Variability in multiple independent input parameters makes it difficult to estimate the resultant variability in a system's overall response. The Propagation of Errors (PE) and Monte-Carlo (MC) techniques are two major methods to predict the variability of a system. However, the formalism of PE can lead to an inaccurate estimate for systems that have parameters varying over a wide range. For the latter, the results give a direct estimate of the variance of the response, but for complex systems with many parameters, the number of trials necessary to yield an accurate estimate can be sizeable to the point the technique becomes impractical. The effectiveness of a designed experiment (orthogonal array) methodology, as employed in Taguchi Tolerance Design (TD) method to estimate variability in complex systems is studied. We use a linear elastic 3-point bending beam model and a nonlinear extended finite elements crack growth model to test and compare the PE and MC methods with the TD method. Results from an MC estimate, using 10,000 trials, serve as a reference to verify the result in both cases. We find that the PE method works suboptimal for a coefficient of variation above 5% in the input variables. In addition, we find that the TD method works very well with moderately sized trials of designed experiment for both models. Our results demonstrate how the variability estimation methods perform in the deterministic domain of numerical simulations and can assist in designing physical tests by providing a guideline performance measure.
由于多个独立输入参数存在变异，因此很难估算系统整体响应的变异性。误差传播（PE）和蒙特卡洛（MC）技术是预测系统变异性的两种主要方法。然而，对于参数变化范围较大的系统，PE 的形式主义会导致估计结果不准确。对于后者，其结果可直接估算出响应的方差，但对于参数较多的复杂系统，要获得准确的估算结果，所需的试验次数可能会非常多，以至于该技术变得不切实际。我们研究了田口公差设计（TD）方法中采用的设计实验（正交阵列）方法在估计复杂系统变异性方面的有效性。我们使用线性弹性三点弯曲梁模型和非线性扩展有限元裂纹生长模型来测试和比较 PE 和 MC 方法与 TD 方法。使用 10,000 次试验得出的 MC 估计结果可作为验证两种方法结果的参考。我们发现，当输入变量的变异系数超过 5%时，PE 方法的效果并不理想。此外，我们还发现 TD 方法在两种模型中都能很好地使用中等规模的设计试验。我们的结果表明了变异性估计方法在数值模拟的确定性领域中的表现，并通过提供指导性的性能测量方法来帮助设计物理试验。
{"title":"Variability Estimation in a Non-Linear Crack Growth Simulation Model with Controlled Parameters Using Designed Experiments Testing","authors":"Seungju Yeoa, Paul Funkenbuscha, H. Askari","doi":"10.1115/1.4064053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4064053","url":null,"abstract":"Variability in multiple independent input parameters makes it difficult to estimate the resultant variability in a system's overall response. The Propagation of Errors (PE) and Monte-Carlo (MC) techniques are two major methods to predict the variability of a system. However, the formalism of PE can lead to an inaccurate estimate for systems that have parameters varying over a wide range. For the latter, the results give a direct estimate of the variance of the response, but for complex systems with many parameters, the number of trials necessary to yield an accurate estimate can be sizeable to the point the technique becomes impractical. The effectiveness of a designed experiment (orthogonal array) methodology, as employed in Taguchi Tolerance Design (TD) method to estimate variability in complex systems is studied. We use a linear elastic 3-point bending beam model and a nonlinear extended finite elements crack growth model to test and compare the PE and MC methods with the TD method. Results from an MC estimate, using 10,000 trials, serve as a reference to verify the result in both cases. We find that the PE method works suboptimal for a coefficient of variation above 5% in the input variables. In addition, we find that the TD method works very well with moderately sized trials of designed experiment for both models. Our results demonstrate how the variability estimation methods perform in the deterministic domain of numerical simulations and can assist in designing physical tests by providing a guideline performance measure.","PeriodicalId":52254,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2023-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139357521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Colmenares F., M. Abuhegazy, Y. Peet, S. Murman, S. Poroseva
Understanding spatial development of a turbulent mixing layer is essential for many engineering applications. However, the flow development is difficult to replicate in physical or numerical experiments. For this reason, the most attractive method for the mixing layer analysis is the direct numerical simulation (DNS), with the most control over the simulation inputs and free from modeling assumptions. However, the DNS cost often prevents conducting the sensitivity analysis of the simulation results to variations in the numerical procedure and thus, separating numerical and physical effects. In the current paper, effects of the computational domain dimensions on statistics collected from DNS of a spatially developing incompressible turbulent mixing layer are analyzed with the focus on determining the domain dimensions suitable for studying the flow asymptotic state. In the simulations, the mixing layer develops between two co-flowing laminar boundary layers formed on two sides of a sharp-ended splitter plate of a finite thickness with characteristics close to those of the un-tripped boundary layers in the experiments by J. H. Bell, R. D. Mehta, AIAA Journal, 28 (12), 2034 (1990). The simulations were conducted using the spectral-element code Nek5000.
了解湍流混合层的空间发展对许多工程应用至关重要。然而，在物理或数值实验中，流动的发展是难以复制的。由于这个原因，混合层分析最吸引人的方法是直接数值模拟(DNS)，它对模拟输入有最大的控制，并且不需要建模假设。然而，DNS成本常常妨碍对数值过程的变化进行模拟结果的敏感性分析，从而分离数值和物理效应。本文分析了计算域维数对空间发展不可压缩湍流混合层的DNS统计量的影响，重点讨论了适合研究流动渐近状态的域维数。在模拟中，混合层在有限厚度的尖头分流板的两侧形成的两个共流层流边界层之间发展，其特征与J. H. Bell, R. D. Mehta, AIAA学报，28(12)，2034(1990)的实验中未跳脱边界层的特征接近。用谱元代码Nek5000进行了模拟。
{"title":"Sensitivity Analysis of Direct Numerical Simulation of a Spatially Developing Turbulent Mixing Layer to the Domain Dimensions","authors":"J. Colmenares F., M. Abuhegazy, Y. Peet, S. Murman, S. Poroseva","doi":"10.1115/1.4062770","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4062770","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Understanding spatial development of a turbulent mixing layer is essential for many engineering applications. However, the flow development is difficult to replicate in physical or numerical experiments. For this reason, the most attractive method for the mixing layer analysis is the direct numerical simulation (DNS), with the most control over the simulation inputs and free from modeling assumptions. However, the DNS cost often prevents conducting the sensitivity analysis of the simulation results to variations in the numerical procedure and thus, separating numerical and physical effects. In the current paper, effects of the computational domain dimensions on statistics collected from DNS of a spatially developing incompressible turbulent mixing layer are analyzed with the focus on determining the domain dimensions suitable for studying the flow asymptotic state. In the simulations, the mixing layer develops between two co-flowing laminar boundary layers formed on two sides of a sharp-ended splitter plate of a finite thickness with characteristics close to those of the un-tripped boundary layers in the experiments by J. H. Bell, R. D. Mehta, AIAA Journal, 28 (12), 2034 (1990). The simulations were conducted using the spectral-element code Nek5000.","PeriodicalId":52254,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2023-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42671684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anton van Beek, A. Giuntoli, Nitin K. Hansoge, S. Keten, Wei Chen
While most calibration methods focus on inferring a set of model parameters that are unknown but assumed to be constant, many models have parameters that have a functional relation with the controllable input variables. Formulating a low-dimensional approximation of these calibration functions allows modelers to use low-fidelity models to explore phenomena at lengths and time scales unattainable with their high-fidelity sources. While functional calibration methods are available for low-dimensional problems (e.g., one to three unknown calibration functions), exploring high-dimensional spaces of unknown calibration functions (e.g., more than ten) is still a challenging task due to its computational cost and the risk for identifiability issues. To address this challenge, we introduce a semiparametric calibration method that uses an approximate Bayesian computation scheme to quantify the uncertainty in the unknown calibration functions and uses this insight to identify what functions can be replaced with low-dimensional approximations. Through a test problem and a coarse-grained model of an epoxy resin, we demonstrate that the introduced method enables the identification of a low-dimensional set of calibration functions with a limited compromise in calibration accuracy. The novelty of the presented method is the ability to synthesize domain knowledge from various sources (i.e., physical experiments, simulation models, and expert insight) to enable high-dimensional functional calibration without the need for prior knowledge on the class of unknown calibration functions.
{"title":"Semi-Parametric Functional Calibration Using Uncertainty Quantification Based Decision Support","authors":"Anton van Beek, A. Giuntoli, Nitin K. Hansoge, S. Keten, Wei Chen","doi":"10.1115/1.4062694","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4062694","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 While most calibration methods focus on inferring a set of model parameters that are unknown but assumed to be constant, many models have parameters that have a functional relation with the controllable input variables. Formulating a low-dimensional approximation of these calibration functions allows modelers to use low-fidelity models to explore phenomena at lengths and time scales unattainable with their high-fidelity sources. While functional calibration methods are available for low-dimensional problems (e.g., one to three unknown calibration functions), exploring high-dimensional spaces of unknown calibration functions (e.g., more than ten) is still a challenging task due to its computational cost and the risk for identifiability issues. To address this challenge, we introduce a semiparametric calibration method that uses an approximate Bayesian computation scheme to quantify the uncertainty in the unknown calibration functions and uses this insight to identify what functions can be replaced with low-dimensional approximations. Through a test problem and a coarse-grained model of an epoxy resin, we demonstrate that the introduced method enables the identification of a low-dimensional set of calibration functions with a limited compromise in calibration accuracy. The novelty of the presented method is the ability to synthesize domain knowledge from various sources (i.e., physical experiments, simulation models, and expert insight) to enable high-dimensional functional calibration without the need for prior knowledge on the class of unknown calibration functions.","PeriodicalId":52254,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42600694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This work performs systematic studies for code verification for turbulence modeling in our research CFD code SENSEI. Turbulence modeling verification cases including cross term sinusoidal manufactured solutions and a few exact solutions are used to justify the proper Spalart-Allmaras and Menter's SST turbulence modeling implementation of the SENSEI CFD code. The observed order of accuracy matches fairly well with the formal order for both the 2D/3D steady-state and 2D unsteady flows when using the cross term sinusoidal manufactured solutions. This work concludes that it is important to keep the spatial discretization error in a similar order of magnitude as the temporal error in order to avoid erroneous analysis when performing combined spatial and temporal order analysis. Since explicit time marching scheme typically requires smaller time step size compared to implicit time marching schemes due to stability constraints, multiple implicit schemes such as the Singly-Diagonally Implicit Runge-Kutta multi-stage scheme and three point backward scheme are used in our work to mitigate the stability constraints.
{"title":"Code Verification For The SENSEI CFD Code","authors":"Weicheng Xue, Hongyu Wang, Christopher J. Roy","doi":"10.1115/1.4062609","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4062609","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This work performs systematic studies for code verification for turbulence modeling in our research CFD code SENSEI. Turbulence modeling verification cases including cross term sinusoidal manufactured solutions and a few exact solutions are used to justify the proper Spalart-Allmaras and Menter's SST turbulence modeling implementation of the SENSEI CFD code. The observed order of accuracy matches fairly well with the formal order for both the 2D/3D steady-state and 2D unsteady flows when using the cross term sinusoidal manufactured solutions. This work concludes that it is important to keep the spatial discretization error in a similar order of magnitude as the temporal error in order to avoid erroneous analysis when performing combined spatial and temporal order analysis. Since explicit time marching scheme typically requires smaller time step size compared to implicit time marching schemes due to stability constraints, multiple implicit schemes such as the Singly-Diagonally Implicit Runge-Kutta multi-stage scheme and three point backward scheme are used in our work to mitigate the stability constraints.","PeriodicalId":52254,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47268661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Matthew R. Balcer, M. Aristizábal, Juan Sebastian Rincon Tabares, Arturo Montoya, David Restrepo, H. Millwater
A derivative-based Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) method called HYPAD-UQ that utilizes sensitivities from a computational model was developed to approximate the statistical moments and Sobol' indices of the model output. HYPercomplex Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) was used as a means to obtain accurate high-order partial derivatives from computational models such as finite element analyses. These sensitivities are used to construct a surrogate model of the output using a Taylor series expansion and subsequently used to estimate statistical moments (mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis) and Sobol' indices using algebraic expansions. The uncertainty in a transient linear heat transfer analysis was quantified with HYPAD-UQ using first-order through seventh-order partial derivatives with respect to seven random variables encompassing material properties, geometry, and boundary conditions. Random sampling of the analytical solution and the regression-based stochastic perturbation finite element method were also conducted to compare accuracy and computational cost. The results indicate that HYPAD-UQ has superior accuracy for the same computational effort compared to the regression-based stochastic perturbation finite element method. Sensitivities calculated with HYPAD can allow higher-order Taylor series expansions to be an effective and practical UQ method.
{"title":"HYPAD-UQ: A Derivative-based Uncertainty Quantification Method Using a Hypercomplex Finite Element Method","authors":"Matthew R. Balcer, M. Aristizábal, Juan Sebastian Rincon Tabares, Arturo Montoya, David Restrepo, H. Millwater","doi":"10.1115/1.4062459","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4062459","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 A derivative-based Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) method called HYPAD-UQ that utilizes sensitivities from a computational model was developed to approximate the statistical moments and Sobol' indices of the model output. HYPercomplex Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) was used as a means to obtain accurate high-order partial derivatives from computational models such as finite element analyses. These sensitivities are used to construct a surrogate model of the output using a Taylor series expansion and subsequently used to estimate statistical moments (mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis) and Sobol' indices using algebraic expansions. The uncertainty in a transient linear heat transfer analysis was quantified with HYPAD-UQ using first-order through seventh-order partial derivatives with respect to seven random variables encompassing material properties, geometry, and boundary conditions. Random sampling of the analytical solution and the regression-based stochastic perturbation finite element method were also conducted to compare accuracy and computational cost. The results indicate that HYPAD-UQ has superior accuracy for the same computational effort compared to the regression-based stochastic perturbation finite element method. Sensitivities calculated with HYPAD can allow higher-order Taylor series expansions to be an effective and practical UQ method.","PeriodicalId":52254,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49386200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
L. Liew, D. Read, May L. Martin, P. Bradley, J. Geaney
It is well documented that the microstructure and properties of electrodeposited films, such as LIGA Ni and its alloys, are highly sensitive to processing conditions hence the literature shows large discrepancies in mechanical properties, even for similar alloys. Given this expected material variability as well as the experimental challenges with small-scale mechanical testing, measurement uncertainties are needed for property values to be applied appropriately, and yet are uncommon in micro- and meso-scale tensile testing studies. In a separate paper we reported the elastic-plastic properties of 200 μm -thick freestanding films of LIGA-fabricated nanocrystalline Ni-10 %Fe and microcrystalline Ni-10 %Co, with specimen gauge widths ranging from 75 μm to 700 μm, and tensile tested at strain rates 0.001 s-1 and 1 s-1. The loads were applied by commercial miniature and benchtop load frames, and strain was measured by digital image correlation. In this paper we examine the measurement uncertainties in the ultimate tensile strength, apparent Young's modulus, 0.2 % offset yield strength, and strain hardening parameters. For several of these properties, the standard deviation cannot be interpreted as the statistical scatter because the measurement uncertainty was larger. Microplasticity affects the modulus measurement, thus we recommended measuring the modulus after cyclic loading. These measurement uncertainty issues might be relevant to similar works on small-scale tensile testing and might help the reader to interpret the discrepancies in literature values of mechanical properties for LIGA and electrodeposited films.
{"title":"Elastic-plastic Properties of Meso-scale Electrodeposited Liga Nickel Alloy Films: Analysis of Measurement Uncertainties","authors":"L. Liew, D. Read, May L. Martin, P. Bradley, J. Geaney","doi":"10.1115/1.4062106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4062106","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 It is well documented that the microstructure and properties of electrodeposited films, such as LIGA Ni and its alloys, are highly sensitive to processing conditions hence the literature shows large discrepancies in mechanical properties, even for similar alloys. Given this expected material variability as well as the experimental challenges with small-scale mechanical testing, measurement uncertainties are needed for property values to be applied appropriately, and yet are uncommon in micro- and meso-scale tensile testing studies. In a separate paper we reported the elastic-plastic properties of 200 μm -thick freestanding films of LIGA-fabricated nanocrystalline Ni-10 %Fe and microcrystalline Ni-10 %Co, with specimen gauge widths ranging from 75 μm to 700 μm, and tensile tested at strain rates 0.001 s-1 and 1 s-1. The loads were applied by commercial miniature and benchtop load frames, and strain was measured by digital image correlation. In this paper we examine the measurement uncertainties in the ultimate tensile strength, apparent Young's modulus, 0.2 % offset yield strength, and strain hardening parameters. For several of these properties, the standard deviation cannot be interpreted as the statistical scatter because the measurement uncertainty was larger. Microplasticity affects the modulus measurement, thus we recommended measuring the modulus after cyclic loading. These measurement uncertainty issues might be relevant to similar works on small-scale tensile testing and might help the reader to interpret the discrepancies in literature values of mechanical properties for LIGA and electrodeposited films.","PeriodicalId":52254,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45822778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tracking of the position and orientation of a moving object by a camera can be accomplished by attaching a 2D marker with a specific pattern on the object. Recently, we have developed a projection-based surgical navigation system that can accurately guide in real time the pre-operative plan of resection in orthopedic surgery, such as joint replacement or wide-resection of osteosarcoma (bone tumor). To this end, it is important to study the accuracy of registration and tracking due to various sources of errors, such as the printing resolution and quality of the 2D marker. In this study, we investigate and provide an analysis of error and uncertainty for real-time tracking using a 2D marker with a camera. Experiments and computational simulations were conducted to quantify the estimation of errors in position and orientation due to the printing error of 2D markers using a 600-dpi laser printer. In addition, a theory of uncertainty propagation in a form of congruence transformation was derived for such systems and is illustrated with experimental results.
{"title":"Experimental and Computational Study of Error and Uncertainty in Real-Time Camera-Based Tracking of a 2D Marker for Orthopedic Surgical Navigation","authors":"Guangyu He, A. Fakhari, F. Khan, I. Kao","doi":"10.1115/1.4062137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4062137","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Tracking of the position and orientation of a moving object by a camera can be accomplished by attaching a 2D marker with a specific pattern on the object. Recently, we have developed a projection-based surgical navigation system that can accurately guide in real time the pre-operative plan of resection in orthopedic surgery, such as joint replacement or wide-resection of osteosarcoma (bone tumor). To this end, it is important to study the accuracy of registration and tracking due to various sources of errors, such as the printing resolution and quality of the 2D marker. In this study, we investigate and provide an analysis of error and uncertainty for real-time tracking using a 2D marker with a camera. Experiments and computational simulations were conducted to quantify the estimation of errors in position and orientation due to the printing error of 2D markers using a 600-dpi laser printer. In addition, a theory of uncertainty propagation in a form of congruence transformation was derived for such systems and is illustrated with experimental results.","PeriodicalId":52254,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42969685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Campos, Andrés Elías Ajras, Lucas Guillermo Goytiño, M. Piovan
This paper is devoted to evaluating the quantification of uncertainty involved in the study of Aeolian vibrations of Optical Ground Wire (OPGW) cable systems installed on overhead power transmission lines. The Energy Balance Method (EBM) is widely used to estimate the severity of steady-state Aeolian vibrations. Although the EBM requires some experimental characterization of system parameters (as indicated by international Standards), it is necessary to mention that such a procedure is connected with uncertainties which makes it difficult for the proper homologation of the cable systems. In this article, the parametric probabilistic approach is employed to quantify the level of uncertainty associated with the EBM in the study of Aeolian vibrations of OPGW. The relevant parameters of the EBM (damper properties, cable self-damping, and the power imparted by the wind) are assumed as random variables whose distribution is deduced by means of the Maximum Entropy Principle. Then a Monte Carlo simulation is performed, and the input and output uncertainties are contrasted. Finally, a global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the Sobol' indices. Results indicate that parameters related to self-damping and damper are the most influential on uncertainty and output variability. In this sense, the present framework constitutes a powerful tool in the robust design of damper systems for OPGW cables.
{"title":"Uncertainties Propagation and Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Aeolian Vibration of OPGW Cables","authors":"D. Campos, Andrés Elías Ajras, Lucas Guillermo Goytiño, M. Piovan","doi":"10.1115/1.4056976","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4056976","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper is devoted to evaluating the quantification of uncertainty involved in the study of Aeolian vibrations of Optical Ground Wire (OPGW) cable systems installed on overhead power transmission lines. The Energy Balance Method (EBM) is widely used to estimate the severity of steady-state Aeolian vibrations. Although the EBM requires some experimental characterization of system parameters (as indicated by international Standards), it is necessary to mention that such a procedure is connected with uncertainties which makes it difficult for the proper homologation of the cable systems. In this article, the parametric probabilistic approach is employed to quantify the level of uncertainty associated with the EBM in the study of Aeolian vibrations of OPGW. The relevant parameters of the EBM (damper properties, cable self-damping, and the power imparted by the wind) are assumed as random variables whose distribution is deduced by means of the Maximum Entropy Principle. Then a Monte Carlo simulation is performed, and the input and output uncertainties are contrasted. Finally, a global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the Sobol' indices. Results indicate that parameters related to self-damping and damper are the most influential on uncertainty and output variability. In this sense, the present framework constitutes a powerful tool in the robust design of damper systems for OPGW cables.","PeriodicalId":52254,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2023-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45213501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Matthew C. Ledwith, R. Hill, L. Champagne, Edward D. White
Determining whether a computational model is valid for its intended use requires the rigorous assessment of agreement between observed system responses of the computational model and the corresponding real world system or process of interest. In this article, a new method for assessing the validity of computational models is proposed based upon the probability of agreement (PoA) approach. The proposed method quantifies the probability that observed simulation and system response differences are small enough to be considered acceptable, and hence the two systems can be used interchangeably. Rather than relying on Boolean-based statistical tests and procedures, the distance-based probability of agreement validation metric (PoAVM) assesses the similarity of system responses used to predict system behaviors by comparing the distributions of output behavior. The corresponding PoA plot serves as a useful tool for summarizing agreement transparently and directly while accounting for potentially complicated bias and variability structures. A general procedure for employing the proposed computational model validation method is provided which leverages bootstrapping to overcome the fact that in most situations where computational models are employed, one's ability to collect real world data is limited. The new method is demonstrated and contextualized through an illustrative application based upon empirical data from a transient-phase assembly line manufacturing process and a discussion on its desirability based upon an established validation framework.
{"title":"Probabilities of Agreement for Computational Model Validation","authors":"Matthew C. Ledwith, R. Hill, L. Champagne, Edward D. White","doi":"10.1115/1.4056862","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4056862","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Determining whether a computational model is valid for its intended use requires the rigorous assessment of agreement between observed system responses of the computational model and the corresponding real world system or process of interest. In this article, a new method for assessing the validity of computational models is proposed based upon the probability of agreement (PoA) approach. The proposed method quantifies the probability that observed simulation and system response differences are small enough to be considered acceptable, and hence the two systems can be used interchangeably. Rather than relying on Boolean-based statistical tests and procedures, the distance-based probability of agreement validation metric (PoAVM) assesses the similarity of system responses used to predict system behaviors by comparing the distributions of output behavior. The corresponding PoA plot serves as a useful tool for summarizing agreement transparently and directly while accounting for potentially complicated bias and variability structures. A general procedure for employing the proposed computational model validation method is provided which leverages bootstrapping to overcome the fact that in most situations where computational models are employed, one's ability to collect real world data is limited. The new method is demonstrated and contextualized through an illustrative application based upon empirical data from a transient-phase assembly line manufacturing process and a discussion on its desirability based upon an established validation framework.","PeriodicalId":52254,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2023-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49082811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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