criterion suitable for assessing the sustainability of the whole regional waste management system under various scenarios of its development. To achieve this goal, the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was used to assess the current situation in the field of MSW management in the Sverdlovsk region. Further, the study developed the conditions for three industry development scenarios (basic, inertial, innovative); substantiated the factors of direct and prevented GHG emissions; calculated GHG emissions from the MSW management sector in the Sverdlovsk region for 2023-2030 for each of the three scenarios. The calculations showed that, by 2030, the basic scenario (“as is”, business-as-usual) has the maximum carbon footprint of 1558.5 thousand tonnes of CO2-eq. The innovative scenario has minimum net emissions of 82.6 thousand tonnes of CO2-eq. by creating a full-fledged separate waste collection and recycling more waste. The findings can be useful in the formation of regional strategies for waste management, considering GHG emissions.
{"title":"Formation of a Regional Strategy for Municipal Solid Waste Management Considering Greenhouse Gas Emissions","authors":"N. Starodubets, V. Derbeneva","doi":"10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-19","url":null,"abstract":"Currently, Russia is going through a global transformation in the field of waste management, which is mainly caused by the exhaustion of the capacities of existing landfills. The country’s goal is to reduce landfill and ensure 36 % recycling of all municipal solid waste (MSW) by 2024. Meanwhile, the discussion about the choice of disposal methods continues. We propose to look at the choice of the optimal MSW management strategy at the regional level through the prism of its total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this regard, the purpose of the article is to determine the total carbon footprint of the regional MSW management system in order to consider the “contribution” of each of the methods of waste management and make the considered criterion suitable for assessing the sustainability of the whole regional waste management system under various scenarios of its development. To achieve this goal, the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was used to assess the current situation in the field of MSW management in the Sverdlovsk region. Further, the study developed the conditions for three industry development scenarios (basic, inertial, innovative); substantiated the factors of direct and prevented GHG emissions; calculated GHG emissions from the MSW management sector in the Sverdlovsk region for 2023-2030 for each of the three scenarios. The calculations showed that, by 2030, the basic scenario (“as is”, business-as-usual) has the maximum carbon footprint of 1558.5 thousand tonnes of CO2-eq. The innovative scenario has minimum net emissions of 82.6 thousand tonnes of CO2-eq. by creating a full-fledged separate waste collection and recycling more waste. The findings can be useful in the formation of regional strategies for waste management, considering GHG emissions.","PeriodicalId":51978,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika Regiona-Economy of Region","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85162596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-2-8
B. Kheyfets, V. Chernova
Consumer globalisation is a fundamentally new stage in modern economic development. The Internet and digital technologies are becoming key drivers of consumer globalisation. To assess these processes, a quantitative evaluation method was developed that distinguishes consumer globalisation twofold — actual and potential. The example of the EU countries was analysed for consumer globalisation. The results obtained allow concluding that consumers in countries with high per capita income and higher prevalence and availability of Internet technologies are more globalised. The highest growth rates of globalisation were noted in countries with basically low globalisation indicators — among consumers in Cyprus, Bulgaria, Greece, Slovenia and Romania. There are differences between the EU countries in the intensity of globalisation processes due to different levels of economic development, different provision of infrastructure and information and communication technologies. The assessment of consumer globalisation showed that consumers of all EU countries in 2018 became more globalised in comparison with 2014. The results obtained make it possible to speak with confidence about the beginning of a new stage of economic globalisation, which will be determined by new technologies and consumer networks. The research findings contribute to the better understanding of the ongoing globalisation processes. The consumer globalisation index can serve as a tool for studying the involvement of consumers in international relations, exploring the potential for these relations’ development, as well as the differences in consumer globalisation between different countries, particular regions within the same country and between various social groups of population.
{"title":"Consumer Involvement in the Globalisation of Trade: Case of the European Union","authors":"B. Kheyfets, V. Chernova","doi":"10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-2-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-2-8","url":null,"abstract":"Consumer globalisation is a fundamentally new stage in modern economic development. The Internet and digital technologies are becoming key drivers of consumer globalisation. To assess these processes, a quantitative evaluation method was developed that distinguishes consumer globalisation twofold — actual and potential. The example of the EU countries was analysed for consumer globalisation. The results obtained allow concluding that consumers in countries with high per capita income and higher prevalence and availability of Internet technologies are more globalised. The highest growth rates of globalisation were noted in countries with basically low globalisation indicators — among consumers in Cyprus, Bulgaria, Greece, Slovenia and Romania. There are differences between the EU countries in the intensity of globalisation processes due to different levels of economic development, different provision of infrastructure and information and communication technologies. The assessment of consumer globalisation showed that consumers of all EU countries in 2018 became more globalised in comparison with 2014. The results obtained make it possible to speak with confidence about the beginning of a new stage of economic globalisation, which will be determined by new technologies and consumer networks. The research findings contribute to the better understanding of the ongoing globalisation processes. The consumer globalisation index can serve as a tool for studying the involvement of consumers in international relations, exploring the potential for these relations’ development, as well as the differences in consumer globalisation between different countries, particular regions within the same country and between various social groups of population.","PeriodicalId":51978,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika Regiona-Economy of Region","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83699977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-6
V. Loginov
Numerous studies have been examining the influence of coronavirus on economic and demographic indicators of various countries and regions in the period from 2020 to 2021. However, little attention is paid to the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic for Northern and Arctic regions. The present study aims to identify the characteristics of population reproduction in the northern oil and gas regions and consider factors affecting the morbidity and mortality from Covid-19 in the post-Soviet and coronavirus periods. In particular, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug — Yugra (KhMAO) and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YaNAO), the Northern and Arctic regions of the Ural Federal District, were examined. The impact of the pandemic on population reproduction in the Ural North was assessed taking into account the regional demographic potential. To this end, the methods of retrospective and statistical analysis, aggregation, grouping, averaging and analogy approaches were utilised. The conducted retrospective analysis revealed the dependence of demographic processes on the time of settlement and development of the territory. In most regions and subregions of the Russian North and Arctic, with the exception of KhMAO and YaNAO, a gradual decrease in the population was observed. In 2020, mortality among patients with Covid-19 in the Ural North was lower than the national average, while the proportion of infected people to total population, on the contrary, was higher. This can be explained by the lower proportion of elderly in Yugra and YaNAO compared to other Russian regions. The research demonstrated that the mortality and birth rates in the most reproductive groups (people aged 20-29 and 30-39) were not affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. The main risk group is the older population aged 60-65 and over, determining the rate and number of deaths from coronavirus. The statistical analysis confirmed the existence of an eight-month cycle of Covid-19 waves from the lowest point to the peak. Future studies will focus on assessing the consequences of the pandemic for the population of the Arctic region at the municipal level.
{"title":"Characteristics of Population Reproduction in the Ural North","authors":"V. Loginov","doi":"10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-6","url":null,"abstract":"Numerous studies have been examining the influence of coronavirus on economic and demographic indicators of various countries and regions in the period from 2020 to 2021. However, little attention is paid to the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic for Northern and Arctic regions. The present study aims to identify the characteristics of population reproduction in the northern oil and gas regions and consider factors affecting the morbidity and mortality from Covid-19 in the post-Soviet and coronavirus periods. In particular, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug — Yugra (KhMAO) and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YaNAO), the Northern and Arctic regions of the Ural Federal District, were examined. The impact of the pandemic on population reproduction in the Ural North was assessed taking into account the regional demographic potential. To this end, the methods of retrospective and statistical analysis, aggregation, grouping, averaging and analogy approaches were utilised. The conducted retrospective analysis revealed the dependence of demographic processes on the time of settlement and development of the territory. In most regions and subregions of the Russian North and Arctic, with the exception of KhMAO and YaNAO, a gradual decrease in the population was observed. In 2020, mortality among patients with Covid-19 in the Ural North was lower than the national average, while the proportion of infected people to total population, on the contrary, was higher. This can be explained by the lower proportion of elderly in Yugra and YaNAO compared to other Russian regions. The research demonstrated that the mortality and birth rates in the most reproductive groups (people aged 20-29 and 30-39) were not affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. The main risk group is the older population aged 60-65 and over, determining the rate and number of deaths from coronavirus. The statistical analysis confirmed the existence of an eight-month cycle of Covid-19 waves from the lowest point to the peak. Future studies will focus on assessing the consequences of the pandemic for the population of the Arctic region at the municipal level.","PeriodicalId":51978,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika Regiona-Economy of Region","volume":"81 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91397891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-15
I. Ushachev, V. V. Maslova, A. Kolesnikov
Currently, the Russian agricultural sector aims to simultaneously achieve two priority goals: to ensure import substitution (or the country’s food security, taking into account rational consumption standards) and to increase exports of agricultural products and food. In this regard, the present study develops proposals for improving agricultural policy and linking these two tasks. The study analysed existing normative legal documents in the field of agricultural policy management and agricultural exports development, relevant foreign experience, as well as Russian and international statistics. It was revealed that an increase in agricultural food production and in the mass of commodities led to export growth. As a result, the negative balance of foreign trade in food decreased, and Russia became a net exporter in 2020-2021. The structure of agri-food exports was examined in order to identify the export potential. Approximately 1/3 of exported goods belong to the group of low-processed products, while only 15 % are highly processed products, which are characterised by a significant negative balance. Competitiveness of products, which plays the most important role in increasing exports, requires the development and implementation of domestic advanced scientific and technological solutions. According to the competitiveness assessment, Russia is a competitive supplier of a wide range of agri-food products, since the prices offered by Russian farmers and exporters are lower or comparable to the prices of major global exporters. Since export growth depends on an increase in agricultural food production, production growth opportunities were considered. The analysis of the consumer purchasing power and food consumption demonstrated their significant differentiation, both by decile groups and by place of residence. The presented findings can be used to improve agricultural policy and adjust state support for the agricultural industry aimed at its effective development.
{"title":"Increasing the Volume of Agro-Industrial Production to Ensure Food Security and Increase the Export Potential of the Russian Agricultural Sector","authors":"I. Ushachev, V. V. Maslova, A. Kolesnikov","doi":"10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-15","url":null,"abstract":"Currently, the Russian agricultural sector aims to simultaneously achieve two priority goals: to ensure import substitution (or the country’s food security, taking into account rational consumption standards) and to increase exports of agricultural products and food. In this regard, the present study develops proposals for improving agricultural policy and linking these two tasks. The study analysed existing normative legal documents in the field of agricultural policy management and agricultural exports development, relevant foreign experience, as well as Russian and international statistics. It was revealed that an increase in agricultural food production and in the mass of commodities led to export growth. As a result, the negative balance of foreign trade in food decreased, and Russia became a net exporter in 2020-2021. The structure of agri-food exports was examined in order to identify the export potential. Approximately 1/3 of exported goods belong to the group of low-processed products, while only 15 % are highly processed products, which are characterised by a significant negative balance. Competitiveness of products, which plays the most important role in increasing exports, requires the development and implementation of domestic advanced scientific and technological solutions. According to the competitiveness assessment, Russia is a competitive supplier of a wide range of agri-food products, since the prices offered by Russian farmers and exporters are lower or comparable to the prices of major global exporters. Since export growth depends on an increase in agricultural food production, production growth opportunities were considered. The analysis of the consumer purchasing power and food consumption demonstrated their significant differentiation, both by decile groups and by place of residence. The presented findings can be used to improve agricultural policy and adjust state support for the agricultural industry aimed at its effective development.","PeriodicalId":51978,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika Regiona-Economy of Region","volume":"73 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72576674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-24
D. Al-Najjar, H. Al-Najjar, N. Al-Rousan
Stock markets are an essential backbone for the economy worldwide; their indices provide all interested parties with indicators regarding the performance of firms listed in the financial market due to tracking the daily transactions. This study aims to investigate factors that affect the stock exchange directly so that it simplifies building a prediction model for the exchange index in Jordan’s financial market. The study hypothesis assumes that some sub-sectors are most influential in creating the stock market prediction model. Therefore, this study applies four feature selection methods on 23 sub-sectors and Amman Stock Exchange Index (ASEI100) for the period 2008–2018. The top 10 attributes from each selection method are combined, and the frequency table is used to find the highly trusted attributes. Moreover, linear regression with ordinary least square regression is used to test the validity of the top factors that frequently occurred in the four methods and their effect on ASEI. The results found that there are six main sub-sectors directly affecting the general index in Jordan: Health Care Services, Mining and Extraction Industries, Textiles, Leather and Clothing, Real Estate, Financial Services and Transportation. These sectors can be utilised to predict the movements of the Amman Stock Exchange Index in Jordan. Also, the linear regression model output showed a statistically significant relationship between the six sub-sectors (independent variables) and ASEI (dependent variable). Investors can use this paper’s findings to signal the most important sectors in Jordan. Thus, it helps in taking investment decisions.
{"title":"Long-Term General Index Prediction Based on Feature Selection and Search Methods: Amman Stock Exchange Market","authors":"D. Al-Najjar, H. Al-Najjar, N. Al-Rousan","doi":"10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-24","url":null,"abstract":"Stock markets are an essential backbone for the economy worldwide; their indices provide all interested parties with indicators regarding the performance of firms listed in the financial market due to tracking the daily transactions. This study aims to investigate factors that affect the stock exchange directly so that it simplifies building a prediction model for the exchange index in Jordan’s financial market. The study hypothesis assumes that some sub-sectors are most influential in creating the stock market prediction model. Therefore, this study applies four feature selection methods on 23 sub-sectors and Amman Stock Exchange Index (ASEI100) for the period 2008–2018. The top 10 attributes from each selection method are combined, and the frequency table is used to find the highly trusted attributes. Moreover, linear regression with ordinary least square regression is used to test the validity of the top factors that frequently occurred in the four methods and their effect on ASEI. The results found that there are six main sub-sectors directly affecting the general index in Jordan: Health Care Services, Mining and Extraction Industries, Textiles, Leather and Clothing, Real Estate, Financial Services and Transportation. These sectors can be utilised to predict the movements of the Amman Stock Exchange Index in Jordan. Also, the linear regression model output showed a statistically significant relationship between the six sub-sectors (independent variables) and ASEI (dependent variable). Investors can use this paper’s findings to signal the most important sectors in Jordan. Thus, it helps in taking investment decisions.","PeriodicalId":51978,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika Regiona-Economy of Region","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84831690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-10
M. A. Eskindarov, Yu. M. Gruzina, Kh. P. Kharchilava, M. V. Melnichuk
The present article examines the role of human capital in Russia’s transition to a digital economy. In this context, it is necessary to establish new models of the functioning and development of the Russian national economy and increase digital literacy among the general population. We hypothesise that human capital plays an important role in the process of digitalisation of state institutions and commercial companies. Particular attention is paid to the effect of introducing mechanisms to support and promote private capital to advance regional development. The research aims to highlight the role of human capital as a driver of the national and regional economy in the transition to the post-industrial state. To this end, the following objectives were achieved: parameters of the sapio-economic system were identified, the obtained results were interpreted; the experience of public and private institutions in creating conditions for innovative development of human capital was analysed (both in private sectors and in social institutions). The research methodology includes various scientific methods — induction, deduction, abstraction — as well as econometric analysis techniques. The study reveals indicators of interdependence between human capital development and regional socio-economic growth. As a result, the paper described the tasks of educational institutions focused on developing necessary skills to ensure the operation of digital systems. Additionally, the research identified ways to advance the development of the domestic digital environment, including through the creation of personnel forecasting practices for high-tech and knowledge-intensive industries. Recommendations for the successful implementation of long-term programmes for innovative development of the digital environment were given. Thus, the conducted analysis confirmed the hypothesis that human capital is a necessary condition for the development of knowledge-intensive industries and an important factor in the creation of regional value added and formation of the gross regional product.
{"title":"Роль человеческого капитала в цифровой экономике на институциональном и региональном уровнях","authors":"M. A. Eskindarov, Yu. M. Gruzina, Kh. P. Kharchilava, M. V. Melnichuk","doi":"10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-10","url":null,"abstract":"The present article examines the role of human capital in Russia’s transition to a digital economy. In this context, it is necessary to establish new models of the functioning and development of the Russian national economy and increase digital literacy among the general population. We hypothesise that human capital plays an important role in the process of digitalisation of state institutions and commercial companies. Particular attention is paid to the effect of introducing mechanisms to support and promote private capital to advance regional development. The research aims to highlight the role of human capital as a driver of the national and regional economy in the transition to the post-industrial state. To this end, the following objectives were achieved: parameters of the sapio-economic system were identified, the obtained results were interpreted; the experience of public and private institutions in creating conditions for innovative development of human capital was analysed (both in private sectors and in social institutions). The research methodology includes various scientific methods — induction, deduction, abstraction — as well as econometric analysis techniques. The study reveals indicators of interdependence between human capital development and regional socio-economic growth. As a result, the paper described the tasks of educational institutions focused on developing necessary skills to ensure the operation of digital systems. Additionally, the research identified ways to advance the development of the domestic digital environment, including through the creation of personnel forecasting practices for high-tech and knowledge-intensive industries. Recommendations for the successful implementation of long-term programmes for innovative development of the digital environment were given. Thus, the conducted analysis confirmed the hypothesis that human capital is a necessary condition for the development of knowledge-intensive industries and an important factor in the creation of regional value added and formation of the gross regional product.","PeriodicalId":51978,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika Regiona-Economy of Region","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82855509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-18
A. Mazurek-Kusiak, B. Bednarska
The aim of the study is to analyse the attitudes of the society of Eastern Poland (Lublin voivodeship, Podkarpackie voivodeship and Podlaskie voivodeship) towards a range of hotels that declare the pro-ecological activities in their offer. Efforts have been made to identify barriers to higher prices for respondents from the surveyed regions as an increased cost of protecting the environment. The paper presents the hypothesis: on the market of accommodation services in Eastern Poland there are groups of tourists who, when booking an accommodation, pay attention to the environmental aspects of hotel operations, including the ISO 14001 certificate, an economical energy policy and a rational waste policy in the hotel. To achieve the intended purpose, the study used the method of a diagnostic survey with a research tool in the form of an original questionnaire that provided necessary data. The study was conducted from May to October 2017 among residents of Eastern Poland (0.02 % the population of residents in Lublin voivodeship, Podkarpackie voivodeship and Podlaskie voivodeship) using hotel accommodation services. The discriminant function analysis was used for statistical calculation. Among the population of Eastern Poland aged over 60, the interest in choosing a hotel that conducts pro-environmental activities is low. As many as 25.89 % of them are not able to pay a higher price for an accommodation in a hotel that conducts activities and investments in the field of environmental protection. This is mainly due to the low income of this social group. However, in groups of younger Poles from the Eastern Poland Region, the lower the age range, the fewer people would refuse to additionally pay for a service in a hotel that pursues pro-ecological policy. Eastern Poles up to 30 years old are more environmentally conscious. As many as 86.31 % of them are able to pay up higher price for a night in an eco-friendly hotel. At the same time, these people generate a greater demand for the services of ecological hotels. The significant statistical factors in choosing an eco-friendly hotel by guests from Eastern Poland were: the preparation of meals from organic products, running a cost-effective energy policy and having the ISO 14001 certificate. However, the statistically significant barriers were: low income related of consumers from Eastern Poland, lack of knowledge about environmental activities in hotels, no promotion of ecological hotels, to desire to purchase the cheapest accommodation by guests.
{"title":"Society of Eastern Poland in Light of the Use of Hotels Providing Pro-Environmental Activities","authors":"A. Mazurek-Kusiak, B. Bednarska","doi":"10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-18","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the study is to analyse the attitudes of the society of Eastern Poland (Lublin voivodeship, Podkarpackie voivodeship and Podlaskie voivodeship) towards a range of hotels that declare the pro-ecological activities in their offer. Efforts have been made to identify barriers to higher prices for respondents from the surveyed regions as an increased cost of protecting the environment. The paper presents the hypothesis: on the market of accommodation services in Eastern Poland there are groups of tourists who, when booking an accommodation, pay attention to the environmental aspects of hotel operations, including the ISO 14001 certificate, an economical energy policy and a rational waste policy in the hotel. To achieve the intended purpose, the study used the method of a diagnostic survey with a research tool in the form of an original questionnaire that provided necessary data. The study was conducted from May to October 2017 among residents of Eastern Poland (0.02 % the population of residents in Lublin voivodeship, Podkarpackie voivodeship and Podlaskie voivodeship) using hotel accommodation services. The discriminant function analysis was used for statistical calculation. Among the population of Eastern Poland aged over 60, the interest in choosing a hotel that conducts pro-environmental activities is low. As many as 25.89 % of them are not able to pay a higher price for an accommodation in a hotel that conducts activities and investments in the field of environmental protection. This is mainly due to the low income of this social group. However, in groups of younger Poles from the Eastern Poland Region, the lower the age range, the fewer people would refuse to additionally pay for a service in a hotel that pursues pro-ecological policy. Eastern Poles up to 30 years old are more environmentally conscious. As many as 86.31 % of them are able to pay up higher price for a night in an eco-friendly hotel. At the same time, these people generate a greater demand for the services of ecological hotels. The significant statistical factors in choosing an eco-friendly hotel by guests from Eastern Poland were: the preparation of meals from organic products, running a cost-effective energy policy and having the ISO 14001 certificate. However, the statistically significant barriers were: low income related of consumers from Eastern Poland, lack of knowledge about environmental activities in hotels, no promotion of ecological hotels, to desire to purchase the cheapest accommodation by guests.","PeriodicalId":51978,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika Regiona-Economy of Region","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81098814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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