Past research on the profitability of precision phosphorus (P) application has used a small number of fields and a short time frame. Data on grid-sampled fields provided by producers are used to define the distribution of phosphorus within fields. Expected yields and net present value (NPV) are simulated to compare variable and uniform rate P. The highest NPV used a variable rate that changed each year based on yield and predicted carryover. A variable rate using the same rates for 4 years was inferior to simply applying a little extra P at a uniform rate.
{"title":"Using Grid Soil Sampling to Determine Profit Maximizing Phosphorus Application Rates in Wheat","authors":"B. Mills, B. Brorsen, D. B. Arnall","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.304775","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.304775","url":null,"abstract":"Past research on the profitability of precision phosphorus (P) application has used a small number of fields and a short time frame. Data on grid-sampled fields provided by producers are used to define the distribution of phosphorus within fields. Expected yields and net present value (NPV) are simulated to compare variable and uniform rate P. The highest NPV used a variable rate that changed each year based on yield and predicted carryover. A variable rate using the same rates for 4 years was inferior to simply applying a little extra P at a uniform rate.","PeriodicalId":54890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68539473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Feedlot managers make difficult culling decisions using their best subjective judgment together with advice from animal health professionals. Using routinely collected operational feedlot data and five well-known classification methods, we construct mortality predictive models to aid managers in making objective culling decisions. Simulation results suggest that net return per head for calves having been treated at least once for any health incident would increase on average by $14.01 if the best-performing model were used as a culling decision aid. The probability of a positive return is 60.9%. Using cost-sensitive learning, the average value may increase to $45.27/head.
{"title":"Improving Feedlot Profitability Using Operational Data in Mortality Prediction Modeling","authors":"R. Feuz, Kyle D. Feuz, M. Johnson","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.304772","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.304772","url":null,"abstract":"Feedlot managers make difficult culling decisions using their best subjective judgment together with advice from animal health professionals. Using routinely collected operational feedlot data and five well-known classification methods, we construct mortality predictive models to aid managers in making objective culling decisions. Simulation results suggest that net return per head for calves having been treated at least once for any health incident would increase on average by $14.01 if the best-performing model were used as a culling decision aid. The probability of a positive return is 60.9%. Using cost-sensitive learning, the average value may increase to $45.27/head.","PeriodicalId":54890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68539795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Double or Nothing: Impacts of Warming on Crop Quantity, Quality, and Revenue","authors":"A. Ramsey, Jesse Tack, M. Balota","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.307462","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.307462","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68540388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Packer Procurement, Structural Change, and Moving Average Basis Forecasts: Lessons from the Fed Dairy Cattle Industry","authors":"Christopher C. Pudenz, L. Schulz","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.304769","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.304769","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68539502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using a first-difference econometric model, we estimate an aggregate demand model for assessing the determinants of the quantity of visits to the 47 national parks in the continental United States. The estimated model was then used to project visitation to these parks from the 2016 base year to 2026. Total visitation could see an average increase of about 1.2 million visitors per year through 2026, suggesting that congestion problems already experienced at many parks may get worse. Congestion and overuse strain already limited operation and maintenance budgets and can lead to environmental damage to park sites and reductions in visitor satisfaction.
{"title":"What Does the Future Hold for U.S. National Park Visitation? Estimation and Assessment of Demand Determinants and New Projections","authors":"J. Bergstrom, M. Stowers, J. Shonkwiler","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.298433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.298433","url":null,"abstract":"Using a first-difference econometric model, we estimate an aggregate demand model for assessing the determinants of the quantity of visits to the 47 national parks in the continental United States. The estimated model was then used to project visitation to these parks from the 2016 base year to 2026. Total visitation could see an average increase of about 1.2 million visitors per year through 2026, suggesting that congestion problems already experienced at many parks may get worse. Congestion and overuse strain already limited operation and maintenance budgets and can lead to environmental damage to park sites and reductions in visitor satisfaction.","PeriodicalId":54890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68536518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We determined how reproductive failure impacts the long-term profitability of beef cows in spring and fall-calving herds. Simulation models were established to generate distributions of net present value, payback periods, and breakeven prices of calves when a dam fails to wean zero, one, or two calves over her life. Results indicate that giving a dam another calving opportunity after failing to wean a calf would likely result in her being unprofitable. A producer would be better off selling the open dam than giving her another chance to breed. This illustrates the value in selecting replacement heifers based on fertility.
{"title":"Reproductive Failure and Long-Term Profitability of Spring- and Fall-Calving Beef Cows","authors":"C. Boyer, A. Griffith, K. DeLong","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.298435","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.298435","url":null,"abstract":"We determined how reproductive failure impacts the long-term profitability of beef cows in spring and fall-calving herds. Simulation models were established to generate distributions of net present value, payback periods, and breakeven prices of calves when a dam fails to wean zero, one, or two calves over her life. Results indicate that giving a dam another calving opportunity after failing to wean a calf would likely result in her being unprofitable. A producer would be better off selling the open dam than giving her another chance to breed. This illustrates the value in selecting replacement heifers based on fertility.","PeriodicalId":54890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68537290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Feeding nine billion people by 2050, yield resiliency, climate change, and remaining economically competitive have received significant attention in the literature. Technological change in agriculture will largely dictate our ability to meet these challenges. Although there is significant literature on technological change in U.S. crop yields, very little has been done with Canadian yields. Moreover, the adoption and effect of various technologies and their interaction with climate tend to be crop-region specific. To this end, we model the changing nature of county-level yields for barley, canola, corn, oats, soybean and wheat in Canada. We use mixtures to allow and test for heterogeneous rates of technological change within the yield data generating process. While we tend to find increasing but heterogeneous rates of technological change, increasing and asymmetric yield volatility, and increasing absolute but decreasing relative yield resiliency, our results do differ across crops and exhibit spatial bifurcations within a crop. Using a standard attribution model, we find changing climate has differing effects across crops. We also consider the public funding implications for Canadian Business Risk Management programs.
{"title":"On the Changing Nature of Canadian Crop Yield Distributions","authors":"Horlick Ng, A. Ker","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.302465","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.302465","url":null,"abstract":"Feeding nine billion people by 2050, yield resiliency, climate change, and remaining economically competitive have received significant attention in the literature. Technological change in agriculture will largely dictate our ability to meet these challenges. Although there is significant literature on technological change in U.S. crop yields, very little has been done with Canadian yields. Moreover, the adoption and effect of various technologies and their interaction with climate tend to be crop-region specific. To this end, we model the changing nature of county-level yields for barley, canola, corn, oats, soybean and wheat in Canada. We use mixtures to allow and test for heterogeneous rates of technological change within the yield data generating process. While we tend to find increasing but heterogeneous rates of technological change, increasing and asymmetric yield volatility, and increasing absolute but decreasing relative yield resiliency, our results do differ across crops and exhibit spatial bifurcations within a crop. Using a standard attribution model, we find changing climate has differing effects across crops. We also consider the public funding implications for Canadian Business Risk Management programs.","PeriodicalId":54890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68538052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Water scarcity is becoming more acute, necessitating better understanding of farmer adoption of improved irrigation technologies. Using data from the national 2013 Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey, this study employs a multilevel modeling approach to analyze irrigation decisions. The variation in pressure irrigation adoption is mainly accounted for by state-level factors, while adoption of scientific scheduling practices is more associated with farm-level factors. Adoption increases with larger acreage, groundwater use, information sources other than neighbors, and recent higher temperatures. Adoption is negatively associated with on-farm surface water and barriers related to increased costs, management time, and time horizon.
{"title":"Adoption of Pressure Irrigation Systems and Scientific Irrigation Scheduling Practices by U.S. Farmers: An Application of Multilevel Models","authors":"Yubing Fan, L. McCann","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.302459","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.302459","url":null,"abstract":"Water scarcity is becoming more acute, necessitating better understanding of farmer adoption of improved irrigation technologies. Using data from the national 2013 Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey, this study employs a multilevel modeling approach to analyze irrigation decisions. The variation in pressure irrigation adoption is mainly accounted for by state-level factors, while adoption of scientific scheduling practices is more associated with farm-level factors. Adoption increases with larger acreage, groundwater use, information sources other than neighbors, and recent higher temperatures. Adoption is negatively associated with on-farm surface water and barriers related to increased costs, management time, and time horizon.","PeriodicalId":54890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68538131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Contracting firms attach conditions to producer contracts. These conditions can be attached to inputs, output, or both inputs and outputs. This study examines the impact of the choice of contract farming (CF) conditions on the productivity and profitability of ginger growers. Using farm-level data from Nepal collected in 2015 from 611 sampled farmers and the selectivity-corrected multinomial endogenous switching regression (MESR) method, the study found that ginger growers increased yield by 16%, 19%, and 15% by participating in CF with input conditions (IC), with output conditions (OC), and with input and output conditions (BC), respectively. Additionally, ginger growers increased profits by 46%, 63%, and 40% by participating in CF with IC, OC, and BC, respectively. The study found that the price difference in spot and contract markets, distance to market and transportation facilities, and farm location are important factors affecting participation in any form of CF (IC, OC, and BC). Finally, smallholders should be encouraged to adopt CF with OC.
{"title":"Choice of Contract Farming Strategies, Productivity, and Profits: Evidence from High-Value Crop Production","authors":"A. Khanal, A. Mishra, Joaquín Mayorga, S. Hirsch","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.303604","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.303604","url":null,"abstract":"Contracting firms attach conditions to producer contracts. These conditions can be attached to inputs, output, or both inputs and outputs. This study examines the impact of the choice of contract farming (CF) conditions on the productivity and profitability of ginger growers. Using farm-level data from Nepal collected in 2015 from 611 sampled farmers and the selectivity-corrected multinomial endogenous switching regression (MESR) method, the study found that ginger growers increased yield by 16%, 19%, and 15% by participating in CF with input conditions (IC), with output conditions (OC), and with input and output conditions (BC), respectively. Additionally, ginger growers increased profits by 46%, 63%, and 40% by participating in CF with IC, OC, and BC, respectively. The study found that the price difference in spot and contract markets, distance to market and transportation facilities, and farm location are important factors affecting participation in any form of CF (IC, OC, and BC). Finally, smallholders should be encouraged to adopt CF with OC.","PeriodicalId":54890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68539075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"California's Climate Policy and the Dairy Manufacturing Industry: How Does a Federal Milk Marketing Order Matter?","authors":"Wei Zhang","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.305224","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.305224","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68539517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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