Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2021.7.3.101
Stoyan Tanchev
The proportional income tax is popular in countries of Central and East Europe and 14 CEE countries adopted it with different tax rates from 1994 till 2008 year. But four of them have replaced it with the progressive tax yet. The main criticisms towards the proportional income tax is that it leads to an increase of the inequality after taxation. The article aims to evaluate the impact of the proportional income tax without non-taxable minimum on inequality in Bulgaria, measured by the Gini index. The relationship between the Gini index and the growth rates of GDP per capita, the gross average income and net average income was studied. The methods of Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and correlation were applied to determine the impact of proportional income tax on income inequality in Bulgaria. The research covers the period from 2008 till 2019. National statistical institute of Bulgaria data (12 observations) has been used. The empirical results confirm positive relationship between Gini index and the growth rates of GDP per capita, the gross average income and net average income in system of proportional income tax. Inequality in Bulgaria had increased by 22% after introducing the proportional income tax in 2008, the highest incomes have increased by 113% and the lowest only by 85%. The results of the study show that the increase of the gross average income and net average income leads to increase of the inequality measured with Gini index. Therefore, after taxation of incomes with proportional income tax the inequality does not decrease, but continues to increase. It may be inferred that the proportional taxation increase inequality in Bulgaria.
{"title":"How the proportional income taxation increases inequality in Bulgaria","authors":"Stoyan Tanchev","doi":"10.15826/jtr.2021.7.3.101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2021.7.3.101","url":null,"abstract":"The proportional income tax is popular in countries of Central and East Europe and 14 CEE countries adopted it with different tax rates from 1994 till 2008 year. But four of them have replaced it with the progressive tax yet. The main criticisms towards the proportional income tax is that it leads to an increase of the inequality after taxation. The article aims to evaluate the impact of the proportional income tax without non-taxable minimum on inequality in Bulgaria, measured by the Gini index. The relationship between the Gini index and the growth rates of GDP per capita, the gross average income and net average income was studied. The methods of Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and correlation were applied to determine the impact of proportional income tax on income inequality in Bulgaria. The research covers the period from 2008 till 2019. National statistical institute of Bulgaria data (12 observations) has been used. The empirical results confirm positive relationship between Gini index and the growth rates of GDP per capita, the gross average income and net average income in system of proportional income tax. Inequality in Bulgaria had increased by 22% after introducing the proportional income tax in 2008, the highest incomes have increased by 113% and the lowest only by 85%. The results of the study show that the increase of the gross average income and net average income leads to increase of the inequality measured with Gini index. Therefore, after taxation of incomes with proportional income tax the inequality does not decrease, but continues to increase. It may be inferred that the proportional taxation increase inequality in Bulgaria.","PeriodicalId":53924,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Tax Reform","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67258856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.15826/JTR.2021.7.1.089
M. Kakaulina
The COVID-19 pandemic has put a great strain on the Russian economy and budget revenue The study aims at furnishing an estimate of losses in personal income tax revenue in regional government budgets in 2020-2023 due to the COVID-19 pandemic In order to investigate the shortfall in tax revenues, three factors were studied: the amount of damage caused by the COVID-19 outbreak to the whole economic system;the sensitivity of the state revenue base to the crisis;the sensitivity of regional tax revenue to the revenue base The study was based on the annual reports of the Federal Tax Service of Russia, Rosstat data, Forecast of the Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation, and data from the "National action plan to ensure the recovery of employment and incomes of population, economic growth and long-term structural changes in the economy" It was found that recession will lead to a significant reduction in people's income over the given period As a result, personal income tax revenues will decrease The budget losses will reach 416 6 billion rubles by the end of the 2020 fiscal year This is equivalent to 0 4% of GDP and 9 7% of total income from personal income tax in an economic situation unmarred by the pandemic The largest fall in public revenue is expected in the regions which stand out in regard to personal income tax revenues per capita The research results confirm the initial hypothesis that the negative impact of the pandemic on personal income tax revenues depends on the share of income tax revenues of a particular region or municipality The findings can be used by the regional and municipal financial authorities for developing draft budgets for 2022 and the planning period of 2023-2024
{"title":"Projected shortfall in personal income tax revenues of regional governments in Russia due to the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"M. Kakaulina","doi":"10.15826/JTR.2021.7.1.089","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/JTR.2021.7.1.089","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic has put a great strain on the Russian economy and budget revenue The study aims at furnishing an estimate of losses in personal income tax revenue in regional government budgets in 2020-2023 due to the COVID-19 pandemic In order to investigate the shortfall in tax revenues, three factors were studied: the amount of damage caused by the COVID-19 outbreak to the whole economic system;the sensitivity of the state revenue base to the crisis;the sensitivity of regional tax revenue to the revenue base The study was based on the annual reports of the Federal Tax Service of Russia, Rosstat data, Forecast of the Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation, and data from the \"National action plan to ensure the recovery of employment and incomes of population, economic growth and long-term structural changes in the economy\" It was found that recession will lead to a significant reduction in people's income over the given period As a result, personal income tax revenues will decrease The budget losses will reach 416 6 billion rubles by the end of the 2020 fiscal year This is equivalent to 0 4% of GDP and 9 7% of total income from personal income tax in an economic situation unmarred by the pandemic The largest fall in public revenue is expected in the regions which stand out in regard to personal income tax revenues per capita The research results confirm the initial hypothesis that the negative impact of the pandemic on personal income tax revenues depends on the share of income tax revenues of a particular region or municipality The findings can be used by the regional and municipal financial authorities for developing draft budgets for 2022 and the planning period of 2023-2024","PeriodicalId":53924,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Tax Reform","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67258486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2021.7.3.102
G. Ganchev, I. Todorov
The objective of this article is to estimate the impact of three fiscal instruments (direct taxes, indirect taxes, and government expenditure) on Bulgaria’s economic growth. The study employs an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Eurostat quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the period 1999–2020. Four control variables (the shares of gross capital formation, household consumption, and exports in GDP as well as the economic growth in the euro area) are included in the model to account for the influence of non-fiscal factors on Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate. The empirical results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship between Bulgaria’s economic growth and the independent variables in the ARDL. In the short term, Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate is affected by its own past values and the previous values of the shares of direct tax revenue, exports, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue in GDP. In the long term, Bulgaria’s economic growth is influenced by its own previous values and the past values of the share of household consumption in GDP and the euro area’s real GDP growth rate. Fiscal instruments can be used to stabilize Bulgaria’s growth in the short run but they are neutral in the long run. The direct tax revenue, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue are highly effective and can be used as tools for invigorating and stabilizing Bulgaria’s economic growth in the short run. However, in the long term, the real GDP growth rate can be hastened only by encouraging domestic demand (final consumption expenditure of households) and promoting exports. This research cannot answer the question of whether flat income taxation stabilizes the economy or not, since it does not separate the impact of tax rate changes from the influence of tax base modifications.
{"title":"Taxation, government spending and economic growth: The case of Bulgaria","authors":"G. Ganchev, I. Todorov","doi":"10.15826/jtr.2021.7.3.102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2021.7.3.102","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of this article is to estimate the impact of three fiscal instruments (direct taxes, indirect taxes, and government expenditure) on Bulgaria’s economic growth. The study employs an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Eurostat quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the period 1999–2020. Four control variables (the shares of gross capital formation, household consumption, and exports in GDP as well as the economic growth in the euro area) are included in the model to account for the influence of non-fiscal factors on Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate. The empirical results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship between Bulgaria’s economic growth and the independent variables in the ARDL. In the short term, Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate is affected by its own past values and the previous values of the shares of direct tax revenue, exports, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue in GDP. In the long term, Bulgaria’s economic growth is influenced by its own previous values and the past values of the share of household consumption in GDP and the euro area’s real GDP growth rate. Fiscal instruments can be used to stabilize Bulgaria’s growth in the short run but they are neutral in the long run. The direct tax revenue, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue are highly effective and can be used as tools for invigorating and stabilizing Bulgaria’s economic growth in the short run. However, in the long term, the real GDP growth rate can be hastened only by encouraging domestic demand (final consumption expenditure of households) and promoting exports. This research cannot answer the question of whether flat income taxation stabilizes the economy or not, since it does not separate the impact of tax rate changes from the influence of tax base modifications.","PeriodicalId":53924,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Tax Reform","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67258553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.15826/JTR.2021.7.1.090
Stoyan Tanchev
The study analyzes the relationship of personal income tax and economic growth in the long and short runs to show which type of income tax (progressive or proportional) is more compatible with Bulgaria’s economic growth. The methods of Vector Error Correction and Correlation are applied to determine the long-run and short-run impacts of the two types of income tax. The research covers the period from the first quarter of 1999 to the first quarter of 2020. Eurostat data (85 observations) were used. The empirical research has been divided into two periods. The long-run and short-run relationships between economic growth and tax revenue from progressive income tax in Bulgaria have first been studied, followed by the relationship between economic growth and the tax revenue from proportional income tax. The research results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship, but not a short-run relationship, between personal income tax and economic growth. The results imply that the progressive income tax is more compatible with economic growth than proportional income tax in Bulgaria in the long run. In the short run, the progressive income tax and proportional income tax have not shown statistically significant relationships with economic growth. Therefore, a progressive income tax leads to greater economic growth than a proportional income tax. From a long-run equilibrium standpoint, it is advisable that Bulgaria switch from proportional to progressive income taxation. It may be inferred that progressive taxation is more appropriate for economic growth than proportional taxation. The results are in conformity with the theory of endogenic growth and reject the neoclassical theory.
{"title":"Long-run equilibrium between personal income tax and economic growth in Bulgaria","authors":"Stoyan Tanchev","doi":"10.15826/JTR.2021.7.1.090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/JTR.2021.7.1.090","url":null,"abstract":"The study analyzes the relationship of personal income tax and economic growth in the long and short runs to show which type of income tax (progressive or proportional) is more compatible with Bulgaria’s economic growth. The methods of Vector Error Correction and Correlation are applied to determine the long-run and short-run impacts of the two types of income tax. The research covers the period from the first quarter of 1999 to the first quarter of 2020. Eurostat data (85 observations) were used. The empirical research has been divided into two periods. The long-run and short-run relationships between economic growth and tax revenue from progressive income tax in Bulgaria have first been studied, followed by the relationship between economic growth and the tax revenue from proportional income tax. The research results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship, but not a short-run relationship, between personal income tax and economic growth. The results imply that the progressive income tax is more compatible with economic growth than proportional income tax in Bulgaria in the long run. In the short run, the progressive income tax and proportional income tax have not shown statistically significant relationships with economic growth. Therefore, a progressive income tax leads to greater economic growth than a proportional income tax. From a long-run equilibrium standpoint, it is advisable that Bulgaria switch from proportional to progressive income taxation. It may be inferred that progressive taxation is more appropriate for economic growth than proportional taxation. The results are in conformity with the theory of endogenic growth and reject the neoclassical theory.","PeriodicalId":53924,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Tax Reform","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67258595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2021.7.3.100
C. Omodero
Nigeria’s educational system does not receive sufficient finances and nearly every new administration proposes greater levels of borrowing on the belief that they would enhance the economy, particularly human capital. The most important fiscal tools utilized in the Nigerian political arena to support education are tax revenue collection, foreign borrowing, and its interest component. This study aims to examine the impact of these fiscal tools on educational development in Nigeria. We use the multiple regression analysis of the data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria, Federal Inland Revenue Service, and World Bank Economic Development Indicators. The statistics ranging from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The correlation data shows that education has a substantial positive association with foreign liabilities and taxation income at the 1% level, but the relationship with debt servicing (interest rate) is negatively significant at the 1% level. Foreign debt, on the other hand, shows a substantial positive association with education and tax income at the 1% level but has an insignificant negative correlation with interest rate. Tax income has a substantial negative association with interest rates, but it also has a positive relationship with education and foreign loans. The findings of this study show that foreign debt and interest rates have had little impact on Nigeria’s educational system. The study result met the a priori expectation that tax revenue should impact positively on the development of education in Nigeria. As a result, the research recommends the prudent use of tax revenues while opposing foreign borrowing for political campaigns.
{"title":"Tax revenue collection or foreign borrowing: what fiscal tools enhance the educational development in Nigeria?","authors":"C. Omodero","doi":"10.15826/jtr.2021.7.3.100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2021.7.3.100","url":null,"abstract":"Nigeria’s educational system does not receive sufficient finances and nearly every new administration proposes greater levels of borrowing on the belief that they would enhance the economy, particularly human capital. The most important fiscal tools utilized in the Nigerian political arena to support education are tax revenue collection, foreign borrowing, and its interest component. This study aims to examine the impact of these fiscal tools on educational development in Nigeria. We use the multiple regression analysis of the data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria, Federal Inland Revenue Service, and World Bank Economic Development Indicators. The statistics ranging from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The correlation data shows that education has a substantial positive association with foreign liabilities and taxation income at the 1% level, but the relationship with debt servicing (interest rate) is negatively significant at the 1% level. Foreign debt, on the other hand, shows a substantial positive association with education and tax income at the 1% level but has an insignificant negative correlation with interest rate. Tax income has a substantial negative association with interest rates, but it also has a positive relationship with education and foreign loans. The findings of this study show that foreign debt and interest rates have had little impact on Nigeria’s educational system. The study result met the a priori expectation that tax revenue should impact positively on the development of education in Nigeria. As a result, the research recommends the prudent use of tax revenues while opposing foreign borrowing for political campaigns.","PeriodicalId":53924,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Tax Reform","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67258776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.15826/JTR.2021.7.1.088
V. Gromov
The social problem of poverty can be mitigated by introduction of a personal tax-free allowance. In this paper the likely effects that a personal tax-free allowance will have on the Russian budget is investigated. It has been assumed that a tax-free allowance will hit regional budgets because they depend greatly on income tax revenue. The indicated effects were estimated by applying a personal tax-free allowance to the data on economic conditions in 2019. Rosstat data on population, poverty, wages and gross regional product and Federal Tax Service data on the number of taxpayers and personal income tax revenues were used. For the purpose of the paper, two scenarios were calculated. In the first scenario, a zero personal income tax rate is applied to wages below the minimum cost of living. We found that under this scenario the consolidated budget of Russia loses over 1 trillion rubles while regional tax revenues reduce by more than 10%. In the second scenario, citizens whose income is below the minimum cost of living are exempt from personal income tax. We found that under this scenario regional tax revenues would be reduced by 1-5%. In both cases the introduction of the personal tax-free allowance puts greater pressure on regions that critically depend on the personal income tax receipts. It was concluded that the negative effect of an introduction of a personal tax-free allowance would be greater, the greater the prevalence of low-income taxpayers in a region. Also considerable regional disparities create a risk that such tax reform will deepen regional inequality and be disruptive for the Russian budgetary system.
{"title":"Introduction of the personal tax-free allowance in Russia and its budget implications","authors":"V. Gromov","doi":"10.15826/JTR.2021.7.1.088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/JTR.2021.7.1.088","url":null,"abstract":"The social problem of poverty can be mitigated by introduction of a personal tax-free allowance. In this paper the likely effects that a personal tax-free allowance will have on the Russian budget is investigated. It has been assumed that a tax-free allowance will hit regional budgets because they depend greatly on income tax revenue. The indicated effects were estimated by applying a personal tax-free allowance to the data on economic conditions in 2019. Rosstat data on population, poverty, wages and gross regional product and Federal Tax Service data on the number of taxpayers and personal income tax revenues were used. For the purpose of the paper, two scenarios were calculated. In the first scenario, a zero personal income tax rate is applied to wages below the minimum cost of living. We found that under this scenario the consolidated budget of Russia loses over 1 trillion rubles while regional tax revenues reduce by more than 10%. In the second scenario, citizens whose income is below the minimum cost of living are exempt from personal income tax. We found that under this scenario regional tax revenues would be reduced by 1-5%. In both cases the introduction of the personal tax-free allowance puts greater pressure on regions that critically depend on the personal income tax receipts. It was concluded that the negative effect of an introduction of a personal tax-free allowance would be greater, the greater the prevalence of low-income taxpayers in a region. Also considerable regional disparities create a risk that such tax reform will deepen regional inequality and be disruptive for the Russian budgetary system.","PeriodicalId":53924,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Tax Reform","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67258886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-04DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2020.6.3.082
S. G. Belev, N. S. Moguchev, K. Vekerle
The purpose of this article is to evaluate the fiscal effects of changes in social contribution rates in Russia for the period 2010–2014, which was marked by significant changes in tax legislation. The consequences of these changes for both the budget system and the labor market still have not been thoroughly studied. As the empirical and theoretical research shows, taxation could influence the labor market in two ways: through the intensive and extensive margin. This study tests the hypothesis about the two kinds of effects of taxation for Russia by using the data of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. It is demonstrated that an increase in the social contribution rate causes a decline in labor participation both for women and men. Moreover, an increase in the social contribution rate causes a reduction in the net-of-tax wage level for women and men. The state has already exhausted the opportunities for raising social contributions and pushing the reforms further would mean jeopardizing budget revenues and fiscal sustainability. Generally, an increase in social contributions has had a negative impact on the government’s revenues from social contributions and the personal income tax. It can be concluded that in general, the fiscal effects of the reforms were negative rather than positive. We would recommend the government to reconsider the current social contribution rates. Since the labour market is highly sensitive, it is possible to raise tax revenue through other means, thus avoiding adverse effects on public welfare.
{"title":"Fiscal Effects of Labour Income Tax Changes in Russia","authors":"S. G. Belev, N. S. Moguchev, K. Vekerle","doi":"10.15826/jtr.2020.6.3.082","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2020.6.3.082","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this article is to evaluate the fiscal effects of changes in social contribution rates in Russia for the period 2010–2014, which was marked by significant changes in tax legislation. The consequences of these changes for both the budget system and the labor market still have not been thoroughly studied. As the empirical and theoretical research shows, taxation could influence the labor market in two ways: through the intensive and extensive margin. This study tests the hypothesis about the two kinds of effects of taxation for Russia by using the data of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. It is demonstrated that an increase in the social contribution rate causes a decline in labor participation both for women and men. Moreover, an increase in the social contribution rate causes a reduction in the net-of-tax wage level for women and men. The state has already exhausted the opportunities for raising social contributions and pushing the reforms further would mean jeopardizing budget revenues and fiscal sustainability. Generally, an increase in social contributions has had a negative impact on the government’s revenues from social contributions and the personal income tax. It can be concluded that in general, the fiscal effects of the reforms were negative rather than positive. We would recommend the government to reconsider the current social contribution rates. Since the labour market is highly sensitive, it is possible to raise tax revenue through other means, thus avoiding adverse effects on public welfare.","PeriodicalId":53924,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Tax Reform","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2020-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49206478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-04DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2020.6.3.083
V. Karpova, V. Tischenko, V. Ostapenko, Y. B. Ivanov
The aim of this study is to analyze the connection between anti-crisis fiscal measures adopted by EU governments in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and these countries’ GDP growth. The study relies on methods of statistical analysis, including cluster analysis, to examine the challenges of forecasting tax revenue collections during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is possible to make preliminary conclusions regarding the relationship between fiscal anti-crisis measures in EU countries and these countries’ GDP growth even in the absence of the actual data. The study has revealed variations in forecast GDP growth caused by a higher than usual degree of uncertainty. The best way to minimize such variations is to constantly monitor the situation and adjust the forecast estimates depending on the changes in the relevant factors. The variations in forecast estimates can also stem from adjustments for the changes in tax revenues of EU countries implementing fiscal anti-crisis measures. Most EU countries resorted to such instruments as deferral of certain tax payments, temporary tax breaks, reduction of tax rates, tax loss carryforwards, cancellation or reductions of social contributions. The European leaders in terms of anti-crisis fiscal measures are the Czech Republic and Ireland – these countries used four out of five instruments and were followed by Austria, Hungary and the UK, which used three instruments. We also analyzed the coefficient of tax elasticity for European countries and demonstrated that tax reliefs (tax preferences) influence the level of tax revenue. The hypothesis that there is an indirect connection between the anti-crisis fiscal measures and GDP growth was confirmed. It is shown that clusters of EU countries grouped depending on their anti-crisis fiscal measures do not coincide with the clusters of countries grouped depending on their GDP growth estimates. Thus, a tentative forecast can be made that the fiscal anti-crisis measures taken by EU countries will not have a direct impact on their GDP growth. For citation Karpova V.V., Tischenko V.F., Ostapenko V.N., Ivanov Yu.B. Anti-Crisis Fiscal Measures in the European Union during the COVID-19 Pandemic and their Impact on GDP. Journal of Tax Reform . 2020;6(3):225–243. DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2020.6.3.083. Article info Received September 1, 2020 ; Revised October 5, 2020 ; Accepted October 20, 2020
{"title":"Anti-Crisis Fiscal Measures in the European Union during the COVID-19 Pandemic and their Impact on GDP","authors":"V. Karpova, V. Tischenko, V. Ostapenko, Y. B. Ivanov","doi":"10.15826/jtr.2020.6.3.083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2020.6.3.083","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this study is to analyze the connection between anti-crisis fiscal measures adopted by EU governments in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and these countries’ GDP growth. The study relies on methods of statistical analysis, including cluster analysis, to examine the challenges of forecasting tax revenue collections during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is possible to make preliminary conclusions regarding the relationship between fiscal anti-crisis measures in EU countries and these countries’ GDP growth even in the absence of the actual data. The study has revealed variations in forecast GDP growth caused by a higher than usual degree of uncertainty. The best way to minimize such variations is to constantly monitor the situation and adjust the forecast estimates depending on the changes in the relevant factors. The variations in forecast estimates can also stem from adjustments for the changes in tax revenues of EU countries implementing fiscal anti-crisis measures. Most EU countries resorted to such instruments as deferral of certain tax payments, temporary tax breaks, reduction of tax rates, tax loss carryforwards, cancellation or reductions of social contributions. The European leaders in terms of anti-crisis fiscal measures are the Czech Republic and Ireland – these countries used four out of five instruments and were followed by Austria, Hungary and the UK, which used three instruments. We also analyzed the coefficient of tax elasticity for European countries and demonstrated that tax reliefs (tax preferences) influence the level of tax revenue. The hypothesis that there is an indirect connection between the anti-crisis fiscal measures and GDP growth was confirmed. It is shown that clusters of EU countries grouped depending on their anti-crisis fiscal measures do not coincide with the clusters of countries grouped depending on their GDP growth estimates. Thus, a tentative forecast can be made that the fiscal anti-crisis measures taken by EU countries will not have a direct impact on their GDP growth. For citation Karpova V.V., Tischenko V.F., Ostapenko V.N., Ivanov Yu.B. Anti-Crisis Fiscal Measures in the European Union during the COVID-19 Pandemic and their Impact on GDP. Journal of Tax Reform . 2020;6(3):225–243. DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2020.6.3.083. Article info Received September 1, 2020 ; Revised October 5, 2020 ; Accepted October 20, 2020","PeriodicalId":53924,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Tax Reform","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2020-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44405747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-04DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2020.6.3.084
I. Drapkin
The article discusses the effectiveness of tax incentives for regulation of the level of foreign direct investment inflows (FDI) and outflows in the economy. Theoretically, changes in tax levels should influence both the profitability of investment projects and companies’ choice of locations for their production units. At the same time, transfer pricing opportunities in the world economy may neutralize the effects of tax changes on the level of countries’ FDI inflows and outflows. The aim of the research is to study empirically the influence of tax levels in countries on bilateral FDI flows. Methodologically, this study relies on regression analysis. Two variables indicating the tax level of the economy are used: the share of total taxes on income, profits and capital gains and share of taxes and social contributions in total government revenues. The database includes observations over 71 recipients and 91 home countries in 2001–2016. The gravity approach is applied to construct the econometric model while the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method is used to derive unbiased estimates. The main results of the research are as follows. First, there is a negative relationship between the tax burden and level of FDI inflows to the country. Second, higher taxes lead to an increase in FDI outflows only in the countries with relatively low taxes, while in countries with relatively high taxes the opposite dependence is observed. Third, vertical (efficiency-seeking) FDI are much more sensitive to the level of taxes in the recipient country compared with horizontal (market-seeking) FDI. We have not found any evidence for the positive influence of tax differentials on bilateral FDI. The conclusion is made that tax regulation measures may be an efficient instrument for stimulating FDI inflows to the national economy. For citation Drapkin I.M. The Influence of Taxes on Inflows and Outflows of Foreign Direct Investment. Journal of Tax Reform . 2020;6(3):244–255. DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2020.6.3.084. Article info Received August 12, 2020 ; Revised September 1, 2020 ; Accepted October 22, 2020
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Pub Date : 2020-12-04DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2020.6.3.085
I. Todorov, K. Durova
Macroeconomic management of a small open economy in a currency board arrangement faces two serious problems: first, under a fixed exchange rate, fiscal policy is the only effective macroeconomic instrument for smoothing out the business cycle; second, the twin deficits phenomenon, if it exists, may jeopardize the stability of the currency board arrangement. This paper uses quarterly seasonally adjusted Eurostat data for the period of 1999–2019, the Hodrick–Prescott filter and a vector autoregression (VAR) to answer the three questions that are of utmost importance to Bulgarian policy-makers: first, is the discretionary fiscal policy of the Bulgarian government procyclical or countercyclical? Second, do the automatic stabilizers in the Bulgarian state budget function properly? Finally, is the twin deficits hypothesis valid for Bulgaria? Our findings imply that the fiscal discretion of the Bulgarian government is procyclical, while the automatic fiscal stabilizers do not work effectively. The first part of the twin deficits hypothesis (the causal link between the fiscal balance and the current account balance) is confirmed but the second part of the twin deficits hypothesis (the positive relationship between the fiscal balance and the current account balance) is rejected for Bulgaria. It may be inferred that both sides of the Bulgarian state budget (revenue and expenditure) need to be improved in order to increase the effectiveness of Bulgaria’s fiscal policy. Low budget deficits (not higher than 3% of GDP) are recommended for improving the current account balance and encouraging economic growth. For citation Todorov I., Durova K. The Fiscal Policy of Bulgaria from the Standpoints of the Business Cycle and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis. Journal of Tax Reform . 2020;6(3):256–269. DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2020.6.3.085. Article info Received October 2, 2020 ; Revised November 6, 2020 ; Accepted November 11, 2020
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