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Toward the Development of a Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Granular and Multiphase Flows—Part 1: Screening Study and Sensitivity Analysis 颗粒和多相流的验证、验证和不确定度量化框架的发展-第一部分:筛选研究和敏感性分析
IF 0.6 Q4 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.1115/1.4041745
A. Gel, A. Vaidheeswaran, Jordan Musser, C. Tong
Establishing the credibility of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for multiphase flow applications is increasingly becoming a mainstream requirement. However, the established verification and validation (V&V) Standards have been primarily demonstrated for single phase flow applications. Studies to address their applicability for multiphase flows have been limited. Hence, their application may not be trivial and require a thorough investigation. We propose to adopt the ASME V&V 20 Standard and explore its applicability for multiphase flows through several extensions by introducing some of the best practices. In the current study, the proposed verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) framework is presented and its preliminary application is demonstrated using the simulation of granular discharge through a conical hopper commonly employed in several industrial processes. As part of the proposed extensions to the V&V methodology, a detailed survey of subject matter experts including CFD modelers and experimentalists was conducted. The results from the survey highlighted the need for a more quantitative assessment of importance ranking in addition to a sensitivity study before embarking on simulation and experimental campaigns. Hence, a screening study followed by a global sensitivity was performed to identify the most influential parameters for the CFD simulation as the first phase of the process, which is presented in this paper. The results show that particle–particle coefficients of restitution and friction are the most important parameters for the granular discharge flow problem chosen for demonstration of the process. The identification of these parameters is important to determine their effect on the quantities of interest and improve the confidence level in numerical predictions.
为多相流应用建立计算流体动力学(CFD)模型的可信度正日益成为主流要求。然而,已建立的验证和确认(V&V)标准主要用于单相流应用。针对其适用于多相流的研究有限。因此,它们的应用可能并非微不足道,需要进行彻底的调查。我们建议采用ASME V&V 20标准,并通过引入一些最佳实践,通过几个扩展来探索其对多相流的适用性。在当前的研究中,提出了所提出的验证、验证和不确定度量化(VVUQ)框架,并通过模拟几种工业过程中常用的锥形料斗中的颗粒排放来证明其初步应用。作为V&V方法拟议扩展的一部分,对包括CFD建模师和实验者在内的主题专家进行了详细调查。调查结果强调,在开始模拟和实验活动之前,除了进行敏感性研究外,还需要对重要性排名进行更定量的评估。因此,进行了筛选研究,然后进行了全局灵敏度,以确定CFD模拟中最具影响力的参数,作为该过程的第一阶段,如本文所述。结果表明,颗粒-颗粒的恢复系数和摩擦系数是颗粒排放流问题的最重要参数,选择这些参数来演示该过程。这些参数的识别对于确定它们对感兴趣的量的影响以及提高数值预测的置信水平是重要的。
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引用次数: 11
Separability of Mesh Bias and Parametric Uncertainty for a Full System Thermal Analysis 全系统热分析网格偏差的可分离性和参数不确定性
IF 0.6 Q4 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL Pub Date : 2018-07-18 DOI: 10.1115/VVS2018-9339
Benjamin Schroeder, H. Silva, K. Smith
When making computational simulation predictions of multiphysics engineering systems, sources of uncertainty in the prediction need to be acknowledged and included in the analysis within the current paradigm of striving for simulation credibility. A thermal analysis of an aerospace geometry was performed at Sandia National Laboratories. For this analysis, a verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) workflow provided structure for the analysis, resulting in the quantification of significant uncertainty sources including spatial numerical error and material property parametric uncertainty. It was hypothesized that the parametric uncertainty and numerical errors were independent and separable for this application. This hypothesis was supported by performing uncertainty quantification (UQ) simulations at multiple mesh resolutions, while being limited by resources to minimize the number of medium and high resolution simulations. Based on this supported hypothesis, a prediction including parametric uncertainty and a systematic mesh bias is used to make a margin assessment that avoids unnecessary uncertainty obscuring the results and optimizes use of computing resources.
在对多物理工程系统进行计算模拟预测时,需要承认预测中的不确定性来源,并将其纳入当前努力提高模拟可信度的范式中的分析中。桑迪亚国家实验室对航空航天几何结构进行了热分析。对于该分析,验证、验证和不确定度量化(VVUQ)工作流程为分析提供了结构,从而量化了重要的不确定源,包括空间数值误差和材料特性参数不确定性。假设参数不确定性和数值误差对于该应用是独立和可分离的。这一假设得到了以多个网格分辨率进行不确定性量化(UQ)模拟的支持,同时受到资源限制,以最大限度地减少中分辨率和高分辨率模拟的数量。基于这一支持的假设,使用包括参数不确定性和系统网格偏差的预测来进行边际评估,避免不必要的不确定性模糊结果,并优化计算资源的使用。
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引用次数: 2
Models, Uncertainty, and the Sandia V&V Challenge Problem 模型、不确定性和桑迪亚V&V挑战问题
IF 0.6 Q4 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL Pub Date : 2018-07-18 DOI: 10.1115/VVS2018-9308
G. Hazelrigg, G. Klutke
The purpose of this paper is not to present new results; rather, it is to show that the current approach to model validation is not consistent with the accepted mathematics of probability theory. Specifically, we argue that the Sandia V&V Challenge Problem is ill-posed in that the answers sought do not, mathematically, exist. We apply our arguments to show the types of mistakes present in the papers presented in the Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 1,1 along with the challenge problem. Further, we argue that, when the problem is properly posed, both the applicable methodology and the solution techniques are easily drawn from the well-developed mathematics of probability and decision theory. The unfortunate aspect of the challenge problem as currently stated is that it leads to incorrect and inappropriate mathematical approaches that should be avoided and corrected in the current literature.
本文的目的不是提出新的结果;相反,它是要表明,目前的方法来模型验证是不符合公认的数学概率论。具体来说,我们认为桑迪亚V&V挑战问题是病态的,因为所寻求的答案在数学上不存在。我们应用我们的论点来显示在《验证、验证和不确定度量化杂志》第1卷、第1卷以及挑战问题上发表的论文中出现的错误类型。此外,我们认为,当问题被适当提出时,适用的方法和解决技术都很容易从概率论和决策理论的发达数学中得出。正如目前所述,挑战问题的不幸方面是,它导致了不正确和不适当的数学方法,这些方法应该在当前的文献中避免和纠正。
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引用次数: 2
Statistical Assessment and Validation of Experimental and Computational Ship Response in Irregular Waves 船舶在不规则波中的实验和计算响应的统计评估与验证
IF 0.6 Q4 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL Pub Date : 2018-06-01 DOI: 10.1115/1.4041372
M. Diez, R. Broglia, D. Durante, A. Olivieri, E. Campana, F. Stern
The objective of this work is to provide and use both experimental fluid dynamics (EFD) data and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results to validate a regular-wave uncertainty quantification (UQ) model of ship response in irregular waves, based on a set of stochastic regular waves with variable frequency. As a secondary objective, preliminary statistical studies are required to assess EFD and CFD irregular wave errors and uncertainties versus theoretical values and evaluate EFD and CFD resistance and motions uncertainties and, in the latter case, errors versus EFD values. UQ methods include analysis of the autocovariance matrix and block-bootstrap of time series values (primary variable). Additionally, the height (secondary variable) associated with the mean-crossing period is assessed by the bootstrap method. Errors and confidence intervals of statistical estimators are used to define validation criteria. The application is a two-degrees-of-freedom (heave and pitch) towed Delft catamaran with a length between perpendiculars equal to 3 m (scale factor equal to 33), sailing at Froude number equal to 0.425 in head waves at scaled sea state 5. Validation variables are x-force, heave and pitch motions, vertical acceleration of bridge, and vertical velocity of flight deck. Autocovariance and block-bootstrap methods for primary variables provide consistent and complementary results; the autocovariance is used to assess the uncertainty associated with expected values and standard deviations and is able to identify undesired self-repetition in the irregular wave signal; block-bootstrap methods are used to assess additional statistical estimators such as mode and quantiles. Secondary variables are used for an additional assessment of the quality of experimental and simulation data as they are generally more difficult to model and predict than primary variables. Finally, the regular wave UQ model provides a good approximation of the desired irregular wave statistics, with average errors smaller than 5% and validation uncertainties close to 10%.
本工作的目的是提供并使用实验流体动力学(EFD)数据和计算流体动力学(CFD)结果,基于一组可变频率的随机规则波,验证船舶在不规则波中响应的规则波不确定性量化(UQ)模型。作为次要目标,需要进行初步统计研究,以评估EFD和CFD不规则波误差和不确定性与理论值的关系,并评估EFD、CFD阻力和运动的不确定性,在后一种情况下,还需要评估误差与EFD值的关系。UQ方法包括自协方差矩阵的分析和时间序列值(主变量)的块自举。此外,通过bootstrap方法评估与平均交叉期相关的高度(次要变量)。统计估计量的误差和置信区间用于定义验证标准。该应用是一艘两自由度(升沉和纵摇)拖曳的代尔夫特双体船,垂线之间的长度等于3米(比例因子等于33),在比例海况5下,在头波中以等于0.425的弗劳德数航行。验证变量为x力、升沉和俯仰运动、桥梁的垂直加速度和飞行甲板的垂直速度。主变量的自协方差和块自举方法提供了一致和互补的结果;自协方差用于评估与期望值和标准偏差相关联的不确定性,并且能够识别不规则波信号中不期望的自重复;块自举方法用于评估额外的统计估计量,如模式和分位数。次要变量用于对实验和模拟数据的质量进行额外评估,因为它们通常比主要变量更难建模和预测。最后,规则波UQ模型提供了所需不规则波统计的良好近似,平均误差小于5%,验证不确定性接近10%。
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引用次数: 9
A General Methodology for Uncertainty Quantification in Engineering Analyses Using a Credible Probability Box 工程分析不确定性量化的通用方法
IF 0.6 Q4 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL Pub Date : 2018-06-01 DOI: 10.1115/1.4041490
M. E. Ewing, B. Liechty, D. L. Black
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is gaining in maturity and importance in engineering analysis. While historical engineering analysis and design methods have relied heavily on safety factors (SF) with built-in conservatism, modern approaches require detailed assessment of reliability to provide optimized and balanced designs. This paper presents methodologies that support the transition toward this type of approach. Fundamental concepts are described for UQ in general engineering analysis. These include consideration of the sources of uncertainty and their categorization. Of particular importance are the categorization of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and their separate propagation through an UQ analysis. This familiar concept is referred to here as a “two-dimensional” approach, and it provides for the assessment of both the probability of a predicted occurrence and the credibility in that prediction. Unique to the approach presented here is the adaptation of the concept of a bounding probability box to that of a credible probability box. This requires estimates for probability distributions related to all uncertainties both aleatory and epistemic. The propagation of these distributions through the uncertainty analysis provides for the assessment of probability related to the system response, along with a quantification of credibility in that prediction. Details of a generalized methodology for UQ in this framework are presented, and approaches for interpreting results are described. Illustrative examples are presented.
不确定性量化在工程分析中日益成熟和重要。虽然历史工程分析和设计方法在很大程度上依赖于具有内在保守性的安全系数(SF),但现代方法需要对可靠性进行详细评估,以提供优化和平衡的设计。本文介绍了支持向这种方法过渡的方法。介绍了通用工程分析中UQ的基本概念。其中包括考虑不确定性的来源及其分类。特别重要的是对述情性和认识性不确定性的分类,以及它们通过UQ分析的单独传播。这个熟悉的概念在这里被称为“二维”方法,它提供了对预测发生的概率和预测可信度的评估。这里提出的方法的独特之处在于,将边界概率框的概念改编为可信概率框。这需要对与所有不确定性相关的概率分布进行估计,包括推理和认识。这些分布通过不确定性分析的传播提供了与系统响应相关的概率评估,以及该预测可信度的量化。介绍了该框架中UQ的通用方法的细节,并描述了解释结果的方法。举例说明。
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引用次数: 9
A Methodology for Characterizing Representativeness Uncertainty in Performance Indicator Measurements of Power Generating Systems 发电系统性能指标测量中代表性不确定度的表征方法
IF 0.6 Q4 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL Pub Date : 2018-06-01 DOI: 10.1115/1.4041687
U. Otgonbaatar, E. Baglietto, Y. Caffari, N. Todreas, G. Lenci
In this work, a general methodology and innovative framework to characterize and quantify representativeness uncertainty of performance indicator measurements of power generation systems is proposed. The representativeness uncertainty refers to the difference between a measurement value of a performance indicator quantity and its reference true value. It arises from the inherent variability of the quantity being measured. The main objectives of the methodology are to characterize and reduce the representativeness uncertainty by adopting numerical simulation in combination with experimental data and to improve the physical description of the measurement. The methodology is applied to an industrial case study for demonstration. The case study involves a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of an orifice plate-based mass flow rate measurement, using a commercially available package. Using the insight obtained from the CFD simulation, the representativeness uncertainty in mass flow rate measurement is quantified and the associated random uncertainties are comprehensively accounted for. Both parametric and nonparametric implementations of the methodology are illustrated. The case study also illustrates how the methodology is used to quantitatively test the level of statistical significance of the CFD simulation result after accounting for the relevant uncertainties.
在这项工作中,提出了表征和量化发电系统性能指标测量的代表性不确定性的一般方法和创新框架。代表性不确定度是指绩效指标数量的测量值与其参考真值之间的差异。它源于被测量量的内在可变性。该方法的主要目标是通过结合实验数据采用数值模拟来表征和减少代表性不确定性,并改进测量的物理描述。将该方法应用于一个工业案例研究中进行论证。该案例研究涉及基于孔板的质量流量测量的计算流体动力学(CFD)模拟,使用市售软件包。利用CFD模拟得到的洞见,量化了质量流量测量中的代表性不确定性,综合考虑了相关的随机不确定性。说明了该方法的参数化和非参数化实现。案例研究还说明了如何使用该方法在考虑相关不确定性后定量测试CFD模拟结果的统计显著性水平。
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引用次数: 0
Exposing System and Model Disparity and Agreement Using Wavelets 用小波揭示系统和模型的差异和一致性
IF 0.6 Q4 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL Pub Date : 2018-06-01 DOI: 10.1115/1.4041265
Andrew Atkinson, R. Hill, J. Pignatiello, G. Vining, E. White, E. Chicken
Model verification and validation (V&V) remain a critical step in the simulation model development process. A model requires verification to ensure that it has been correctly transitioned from a conceptual form to a computerized form. A model also requires validation to substantiate the accurate representation of the system it is meant to simulate. Validation assessments are complex when the system and model both generate high-dimensional functional output. To handle this complexity, this paper reviews several wavelet-based approaches for assessing models of this type and introduces a new concept for highlighting the areas of contrast and congruity between system and model data. This concept identifies individual wavelet coefficients that correspond to the areas of discrepancy between the system and model.
模型验证和确认(V&V)仍然是仿真模型开发过程中的关键步骤。一个模型需要验证,以确保它已经从概念形式正确地转换为计算机形式。一个模型还需要验证,来证实它要模拟的系统的准确表示。当系统和模型都产生高维功能输出时,验证评估是复杂的。为了处理这种复杂性,本文回顾了几种基于小波的方法来评估这类模型,并引入了一个新概念来突出系统和模型数据之间的对比和一致性。这个概念识别了与系统和模型之间的差异区域相对应的各个小波系数。
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引用次数: 2
Operator-Based Uncertainty Quantification of Stochastic Fractional Partial Differential Equations 基于算子的随机分数阶偏微分方程的不确定性量化
IF 0.6 Q4 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL Pub Date : 2018-05-31 DOI: 10.1115/1.4046093
E. Kharazmi, Mohsen Zayernouri
Fractional calculus provides a rigorous mathematical framework to describe anomalous stochastic processes by generalizing the notion of classical differential equations to their fractional-order counterparts. By introducing the fractional orders as uncertain variables, we develop an operator-based uncertainty quantification framework in the context of stochastic fractional partial differential equations (SFPDEs), subject to additive random noise. We characterize different sources of uncertainty and then, propagate their associated randomness to the system response by employing a probabilistic collocation method (PCM). We develop a fast, stable, and convergent Petrov–Galerkin spectral method in the physical domain in order to formulate the forward solver in simulating each realization of random variables in the sampling procedure.
分数阶微积分通过将经典微分方程的概念推广到分数阶微分方程,为描述异常随机过程提供了一个严格的数学框架。通过引入分数阶作为不确定变量,我们在加性随机噪声的随机分数偏微分方程(SFPDE)的背景下开发了一个基于算子的不确定性量化框架。我们描述了不同的不确定性来源,然后通过使用概率配置方法(PCM)将其相关的随机性传播到系统响应。我们在物理域中开发了一种快速、稳定、收敛的Petrov–Galerkin谱方法,以便在模拟采样过程中随机变量的每一种实现时建立正向求解器。
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引用次数: 6
Experimental Calibration of a Biohydrogen Production Estimation Model 生物制氢估算模型的实验标定
IF 0.6 Q4 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL Pub Date : 2018-05-16 DOI: 10.1115/VVS2018-9341
F. Dias, J. Vargas, Sam Yang, V. Kava, W. Balmant, A. Mariano, J. Ordonez
A dynamic physics-based model developed for the prediction of biohydrogen production in a compact tubular photobioreactor (PBR) was calibrated experimentally. The spatial domain in the model was discretized with lumped control volumes and the principles of classical thermodynamics, mass, species, and heat transfer were combined to derive a system of ordinary differential equations, whose solution was the temperature and mass fraction distributions across the entire system. Two microalgae species, namely, Acutodesmus obliquus and Chlamydomonas reinhardtii strain cc125, were cultured in triplicate with different culture media via indirect biophotolysis. Measured biomass and hydrogen concentrations were then used to adjust the specific microalgae growth and hydrogen production rates in the model based on residual sum of squares (RSS) and the direct search method. Despite its simplicity, the presented volume element model was verified to well predict both hydrogen and biomass concentration over time. The microalgae growth rate for each species was determined as 2.16 μalga,0 s−1 and 0.91 μalga,0 s−1 for A. obliquus and C. reinhardtii strain cc125, respectively, where μalga,0 is the specific growth rate of Scenedesmus almeriensis for given temperature and irradiance. The adjusted maximum hydrogen production rates for the local nonmutant A. obliquus and for C. reinhardtii strain cc125 were 1.3 × 10−7 s−1 and 4.1 × 10−7 s−1. Consequently, these hydrogen production rates were 59 times and 19 times smaller, respectively, than that for the mutant C. reinhardtii strain cc849.
建立了一种基于动态物理的小型管状光生物反应器(PBR)产氢预测模型,并对其进行了实验标定。利用集总控制体积对模型的空间域进行离散化,结合经典热力学、质量、物质和传热原理,推导出一个常微分方程组,其解为整个系统的温度和质量分数分布。采用间接生物光解的方法,在不同培养基上三次培养斜尖针叶藻(Acutodesmus obliquus)和莱茵衣藻(Chlamydomonas reinhardtii)菌株cc125。然后利用测量的生物量和氢气浓度,基于残差平方和(RSS)和直接搜索法调整模型中特定微藻的生长和产氢率。尽管它很简单,但所提出的体积元模型被证明可以很好地预测氢和生物质浓度随时间的变化。各菌种的微藻生长速率分别为2.16 μalga,0 s−1和0.91 μalga,其中A. obliquus和C. reinhardtii菌株cc125的生长速率分别为0 s−1,其中μalga,0为给定温度和辐照度下almeriensis的比生长速率。调整后的最大产氢率对本地非突变型斜弧菌和莱茵哈蒂C.菌株cc125分别为1.3 × 10−7 s−1和4.1 × 10−7 s−1。因此,这些产氢率分别比突变菌株cc849低59倍和19倍。
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引用次数: 1
The Effects of Prosthesis Inertial Parameters on Inverse Dynamics: A Probabilistic Analysis. 假体惯性参数对逆动力学的影响:概率分析。
IF 0.6 Q4 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL Pub Date : 2017-09-01 Epub Date: 2017-10-31 DOI: 10.1115/1.4038175
Brecca M M Gaffney, Cory L Christiansen, Amanda M Murray, Casey A Myers, Peter J Laz, Bradley S Davidson

Joint kinetic measurement is a fundamental tool used to quantify compensatory movement patterns in participants with transtibial amputation (TTA). Joint kinetics are calculated through inverse dynamics (ID) and depend on segment kinematics, external forces, and both segment and prosthetic inertial parameters (PIPS); yet the individual influence of PIPs on ID is unknown. The objective of this investigation was to assess the importance of parameterizing PIPs when calculating ID using a probabilistic analysis. A series of Monte Carlo simulations were performed to assess the influence of uncertainty in PIPs on ID. Multivariate input distributions were generated from experimentally measured PIPs (foot/shank: mass, center of mass (COM), moment of inertia) of ten prostheses and output distributions were hip and knee joint kinetics. Confidence bounds (2.5-97.5%) and sensitivity of outputs to model input parameters were calculated throughout one gait cycle. Results demonstrated that PIPs had a larger influence on joint kinetics during the swing period than the stance period (e.g., maximum hip flexion/extension moment confidence bound size: stance = 5.6 N·m, swing: 11.4 N·m). Joint kinetics were most sensitive to shank mass during both the stance and swing periods. Accurate measurement of prosthesis shank mass is necessary to calculate joint kinetics with ID in participants with TTA with passive prostheses consisting of total contact carbon fiber sockets and dynamic elastic response feet during walking.

关节动力学测量是用于量化经胫骨截肢(TTA)患者代偿运动模式的基本工具。关节动力学通过逆动力学(ID)计算,依赖于节段运动学、外力以及节段和假体的惯性参数(PIPS);然而,pip对ID的个体影响尚不清楚。本研究的目的是评估参数化pip在使用概率分析计算ID时的重要性。进行了一系列蒙特卡罗模拟,以评估pip中不确定性对ID的影响。多元输入分布由实验测量的十个假体的pip(脚/柄:质量,质心(COM),惯性矩)产生,输出分布是髋关节和膝关节动力学。在一个步态周期内计算置信限(2.5-97.5%)和输出对模型输入参数的灵敏度。结果表明,pip对摆动期间关节动力学的影响大于站立期间(例如,髋部最大屈伸力矩置信界限大小:站立= 5.6 N·m,摆动:11.4 N·m)。在站立和摆动期间,关节动力学对小腿质量最敏感。对于使用由全接触碳纤维套和动态弹性响应足组成的被动假体的TTA参与者,需要精确测量假体柄质量来计算关节动力学和ID。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification
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