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Decision making model for detecting infected people with COVID-19 COVID-19感染者检测决策模型
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/yjor221115009m
S. Mahmood
The detection of people that are infected with COVID-19 is critical issue due to the high variance of appearing the symptoms between them. Therefore, different medical tests are adopted to detect the patients, such as Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) and SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies. In order to produce a model for detecting the infected people, the decision-making techniques can be utilized. In this paper, the decision tree technique based Decisive Decision Tree (DDT) model is considered to propose an optimized decision-making approach for detecting the infected people with negative PCR test results using SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and Complete Blood Count (CBC) test. Moreover, the fever and cough symptoms have been adopted as well to improve the design of decision tree, in which the precision of decision is increased as well. The proposed DDT model provide three decision classes of Infected (I), Not Infected (NI), and Suspected (S) based on the considered parameters. The proposed approach is tested over different patients? samples in off and real-time simulation, and the obtained results show a satisfactory decision class accuracy ratio that varies from 95% to 100%.
新型冠状病毒感染症(COVID-19)感染者之间出现的症状差异很大,因此对其进行检测是一个关键问题。因此,采用不同的医学检测方法对患者进行检测,如聚合酶链反应(PCR)和SARS-CoV-2抗体。为了建立一个检测感染者的模型,可以利用决策技术。本文考虑基于决策树技术的决定性决策树(DDT)模型,提出了一种利用SARS-CoV-2抗体和全血细胞计数(CBC)检测PCR阴性感染者的优化决策方法。此外,还采用了发热和咳嗽症状来改进决策树的设计,提高了决策的精度。所提出的DDT模型根据所考虑的参数提供了感染(I)、未感染(NI)和怀疑(S)三种决策类别。建议的方法在不同的病人身上进行了测试。对样本进行了非实时仿真,得到的决策类正确率在95% ~ 100%之间,令人满意。
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引用次数: 0
Team-bounded DEA efficiency scores: The case of UEFA Champions League Players 球队边界DEA效率得分:欧冠球员的案例
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/yjor230615022i
Luka Ivanovic, S. Radovanović, G. Savić, Boris Delibasic, Milena Popovic
Each player puts in time and effort to achieve results during a game, which can contribute to the team?s overall score. However, the combined effort of the whole team is a hidden factor that impacts a player?s outcomes. With this in mind, the aim of this study is to improve the DEA methodology by considering team performance when calculating efficiency scores. In this study, we introduce a new way to estimate efficiency using data envelopment analysis, which takes into account how the team performs. To achieve this, we use a single mathematical model that limits the player?s efficiency score based on the team performance. This ensures that the efficiency score cannot be more than ? times the average team efficiency score. The results from applying this new model to the UEFA Champions League 2021/22 season indicate that inefficient teammates significantly impact efficiency scores. However, when the entire team performs well, any decrease in efficiency scores is not substantial. The key advantage of these new efficiency scores is that they help pinpoint weak links within each team and identify areas that need improvement to enhance individual efficiency. Consequently, coaches and managers can utilize this model to identify areas for team enhancement, as well as players to improve their performance.
每个球员在比赛中都投入了时间和精力来取得成绩,这对球队有贡献吗?S总分。然而,整个团队的共同努力是影响球员的一个隐藏因素。年代的结果。考虑到这一点,本研究的目的是通过在计算效率分数时考虑团队绩效来改进DEA方法。在本研究中,我们引入了一种使用数据包络分析来估计效率的新方法,该方法考虑了团队的表现。为了实现这一点,我们使用一个单一的数学模型来限制玩家?基于团队绩效的S效率评分。这就保证了效率得分不能大于?乘以平均团队效率得分。将该模型应用于2021/22赛季欧冠联赛的结果表明,效率低下的队友显著影响效率得分。然而,当整个团队表现良好时,效率得分的任何下降都不是实质性的。这些新的效率评分的关键优势在于,它们有助于确定每个团队中的薄弱环节,并确定需要改进的领域,以提高个人效率。因此,教练和经理可以利用这个模型来确定团队的改进领域,以及球员提高他们的表现。
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引用次数: 0
Entrepreneurs’ preferences towards online market research packages: A discrete choice analysis 企业家对网络市场调研包的偏好:一个离散选择分析
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/yjor230815026n
Ognjen Nikolic
Startups have become a buzzword in the last couple of years, and entrepreneurship became career path for a number of people in the world. With all the advances in education and government subsidizing all over the world, still, statistics shows only a small percentage of successful startups. Studies have shown that the one the leading reasons for startup failure is the misreading of market?s needs. The aim of this paper is to determine the approach to market research, knowledge of tools and methods, and preferences towards online market research tools of entrepreneurs by using Discrete Choice Analysis. The research gathered 187 valid responses from a panel of participants working on developing new products and business, using an online survey tool. In the paper it is shown that the most important attributes for entrepreneurs are the price of the market research tool, followed by the level of details in the report generated, with more in-depth analysis regarding segmentation, simulations, and Marginal Willingness to Pay in the further chapters. The results of the research imply the need for a market research business model optimized for those starting a new business, focused primarily on detailed reporting and analysis, with the pricing model adjusted to the lack of resources entrepreneurs face at the start of their ventures, which would help them better understand the market-fit at the beginning and raise the statistic of successful startups.
在过去的几年里,创业已经成为一个流行词,创业成为世界上许多人的职业道路。尽管世界各地在教育和政府补贴方面都取得了进步,但统计数据显示,成功的初创企业只占很小的比例。研究表明,创业失败的主要原因之一是对市场的误读。年代的需要。本文的目的是通过使用离散选择分析来确定市场研究的方法,工具和方法的知识,以及对企业家在线市场研究工具的偏好。这项研究通过一项在线调查工具,从一组致力于开发新产品和新业务的参与者那里收集了187份有效回复。本文表明,企业家最重要的属性是市场研究工具的价格,其次是生成的报告中的细节水平,并在进一步的章节中对细分,模拟和边际支付意愿进行更深入的分析。研究结果表明,有必要为初创企业优化市场研究商业模式,主要侧重于详细的报告和分析,并对定价模式进行调整,以适应企业家在创业之初面临的资源不足,这将有助于他们更好地了解市场契合度,并提高成功创业的统计数据。
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引用次数: 0
Metric on the space of systems behavior functions represented by fuzzy measures 用模糊测度表示的系统行为函数空间上的度量
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/yjor230315012b
V. Bocharnikov, S. Sveshnikov
G. Klir proposed to describe the behavior of complex systems using behavior functions (BFs) - invariant constraints on the set of system states. BFs are one of the most productive tools for studying the functioning of systems. To study systems, it is necessary to have a metric for measuring of the difference between two BFs. To describe BFs modern researchers do not use distributions other than probability or possibility. But these distributions can be considered as special cases of Sugeno fuzzy measures, the use of which greatly expands the possibilities in the study of systems. However, metrics to measure the difference between fuzzy measures have not been developed. Therefore, in this article, the authors proposed a new metric and an algorithm for its calculation for the case when BFs are described by Sugeno fuzzy measures. This metric is based on the Cartesian product of fuzzy measures and the use of our proposed concentration function. The metric makes it possible to compare the behavior of systems in the case of describing BFs by Sugeno fuzzy measures with different modalities, as well as to ensure the priority of taking into account the set of the most significant states of the system.
G. Klir提出用行为函数——系统状态集上的不变约束来描述复杂系统的行为。BFs是研究系统功能最有效的工具之一。为了研究系统,有必要有一个度量两个bf之间差异的度量。为了描述bf,现代研究人员不使用概率或可能性以外的分布。但这些分布可以看作是Sugeno模糊测度的特例,它的使用极大地扩展了系统研究的可能性。然而,度量模糊度量之间差异的度量还没有被开发出来。因此,在本文中,作者提出了一个新的度量和计算算法,当bf是由Sugeno模糊测度描述的情况下。这个度量是基于模糊度量的笛卡尔积和我们提出的浓度函数的使用。该度量使得在用不同模态的Sugeno模糊度量描述bf的情况下比较系统的行为成为可能,并确保考虑到系统最重要状态集的优先级。
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引用次数: 0
Numerical integration approximations to estimate the Weitzman overlapping measure: Weibull distributions 估计Weitzman重叠测度的数值积分近似:威布尔分布
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/yjor221215021e
Omar M. Eidous, Mervat Al-Hayja`a
This paper deals with the problem of estimating the overlapping (OVL) Weitzman measure (?) when two independent random variables ?? and ?? are given by two-parameter Weibull distribution. The measure ? has been studied in the literature in the case of two Weibull distributions under the assumption that the two shape parameters are equal. In this work, a general expression for the Weitzmans measure is provided under the Weibull distribution without using any assumptions about the distribution parameters. Some new estimators for ? are developed depending on three numerical integration rules known as trapezoidal, Simpson 1/3 and Simpson 3/8 rules. The performance of the proposed estimators were investigated and compared with some existing estimators via simulation technique and real data. The results demonstrated the superiority of the proposed estimators over the existing one in almost all considered cases.
本文研究了当两个独立随机变量?? ?时重叠(OVL) Weitzman测度的估计问题。和? ?由双参数威布尔分布给出。措施是什么?在假设两个形状参数相等的情况下,对两个威布尔分布进行了研究。本文给出了Weibull分布下Weitzmans测度的一般表达式,而不使用任何关于分布参数的假设。一些新的估计?是根据三种数值积分规则开发的,即梯形,辛普森1/3和辛普森3/8规则。通过仿真技术和实际数据,研究了所提估计器的性能,并与现有估计器进行了比较。结果表明,在几乎所有考虑的情况下,所提出的估计量都优于现有的估计量。
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引用次数: 0
Process analysis and optimal facility layout planning in manufacturing systems 制造系统的工艺分析和优化设施布局规划
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/yjor2105015033c
C. Ceylan, Hüseyin Başkurt, Yasin Erkan, Şeymanur Uğur
In this article, it is emphasized that the process analysis for companies is carried out by using the DISCO process mining program and the results are interpreted and developed. In the light of machine and worker occupancy information obtained as a result of process analysis, imbalances, if any, are detected. These imbalances are resolved by arranging job assignments. Another information that we obtain is the time elapsed until the processing of any workpiece on a machine is finished. This time consists of the time elapsed between the machines and the waiting time in the queue of the machine to be processed. The waiting time in the queue of the machine will be improved by adjusting the workload balance of the machines and the transportation times will be improved by creating the best plant layout suitable for the process. As a result, the facility layout of the factory was made considering the functional grouping. In the study, a layout is designed in accordance with the workflow of the products. With this newly designed plan, it has been determined that the products can be produced by covering 50% less transport distance. In addition, the workload imbalances of the machines and workers were corrected by changes in job assignments. This has reduced the cycle time of a product by eliminating bottlenecks at the factory.
本文强调利用DISCO过程挖掘程序对企业进行过程分析,并对分析结果进行解释和开发。根据过程分析获得的机器和工人占用信息,如果有不平衡,就会被检测出来。这些不平衡可以通过安排工作分配来解决。我们获得的另一个信息是机器上任何工件加工完成所经过的时间。这个时间包括机器之间经过的时间和待处理机器队列中的等待时间。通过调整机器的工作量平衡,机器的排队等待时间将得到改善,通过创建适合该工艺的最佳工厂布局,运输时间将得到改善。因此,工厂的设施布局考虑了功能分组。在研究中,根据产品的工作流程设计了一个布局。通过新设计的方案,确定产品可以减少50%的运输距离来生产。此外,机器和工人的工作量不平衡通过工作分配的变化得到纠正。通过消除工厂的瓶颈,这减少了产品的周期时间。
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引用次数: 0
Decision making in fuzzy closed loop dual channel supply chain 模糊闭环双通道供应链中的决策
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/yjor230115014m
A. Mondal, J. Kumar, J. Kumar
This paper discusses the optimal pricing and collecting decisions in a fuzzy environment of the three closed-loop dual-channel supply chain models where a manufacturer produces the original product from fresh materials and unfashionable products. The manufacturer sells the original products to the customers using direct and retail channels (forward dual channel). In the reverse channel, the manufacturer, third-party collector and retailer individually take responsibility for unfashionable products acquired from the market in the three models. Remanufacturing cost, product collecting cost and market demand are treated as fuzzy variables. The optimal decisions wholesale price, direct price, retail price and collection rate are derived using fuzzy set theory and game theory approach in the three decision models. Finally, numerical illustrations clarify the impact of the fuzzy degree parameters on the decision variables and the expected profits of the players. It is found that the manufacturer decision model is superior for receiving the maximum expected profits of the players and also being more convenient from the customer?s perspective.
本文讨论了模糊环境下三闭环双渠道供应链模型的最优定价和收集决策,其中制造商使用新鲜材料和过时产品生产原产品。制造商通过直销和零售渠道(forward双渠道)将原厂产品销售给客户。在逆向渠道中,制造商、第三方回收商和零售商分别对三种型号从市场上购买的不时尚产品承担责任。将再制造成本、产品回收成本和市场需求作为模糊变量处理。利用模糊集合理论和博弈论方法,分别推导出三种决策模型的最优批发价格、直接价格、零售价格和回收率决策。最后,通过数值举例说明了模糊度参数对决策变量和参与者预期利润的影响。研究发现,制造商决策模型在获得参与者最大期望利润的同时,也更方便客户。年代的视角。
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引用次数: 0
Neutrosophic MAGDM based on critic-EDAS strategy using geometric aggregation operator 基于几何聚集算子的临界edas策略的中性MAGDM
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/yjor221017016m
Rama Mallick, Surapati Pramanik, B. Giri
Nowadays career choosing is a very difficult job for many students. This paper primarily addresses the concerns of those students who face difficulty in choosing the right career option for themselves, using multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) methodologies based on CRITIC (Criteria Importance Through Inter criteria Correlation) and EDAS (Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution) strategies under the single-valued neutrosophic set (SVNS) environment. First, the CRITIC strategy is used to calculate the weights of the attributes and then these weights are used to develop EDAS strategy in the SVNS environment. Since the usage of the geometric operator CRITIC-EDAS has not before been documented in the literature, this study is distinctive. A realistic example of commerce students? career selection problem is discussed.
如今,职业选择对许多学生来说是一件非常困难的事情。本文采用基于critical (Criteria Importance Through Inter Criteria Correlation)和EDAS (Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution)策略的多属性群体决策(MAGDM)方法,在单值嗜中性集(SVNS)环境下,解决了大学生择业困难的问题。首先利用critical策略计算属性的权重,然后利用这些权重制定SVNS环境下的EDAS策略。由于几何算子critical - edas的使用在文献中没有记载,因此本研究是独特的。商科学生的现实例子?讨论了职业选择问题。
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引用次数: 1
A stochastic inventory model with price-sensitive demand, restricted shortage and promotional efforts 具有价格敏感需求、有限短缺和促销努力的随机库存模型
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/yjor220915010k
U. Khedlekar, Lalji Kumar, Mamta Keswani
This paper is attempt to develop a stochastic inventory model with quadratic price-sensitive demand. Objective function is developed by incorporating promotional efforts to boost the market demand, preservation technology to reduce the rate of deterioration, proportionate shortage time and partial backloggings. The proposed work is to generalise the stochastic demand with different probability distributions and their comparisons. The objective is to find the optimal price, optimal replenishment, and optimal preservation technology investment while optimizing the total profit per unit time. In the case of partial backlogging and lost sale, we deduced the optimal replenishment schedules for respective price and preservation technology cost. Also, we shown analytically and graphically that the total profit per unit time is a concave function with respect to per unit time, price, and preservation cost. The theoretical implications have been validated by useful results and numericals. Also, we examine the impact of various parameters for the best course of action. The conclusions drawn from the assessment might be useful for managerial purposes.
本文试图建立具有二次型价格敏感需求的随机库存模型。目标函数是通过结合促进市场需求的促销努力、降低变质率的保存技术、比例短缺时间和部分积压来开发的。提出的工作是推广不同概率分布的随机需求及其比较。目标是在优化单位时间总利润的同时,找到最优价格、最优补货和最优保鲜技术投资。在部分积压和销售损失的情况下,我们推导出了相应价格和保存技术成本的最优补货计划。此外,我们以分析和图形的方式表明,单位时间的总利润是单位时间、价格和保存成本的凹函数。理论意义已被有用的结果和数值验证。此外,我们还研究了各种参数对最佳行动方案的影响。从评估中得出的结论可能对管理目的有用。
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引用次数: 0
A matrix geometric solution of a multi-server queue with waiting servers and customers’ impatience under variant working vacation and vacation interruption 在不同休假和休假中断情况下,具有等待服务器和客户不耐烦的多服务器队列的矩阵几何解
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2298/yjor220315001z
Ines Ziad, Vijaya Laxmi, Girija Bhavani, A. Bouchentouf, Shakir Majid
This paper deals with a M/M/c queueing system with waiting servers, balking, reneging, and K-variant working vacations subjected to Bernoulli schedule vacation interruption. Whenever the system is emptied, the servers wait for a while before synchronously going on vacation during which services are offered with a lower rate. We obtain the steady-state probabilities of the system using the matrix-geometric method. In addition, we derive important performance measures of the queueing model. Moreover, we construct a cost model and apply a direct search method to get the optimum service rates during both working vacation and regular working periods at lowest cost. Finally, numerical results are provided.
本文研究了一个具有等待服务器、拒绝、违约和k变工作假期的M/M/c排队系统,该系统具有伯努利计划假期中断。每当清空系统时,服务器在同步休假之前等待一段时间,在此期间以较低的费率提供服务。利用矩阵几何方法得到了系统的稳态概率。此外,我们还推导了排队模型的重要性能度量。在此基础上,构建成本模型,采用直接搜索的方法,以最低的成本求出工作假期和正常工作期间的最优服务率。最后给出了数值结果。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Yugoslav Journal of Operations Research
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