Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change最新文献

The global increase in extreme weather and climate events may dramatically impact agriculture, food safety, and socioeconomic dynamics. The Mediterranean basin is already exposed to extreme climatic events, severely challenging viticulture, a pivotal Mediterranean agro–industry. This study aims to understand better how climate is expected to evolve in six viticulturally important Mediterranean regions in Portugal, Italy, Turkey and Morocco, using a 4–member ensemble of climatic model projections under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for 2041–2070, and using the 1981–2010 period as a baseline. By comparing the main specific challenges these locations will face, we comparatively define the best strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change at the national and regional levels. Projections show increases in overall temperatures, up to + 3.6°C than the historical baseline, whilst precipitation projections indicate decreases that could reach 36% of the overall annual precipitation. Biological effective degree days, consecutive dry days, growing season length, tropical nights, or very heavy precipitation days, also show challenging prospects for viticulture in these countries. A screening of the adaptative strategies already undertaken in the studied countries suggests that growers are taking reactive rather than preventive strategies. Moreover, the discussion of the most suitable strategies in this study is region–specific, i.e., prioritised by the specific needs of each location. The conclusions drawn herein may support local growers, improving their decision–making based on the most adequate adaptive strategies to their conditions, thus optimising their sustainable production under changing climates.

Integrated risk management requires all stakeholders to work together proactively. Residents of floodplains can participate by implementing property-level adaptive measures. Risk communication materials can motivate those households to do so. Research on these materials is limited. Therefore, we systematically assessed freely available German risk communication materials in terms of their recommendations and how their content aligns with behavioural theories. We compare these results with data from surveyed households affected by urban flooding (N = 1,352) on their attitudes towards flood adaptation and the adaptation measures implemented.

209 risk communication materials were reviewed. Adaptation options (mostly evasion or resistance strategies) were communicated in 93%, the hazard itself in 78%, the local hazard situation in 48%, and responsibilities in risk management in 54% of the risk communication materials. These aspects were rarely broken down for the reader by, for example, presenting the damage that can be expected or by presenting measures with the expected costs or their response efficacy. However, these details commonly increase the adaptive behaviour of residents according to commonly used behavioural theories.

Survey data indicated that households feel able (82%) and responsible (41%) for implementing adaptive measures. However, many households indicated that measures are not effective (41%), too expensive (34%), and that there are not enough support programs (87%). We recommend that future risk communication materials focus more on communicating the efficacy and costs of adaptive measures and highlight funding opportunities. Our mixed method approach highlighted mismatches in information needed and provided.

Climate change is increasing challenges in the agricultural sector for smallholder farmers. A key element in successful formulation of adaptation strategies is the analysis of vulnerability to climate change. This study examines smallholder farmers’ contextual vulnerability to climate change through their perceived vulnerability and focuses on gendered narratives and power structures in the Taita Hills, Kenya. The key methods are semi-structured interviews (N = 28) and a critical discourse analysis. The collected data consists of two-headed household interviews, single-headed household interviews, and key informant interviews with different stakeholders from the agriculture sector. Results indicate that contextual vulnerability can form a baseline for understanding individuals’ possibilities to adapt to changing environmental and climatic conditions. Outcome vulnerability analysis, that treats vulnerability as an endpoint output following mitigation actions, offers highly relevant information, but it is not alone enough for understanding the challenges and possibilities of climate change adaptation. Women and men farmers’ coping and adaptation response strategies did not differ notably, which supports the criticism of the gendered nature of vulnerability discourse. Differences in strategies appeared to be more linked in intersectional aspects between farmers in single-headed and two-headed households. Furthermore, the vulnerable women narrative did not reflect women farmers’ agency and centrality in the agriculture sector. The discourse of climate change adaptation should be corrected towards addressing structural challenges that can place people in a vulnerable position within diverse contextual conditions and intersecting attributes.

In the face of rapid, consequential changes in coastal conditions, coastal communities and regions must make decisions to address these changes and negotiate pathways towards more sustainable futures. Making just and equitable decisions requires engaging the affected population and influential stakeholders in the process. These processes can be improved by considering and engaging with shared narratives present across both time and location. This paper reviews exemplary instances in which narratives have been employed in facilitating decisions in coastal regions, in particular, future-facing-narratives that reflect the social landscape and dynamics operating in parallel with environmental and geographical conditions. Recognizing and learning from these narratives deepens and facilitates making informed, meaningful decisions on complex, contested, value-laden issues facing coastal communities. This paper argues that decisions at scales from local-to-national can be improved by considering shared narratives of sustainability and social identity as central pillars of the negotiation around both governance processes and desirable outcomes.

Over-exploitation of groundwater for agricultural practices is an increasing risk in India and has important implications for food security and livelihoods, particularly for rural households. An analysis of primary data collected from a few blocks in West Bengal, a state in India, reveals that there is limited adaptation to climate change despite awareness and a tendency to keep lowering the bore-well depth to access water. In this paper, we take stock of some of the key solutions to move the farmers towards adopting climate smart agriculture techniques, with a special focus on water resource management. We pay close attention to the debate on the emergence of water markets, and provide some fresh perspectives on the same. We also discuss the importance of ‘gender-smart’ approaches, extension services, ownership of local government and community participation in ensuring adaptation. Overall, this study provides a broad understanding of the issues at stake to make climate smart agriculture viable in India.

The 19 papers included in this special issue examined the factors influencing the adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices among smallholder farmers and estimated the impacts of CSA adoption on farm production, income, and well-being. Key findings from this special issue include: (1) the variables, including age, gender, education, risk perception and preferences, access to credit, farm size, production conditions, off-farm income, and labour allocation, have a mixed (either positive or negative) influence on the adoption of CSA practices; (2) the variables, including labour endowment, land tenure security, access to extension services, agricultural training, membership in farmers’ organizations, support from non-governmental organizations, climate conditions, and access to information consistently have a positive impact on CSA adoption; (3) diverse forms of capital (physical, social, human, financial, natural, and institutional), social responsibility awareness, and digital advisory services can effectively promote CSA adoption; (4) the establishment of climate-smart villages and civil-society organizations enhances CSA adoption by improving their access to credit; (5) CSA adoption contributes to improved farm resilience to climate change and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions; (6) CSA adoption leads to higher crop yields, increased farm income, and greater economic diversification; (7) integrating CSA technologies into traditional agricultural practices not only boosts economic viability but also contributes to environmental sustainability and health benefits; and (8) there is a critical need for international collaboration in transferring technology for CSA. Overall, the findings of this special issue highlight that through targeted interventions and collaborative efforts, CSA can play a pivotal role in achieving food security, poverty alleviation, and climate resilience in farming communities worldwide and contribute to the achievements of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Climate change is a global phenomenon, which affects in several ways different regions all around the world, beyond the rise in global temperature. Among the different climate change issues, the management of transport infrastructures is crucial. Particularly, their vulnerability against changes in climatic conditions should be assessed. Vulnerability indicators are based on the IPCC concept of vulnerability and can be defined as a function of Climate Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity. These dimensions need to be addressed during the assessment making and can be modelled as a Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) problem. This study proposes an integrated approach of several MCDA methods as a possible tool for ranking the climate change vulnerability of coastal roads in Malta. The application covers six coastal roads in the islands of Malta, classified by three different MCDA methods. The results indicate that the proposed approach can produce a consistent ranking of the climate change vulnerability of coastal roads. The study provides policy and decision-makers with a definition of a coastal road, an inventory of such roads, a list of climate change impacts, and a mathematical model incorporating climate change vulnerability indicators. The model can be used to prioritize investment and plan climate change adaptation strategies for infrastructural works on coastal roads.

In developing countries, when the implementation success of new climate adaptation and mitigation technologies fall short of expectations, the typical “suspects” cited are lack of funding or country expertise and allusions to “lack of institutional capacity.” The premise of this study is that the national institutional environment is the fundamental prerequisite for successful technology implementation, and despite much effort, a diagnostic approach to assessing this prerequisite is missing. Here, I propose an approach to do this, based on an understanding of the dynamics that interconnect country-level legal, regulatory and market mechanisms, societal norms, and inter/intra governmental structures. I estimate levels of country structural and systems supports, operating environment, implementer acceptance and country tractability. A preliminary test of the approach was completed through a survey of experts involved in the United Nations Technology Needs Assessment programs in Least Developed and Small Island Developing Countries. It was found that countries fall into four fundamental archetypes. A country’s archetype suggests characteristics of the institutional environment that help to explain the potential for technology implementation success. A further implication is that some countries that typically would not be considered very similar may possess similar country institutional environments. One consequence of this is that archetype-based groups could work together and learn from each other more effectively.

There are strong interdependencies between the Blue Economy (BE) and the effects of climate change. This paper examines how the coastal and island African countries with strategies and action plans related to the BE have integrated climate change mitigation and adaptation in their national BE approach. It explores the methods they have adopted for climate change mitigation and adaptation, based on their BE strategies and nationally determined contributions (NDC) submissions. The paper also looks at the connections and synergies between these climate change actions and the BE plans of these countries. The key areas explored are (1) activities to reduce GHG emissions specifically using blue energy and reduction in maritime transport emissions and (2) activities with primary carbon sequestration benefits, as well as resilience co-benefits such as protection of marine and coastal environments, rehabilitation and restoration of marine and coastal ecosystems, and seaweed aquaculture. Across Africa, climate change is integrated into the BE strategies or action plans to varying degrees. Of the twelve countries with official BE strategies or action plans in place, only three recognise the severity of climate change and have practical activities for mitigation and adaptation prioritised in their BE action plans. Overall, the primary drivers for growth in the BE are more focused on meeting economic and social demands rather than on ecological and environmental needs. The strategies assessed are not synergised and still largely exist in silos, as are the BE strategies or action plans and the NDCs. Where climate change is integrated, the BE strategies and action plans are far more focused on climate change adaptation and resilience responses compared to mitigation responses. Improved understanding of the climate change responses themselves and of their synergistic effects with the BE is needed in order for them to be integrated in a meaningful and impactful way. Given the increasing drive to develop BE strategies and plans across Africa, largely driven by regional bodies, this work highlights the need for potential BE strategies to harness the synergies between adaptation, mitigation, growth, and development and explore the potential of initiating positively reinforcing cycles of benefits.

Greenhouse gas emission reduction in the passenger transport sector is a main challenge for China’s climate mitigation agenda. Electrification and shared mobility provide encouraging options for carbon emissions reduction in road transport. Based on an integrated scenario-based assessment framework, a provincial-level projection is made for vehicle growth and CO₂ emissions in China under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). This work illustrates how passenger car electrification and sharing contribute to China’s “30·60” climate goals (peaking of CO₂ emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060). The results demonstrate that China is en route to achieving the goal of a 2030 carbon peak (1.0Gt CO₂) under current conditions, and could reach peak emissions around 2026 with optimistic growth in EVs and shared mobility. Compared with no policy action, the single EV policy (shifting from ICEVs to EVs) can reduce 71% of emissions by 2060, thus narrowing but not closing the mitigation gap to carbon neutrality in passenger cars (302 Mt CO₂). Shared mobility can provide further emission reduction support, reducing emissions by 83% in 2060. Comprehensive climate actions (including electrification, sharing mobility to reduce car use, and improving vehicle efficiency and fuel carbon intensity) are needed to achieve deep decarbonization to net-zero by 2060 in the passenger transport sector.