Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change最新文献

During the past years, the impact of climate change in Latin America has become more evident. It is affecting its natural resources and delaying sustainable development. Achieving the 1.5 °C long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement while ensuring the right to sustainable development is of particular interest to regions with high vulnerability and low adaptation capacity for climate change, such as Latin America. This article analyzes whether the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted within the Paris Agreement framework by Latin American countries align with achieving the 1.5 °C goal. For this analysis, the global carbon budget from 2020 onwards, compatible with the 1.5 °C global temperature scenario, is distributed among countries using two dimensions of equity (equality and historical responsibility). Then, the carbon budget allocated to Latin American countries is compared with the cumulative emissions implied in two scenarios. The first one is the NDC scenario that assumes the implementation of the NDCs submitted until December 31, 2022. The second scenario adds the goal of ending deforestation by 2030, signed by several countries of this region in the Global Leaders Declaration on Forest. Two main conclusions are obtained from the analysis of the cited scenarios. First, Latin American countries will consume 77% of their carbon budget in 2030 by implementing their NDCs. Second, this percentage could be reduced to 58% if Latin American countries reach zero emissions from the Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry sector by 2030. If achieved, the region would be on track to reach the 1.5 °C global goal.

A rapid defossilisation of the industry sector is required to stop further greenhouse gas emissions and to curb global warming. Additionally, to avoid irreversible consequences caused by climate change, the deployment of negative emission technologies is required to reduce the carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration in Earth’s atmosphere to a sustainable level. A novel approach to store gaseous CO₂ from direct air capture facilities in solid silicon carbide (SiC) is presented. A chain of established processes to produce SiC from renewable electricity and air is evaluated in terms of energy and mass balances. Furthermore, possible fields of SiC utilisation are considered. Electricity-based SiC (e-SiC) can serve the growing global market for technical ceramics and can possibly be used to tackle increasing construction sand shortages in the construction industry by partially substituting sand. Calculations of the levelised cost of carbon dioxide removal show that storing ambient CO₂ in solid SiC that can be subsequently sold on the world market can eventually create profit. In 2050, a net benefit of 259 €/tCO₂ or 631 €/tSiC can be realised if the SiC product is sold at the world market with additional carbon compensation. Therefore, the proposed SiC production chain might be able to challenge conventionally produced SiC, while empowering negative emissions. In 2050, the net CO₂ emission potential is limited to about 290 MtCO₂/a for technical ceramics, but may reach up to 13.6 GtCO₂/a for construction sand. Results show that e-SiC production is economically feasible for technical ceramics but not for construction sand without further process cost decrease. Alternative processes to produce e-SiC are described and evaluated. Future research opportunities are discussed.

Recent model projections and many research results along the world suggest that forests could be significant carbon sinks or sources in the future, contributing in such a way to global warming mitigation. Conversion of coppice forest to high forest may play an important role towards this direction. However, the most effective way for this to succeed is questionable. This study examines the long-term effect of different intensity thinning (light 10% of the volume removal every 5–10 years, moderate 15%, and heavy 20%) on biomass, and on all the carbon pool categories (according to IPCC), as well as the accumulation rates, in a 77-year-old oak ecosystem, which has been subjected to conversion from coppice to high forest through repeating thinning since 1973. The research included numerous field tree measurements, and a systematic sampling of standing and fallen dead wood, litter, and surface soil up to 50 cm depth. Data analysis shows that heavy and moderate thinning result in a greater accumulation of carbon in the aboveground ecosystem pools, especially in living biomass, with an average annual rate of 1.62 Mg C ha⁻¹ carbon accumulation in living aboveground tree biomass, resulting in a carbon pool of 125.04Mg C ha⁻¹ at the age of 77 years. Dead wood volume was found low in all thinning treatment with significant differences between the thinning intensities. Litter carbon pool was also affected by moderate and heavy thinning, while soil carbon was unaffected by the treatments. The findings could contribute on climate change mitigation actions if they are adopted in forest management plans of similar types of forest ecosystems; a periodical thinning application of removal ca. 20% of wood volume is suggested.

Around the world, Indigenous Peoples and local communities are exposed to different climate change impacts to which they respond in a myriad of ways. Despite this diversity, there are few comparative studies assessing the magnitude of livelihood system change resulting from Indigenous Peoples’ and local communities’ responses to climate change impacts. Drawing on the analysis of 210 peer-reviewed publications, we analyze 3292 Indigenous Peoples’ and local communities’ responses to climate change impacts, focusing on the magnitude of change they entail. Globally, Indigenous Peoples and local communities are actively adjusting their livelihood activities, most frequently applying incremental responses. However, in half of the case studies, communities fully or partially transform their livelihoods to respond to climate change impacts. Both incremental and transformational responses can have adverse impacts on Indigenous Peoples’ and local communities’ lives. Trends in the magnitude of livelihood changes are similar across climates and livelihoods except for responses in (semi-)arid climates, where most intermediate and transformational responses take place, and for responses in cultivation, where most incremental changes take place. When transformational adaptation occurs, Indigenous Peoples and local communities often not only give up their livelihood strategy, but also their culture and way of living.

The fight against global warming requires novel approaches for the defossilisation of industrial processes, and the limitation of global warming requires options for negative carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The production of carbon fibre (CF) is an energy-intensive chain of processes which cause CO₂ emissions. Having in mind the high market growth for CF composite materials, CF production might stand against the fight against global warming. CF also offers a huge mitigation opportunity, as CF contain up to 95–98wt% of pure carbon. This study investigates possible ways to link CF production to atmospheric CO₂, enabling negative CO₂ emissions through CF manufacturing. Production value chains for CF based on poly(acrylonitrile) (PAN) and pitch, the two most important CF precursor materials, are developed and analysed regarding their energy and mass balances. The PAN value chain is further assessed regarding a first economic estimation of CF production cost with atmospheric CO₂ as carbon source. The results show that production costs per ton CO₂ removed might be unattractive at 2949 €/tCO₂ in 2050. However, from a CF perspective, production cost of 10.3 €/kgCF in 2050 might enable a business case for electricity-based CF production from atmospheric CO₂ in the future. Each ton of CF produced can store about 3.5 tCO₂ due to a very high carbon share in the final product. With an increasing market for CF, a total negative emission potential of at least 0.7 GtCO₂ per year can be enabled by 2050. Further research opportunities are discussed.

Climate change is exacerbating events such as floods and droughts, and trends including sea-level rise, leading to failures in sanitation technologies, increased public health risks and environmental pollution. To reduce these risks, it is crucial to incorporate climate resilience into sanitation technology designs. In this study, we reviewed academic and selected grey literature and identified 25 design features that can contribute to the technology's resilience to an increasingly volatile and extreme climate. Design features that were conceptually similar were collated into seven categories. These categories included: (i) avoid exposure to hazards, (ii) withstand exposure to hazards, (iii) enable flexibility, (iv) contain failures, (v) limit consequences of complete failure, (vi) facilitate fast recovery and (vii) features that provide resilience benefits beyond technological resilience. In this paper we define the categories and design features, and provide examples of each feature in practice. We also outline how the resilience design features can support sanitation designers and implementers to critique the climate resilience of sanitation technology, and prompt more resilient designs of sanitation technology.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11027-024-10177-7.

Abstract

In order to achieve the commonly agreed emission reduction target, the European Commission called upon the member states to submit National Energy and Climate Plans to ensure increased transparency for the respective national targets and strategies. An analysis of these plans shows that some member states have declared ambitious emission reductions targets, as well as technology-specific phaseout policies in the power sector. A transformation to a climate-friendly system requires considerable investment, the question arises if there are benefits to be in the vanguard. We find that countries may have an incentive to outperform in the development of a low-carbon electricity system.

Abstract

Ocean deoxygenation and expansion and intensification of hypoxia in the ocean are a major, growing threat to marine ecosystems. Measures currently used to protect marine biodiversity (e.g., marine protected areas) are ineffective in countering this threat. Here, we highlight the example of the Gulf of St. Lawrence in eastern Canada, where oxygen loss is not only due to eutrophication (which can be mitigated by nutrient controls) but also is a consequence of ocean circulation change and warming. Climate-related loss of oxygen will be an increasingly widespread source of risk to marine biodiversity over this century. Again using the Gulf of St. Lawrence as an example, we show that production of oxygen by the green hydrogen industry can be comparable to the loss rate of dissolved oxygen on large spatial scales, offering new possibilities for mitigation. However, this mitigation approach has rarely been considered for marine environments to date. Given confluence of increasing risk to marine ecosystems from oxygen loss and rapid emergence, worldwide, of industrial sources of pure oxygen, which are likely to be located in coastal regions, we believe this option will be proposed increasingly in coming years, including by the private sector. We argue that it is urgent for ocean scientists, engineers, and policymakers to recognize and address this emerging potential. A coordinated research effort should be established immediately in order to harness the potential of the green hydrogen industry to mitigate major impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity, and avoid any unintended negative consequences.

This study examined the impact of eight climate change adaptation practices on technical efficiency (TE) among 843 rice farmers in Central China. Data were collected across ten counties in Hubei province in 2019. Given that spatial dependency is present in social and economic systems, we accounted for the spatial autocorrelation of TE. We estimated both a one-step nonspatial stochastic frontier model and a spatial stochastic frontier model. We verified that spatial spillovers were present in the TE of rice farmers, suggesting that the nonspatial stochastic frontier model underestimated TE. Results showed that adopting climate change adaptation strategies significantly affected TE. These effects, however, varied in directionality by the different adaptation measures evaluated in this study. Overall, adjusting preparation dates, improving irrigation systems, and increasing cultivated areas positively affected TE at 1%, 0.1%, and 5% significance levels. In contrast, the coefficients for both using flood-tolerant rice varieties and adjusting sowing dates were negative and significant at 5% and 10% significant levels. Interestingly, the effects of using high-yield rice varieties and adjusting fertilizer use were not significant. Finally, this study did not find any evidence that adaptation intensity affected the TE of rice production. Based on these results, we discussed implications for future climate-smart agriculture programs addressing the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural production in China.