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Analysis of the Digital Readiness and the Level of the ICT Development in Kazakhstan’s Regions 哈萨克斯坦地区数字准备情况和信息通信技术发展水平分析
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-2-12
A. Kireyeva, Z. Satpayeva, M. Urdabayev
The level of digital readiness and the application of information and communication technologies (ICT) are key factors of any innovation policy. This research has highlighted the development of analysis of the degree of digital readiness and assessment methods of digital transformations, which can be used at various levels of business management to formulate digital transformation strategies. The present study investigates the theoretical framework in the field of innovation and spatial development considering the impact of the level of ICT. The research was conducted using index and economic-statistical methods based on a systematic approach. We developed a methodological tool adapted to the regional management level. The ICT development index, Krugman localisation index and Herfindahl-Hirschman index were modified to analyse digital readiness and ICT development at the regional level. The algorithm includes the following steps: assessment of the internet usage level; analysis of the degree of costs for the production of ICT; evaluation of the digital literacy rate of the population; evaluation of the degree of regional industry specialisation in the field of ICT. It was revealed that Kazakhstan’s regions have varying levels of ICT development, which is why they have different prerequisites and prospects for digitalising their economy. The agglomerations that could become “growth poles” of Kazakhstan’s knowledge-based economy were identified, such as Almaty city, Nur-Sultan city, Karaganda, and Aktobe regions. Government bodies can use the research findings for Kazakhstani territories’ digital modernisation.
数字化准备水平和信息通信技术(ICT)的应用是任何创新政策的关键因素。本研究强调了数字化准备程度分析和数字化转型评估方法的发展,可用于企业管理的各个层面,以制定数字化转型战略。本文研究了考虑信息通信技术水平影响的创新与空间发展理论框架。在系统分析的基础上,运用指数法和经济统计学方法进行了研究。我们开发了一种适合区域管理水平的方法工具。对ICT发展指数、克鲁格曼本地化指数和赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数进行了修正,以分析区域层面的数字准备程度和ICT发展。该算法包括以下几个步骤:评估互联网使用水平;信息通信技术生产的成本程度分析;人口数字识字率评估;评估ICT领域的区域产业专业化程度。据透露,哈萨克斯坦各地区的信息通信技术发展水平参差不齐,这就是为什么它们在实现经济数字化方面具有不同的先决条件和前景。确定了阿拉木图市、努尔苏丹市、卡拉干达和阿克托别地区等可能成为哈萨克斯坦知识经济“增长极”的城市群。政府机构可以将研究结果用于哈萨克斯坦领土的数字化现代化。
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引用次数: 4
Transition to a New Technological Paradigm as a Determinant of the Population Welfare Growth in Russian Regions 向新技术范式过渡是俄罗斯地区人口福利增长的决定因素
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-1
T. Rostovskaya, O. Zolotareva
Nowadays, intensive technological development and transition to a new (VI) technological paradigm are seen as determinants of the quality of economic and welfare growth. Thus, analysis of interregional differentiation of Russian constituent entities and assessment of the relationship between their socio-economic indicators and technological development became relevant. However, insufficient attention is paid to the influence of the regional technological development on the welfare of residents. In this regard, the present study aims to assess this influence in Russia, as well as to link the population welfare growth with the phases of Kondratieff waves and the stages of the technological paradigm. The research methodology includes: cluster analysis used to group regions according to a set of parameters characterising the welfare of their inhabitants; calculation of composite indicators that were applied to create a ranking of regions; estimation of correlation coefficients. An approach was developed to analyse the regional technological development based on a composite indicator that includes three indices: internal costs for research and development; the share of enterprises implementing technological innovations in the total number of surveyed organisations; the share of innovative goods, works, services in the total volume of shipped goods, works, services. The constituent entities of Russia were ranked according to the obtained composite indicator of technological development. Then, 20 leading and 20 lagging regions were identified, for which the correlation coefficients were calculated. The study concluded that an increase in the welfare is achieved at the growth stage of a new technological paradigm, while an increase in poverty and a decrease in incomes of the population can be observed at the maturity stage of the previous technological paradigms.
如今,密集的技术发展和向新的(VI)技术范式的过渡被视为经济和福利增长质量的决定因素。因此,分析俄罗斯各组成实体的区域间差别和评价其社会经济指标与技术发展之间的关系是有意义的。然而,区域技术发展对居民福利的影响却没有得到足够的重视。在这方面,本研究旨在评估这种影响在俄罗斯,并将人口福利增长与康德拉季耶夫波的阶段和技术范式的阶段联系起来。研究方法包括:聚类分析用于根据一组表征其居民福利的参数对区域进行分组;计算用于创建区域排名的综合指标;相关系数的估计。开发了一种方法,根据一个包括三个指数的综合指标来分析区域技术发展:研究和发展的内部成本;实施技术创新的企业占被调查机构总数的比例;创新产品、工程、服务在运输产品、工程、服务总量中的份额。根据获得的技术发展综合指标对俄罗斯的组成实体进行排名。然后,确定20个领先区和20个滞后区,并计算其相关系数。研究认为,在新技术范式的成长阶段,社会福利的增加是实现的,而在旧技术范式的成熟阶段,人口贫困的增加和收入的减少是可以观察到的。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Spatial Models of Interregional Economic Cooperation in the Field of Innovative Economy 创新经济领域区域间经济合作的空间优化模式
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-2
A. Mosalev
Domestic cooperation of companies in the field of innovative economy seems to be a promising research area in Russia, especially considering recent macroeconomic events caused by sanctions, in particular, restrictions on the import of high-tech goods. Thus, the present study examines the optimal spatial scale of interregional innovation cooperation. The article presents an analysis of approaches to determining the optimal number of k-matrices of relations between innovation active regions. It is hypothesised that the innovative activity of the business sector in one region does not influence the innovative activity of its neighbours and vice versa. Stepwise regression was applied to identify the core explanatory variable. Based on the spatial weights matrices, a spatial econometric model was constructed using the least squares method. Further, the global Moran’s I was employed to test the spatial correlation, in particular, local indicators of spatial association (LISA) using the queen criterion of contiguity were utilised to determine the dependencies of innovative activity between neighbouring regions. The analysis used panel data from all Russian regions for the period from 2010 to 2019, as well as spatial econometric modelling to identify the side effects of the optimal spatial scale. As a result, the study revealed the presence of spatial correlation in the levels of regional innovative activity, the size of markets, as well as institutional support for enterprises in individual regions. Additionally, the research identified factors positively affecting the scale of innovative activity of the regions and adjacent territories, such as regional domestic income, the number of participants in innovation processes and infrastructure facilities. It has been established that the neighbourhood of regions characterised by the presence of many participants in innovation processes (at least 100 units), as well as innovation infrastructure facilities (at least 810 units) will be seen as the optimal scale of regional cooperation.
在俄罗斯,企业在创新经济领域的国内合作似乎是一个很有前景的研究领域,特别是考虑到最近由制裁引起的宏观经济事件,特别是对高科技产品进口的限制。因此,本研究考察了区域间创新合作的最优空间尺度。本文分析了确定创新活跃区域间关系k矩阵最优个数的方法。假设一个地区的商业部门的创新活动不会影响其邻国的创新活动,反之亦然。采用逐步回归方法确定核心解释变量。在空间权重矩阵的基础上,利用最小二乘法建立了空间计量模型。此外,采用全球Moran’s I来检验空间相关性,特别是利用邻近标准的空间关联局部指标(LISA)来确定相邻区域之间创新活动的依赖关系。该分析使用了2010年至2019年期间俄罗斯所有地区的面板数据,以及空间计量经济学模型来确定最佳空间尺度的副作用。结果表明,区域创新活动水平、市场规模、企业制度支持等方面均存在空间相关性。此外,研究还发现了区域国内收入、创新过程参与者数量和基础设施设施等对区域和邻近地区创新活动规模产生积极影响的因素。已经确定的是,以许多创新过程参与者(至少100个单位)以及创新基础设施设施(至少810个单位)的存在为特征的区域邻近将被视为区域合作的最佳规模。
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引用次数: 0
Organisational, Methodological and Economic Foundations for Creating Rural Resorts in the Hinterland of Sochi 在索契腹地创建乡村度假胜地的组织、方法和经济基础
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-14
A. V. Ryndin, A. Platonov, A. Saryan, L. S. Kocharsky
The resort city of Sochi includes both coastal and mountain tourist and recreational clusters. Nowadays, the city needs to involve natural and recreational resources and historical and cultural heritage assets of underdeveloped low-mountain areas and subtropical agricultural lands in the tourism industry. The present research aims to determine scientific, methodological and organisational foundations for sustainable development of the aforementioned areas. The study reveals the organisational, managerial and legislative aspects of the contradiction between the legal status of rural areas and recreational objectives of the Sochi resort. Co-development of both agricultural activities and most promising types of tourism in hinterland (namely, medical, agrarian, ethnic and cognitive tourism) will help overcome this contradiction. The socio-economic impact of tourism and infrastructure development in rural districts of Sochi will contribute to the increase in employment and entrepreneurship, as well as improve the welfare of indigenous people. Subsequently, due to the creation of rural resorts, the potential of balneological and natural curative resources, unique historical and cultural heritage, natural landscapes and subtropical agricultural lands can be fully realised. The research findings can be used to elaborate and implement sound programmes for the spatial development of rural resorts and agro-tourism destinations in Sochi. Further research will focus on possible ways to transform rural resources into factors for the production of an integrated tourist product with unique valuable properties.
度假城市索契包括沿海和山区旅游和休闲集群。如今,城市需要将欠发达的低山区和亚热带农业用地的自然休闲资源和历史文化遗产资产纳入旅游产业。本研究旨在确定上述地区可持续发展的科学、方法和组织基础。这项研究揭示了农村地区的法律地位与索契度假胜地的娱乐目标之间的矛盾在组织、管理和立法方面的问题。农业活动和内陆最有前途的旅游类型(即医疗、农业、民族和认知旅游)的共同发展将有助于克服这一矛盾。索契农村地区旅游和基础设施发展的社会经济影响将有助于增加就业和创业,并改善土著人民的福利。随后,由于乡村度假村的创建,温泉和自然治疗资源、独特的历史文化遗产、自然景观和亚热带农业用地的潜力可以得到充分实现。研究结果可用于制定和实施索契农村度假胜地和农业旅游目的地空间发展的合理方案。进一步的研究将侧重于如何将农村资源转化为生产具有独特价值属性的综合旅游产品的要素。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of Energy Supply to the Yamal Peninsula Based on Fuzzy Multicriteria Analysis 基于模糊多准则分析的亚马尔半岛能源供应评价
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-17
M. Petrov, L. Serkov, K. Kozhov
Provision of useful energy is the most important condition for realising the potential of underdeveloped regions. For new development areas, including the Yamal Peninsula, there are various energy alternatives. Based on well-known basic approaches, the article presents a procedure for formalising the analysis of alternatives mostly using qualitative initial data. At the pre-project stage, only limited and fuzzy information (predominantly in the form of expert opinions) is accessible. To achieve the set goal, six criteria for export assessment were selected and further processed using fuzzy multicriteria decision-making models based on fuzzy multicriteria analysis of alternatives in order to formalise logical reasoning with vague or imprecise statements. Due to insufficient measurements for constructing fuzzy sets, linguistic estimates of intuitive or logical pairwise comparisons were formalised using the Bellman–Zadeh model, the Saaty scale and the construction of membership functions. The fuzzy set was obtained by finding the eigenvector and the largest eigenvalue for the pairwise comparison matrix. Implementation of the maximin criterion along with the concession matrix allowed us to distinguish between alternatives when obtaining the same or similar estimates. As a result, the study showed the priority of diversification of primary energy source to provide useful energy to consumers in Yamal. According to the model, the most preferable source is atomic energy. In second place are gas turbine technologies, which are significantly ahead of wind energy sources. Diesel generators are considered the least favourable. Thus, the results of fuzzy modelling correspond with the explanatory factors of choice. The fuzzy set method with the transformation of linguistic estimates into quantitative ones can also be included in the apparatus of multicriteria selection with respect to combined options. The research findings can be used to prepare comprehensive strategies and schemes for location of industries and the energy infrastructure in remote Arctic territories.
提供有用的能源是实现欠发达地区潜力的最重要条件。对于包括亚马尔半岛在内的新开发地区,有各种各样的能源替代品。基于众所周知的基本方法,本文提出了一种主要使用定性初始数据形式化替代分析的程序。在项目前阶段,只有有限和模糊的信息(主要以专家意见的形式)是可获得的。为了实现既定目标,选择了六个出口评估标准,并使用基于模糊多准则分析的模糊多准则决策模型进行进一步处理,以便将模糊或不精确的陈述形式化逻辑推理。由于构建模糊集的测量不足,直觉或逻辑两两比较的语言估计使用Bellman-Zadeh模型,Saaty量表和隶属函数的构造形式化。通过求两两比较矩阵的特征向量和最大特征值得到模糊集。maximin准则和让步矩阵的实现使我们能够在获得相同或相似的估计时区分不同的选择。因此,这项研究表明,为向亚马尔的消费者提供有用的能源,应优先考虑初级能源的多样化。根据该模型,最可取的能源是原子能。排在第二位的是燃气轮机技术,它明显领先于风能。柴油发电机被认为是最不利的。因此,模糊模型的结果与选择的解释因素相对应。将语言估计转化为定量估计的模糊集方法也可用于组合选项的多准则选择装置。研究结果可用于制定北极偏远地区工业和能源基础设施选址的综合战略和计划。
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引用次数: 0
Regional Analysis of Digital Inclusion in the C2C Market of Russia 俄罗斯C2C市场数字包容的区域分析
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-2-10
S. Kulpin, G. Savchuk, O. Iakimova
Economy digitalisation creates new market mechanisms and regional development opportunities. In certain circumstances, the C2C (consumer-to-consumer) Internet market can act as a basis for establishing an entrepreneurial culture; subsequently, it can turn into an economic growth point of a region. However, since the entrepreneurial potential of regional digital markets varies, it is crucial to investigate these differences and the reasons for their occurrence. In the present study, the entrepreneurial potential of residents is measured through their digital inclusion in C2C Internet markets. The article analyses and characterises the active sellers of the Avito online classified in Russian regions. The data were collected using the content analysis of ads posted by individuals on the Avito platform (n = 1,597). Correlation and factor analysis were used for interpretation. The conducted analysis showed the following results. First, the study revealed a relationship between regional digitalisation and the size of the group of active sellers: a higher level of digitalisation of a territory (federal district) means that more residents start to actively use Avito for e-commerce. Second, the paper demonstrated the importance of locality, since the number of active sellers among Avito users is bigger in large cities. Third, it was proved that additional opportunities provided by the C2C market are more attractive for women than for men. The obtained findings can be used by authorities planning the regional development, as well as by researchers of the Internet economy describing and analysing the digitalisation processes. Further studies may identify and examine in detail the factors defining digital inclusion in C2C markets of Russian regions.
经济数字化创造了新的市场机制和区域发展机遇。在某些情况下,C2C(消费者对消费者)互联网市场可以作为建立创业文化的基础;随后,它可以成为一个地区的经济增长点。然而,由于区域数字市场的创业潜力各不相同,因此研究这些差异及其产生的原因至关重要。在本研究中,通过C2C互联网市场中居民的数字包容来衡量居民的创业潜力。本文对俄罗斯地区Avito在线分类的活跃卖家进行了分析和特征分析。数据是通过对Avito平台上个人发布的广告的内容分析收集的(n = 1597)。采用相关分析和因子分析进行解释。进行的分析显示了以下结果。首先,该研究揭示了地区数字化与活跃卖家群体规模之间的关系:一个地区(联邦区)的数字化水平越高,意味着更多的居民开始积极使用Avito进行电子商务。其次,本文论证了地域性的重要性,因为大城市Avito用户中活跃卖家的数量更大。第三,C2C市场提供的额外机会对女性的吸引力大于对男性的吸引力。所获得的发现可用于规划区域发展的当局,以及互联网经济研究人员描述和分析数字化过程。进一步的研究可能会确定并详细检查俄罗斯地区C2C市场中定义数字包容的因素。
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引用次数: 0
Interregional Differentiation of the Age of Exit from the Labour Market in Russia 俄罗斯劳动力市场退出年龄的地域差异
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-7
V. Lyashok, E. Varshavskaya
Actual retirement age is one of the most important characteristics of older people employment and retirement behaviour. Since the mid-1990s, the effective retirement age has been used to estimate the age of exit from the labour market of older workers. In the context of significant socio-economic differentiation of Russian regions, this parameter should be assessed not only at the national, but also at the regional level. The article presents estimates of the age of exit from the labour market (effective retirement age) in Russian regions for 2010-2019, as well as identifies the factors determining its interregional differentiation. For the first time, the effective retirement age and its determining factors were assessed using Russian data. In particular, Labour Force Survey and regional statistics were analysed. To calculate the effective retirement age, both static and dynamic approaches were applied; econometric modelling was used to identify its determinants. The study revealed that in 2019 the age of exit from the labour market was 62.4 years for men and 60.2 years for women. The effective retirement age for Russian men and women is higher than the normal retirement age in the country, but is lower than the average of most OECD countries. For the period 2010-2019, the age of exit from the labour market remained practically unchanged for men, while it slightly increased for women (by 0.7 years). The age of exit from the labour market is characterised by a fairly significant and stable regional differentiation. The determinants of the effective retirement age are the northern status of a region, the relative level of pensions in the region (the ratio of the average pension to the average wage), the share of employees with higher education. The research results can be used to develop measures to increase the older people employment. Changes in the age of exit from the labour market caused by the pension reform require a further study.
实际退休年龄是老年人就业和退休行为的最重要特征之一。自上世纪90年代中期以来,有效退休年龄一直被用来估计老年工人退出劳动力市场的年龄。在俄罗斯各地区社会经济差别很大的情况下,不仅应该在国家一级,而且应该在区域一级评估这一参数。本文提出了2010-2019年俄罗斯地区劳动力市场退出年龄(有效退休年龄)的估计,并确定了决定其地区间差异的因素。首次使用俄罗斯的数据对有效退休年龄及其决定因素进行了评估。特别是对劳动力调查和区域统计进行了分析。有效退休年龄的计算采用静态和动态两种方法;计量经济模型被用来确定其决定因素。该研究显示,2019年男性退出劳动力市场的年龄为62.4岁,女性为60.2岁。俄罗斯男性和女性的实际退休年龄高于该国的正常退休年龄,但低于大多数经合组织国家的平均水平。2010-2019年期间,男性退出劳动力市场的年龄几乎没有变化,而女性的退出年龄略有增加(增加了0.7岁)。劳动力市场退出年龄的特征是相当显著和稳定的区域差异。实际退休年龄的决定因素是一个地区的北部地位、该地区养老金的相对水平(平均养老金与平均工资的比率)、受过高等教育的雇员比例。研究结果可用于制定增加老年人就业的措施。养老金改革导致的劳动力市场退出年龄的变化需要进一步研究。
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引用次数: 0
Configuration of Regional Entrepreneurial Ecosystems through the Prism of Spatial and Hierarchical Analysis 基于空间和层次分析的区域创业生态系统配置
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-4-1
R. Malikov, K. Grishin, V. Timiryanova
Nowadays, entrepreneurship should be analysed from the perspective of interconnectedness and mutual influence of elements of regional economic systems, since the type and intensity of their interaction determine the emergence of windows of opportunity for entrepreneurs. Thus, the present study uses an ecosystem approach. We hypothesise that the spatial configuration of the performance of regional entrepreneurial ecosystems (REES) largely depends on the interaction between local entrepreneurial ecosystems, as well as on the cumulative impact of REES on local entrepreneurial ecosystems. Using the methodology of spatial and hierarchical analysis, the study investigates the dependence of the development of local entrepreneurial ecosystems on their embeddedness in regional entrepreneurial ecosystems, assesses the spatial connectivity of REES, and considers relationships between small and large businesses in regional entrepreneurial ecosystems. The global Moran’s I and the Getis-Ord statistics for regional entrepreneurial ecosystems used to assess their spatial connectivity were calculated based on the analysis of data concerning the shipping volume of large and medium enterprises from 2315 municipalities of 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. At the level of local entrepreneurial ecosystems, the study revealed the link between the variation in the values of the shipping volume of business entities and their belonging to specific regional entrepreneurial ecosystems (constituent entities of the Russian Federation). In addition, a positive relationship was found between the shipping volume of large and medium enterprises operating in local entrepreneurial ecosystems, the shipping volume of goods produced by small enterprises and the average revenue of individual entrepreneurs. Considering the identified factors of spatial determination of regional entrepreneurial ecosystems and the closeness of interregional and intermunicipal ties of local entrepreneurial ecosystems, it is possible to generalise the best practices of spatial organisation of regional business communities and create effective development models.
现在,应该从区域经济体系要素的相互联系和相互影响的角度来分析企业家精神,因为它们相互作用的类型和强度决定了企业家机会之窗的出现。因此,本研究采用生态系统方法。研究认为,区域创业生态系统绩效的空间配置在很大程度上取决于区域创业生态系统之间的相互作用,以及区域创业生态系统对区域创业生态系统的累积影响。运用空间层次分析方法,研究了地方创业生态系统的发展对区域创业生态系统嵌入性的依赖,评估了REES的空间连通性,并考虑了区域创业生态系统中大小企业之间的关系。基于对俄罗斯联邦85个组成实体的2315个城市大中型企业运输量数据的分析,计算了用于评估其空间连通性的区域创业生态系统的全球Moran 's I和Getis-Ord统计数据。在地方企业生态系统一级,研究揭示了商业实体的运输量的价值变化与它们属于特定区域企业生态系统(俄罗斯联邦的组成实体)之间的联系。此外,在当地创业生态系统中运营的大中型企业的运输量、小企业生产的货物运输量和个体企业家的平均收入之间存在正相关关系。考虑到区域创业生态系统的空间决定因素以及地方创业生态系统的区域间和城市间联系的密切程度,有可能概括区域商业社区空间组织的最佳实践并创建有效的发展模式。
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引用次数: 0
Revisiting Rural Economic Structural Transformation from the Viewpoint of Regional Linkages 从区域联系视角重新审视农村经济结构转型
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-2-1
B. Truong Cong
Regional studies, particularly in rural areas, have attracted great attention from scholars and policy-makers. However, almost all existing literature focused on the growth of these areas while giving little consideration to converting economic activities or economic structural transformation, which plays the main role in sustainable development. Additionally, the studies about economic structural transformation mainly mention the factors, which are changes inside certain economic areas and ignore the outside effects while any geographical area also has spatial relationships. To fill this gap, this study blends the economic structure and regional linkages theories to supply a comprehensive view of the relationship between inside and outside factors that influence rural structural transformation by using systematic reviews and meta-analysis methods. The study’s findings consolidate the importance of urban areas and regional linkages, especially spatial interaction, in rural economic structural transformation. More specifically, this study shows that the motivation for structural transformation of rural areas is emanated from urban areas and is transmitted through spatial flows, which are then absorbed in rural areas. The mechanisms through which the motivation affects rural economic structure are productivity, income, and agricultural land. Based on the review, the study lists several further research questions regarding empirical research of rural economic structural transformation through the relationship between rural and urban areas.
区域研究,特别是农村地区的区域研究,已经引起了学者和决策者的高度关注。然而,现有的文献几乎都集中在这些地区的增长上,而很少考虑经济活动的转换或经济结构的转变,而经济活动或经济结构的转变在可持续发展中起着主要作用。此外,关于经济结构转型的研究主要是提到因素,即某些经济区域内部的变化,而忽略了外部的影响,而任何地理区域也存在空间关系。为了填补这一空白,本研究结合经济结构理论和区域联系理论,运用系统综述和元分析的方法,对影响农村结构转型的内外部因素之间的关系进行了全面考察。研究结果巩固了城市地区和区域联系,特别是空间相互作用在农村经济结构转型中的重要性。更具体地说,该研究表明,农村地区结构转型的动力源自城市地区,并通过空间流动传播,然后被农村地区吸收。农业生产动机影响农村经济结构的机制主要有生产率、收入和农地三个方面。在此基础上,提出了通过城乡关系对农村经济结构转型进行实证研究需要进一步研究的几个问题。
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引用次数: 2
Forecasting Electricity Demand in the Russian Federation and Its Regions Taking Into Account Electrification Expansion 考虑电气化扩张的俄罗斯联邦及其地区电力需求预测
IF 0.5 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-2-16
O. Mazurova, E. Galperova, V. Loktionov
A global priority of electrification expansion in all areas is also stated in the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation. The study aims to forecast electricity demand in Russia taking into account possible electrification options in economic sectors. The article presents a multi-stage procedure and a concise review of methodological approaches to the long-term assessment of electricity demand, which considers the impact of complex interrelationships in social, economic and technological policies. In particular, this approach focuses on the regional level, where the interests of energy producers and consumers are reconciled. The current and promising directions of electricity use in Russian regions and economic sectors were analysed based on various statistics and forecasts. The conducted analysis demonstrated the stability of sectoral and territorial energy consumption patterns, as well as a decrease and convergence of values of gross regional product (GRP) energy intensity. Energy consumption of regions varies due to significant differences in industrial specialisation and living standards of the population. The highest energy consumption is observed in developed regions (Central Federal District) or regions with a large share of energy-intensive industries (Siberian Federal District). According to the accepted economic development and electrification expansion strategies for the period 2025–2040, on average, electricity demand in Russian regions is expected to increase by 1.4–1.8 % annually. It is anticipated that the Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts will show the highest growth rates of energy consumption due to the accelerated development of these territories. Predicted dynamics of the gross domestic product (GDP) energy intensity in Russia confirms its compliance with global trends. The research findings may prove useful in creating programmes and development strategies for the country and its regions.
俄罗斯联邦能源战略也提出了在所有领域扩大电气化的全球优先事项。该研究旨在预测俄罗斯的电力需求,同时考虑到经济部门可能的电气化选择。本文提出了一个多阶段的程序,并简要回顾了电力需求长期评估的方法方法,其中考虑了社会、经济和技术政策中复杂相互关系的影响。特别是,这种方法侧重于区域一级,在区域一级,能源生产者和消费者的利益得到协调。根据各种统计数据和预测,分析了俄罗斯各地区和经济部门目前和有希望的电力使用方向。所进行的分析表明,部门和地区能源消费模式的稳定性,以及区域生产总值能源强度值的下降和趋同。不同地区的能源消耗因产业专业化程度和人口生活水平的显著差异而存在差异。能源消耗最高的地区是发达地区(中央联邦区)或能源密集型工业占很大比例的地区(西伯利亚联邦区)。根据公认的2025-2040年期间的经济发展和电气化扩张战略,预计俄罗斯地区的电力需求平均每年将增长1.4% - 1.8%。预计西伯利亚和远东联邦区将由于这些地区的加速发展而显示出最高的能源消耗增长率。俄罗斯国内生产总值(GDP)能源强度的预测动态证实了其符合全球趋势。研究结果可能有助于为该国及其区域制定方案和发展战略。
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引用次数: 0
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Ekonomika Regiona-Economy of Region
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