Madeleine Ekblom, Lauri Tuppi, Olle Räty, P. Ollinaho, M. Laine, H. Järvinen
{"title":"Filter Likelihood as an Observation-Based Verification Metric in Ensemble Forecasting","authors":"Madeleine Ekblom, Lauri Tuppi, Olle Räty, P. Ollinaho, M. Laine, H. Järvinen","doi":"10.16993/tellusa.96","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.96","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54433,"journal":{"name":"Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography","volume":"115 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79043591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Preliminary Assimilation of Satellite Derived Land Surface Temperature from SEVIRI in the Surface Scheme of the AROME-France Model","authors":"M. Sassi, N. Fourrié, V. Guidard, C. Birman","doi":"10.16993/tellusa.48","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.48","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54433,"journal":{"name":"Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82561363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Novel Machine Learning Based Bias Correction Method and Its Application to Sea Level in an Ensemble of Downscaled Climate Projections","authors":"M. Hieronymus, F. Hieronymus","doi":"10.16993/tellusa.3216","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.3216","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54433,"journal":{"name":"Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81583707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Merits of Ocean Prediction for the Prediction of 2010, 2016, and 2021 Summer Heavy Rainfall Events in Japan","authors":"Y. Baba","doi":"10.16993/tellusa.1147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.1147","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54433,"journal":{"name":"Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90901859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The station observations and reanalysis dataset are utilized to explore the effects of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the cold extremes over the whole country of China, and the possible mechanisms from the perspective of the thermodynamics. Here, we focus on the principal modes of different phases of MJO in winter and their influences on the large scale cold events (LSCEs) that are identified firstly. The time evolution and the spatial features of LSCEs are checked for a basic insight of the LSCEs in China, of which the annual variability and regional differences are obvious among the chosen LSECs. In addition, the first (second) empirical orthogonal decomposition mode of MJO shows an opposite feature that positive values in Phases 1–3 (Phase 4–5) and negative values in Phases 5–7 (Phase 7–8), with the explanation of variance at 30.6% (26%). Furthermore, according to the threshold of ±1.5 in standardized time series of two principal components (PC1 and PC2), the events are chosen and clarified into four cases (+PC1, –PC1, +PC2 and –PC2). All the MJO-related cases present the increases of LSCEs but with regional and intensity differences. For the case of +PC1, the cold advection from higher latitudes transport to eastern Asia inducing negative temperature anomalies thereof. For the case of –PC1, besides the eastern Asian region, there still the cold advections across the Inner Mongolia regions, leaving negative anomalies over the region either. For the case of +PC2, the southward wind and the accompanied cold advection are stronger than the others affecting mostly regions in China, which leads to the more decreases of temperature. For the case of –PC2, the cold advections are weaker, resulting in the less temperature decreases over the southeastern China. Meanwhile, the tropospheric cyclonic and anti-cyclonic circulation anomalies are beneficial to the persistence of local extremes.
{"title":"Influence of Phase Variations of Madden-Julian Oscillation on Wintertime Large-Scale Cold Events in China","authors":"Tao Feng, Li Li, Lei Wang, Zelin Cai","doi":"10.16993/tellusa.3233","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.3233","url":null,"abstract":"The station observations and reanalysis dataset are utilized to explore the effects of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the cold extremes over the whole country of China, and the possible mechanisms from the perspective of the thermodynamics. Here, we focus on the principal modes of different phases of MJO in winter and their influences on the large scale cold events (LSCEs) that are identified firstly. The time evolution and the spatial features of LSCEs are checked for a basic insight of the LSCEs in China, of which the annual variability and regional differences are obvious among the chosen LSECs. In addition, the first (second) empirical orthogonal decomposition mode of MJO shows an opposite feature that positive values in Phases 1–3 (Phase 4–5) and negative values in Phases 5–7 (Phase 7–8), with the explanation of variance at 30.6% (26%). Furthermore, according to the threshold of ±1.5 in standardized time series of two principal components (PC1 and PC2), the events are chosen and clarified into four cases (+PC1, –PC1, +PC2 and –PC2). All the MJO-related cases present the increases of LSCEs but with regional and intensity differences. For the case of +PC1, the cold advection from higher latitudes transport to eastern Asia inducing negative temperature anomalies thereof. For the case of –PC1, besides the eastern Asian region, there still the cold advections across the Inner Mongolia regions, leaving negative anomalies over the region either. For the case of +PC2, the southward wind and the accompanied cold advection are stronger than the others affecting mostly regions in China, which leads to the more decreases of temperature. For the case of –PC2, the cold advections are weaker, resulting in the less temperature decreases over the southeastern China. Meanwhile, the tropospheric cyclonic and anti-cyclonic circulation anomalies are beneficial to the persistence of local extremes.","PeriodicalId":54433,"journal":{"name":"Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80095773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Two Methods for Data Assimilation of Wind Direction","authors":"I. Grooms","doi":"10.16993/tellusa.2005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.2005","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54433,"journal":{"name":"Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography","volume":"151 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74852794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Comparison of Sea Surface Temperature Perturbation Methods for a Convection Permitting Ensemble Prediction System Over the European Arctic","authors":"Rafael Grote, A. Singleton","doi":"10.16993/tellusa.27","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.27","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54433,"journal":{"name":"Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89308844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Two-Dimensional Dynamics of Ice Crystal Parcels in a Cirrus Uncinus","authors":"R. Berton","doi":"10.16993/tellusa.3227","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.3227","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54433,"journal":{"name":"Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74449342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Effect of the Quadric Shear Zonal Flows and Beta on the Downstream Development of Certain Unstable Baroclinic Waves","authors":"Jian Song, Y. Yang","doi":"10.16993/tellusa.28","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.28","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54433,"journal":{"name":"Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84468771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"In Memoriam Gösta Walin 1938–2022","authors":"J. Nilsson, Peter Davies, A. Stigebrandt","doi":"10.16993/tellusa.3225","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.3225","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54433,"journal":{"name":"Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85510364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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