Howard Kleinwaks, Ann Batchelor, Thomas H. Bradley
The metaphor of “technical debt” is used in software engineering to describe technical solutions that may be pragmatic in the near‐term but may have a negative long‐term impact. Similar decisions and similar dynamics are present in the field of systems engineering. This work investigates the current body of knowledge to identify if, and how, the technical debt metaphor is used within the systems engineering field and which systems engineering lifecycle stages are most susceptible to technical debt. A systematic literature review was conducted on 354 papers in February 2022, of which 18 were deemed relevant for inclusion in the study. The results of the systematic literature review show that the technical debt metaphor is not prevalent within systems engineering research and that existing research is limited to specific fields and theoretical discussions. This paper concludes with recommendations for future work to establish a research agenda on the identification and management of technical debt within systems engineering.
{"title":"Technical debt in systems engineering—A systematic literature review","authors":"Howard Kleinwaks, Ann Batchelor, Thomas H. Bradley","doi":"10.1002/sys.21681","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sys.21681","url":null,"abstract":"The metaphor of “technical debt” is used in software engineering to describe technical solutions that may be pragmatic in the near‐term but may have a negative long‐term impact. Similar decisions and similar dynamics are present in the field of systems engineering. This work investigates the current body of knowledge to identify if, and how, the technical debt metaphor is used within the systems engineering field and which systems engineering lifecycle stages are most susceptible to technical debt. A systematic literature review was conducted on 354 papers in February 2022, of which 18 were deemed relevant for inclusion in the study. The results of the systematic literature review show that the technical debt metaphor is not prevalent within systems engineering research and that existing research is limited to specific fields and theoretical discussions. This paper concludes with recommendations for future work to establish a research agenda on the identification and management of technical debt within systems engineering.","PeriodicalId":54439,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47533356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The metaphor of technical debt (TD) is widely adopted in the software engineering field, referring to short‐term compromises in software artifacts in exchange for speed or to meet release schedules or other constraints. The implication is that TDs accumulate over time, and may eventually make rework or maintenance very expensive or even impossible. The analogy is generally applicable in the systems engineering field, particularly concerning numerous program cancellation and obsolescence challenges due to premature decisions made in early acquisition phases. This paper adapts this metaphor of TD to the systems engineering field, and proposes a TD taxonomy to support the early identification and assessment of TD items in engineering complex systems, especially in the early life cycle phases of engineering complex, distributed systems. The taxonomy identifies seven TD types: functionality, performance, interoperability, version conflicts, documentation and support, system evolution, and organic, based on systematic indicators and signs discoverable during early acquisition activities. We expect that the notion and the taxonomy of TD will offer an additional perspective for design decisions that will help mitigate challenging integration and obsolescence issues in the engineering of complex systems.
{"title":"Technical debt in the engineering of complex systems","authors":"Yeeun Yang, D. Verma, P. Antón","doi":"10.1002/sys.21677","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sys.21677","url":null,"abstract":"The metaphor of technical debt (TD) is widely adopted in the software engineering field, referring to short‐term compromises in software artifacts in exchange for speed or to meet release schedules or other constraints. The implication is that TDs accumulate over time, and may eventually make rework or maintenance very expensive or even impossible. The analogy is generally applicable in the systems engineering field, particularly concerning numerous program cancellation and obsolescence challenges due to premature decisions made in early acquisition phases. This paper adapts this metaphor of TD to the systems engineering field, and proposes a TD taxonomy to support the early identification and assessment of TD items in engineering complex systems, especially in the early life cycle phases of engineering complex, distributed systems. The taxonomy identifies seven TD types: functionality, performance, interoperability, version conflicts, documentation and support, system evolution, and organic, based on systematic indicators and signs discoverable during early acquisition activities. We expect that the notion and the taxonomy of TD will offer an additional perspective for design decisions that will help mitigate challenging integration and obsolescence issues in the engineering of complex systems.","PeriodicalId":54439,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47875125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Flavio Augusto R. S. Duque, Lucas F. Goulart, Adelti Assis Silva, Cecilia A. Castro Cesar
Currently, the Internet of Things (IoT) technology offers a portfolio of solutions for predictive maintenance and promises problem‐solving. However, there is no systematic strategy for legacy systems capable of taking advantage of the knowledge of the company's culture and simultaneously enabling the incremental deployment of IoT. This article proposes an expansion of the Ignite Systems Development Methodology introduced by Bosch. The proposed methodology is focused on the Maintenance task and incorporates concepts rooted in the industry, such as OEE, FMEA, and CBM. We tested the Methodology through a case study, and the result was a significant reduction in downtime.
{"title":"Incremental IoT for industrial maintenance using the legacy culture","authors":"Flavio Augusto R. S. Duque, Lucas F. Goulart, Adelti Assis Silva, Cecilia A. Castro Cesar","doi":"10.1002/sys.21680","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sys.21680","url":null,"abstract":"Currently, the Internet of Things (IoT) technology offers a portfolio of solutions for predictive maintenance and promises problem‐solving. However, there is no systematic strategy for legacy systems capable of taking advantage of the knowledge of the company's culture and simultaneously enabling the incremental deployment of IoT. This article proposes an expansion of the Ignite Systems Development Methodology introduced by Bosch. The proposed methodology is focused on the Maintenance task and incorporates concepts rooted in the industry, such as OEE, FMEA, and CBM. We tested the Methodology through a case study, and the result was a significant reduction in downtime.","PeriodicalId":54439,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47825292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Control systems are typically tightly embedded into their environment to enable adaptation to environmental effects. As the complexity of such adaptive systems is rapidly increasing, there is a strong need for coherent tool‐centric approaches to aid their systematic development. This paper proposes an end‐to‐end component‐based specification, design and verification approach for adaptive systems based on the integration of a high‐level scenario language (sequence chart variant) and an adaptation definition language (statechart extension) in the open source Gamma tool. The scenario language supports high‐level constructs for specifying contracts and the adaptation definition language supports the flexible activation and deactivation of static contracts and managed elements (state‐based components) based on internal changes (e.g., faults), environmental changes (e.g., varying context) or interactions. The approach supports linking managed elements to static contracts to formally verify their adherence to the specified behavior at design time using integrated model checkers. Implementation can be derived from the adaptation model automatically, which can be tested using automated test generation and verified at runtime by contract‐based monitors.
{"title":"Component‐based specification, design and verification of adaptive systems","authors":"Bence Graics, V. Molnár, I. Majzik","doi":"10.1002/sys.21675","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sys.21675","url":null,"abstract":"Control systems are typically tightly embedded into their environment to enable adaptation to environmental effects. As the complexity of such adaptive systems is rapidly increasing, there is a strong need for coherent tool‐centric approaches to aid their systematic development. This paper proposes an end‐to‐end component‐based specification, design and verification approach for adaptive systems based on the integration of a high‐level scenario language (sequence chart variant) and an adaptation definition language (statechart extension) in the open source Gamma tool. The scenario language supports high‐level constructs for specifying contracts and the adaptation definition language supports the flexible activation and deactivation of static contracts and managed elements (state‐based components) based on internal changes (e.g., faults), environmental changes (e.g., varying context) or interactions. The approach supports linking managed elements to static contracts to formally verify their adherence to the specified behavior at design time using integrated model checkers. Implementation can be derived from the adaptation model automatically, which can be tested using automated test generation and verified at runtime by contract‐based monitors.","PeriodicalId":54439,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44309783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
New business opportunities, driven by smart digitalization technology and initiatives such as Industry 4.0, significantly change business models and their innovation rate. The complexity of methodologies developed in recent decades for balancing exploration and exploitation activities of digital transformation has risen. Still, the desired integration levels across organizational levels were often not reached. Systems thinking promises to holistically consider interdisciplinary relationships and objectives of various stakeholders across supply chain ecosystems. Systems theory‐based concepts can simultaneously improve value identification and aligned transformation among supply networks’ organizational and technical domains. Hence, the study proposes synthesizing management science concepts such as strategic alignment with enterprise architecture concepts and artificial intelligence (AI)‐driven business process optimization to increase innovation productivity and master the increasing rate of business dynamics at the same time. Based on a critical review, the study explores concepts for innovation, transformation, and alignment in the context of Industry 4.0. The essence has been compiled into a systems engineering‐driven framework for agile value generation on operational processes and high‐order capability levels. The approach improves visibility for orchestrating sustainable value flows and transformation activities by considering the ambidexterity of exploring and exploiting activities and the viability of supply chain systems and sub‐systems. Finally, the study demonstrates the need to harmonize these concepts into a concise methodology and taxonomy for digital supply chain engineering.
{"title":"Activating supply chain business models' value potentials through Systems Engineering","authors":"Jochen Nuerk, F. Dařena","doi":"10.1002/sys.21676","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sys.21676","url":null,"abstract":"New business opportunities, driven by smart digitalization technology and initiatives such as Industry 4.0, significantly change business models and their innovation rate. The complexity of methodologies developed in recent decades for balancing exploration and exploitation activities of digital transformation has risen. Still, the desired integration levels across organizational levels were often not reached. Systems thinking promises to holistically consider interdisciplinary relationships and objectives of various stakeholders across supply chain ecosystems. Systems theory‐based concepts can simultaneously improve value identification and aligned transformation among supply networks’ organizational and technical domains. Hence, the study proposes synthesizing management science concepts such as strategic alignment with enterprise architecture concepts and artificial intelligence (AI)‐driven business process optimization to increase innovation productivity and master the increasing rate of business dynamics at the same time. Based on a critical review, the study explores concepts for innovation, transformation, and alignment in the context of Industry 4.0. The essence has been compiled into a systems engineering‐driven framework for agile value generation on operational processes and high‐order capability levels. The approach improves visibility for orchestrating sustainable value flows and transformation activities by considering the ambidexterity of exploring and exploiting activities and the viability of supply chain systems and sub‐systems. Finally, the study demonstrates the need to harmonize these concepts into a concise methodology and taxonomy for digital supply chain engineering.","PeriodicalId":54439,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44410579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Systems engineers regularly rely on analysis of early design artifacts like system architecture representations to predict system performance, lifecycle costs, and development schedules, and to support design decision‐making. Recent recognition of challenges in this type of measurement has led to a heightened focus on developing better metrics. Less attention has been paid to the system representations upon which all subsequent analysis is performed. With this study, we demonstrate that choices about how to represent the system can explain variation in measurement, even holding metrics constant. This is important because most of these representation choices remain unarticulated in current practice. To do this, we conduct a controlled experiment where we experimentally manipulated the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) architecture representation of nine crowdsourced robotic arm designs and compared the value and relative ranks of their modularity and complexity. We found statistically significant changes in both value and rank, attributable to differences in choices in the system representation. The direction and magnitude of these changes also differed across modularity and complexity. In addition, some underlying designs seemed to be more robust to representation changes. This suggests an interaction between representation, design, and lifecycle properties. These results emphasize the importance of developing standard guidelines for how to represent system architectures and better documenting their use.
{"title":"The impact of system representation choices on architecting insights","authors":"Anthony Hennig, Z. Szajnfarber","doi":"10.1002/sys.21673","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sys.21673","url":null,"abstract":"Systems engineers regularly rely on analysis of early design artifacts like system architecture representations to predict system performance, lifecycle costs, and development schedules, and to support design decision‐making. Recent recognition of challenges in this type of measurement has led to a heightened focus on developing better metrics. Less attention has been paid to the system representations upon which all subsequent analysis is performed. With this study, we demonstrate that choices about how to represent the system can explain variation in measurement, even holding metrics constant. This is important because most of these representation choices remain unarticulated in current practice. To do this, we conduct a controlled experiment where we experimentally manipulated the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) architecture representation of nine crowdsourced robotic arm designs and compared the value and relative ranks of their modularity and complexity. We found statistically significant changes in both value and rank, attributable to differences in choices in the system representation. The direction and magnitude of these changes also differed across modularity and complexity. In addition, some underlying designs seemed to be more robust to representation changes. This suggests an interaction between representation, design, and lifecycle properties. These results emphasize the importance of developing standard guidelines for how to represent system architectures and better documenting their use.","PeriodicalId":54439,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50881530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pediatric Failure To Thrive (FTT), commonly presented in young infants, is often not diagnosed on time or missed. Lack of timely infants’ diagnosis can adversely affect their growth and development. We have developed and successfully tested FTTell—a model‐based system for diagnosing FTT during common pediatric follow up. FTTell is an executable model‐based diagnostic tool for diagnosing FTT. We use Object‐Process Methodology extended with Methodical Approach to Executable Integrative Modeling, enabling qualitative considerations and quantitative parameters of the problem to be modeled jointly, enabling FTT diagnosis. The validity of FTTell is demonstrated on data collected from 100 infants. For each child, FTTell calculates a score indicating FTT presence and severity. We compared the systems’ outcomes to a pediatric gastroenterologist expert severity assessment. Of the 100 infants, the system initially yielded 82% validity. Reassessment improved it to 87% validity. Pediatricians may miss infants with FTT, especially in borderline cases. FTTell can effectively serve as a FTT diagnosis tool, boosting pediatricians’ correct diagnosis and proper investigation. Our cloud‐based system can be continuously updated with the latest research findings. FTTell can diagnose FTT and its severity in infants with 87% accuracy. Pediatricians can use this model‐based standardized approach to improve their FTT diagnosis and provide appropriate timely intervention when needed. Model‐based diagnosis is a novel application of conceptual models, and OPM ISO 19450 is especially fit for this purpose. The model‐based diagnosis approach can be extended beyond medicine to diagnosing problems with engineered, technological, and socio‐technical systems.
儿童发育迟缓（FTT）通常发生在年幼的婴儿身上，通常没有及时诊断或错过。缺乏及时的婴儿诊断可能会对他们的生长发育产生不利影响。我们已经开发并成功测试了FTTell——一种基于模型的系统，用于在常见的儿科随访中诊断FTT。FTTell是一个可执行的基于模型的诊断工具，用于诊断FTT。我们使用对象-过程方法论扩展了可执行集成建模的方法论，使问题的定性考虑和定量参数能够联合建模，从而实现FTT诊断。FTTell的有效性是通过从100名婴儿身上收集的数据来证明的。对于每个孩子，FTTell计算一个分数，指示FTT的存在和严重程度。我们将该系统的结果与儿科胃肠病专家的严重程度评估进行了比较。在100名婴儿中，该系统最初产生了82%的有效性。重新评估将其有效性提高到87%。儿科医生可能会错过患有FTT的婴儿，尤其是在临界病例中。FTTell可以有效地作为FTT诊断工具，促进儿科医生的正确诊断和适当调查。我们基于云的系统可以不断更新最新的研究结果。FTTell可以诊断婴儿FTT及其严重程度，准确率为87%。儿科医生可以使用这种基于模型的标准化方法来改进他们的FTT诊断，并在需要时提供适当的及时干预。基于模型的诊断是概念模型的一种新应用，OPM ISO 19450特别适合这一目的。基于模型的诊断方法可以从医学扩展到工程、技术和社会技术系统的诊断问题。
{"title":"Model‐based diagnosis with FTTell: Diagnosing early pediatric failure to thrive","authors":"N. Soskin, Fatma Yasin, D. Dori, R. Shaoul","doi":"10.1002/sys.21674","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sys.21674","url":null,"abstract":"Pediatric Failure To Thrive (FTT), commonly presented in young infants, is often not diagnosed on time or missed. Lack of timely infants’ diagnosis can adversely affect their growth and development. We have developed and successfully tested FTTell—a model‐based system for diagnosing FTT during common pediatric follow up. FTTell is an executable model‐based diagnostic tool for diagnosing FTT. We use Object‐Process Methodology extended with Methodical Approach to Executable Integrative Modeling, enabling qualitative considerations and quantitative parameters of the problem to be modeled jointly, enabling FTT diagnosis. The validity of FTTell is demonstrated on data collected from 100 infants. For each child, FTTell calculates a score indicating FTT presence and severity. We compared the systems’ outcomes to a pediatric gastroenterologist expert severity assessment. Of the 100 infants, the system initially yielded 82% validity. Reassessment improved it to 87% validity. Pediatricians may miss infants with FTT, especially in borderline cases. FTTell can effectively serve as a FTT diagnosis tool, boosting pediatricians’ correct diagnosis and proper investigation. Our cloud‐based system can be continuously updated with the latest research findings. FTTell can diagnose FTT and its severity in infants with 87% accuracy. Pediatricians can use this model‐based standardized approach to improve their FTT diagnosis and provide appropriate timely intervention when needed. Model‐based diagnosis is a novel application of conceptual models, and OPM ISO 19450 is especially fit for this purpose. The model‐based diagnosis approach can be extended beyond medicine to diagnosing problems with engineered, technological, and socio‐technical systems.","PeriodicalId":54439,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44703914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Brian Chell, Matthew J. LeVine, Leigha Capra, J. Sellers, P. Grogan
The New Observing Strategies Testbed (NOS‐T) is a digital engineering environment for enabling distributed space mission (DSM) technology demonstrations. Its event‐driven architecture enables users to orchestrate DSM test campaigns by developing applications that communicate state changes via messages. NOS‐T is motivated by requirements such as geographical distribution, cross‐boundary participation, wide applicability, and usability that make it unique in this field. This article introduces NOS‐T and describes its architecture in the context of an example DSM test suite, FireSat+. The scalability of NOS‐T is demonstrated with a performance assessment of its capabilities under a stress test of high message frequency and payload size, which are both related to the complexity of potential user‐generated test cases. Results show that message periodicity has no significant effect on median delay time over the ranges sampled; however, the message payload size induces linear growth in median delay time of approximately 1.5 ms per kB. Future NOS‐T applications can adjust the execution time scaling factor and message payload size to match operational constraints on allowable delay.
{"title":"New observing strategies testbed: A digital prototyping platform for distributed space missions","authors":"Brian Chell, Matthew J. LeVine, Leigha Capra, J. Sellers, P. Grogan","doi":"10.1002/sys.21672","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sys.21672","url":null,"abstract":"The New Observing Strategies Testbed (NOS‐T) is a digital engineering environment for enabling distributed space mission (DSM) technology demonstrations. Its event‐driven architecture enables users to orchestrate DSM test campaigns by developing applications that communicate state changes via messages. NOS‐T is motivated by requirements such as geographical distribution, cross‐boundary participation, wide applicability, and usability that make it unique in this field. This article introduces NOS‐T and describes its architecture in the context of an example DSM test suite, FireSat+. The scalability of NOS‐T is demonstrated with a performance assessment of its capabilities under a stress test of high message frequency and payload size, which are both related to the complexity of potential user‐generated test cases. Results show that message periodicity has no significant effect on median delay time over the ranges sampled; however, the message payload size induces linear growth in median delay time of approximately 1.5 ms per kB. Future NOS‐T applications can adjust the execution time scaling factor and message payload size to match operational constraints on allowable delay.","PeriodicalId":54439,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43058070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The integration of reuse components and subsystems into complex systems is continuing to increase in development programs as a method to reduce resources needed and to reduce complexity. Previous research identified that reuse can commonly be a driver of system integration failures. A previous work identified four considerations for ensuring that reuse is integrated into a system successfully. This paper adapts a framework from the discipline of Strategic Foresight that provides a fixed roadmap for addressing the considerations. The framework consists of 10 guidelines across six phases, Framing, Scanning, Forecasting, Visioning, Planning, and Acting. The framework was evaluated against 18 historical systems that failed due to reuse components or subsystems to determine if the framework would have mitigated the failure mechanisms around the reuse. The framework was found to have mitigated 100% of the failure mechanisms across the 18 systems.
{"title":"Adapting a strategic foresight framework to reuse integration","authors":"Joshua Logan Grumbach","doi":"10.1002/sys.21669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sys.21669","url":null,"abstract":"The integration of reuse components and subsystems into complex systems is continuing to increase in development programs as a method to reduce resources needed and to reduce complexity. Previous research identified that reuse can commonly be a driver of system integration failures. A previous work identified four considerations for ensuring that reuse is integrated into a system successfully. This paper adapts a framework from the discipline of Strategic Foresight that provides a fixed roadmap for addressing the considerations. The framework consists of 10 guidelines across six phases, Framing, Scanning, Forecasting, Visioning, Planning, and Acting. The framework was evaluated against 18 historical systems that failed due to reuse components or subsystems to determine if the framework would have mitigated the failure mechanisms around the reuse. The framework was found to have mitigated 100% of the failure mechanisms across the 18 systems.","PeriodicalId":54439,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47430962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) storage fires and explosions occur due to uncontrolled gas leaks and the gradual breakdown of associated safety barriers. By installing an effective safety barrier, these accidents can be greatly reduced. However, this study assesses the probability of failure of emergency safety barriers (ESBs) to help decision makers understand how they can support decisions to reduce the risks associated with LPG storage. In this context, an extension of the event tree analysis is proposed named emergency event tree analysis (EETA). The aim of this paper is to develop an integrated approach that uses interval type‐2 fuzzy sets and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and emergency event tree analysis to handle uncertainty in the failure probability assessment of emergency safety barriers (ESBs). In addition, a case study on the failure probability assessment of the emergency safety barriers of the LPG plant in Algeria based on the proposed methodology is provided and carried out to illustrate its effectiveness and feasibility. The results demonstrated the ability of interval type‐2 fuzzy sets and the AHP method to provide highly reliable results and to evaluate the failure probability of emergency safety barriers in emergencies situations. However, the classical event tree analysis (CETA) does not take into account the possibility of assessing the emergency consequences of different accident scenarios. Consequently, it only allows you to estimate the occurrence probability of accident scenarios. The results of this study show that the value of the probability of failure of the emergency safety barriers can be used to estimate the probability of occurrence of emergency consequences under different accident scenarios, improved the reliability and help prioritize emergency improvement measures. The study provides scientific and operational references for analyzing emergency consequences of the various accident scenarios in all fields such as petrochemical, maritime industry, and health occupational.
{"title":"Failure probability assessment of emergency safety barriers integrating an extension of event tree analysis and Fuzzy type‐2 analytic hierarchy process","authors":"Samia Daas, F. Innal","doi":"10.1002/sys.21668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sys.21668","url":null,"abstract":"Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) storage fires and explosions occur due to uncontrolled gas leaks and the gradual breakdown of associated safety barriers. By installing an effective safety barrier, these accidents can be greatly reduced. However, this study assesses the probability of failure of emergency safety barriers (ESBs) to help decision makers understand how they can support decisions to reduce the risks associated with LPG storage. In this context, an extension of the event tree analysis is proposed named emergency event tree analysis (EETA). The aim of this paper is to develop an integrated approach that uses interval type‐2 fuzzy sets and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and emergency event tree analysis to handle uncertainty in the failure probability assessment of emergency safety barriers (ESBs). In addition, a case study on the failure probability assessment of the emergency safety barriers of the LPG plant in Algeria based on the proposed methodology is provided and carried out to illustrate its effectiveness and feasibility. The results demonstrated the ability of interval type‐2 fuzzy sets and the AHP method to provide highly reliable results and to evaluate the failure probability of emergency safety barriers in emergencies situations. However, the classical event tree analysis (CETA) does not take into account the possibility of assessing the emergency consequences of different accident scenarios. Consequently, it only allows you to estimate the occurrence probability of accident scenarios. The results of this study show that the value of the probability of failure of the emergency safety barriers can be used to estimate the probability of occurrence of emergency consequences under different accident scenarios, improved the reliability and help prioritize emergency improvement measures. The study provides scientific and operational references for analyzing emergency consequences of the various accident scenarios in all fields such as petrochemical, maritime industry, and health occupational.","PeriodicalId":54439,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46930048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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