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Variability of Euphotic Zone Depth in the Arabian Sea Over the Period 1998–2023 1998-2023年阿拉伯海真光带深度的变化
IF 3.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1029/2025JC023204
Francis Shincy, R. Mani Murali, P. J. Vidya

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the spatial and temporal variability of euphotic zone depth (Zeu) across the Arabian Sea from 1998 to 2023, focusing on three sub-regions: the Northern Arabian Sea (NAS), South Eastern Arabian Sea (SEAS), and South Western Arabian Sea (SWAS), using satellite-derived data sets. The analysis reveals that Zeu variability occurs on interannual, intra-annual, and decadal timescales. Annual mean Zeu values across the basin ranges from 6 to 80 m, reflecting considerable spatial heterogeneity in water clarity. Regionally, NAS recorded Zeu values ranging from ∼10 to 62 m, SEAS from ∼10 to 74 m, and SWAS from ∼12 to 72 m. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis confirmed that interannual variability accounts for 21.57% of the total variance. Interannual variability is primarily modulated by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), followed by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly in the SEAS and SWAS regions. Zeu in the NAS showed a significant lagged response, with Principal Component (PC1) lagging Dipole Mode Index (DMI) and ENSO by approximately 10 and 8 months, respectively. A statistically significant positive trend in Zeu was observed across the basin and within all three sub-regions, with the NAS exhibiting the strongest increase. Seasonal trend analysis showed increasing Zeu trends across all seasons, with the NAS during the ON (October–November) season demonstrating the highest trend (0.47 m/year). Overall, this work offers the first detailed analysis of Zeu variability in the Arabian Sea using multi-sensor satellite data.

本研究利用卫星数据集,对1998 - 2023年阿拉伯海复光带深度(Zeu)的时空变化进行了综合评估,重点分析了阿拉伯海北部(NAS)、阿拉伯海东南部(SEAS)和阿拉伯海西南部(SWAS)三个子区域。分析表明,Zeu的变率存在年际、年内和年代际三个时间尺度。整个流域的年平均Zeu值在6 ~ 80 m之间,反映了水体清澈度的空间异质性。从区域上看,NAS记录的Zeu值在~ 10 ~ 62 m之间,SEAS在~ 10 ~ 74 m之间,SWAS在~ 12 ~ 72 m之间。经验正交函数(EOF)分析证实,年际变异占总方差的21.57%。年际变化主要由印度洋偶极子(IOD)调制,其次是El Niño-Southern涛动(ENSO),特别是在sea和SWAS区域。NAS中的Zeu表现出明显的滞后反应,其中主成分(PC1)滞后于偶极子模式指数(DMI)和ENSO分别约10个月和8个月。在整个流域和所有三个次区域中,Zeu呈统计学上显著的上升趋势,其中NAS增幅最大。季节趋势分析显示,各季节Zeu趋势均呈增加趋势,其中10 - 11月的NAS趋势最大(0.47 m/年)。总的来说,这项工作首次使用多传感器卫星数据对阿拉伯海的Zeu变异性进行了详细分析。
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引用次数: 0
Acoustic Observations Unveil Seasonal Fluctuations and Regulation of Zooplankton Biomass and Its Vertical Distribution at a Mid-Latitude Long-Term Ocean Observatory 声学观测揭示了中纬度长期海洋观测站浮游动物生物量及其垂直分布的季节波动和规律
IF 3.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1029/2024JC021987
L. Ibáñez-Tejero, R. Somavilla, L. Valdés, E. Marcos, A. Viloria, A. Lavín

Zooplanktonic organisms are considered a key link between different trophic levels. The ecosystem structure and dynamics are affected by changes in their population and phenology. In this work, the causes and timing of changes within the seasonal cycle of zooplankton biomass vertical distribution in oceanic waters of the Bay of Biscay were investigated. For this purpose, long-term oceanographic time-series from zooplankton nets and high-frequency Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler backscattering data, employed as a proxy for zooplankton biomass, were used. This combination enables the observation of the concurrence of a strong seasonality in zooplankton biomass and its daily oscillation tightly linked to phytoplankton stock and its vertical distribution in relation to water column stability and air–sea forcing. During the spring bloom, when food availability is guaranteed, an increase in zooplankton biomass is observed and it is concentrated at the ocean surface, with a reduction in its diel vertical migration. Later in the year, zooplankton biomass is concentrated above the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM), and the depth range that it occupied is increased or reduced as the DCM deepens or shoals.

浮游动物生物被认为是不同营养水平之间的关键环节。生态系统的结构和动态受其种群和物候变化的影响。本文研究了比斯开湾海域浮游动物生物量垂直分布季节周期变化的原因和时间。为此,使用了浮游动物网的长期海洋时间序列和高频声学多普勒洋流剖面仪的后向散射数据,作为浮游动物生物量的代表。这种结合使我们能够观察到浮游动物生物量的强烈季节性及其与浮游植物种群紧密相关的日振荡,以及与水柱稳定性和海气强迫相关的垂直分布。在春天的繁殖期,当食物供应得到保证时,浮游动物的生物量会增加,而且它们集中在海洋表面,而它们的垂直迁移会减少。在一年中晚些时候,浮游动物生物量集中在深叶绿素最大值(DCM)以上,并且它所占据的深度范围随着DCM的加深或变浅而增加或减少。
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引用次数: 0
Surfing Transport of Buoyant Objects Observed in the Nearshore 近岸观测到的浮力物体的冲浪运动
IF 3.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1029/2025JC022422
E. J. Rainville, Jim Thomson, Melissa Moulton, Morteza Derakhti

Free-drifting buoyant objects, including plastics, marine debris, and organisms, move with the wind, waves, and surface currents. These objects also surf on breaking waves; this process adds to the total transport of the objects and can control beaching. Observations of surfing transport are made using small free-drifting buoys called microSWIFTs. The drifters are deployed nearshore at the US Army Corps of Engineers Field Research Facility in Duck, NC, USA, as part of the During Nearshore Events Experiment in October 2021. Surfing events are observed in the drift trajectories of the buoys as “jumps” in the time series of cross-shore position. There are 3,172 surfing events observed, with a median jump amplitude of 8.3 m and a median duration of 2.5 s. These median values are 13% $%$ of a characteristic offshore wavelength and 32% $%$ of a characteristic offshore wave period, respectively. The median bulk jump speed (jump amplitude/jump duration) is 82% $%$ of the linear phase speed for waves in the corresponding jump depth. The buoys' trajectories are simulated using three models of increasing complexity: “Wind-Only,” “Wind and Waves,” and “Wind, Waves, and Surfing.” The surfing process is represented using a probabilistic parameterization. When surfing is included in the models, the terminal location of the modeled objects (on beach or offshore) is correctly predicted in 93% $%$ of cases compared to 76% $%$ and 84% $%$ for the “Wind-Only” and “Wind and Waves” models, respectively. Including surfing also significantly improves the accuracy of the time-to-beach and alongshore beaching location.

自由漂流的浮力物体,包括塑料、海洋垃圾和生物,会随着风、波浪和海流移动。这些物体也在破碎的波浪上冲浪;这个过程增加了物体的总运输,可以控制搁浅。冲浪运动的观测是用被称为microswift的小型自由漂流浮标进行的。作为2021年10月的近岸事件实验的一部分,这些漂浮物被部署在美国北卡罗来纳州达克市的美国陆军工程兵团野外研究设施的近岸。冲浪事件在浮标的漂移轨迹中被观察为跨岸位置时间序列中的“跳跃”。共观察到3172个冲浪事件,中位跳幅为8.3 m,中位持续时间为2.5 s。这些中位数分别为特征离岸波长的13%和特征离岸波周期的32%。在相应跳变深度的波中,中位体跳变速度(跳变幅度/跳变持续时间)为线性相速度的82%。浮标的轨迹是用三种越来越复杂的模型来模拟的:“只有风”、“风和浪”和“风、浪和冲浪”。冲浪过程用概率参数化表示。当冲浪被包含在模型中时,在93%的情况下,模型对象的终端位置(在海滩上或近海上)被正确预测,而“只有风”和“有风和有风”的情况分别为76%和84%的模型。包括冲浪也大大提高了到海滩的时间和沿岸海滩位置的准确性。
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引用次数: 0
Coastal Upwelling Enhances Carbon Sources in the Changjiang Plume-Impacted Shelf During Summer 夏季沿海上升流增强了长江羽状架碳源
IF 3.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1029/2025JC023358
Kai Cai, Kui Wang, Di Wu, Yingqi Wang, Dawei Xu

River plume-impacted shelf marginal seas exhibit strong carbon sequestration potential due to their high biological productivity. However, frequent coastal upwelling events complicate the carbon source-sink dynamics because of the competing effects on seawater partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2): the upwelling of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC)-rich deep waters initially elevate surface pCO2, while subsequent biological uptake lowers it. As a case study, we used a novel wave-driven profiler to obtain high-resolution vertical profiles in the Changjiang plume-impacted shelf area (CPS) and to investigate upwelling-induced variability in pCO2 and carbon source-sink dynamics. The observations were conducted near Gouqi Island, where coastal upwelling frequently occurs. Based on a pCO2 mass balance model, we found that biological processes (contributing 30.6% to pCO2 increase) and physical transport (contributing 21.2% to pCO2 decrease) jointly dominated hourly mixed layer pCO2 variability in the study area. Importantly, we found that αSBW (shelf bottom water fraction) served as a good quantitative proxy for upwelling intensity, with each 1% increase in αSBW associated with a 6-μatm increase in mixed layer. Given the significantly higher mean αSBW values during 20–22 August (34 ± 5%) than 28–30 August (11 ± 7%), we defined the former as the upwelling period and the latter as the post-upwelling period. The air-sea CO2 flux (FCO2 ${mathrm{F}}_{{text{CO}}_{2}}$) during the upwelling period (24.04 ± 16.24 mmol m−2 d−1) was significantly higher than post-upwelling period (1.25 ± 0.98 mmol m−2 d−1). These findings provide new mechanistic insights into how coastal upwelling regulates carbon source-sink dynamics in large river-dominated shelf seas and highlight its importance for improving predictions of carbon sequestration potential in marginal seas.

受河流羽流影响的陆架边缘海具有较高的生物生产力,因此具有很强的固碳潜力。然而,频繁的沿海上升流事件由于对海水二氧化碳分压(pCO2)的竞争效应而使碳源-汇动力学复杂化:富含溶解无机碳(DIC)的深水上升流最初提高了表层pCO2,而随后的生物吸收降低了它。以一种新型的波浪驱动剖面仪为例,研究了长江羽流影响陆架区(CPS)的高分辨率垂直剖面,并研究了上升流引起的二氧化碳分压变化和碳源汇动力学。观测在沟岐岛附近进行,这是沿海上升流频繁发生的地方。基于pCO2质量平衡模型,我们发现生物过程(贡献30.6%的pCO2增加)和物理运输(贡献21.2%的pCO2减少)共同主导了研究区混合层pCO2的小时变化。重要的是,我们发现αSBW(陆架底水分数)是上升流强度的一个很好的定量指标,αSBW每增加1%,混合层增加6 μatm。考虑到8月20-22日αSBW平均值(34±5%)明显高于8月28-30日(11±7%),我们将前者定义为上升流期,后者定义为后上升流期。海气CO2通量(fco2 ${ mathm {F}}_{{text{CO}}_{2}}$)在上升流期(24.04±16.24 mmol m−2 d−1)显著高于上升流期后(1.25±0.98 mmol m−2 d−1)。这些发现为沿海上升流如何调节大型河流主导的陆架海的碳源-汇动态提供了新的机制见解,并强调了其对改善边缘海碳封存潜力预测的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Annual Weather Patterns Drive Large Pulses of Saline Submarine Groundwater Discharge and Major Summer Inputs of Nutrients to the South Atlantic Bight 每年的天气模式驱动大脉冲盐海底地下水排放和主要夏季营养物输入到南大西洋湾
IF 3.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1029/2025JC022962
Jacob Vincent, Alicia M. Wilson, Willard S. Moore, Rachel K. Thomas, Angela N. Knapp, Susan Q. Lang, Samantha B. Joye, James L. Pinckney

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is a significant source of nutrients to continental shelf waters. Increasing evidence suggests that most of this flow is saline (∼seawater salinity) and occurs across broad continental shelves, making it challenging to observe. Using new, cost-effective heat-tracer methods and geochemical analyses of subseafloor saline groundwater, we found that offshore saline SGD delivers repeated pulses of nutrients to the overlying South Atlantic Bight (SAB) water column in the summer. Thermal time-series measurements were collected below the sandy seafloor 10–15 km offshore of Charleston, SC, during three consecutive summers. Up to seven pulses of saline SGD occurred each summer. Discharge velocities ranged from 1 to 8 cm day−1. Pulses of SGD coincided with upwelling-favorable winds related to annual shifts of the North Atlantic Subtropical High and with winds from storm activity. We observed spatial and temporal variability between SGD pulses from analogous sites 5–10 km apart. Cumulative summertime SGD in 2019 corresponded to 65%–70% of the radium-based estimates of SGD offshore of South Carolina and was similar in magnitude to the input from regional river discharge. Thermal and geochemical analyses indicate two-way seawater-groundwater exchange across the seafloor, reflecting infiltration of seawater into the seafloor and SGD to overlying seawater. Geochemical analyses confirmed high nutrient concentrations in SGD compared to the overlying water column and river water. The δ15N of total dissolved nitrogen and δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon in groundwater suggest significant contributions from mineralized organic matter with a geochemical composition distinct from overlying seawater.

海底地下水排放(SGD)是大陆架水域的重要营养来源。越来越多的证据表明,这种流动大部分是含盐的(海水盐度),并且发生在广阔的大陆架上,因此很难观察到。利用新的、经济有效的热示踪方法和海底含盐地下水的地球化学分析,我们发现海上含盐SGD在夏季向上覆的南大西洋湾(SAB)水柱提供重复的营养脉冲。连续三个夏天,在南卡罗来纳州查尔斯顿离岸10-15公里的沙质海底下收集了热时序测量数据。每年夏天发生多达七次盐水SGD脉冲。放电速度范围为1至8厘米天−1。SGD脉冲与北大西洋副热带高压年移引起的有利上升风和风暴活动引起的风相吻合。我们观测了来自相距5-10 km的类似站点的SGD脉冲的时空变化。2019年夏季累计SGD相当于南卡罗来纳州近海以镭为基础的SGD估计的65%-70%,其量级与区域河流排放的输入相似。热分析和地球化学分析表明,海底存在双向的海水-地下水交换,反映了海水向海底的渗透以及SGD向上覆海水的渗透。地球化学分析证实,与上覆水柱和河水相比,SGD中的营养物质浓度较高。地下水中溶解态总氮的δ15N和溶解态无机碳的δ13C表明矿化有机质对地下水的贡献很大,其地球化学组成与上覆海水不同。
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引用次数: 0
Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Pacific South Equatorial Countercurrent Based on Argo Profiles 基于Argo剖面的太平洋南赤道逆流的季节和年际变化
IF 3.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1029/2025JC023053
Qiru Wu, Lina Yang, Peng Liang

The Pacific South Equatorial Countercurrent (SECC) is a crucial but poorly characterized component of the equatorial current system. Here, we investigate its seasonal and interannual variability using Argo-derived absolute geostrophic currents. During boreal spring, the SECC attains its widest meridional (5°S–13°S) but narrowest zonal (150°E−170°W) extent, with deepest penetration of over 300 m and a maximum transport of 12.8 Sv. In contrast, the SECC in summer weakens substantially as it shoals to depths less than 150 m, resulting in a transport of no more than 6.5 Sv. By autumn, the SECC extends eastward, reaching a peak zonal range (150°E−140°W). Subsequently, its western branch strengthens and deepens, while the eastern part retreats. These seasonal shifts are closely linked to the first-mode baroclinic Rossby waves forced by remote wind stress curl anomalies, particularly over 180°–140°W. Contrasting responses are also observed during El Niño and La Niña events. The SECC expands horizontally but contracts vertically during El Niño, with positive velocity anomalies progressing from north to south; and vice versa during La Niña. Correspondingly, the SECC transport shows little difference between El Niño and La Niña during the developing phases, but by summer, during its decaying phase, the El Niño transport reaches nearly twice that of La Niña. Sensitivity experiments show that the wind stress curl anomalies east of 140°W primarily control the SECC on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) timescales between 180° and 140°W, while anomalies over 180°–140°W govern the SECC west of 180°.

太平洋南赤道逆流(SECC)是赤道流系统的一个重要组成部分,但其特征却很差。在这里,我们使用argo衍生的绝对地转流来研究它的季节和年际变化。在北方春季,SECC经向最宽(5°S - 13°S),纬向最窄(150°E - 170°W),最深穿透超过300 m,最大输送量为12.8 Sv。相比之下,夏季SECC在深度小于150米时明显减弱,导致输送量不超过6.5 Sv。到了秋季,SECC向东延伸,达到一个纬向范围的峰值(东经150°-西经140°)。随后,其西部分支加强深化,东部分支撤退。这些季节变化与第一模斜压罗斯比波密切相关,这种斜压罗斯比波是由遥远的风应力旋度异常造成的,特别是在180°-140°W以上。在El Niño和La Niña事件期间也观察到不同的响应。El Niño期间,SECC水平扩张,垂直收缩,速度异常由北向南推进;在La Niña期间反之亦然。相应的,El Niño和La Niña在发育阶段的SECC输运量差异不大,但到了夏季,El Niño在衰减阶段的输运量几乎是La Niña的两倍。灵敏度实验表明,在El Niño-Southern涛动(ENSO)时间尺度上,180°~ 140°W以东的风应力旋度异常主要控制SECC, 180°~ 140°W以上的风应力旋度异常主要控制180°以西的SECC。
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引用次数: 0
Warm Eddy Effects on the Refraction of Diurnal Internal Tides in the Northwestern Pacific From PIES Observations 从pie观测看暖涡对西北太平洋日内潮折射的影响
IF 3.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1029/2025JC023037
Kang-Nyeong Lee, Jae-Hun Park, Chanhyung Jeon, Hong Sik Min, ChaeYeon Lee, Sujin Park, Xiao-Hua Zhu, Chuanzheng Zhang, Zhongxiang Zhao

A tidal model based on altimeter observations reveals that first-mode diurnal internal tides (DITs) propagate approximately 2,100 km eastward from the Luzon Strait (LS) into the Pacific Ocean. As they radiate over long distances, the DITs refract equatorward due to the beta effect. In this study, we utilize in situ round-trip acoustic echo time measurements between the seafloor and the sea surface, obtained from an array of 10 pressure-recording inverted echo sounders (PIES), to investigate the variability of DITs in the eastern Philippine Sea (EPS). The observations conducted over 1-year and 1.5-year periods during 2020–2021 reveal a clear weakening of DIT amplitudes in summer, in contrast to the barotropic diurnal tides, which show maximum spring tide amplitudes at the solstices and minimum amplitudes at the equinoxes. The observed seasonal variation in DIT energy flux shows a significant correlation with the relative vorticity averaged over regions of energetic warm eddies. Ray-tracing using HYCOM ocean model outputs indicates that the warm eddies in the upstream region of the ray path during summer (July to September) enhance the equatorward refraction of DITs. This study suggests that the superposition of the K1 and P1 constituents induces a pronounced semi-annual cycle in the DITs, even over considerable propagation distances. In addition, warm eddies exert a substantial influence on the DIT propagation path. Our results imply that the pronounced temporal variability of DITs should be considered to improve the parameterization of internal-wave-induced ocean mixing in oceanic and climate models.

基于高度计观测的潮汐模式显示,第一模日内潮(DITs)从吕宋海峡向东传播约2,100公里,进入太平洋。当它们长距离辐射时,由于β效应,dit向赤道方向折射。在这项研究中,我们利用10个压力记录反向回声测深仪(pie)阵列在海底和海面之间的原位往返声学回波时间测量来研究菲律宾海东部(EPS) dit的变异性。在2020-2021年期间进行的1年和1.5年的观测显示,夏季DIT振幅明显减弱,与正压日潮相反,春潮振幅在至点最大,在春分最小。观测到的DIT能量通量的季节变化与高能暖涡区平均相对涡度有显著的相关性。利用HYCOM海洋模式输出的射线追踪结果表明,夏季(7 - 9月)光线路径上游区域的暖涡增强了dit的赤道折射。该研究表明,K1和P1成分的叠加在dit中诱导了一个明显的半年周期,即使在相当长的传播距离上也是如此。此外,暖涡对DIT的传播路径也有重要影响。我们的研究结果表明,在海洋和气候模式中,应考虑DITs的显著时间变异性,以改进内波引起的海洋混合的参数化。
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引用次数: 0
Unusual Seasonal Variability of Submesoscale Dynamics in the Arabian Sea 阿拉伯海亚中尺度动力的异常季节变化
IF 3.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1029/2025JC022776
Chaoliang Li, Peng Zhan

Submesoscale processes in the ocean typically peak in winter, driven by mixed-layer instability and intensified atmospheric forcing. However, coastal upwelling regions can deviate from this paradigm due to region-specific dynamics. Based on validated high-resolution simulations, we investigate the seasonal and regional variability of submesoscale activity in the Arabian Sea. Our results reveal that the western Arabian Sea exhibits a pronounced summer peak in submesoscale activity, primarily associated with wind-driven upwelling, enhanced frontogenesis, and mixed-layer baroclinic instability. Although earlier studies have reported intensification of submesoscale processes in coastal upwelling regions, detailed dynamical interpretations remain limited. Our work advances this understanding by explicitly diagnosing the regional physical mechanisms driving submesoscale variability under monsoon-influenced upwelling system. This regional contrast becomes more evident when considering the broader basin. In the northern open ocean, submesoscale processes exhibit the canonical winter-intensified pattern, whereas in the eastern Arabian Sea near the Maldives, they display a distinct bimodal structure with both summer and winter peaks. These findings highlight the importance of adopting region-specific frameworks to interpret submesoscale seasonality, moving beyond the winter-intensified paradigm dominant in open-ocean settings. Our results provide novel insights into how coastal and open-ocean submesoscale dynamics coexist in the Arabian Sea, with implications for seasonally varying energy cascades, vertical heat and nutrient fluxes, and air-sea exchange in the upper ocean.

在混合层不稳定和大气强迫增强的驱动下,海洋的亚中尺度过程通常在冬季达到峰值。然而,沿海上升流区域可能由于区域特定的动态而偏离这一范式。基于有效的高分辨率模拟,我们研究了阿拉伯海亚中尺度活动的季节和区域变化。我们的研究结果表明,阿拉伯海西部的亚中尺度活动在夏季表现出明显的高峰,主要与风驱动的上升流、锋生增强和混合层斜压不稳定有关。虽然早期的研究报道了沿海上升流地区亚中尺度过程的加剧,但详细的动力学解释仍然有限。我们的工作通过明确诊断在季风影响的上升流系统下驱动亚中尺度变率的区域物理机制,推进了这一认识。当考虑到更广泛的盆地时,这种区域对比变得更加明显。在北部开阔海域,亚中尺度过程表现出典型的冬季-强化模式,而在靠近马尔代夫的阿拉伯海东部,亚中尺度过程表现出明显的夏季和冬季高峰双峰结构。这些发现强调了采用特定区域框架来解释亚中尺度季节性的重要性,超越了在公海环境中占主导地位的冬季加剧范式。我们的研究结果为阿拉伯海沿海和公海亚中尺度动力学如何共存提供了新的见解,并对季节性变化的能量级联、垂直热量和营养通量以及上层海洋的海气交换具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Identifying Sensitive Areas for Targeted Observations to Improve Indian Ocean Dipole Predictions Using a Coupled CNOP Approach 利用耦合CNOP方法确定目标观测的敏感区域以改进印度洋偶极子预测
IF 3.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1029/2025JC023420
Rong Feng, Wansuo Duan, Junya Hu

This study employs the coupled conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (C-CNOP) method, which incorporates initial coupling uncertainties, to identify sensitive areas of targeted observations for positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Results show that the initial errors most likely to yield large prediction uncertainties of IOD events are mainly concentrated in sea temperatures near the thermocline in the eastern Indian Ocean (IO_Temp: 70–110 m depth, 5°S–5°N, 85°E−105°E) and western Pacific (PO_Temp: 120–160 m depth, 5°S–5°N, 130°E−150°E), as well as zonal winds (UWind), exhibiting an east–west dipole pattern over the tropical Indo-western Pacific. Through sensitivity experiments—designed to assess the impact of initial uncertainties in different areas on IOD predictions while bypassing the assimilation process and avoiding initial shock effects—we find that prediction uncertainties are more sensitive to initial errors in the UWind area than in the IO_Temp and PO_Temp areas, demonstrating a stronger impact on forecast skill, particularly in winter and summer. Further analysis demonstrated that the IO_Temp & PO_UWind coupled area involving the eastern Indian Ocean subsurface temperature and western Pacific zonal winds, exhibits greater sensitivity than the UWind area alone, emerging as the most sensitive area of positive IOD events. This key area highlights both the Pacific's remote influence and the crucial role of local ocean on IOD development. These results underscore the critical role of coupled initialization in IOD predictability, offering a theoretical basis for advancing coupled data assimilation.

本研究采用结合初始耦合不确定性的耦合条件非线性最优摄动(C-CNOP)方法,确定了印度洋偶极子(IOD)正事件的目标观测敏感区域。结果表明,最可能导致IOD事件预测不确定性的初始误差主要集中在东印度洋(IO_Temp: 70 ~ 110 m深度,5°S-5°N, 85°E ~ 105°E)和西太平洋(PO_Temp: 120 ~ 160 m深度,5°S-5°N, 130°E ~ 150°E)的温跃层附近的海温以及纬向风(UWind),在热带印度洋-西太平洋上空表现出东西偶极子型。通过敏感性实验(旨在评估不同地区的初始不确定性对IOD预测的影响,同时绕过同化过程,避免初始冲击效应),我们发现,与IO_Temp和PO_Temp地区相比,UWind地区的预测不确定性对初始误差更敏感,对预测技能的影响更大,尤其是在冬季和夏季。进一步分析表明,东印度洋次表层温度和西太平洋纬向风的IO_Temp &; PO_UWind耦合区比单独的UWind区更敏感,是IOD正事件的最敏感区。这一关键领域突出了太平洋的遥远影响和当地海洋对IOD发展的关键作用。这些结果强调了耦合初始化在IOD可预测性中的关键作用,为推进耦合数据同化提供了理论基础。
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引用次数: 0
Sensitivity of Dynamical Downscaling in the Northern Adriatic Sea 北亚得里亚海动力降尺度的敏感性
IF 3.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1029/2025JC022921
Renata Tatsch Eidt, Giorgia Verri, Vladimir Santos da Costa, Anna Katavouta, Antonio Navarra

This study evaluates the performance of dynamical downscaling in the Northern Adriatic Sea, focusing on eddy kinetic energy spectra and dense water formation. Using the perfect model framework, a high-resolution (2 km) reference simulation of the entire Adriatic Sea serves as the benchmark for a series of one-way nesting downscaling experiments reaching the same horizontal resolution in the Northern Adriatic. Results show that a downscaling ratio of 1:3 effectively reproduces the local energy budget and multiscale features. However, the absence of feedback from small to large scales limits the downscaling performance. This limitation is evident in dense water formation, which is controlled by the interplay between local and remote drivers in the Northern Adriatic Sea. When local drivers, such as buoyancy fluxes, dominate, the dense water formation process is well reproduced. In contrast, when remote influences, particularly the inflow of salty Levantine Intermediate Water through the Otranto Strait, are not properly resolved by the parent model, reproducibility of dense water formation deteriorates. Our experiments indicate that a 2 km horizontal resolution effectively captures cross-scale interactions at the strait, while a 6 km resolution is insufficient. These interactions, particularly feedback from small scales to large scales, lead to changes in thermohaline dynamics that propagate toward the Northern Adriatic Sea.

本研究评估了北亚得里亚海的动力降尺度性能,重点研究了涡旋动能谱和致密水形成。利用完善的模型框架,整个亚得里亚海的高分辨率(2公里)参考模拟可作为在亚得里亚海北部达到相同水平分辨率的一系列单向嵌套降尺度实验的基准。结果表明,1:3的降尺度比能有效再现局部能量收支和多尺度特征。然而,缺乏从小尺度到大尺度的反馈限制了降尺度的性能。这种限制在北亚得里亚海致密水地层中很明显,这是由本地和远程驱动因素之间的相互作用控制的。当浮力通量等局部驱动因素起主导作用时,致密水的形成过程可以很好地再现。相反,当母模型不能很好地解决远程影响,特别是通过奥特朗托海峡流入的含盐黎凡特中间水时,致密水形成的再现性就会恶化。我们的实验表明,2公里的水平分辨率可以有效地捕获海峡的跨尺度相互作用,而6公里的分辨率是不够的。这些相互作用,特别是从小尺度到大尺度的反馈,导致了向北亚得里亚海传播的热盐动力学的变化。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans
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