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Explainable machine learning models to predict the heat performance of energy tunnels 可解释的机器学习模型来预测能量隧道的热性能
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.geothermics.2025.103508
Lifei Zheng , Wenbo Yu , Zhi Chen , Sheng Yang , Zhiying Zhong , Henglin Xiao
To address the challenge of rapidly and accurately quantifying the heat performance of energy tunnels under unknown operational conditions, this study proposes an intelligent predictive framework that integrates multi-physics simulation and explainable machine learning. A validated three-dimensional multi-physics model was developed in COMSOL to generate a dataset comprising 1024 simulation samples covering ten key operational parameters. Nine machine learning algorithms were employed to construct predictive models for the heat performance of energy tunnels, and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) were applied to enhance model interpretability. Results demonstrate that the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model achieved the highest predictive accuracy (R² = 0.961), while the Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) model exhibited the lowest average absolute error (AE) on the test set (AEavg = 2.76 W/m²). The tunnel air temperature (Ta), fluid velocity (Vf), and air convective heat transfer coefficient (h) were identified as the most influential factors affecting the heat performance, with significant interactions observed among multiple parameters. This study provides a reliable data-driven basis for the intelligent prediction and optimization of energy tunnel heat performance.
为了解决在未知运行条件下快速准确量化能量隧道热性能的挑战,本研究提出了一个集成多物理场模拟和可解释机器学习的智能预测框架。在COMSOL中开发了一个经过验证的三维多物理场模型,生成了包含1024个模拟样本的数据集,涵盖了10个关键操作参数。采用9种机器学习算法构建能量隧道热性能预测模型,并采用Shapley加性解释(SHAP)增强模型可解释性。结果表明,支持向量回归(SVR)模型的预测精度最高(R²= 0.961),而反向传播神经网络(BPNN)模型在测试集上的平均绝对误差(AE)最低(AEavg = 2.76 W/m²)。隧道空气温度(Ta)、流体速度(Vf)和空气对流换热系数(h)是影响传热性能的主要因素,多个参数之间存在显著的相互作用。该研究为能量隧道热性能的智能预测和优化提供了可靠的数据驱动依据。
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引用次数: 0
Machine learning for fault-controlled geothermal systems exploration in Chenzhou and Huizhou region, Southeast China 机器学习在郴州和惠州地区断控地热系统勘探中的应用
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.geothermics.2025.103507
Yuhzong Liao , Guiling Wang , Wei Zhang , Hanxiong Zhang , Jiyun Liang , Yufei Xi
This study investigates fault-controlled geothermal systems in southeastern China, focusing on representative regions in Hunan, Guangdong, and Jiangxi provinces. A machine learning approach—non-negative matrix factorization with k-means clustering (NMFk)—was applied to classify geothermal water types and delineate favorable exploration zones based on hydrochemical composition, flow rate, heat flow, and fault proximity. Geothermal waters were classified into three types with distinct geochemical and geological attributes: Type A, Type B, and Type C. Representative geothermal fields—Nuanshui (Type A), Longmen and Reshui (Type B), and Chengkou (Type C)—were selected to validate the classification and analyze reservoir characteristics and genetic mechanisms. Type B geothermal water exhibits the highest exploration potential, characterized by deep circulation (1900–5300 m), high reservoir temperatures (66–143 °C), strong confinement, and enrichment in Na⁺ and Li⁺. Its formation is primarily controlled by NW-trending faults and high heat-producing granites. Type C geothermal water shows moderate potential, with the highest heat flow (83 mW/m²), deep circulation (3500–5400 m), and elevated temperatures (109–127 °C), despite lower flow rates. It is hosted in granitic reservoirs associated with NE–N-trending faults. In contrast, Type A demonstrates the lowest geothermal potential, featuring shallow circulation (900–2100 m), lower temperatures (42–75 °C), high flow rates, and enrichment in Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, and Sr²⁺, reflecting strong meteoric recharge and limited geochemical evolution. A conceptual model is proposed in which meteoric water infiltrates through fault zones, absorbs heat during deep circulation within granitic or carbonate rocks, and ascends to form geothermal reservoirs or surface springs. The classification results align well with spatial patterns of geothermal favorability, offering a robust framework for geothermal resource assessment and supporting sustainable development strategies in southeastern China.
本文以湖南、广东、江西等地为研究对象,研究了中国东南部的断层控制地热系统。基于水化学成分、流速、热流和断层邻近度,采用机器学习方法-非负矩阵分解与k-均值聚类(NMFk) -对地热水类型进行分类,并圈定有利勘探带。选取具有代表性的暖水(A型)、龙门热水(B型)和城口(C型)地热田进行分类验证,分析储层特征和成因机制。B型地热水具有深部循环(1900 ~ 5300 m)、储层温度高(66 ~ 143℃)、封闭性强、Na +和Li +富集等特点,勘探潜力最大。其形成主要受北西向断裂和高产热花岗岩控制。C型地热水显示出中等潜力,尽管流量较低,但热流最高(83 mW/m²),深层循环(3500-5400 m),温度较高(109-127°C)。它赋存于与ne - n向断裂有关的花岗质储层中。A型地热潜力最低,环流浅(900 ~ 2100 m),温度较低(42 ~ 75℃),流量大,且Mg +、Ca +和Sr +富集,反映了强烈的大气补给和有限的地球化学演化。提出了一种气象水通过断裂带渗透,在花岗岩或碳酸盐岩深层循环中吸收热量,并上升形成地热储层或地表温泉的概念模型。分类结果与地热有利度的空间格局吻合较好,为地热资源评价和支持中国东南部可持续发展战略提供了强有力的框架。
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引用次数: 0
Thermal performance assessment of coupled soil stratification and groundwater advection effects on vertical borehole heat exchanger 土壤分层与地下水平流耦合作用对垂直钻孔换热器热性能的影响评价
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.geothermics.2025.103510
Linlin Zhang , Dongyang Fan , Yanbin Li , Tianhao Yuan , Jun Chen
The growing interest in geothermal energy as a low-carbon alternative underscores the need for precise thermal characterization of subsurface environments. To enhance the design accuracy and operational reliability of ground source heat pump systems under complex geological conditions, this study builds an improved model that simultaneously accounts for soil stratification and groundwater advection to evaluate the thermal performance of borehole heat exchangers. A three-dimensional numerical model was established in ANSYS to simulate coupled heat transfer within multi-layered soil under summer-mode operation and was validated against in-situ thermal response test data, demonstrating errors below 5 %. Results indicate that neglecting soil stratification can lead to deviations of up to 18.6 % in thermal influence distance and 8.4 % in heat transfer efficiency, potentially risking underestimation of borehole spacing and system performance. Moreover, incorporating groundwater advection in the 3rd soil layer enhances convective heat transport, lowering outlet water temperatures by 0.6 °C and improving heat transfer efficiency by 40.96 %, while the proposed groundwater advection influence rate reached a maximum of 10.97 %. These findings demonstrate that both stratification and advection affect temperature distribution and thermal performance of soil, offering crucial insights for optimizing borehole design, spacing, and long-term GSHP operations in heterogeneous aquifer environments. This work provides critical insights for optimizing ground source heat pump systems under complex geological conditions, enabling more accurate heat exchange predictions and efficient multi-borehole layouts in practical applications.
地热能作为一种低碳替代能源的兴趣日益增长,这强调了对地下环境进行精确热表征的必要性。为了提高复杂地质条件下地源热泵系统的设计精度和运行可靠性,本研究建立了同时考虑土壤分层和地下水平流的改进模型来评价井下换热器的热性能。在ANSYS软件中建立了多层土壤夏季模式下的耦合传热三维数值模型,并与现场热响应试验数据进行了验证,误差小于5%。结果表明,忽略土壤分层会导致热影响距离偏差高达18.6%,换热效率偏差高达8.4%,有可能低估钻孔间距和系统性能。此外,在第3层土壤中加入地下水平流增强了对流热输运,使出水温度降低0.6°C,换热效率提高40.96%,而地下水平流影响率最大达到10.97%。这些发现表明,分层和平流都会影响土壤的温度分布和热性能,为优化非均匀含水层环境中的井眼设计、井距和地源热泵的长期运行提供了重要的见解。这项工作为优化复杂地质条件下的地源热泵系统提供了重要见解,在实际应用中实现了更准确的热交换预测和高效的多井布局。
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引用次数: 0
Method for imitating scale formation in the Takigami binary power plant in Oita, Japan: Establishment of primary synthesis conditions 模拟日本大分县泷上二电厂结垢的方法:初步合成条件的建立
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.geothermics.2025.103504
Shota Ikemoto , Htoo Nay Wunn , Shinichi Motoda , Azusa Wada , Hirono Okano , Shinya Ui , Motoaki Morita
The advantage of suitable anti-scaling technologies for individual geothermal plants would benefit from shorter development periods, making it necessary to improve the precision in evaluating a scaling technology through laboratory testing. This study focuses on developing a technology to replicate the scale formed in the Takigami binary geothermal plant. The artificial scale obtained was compared with an actual scale collected during jet washing that followed the chemical washing process in the evaporator of the Takigami binary power plant. The artificial scale was synthesized in controlled environments by removing dissolved oxygen and introducing carbon dioxide (CO2) to simulate geothermal conditions. The artificial scale resembled the natural scale, predominantly comprising silica and metal silicates. Although the scale formed in the Takigami binary geothermal plant differed from the artificial scale in terms of particle size, the size of the dispersion particles in the geothermal brine was similar to that of the dispersion particles in the synthesized solution. In addition, the amounts of enriched elements differed from those in the natural scale, with higher aluminum and lower calcium concentrations. These discrepancies highlight the need for additional adjustments in synthesis conditions to more precisely replicate the natural scaling environment. We illustrate how laboratory-scale synthesis can help successfully imitate the intricate natural scaling processes, providing valuable insights for enhancing scaling management in geothermal facilities. Optimizing the gas and chemical inputs may help further improve the precision of these simulations. The interactions between the material and solution particles need careful consideration.
适合于个别地热发电厂的防结垢技术的优势将得益于较短的开发周期,因此有必要通过实验室测试提高评价结垢技术的精度。本研究的重点是开发一种技术来复制Takigami二元地热发电厂形成的规模。将所得的人工水垢与Takigami电厂蒸发器化学洗涤后射流洗涤过程中收集的实际水垢进行了比较。通过去除溶解氧和引入二氧化碳(CO2)来模拟地热条件,在受控环境下合成人工水垢。人工水垢与天然水垢相似,主要由二氧化硅和金属硅酸盐组成。虽然Takigami二元地热发电厂形成的水垢在粒径上与人工水垢不同,但地热卤水中分散颗粒的粒径与合成溶液中分散颗粒的粒径相似。此外,富集元素的数量与自然尺度不同,铝浓度较高,钙浓度较低。这些差异强调需要在合成条件下进行额外的调整,以更精确地复制自然缩放环境。我们说明了实验室规模的合成如何帮助成功模仿复杂的自然结垢过程,为加强地热设施的结垢管理提供了有价值的见解。优化气体和化学物质的输入可能有助于进一步提高这些模拟的精度。材料和溶液粒子之间的相互作用需要仔细考虑。
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引用次数: 0
Geological controls on heat flow distribution in the southeastern Western Siberian Basin: Insights from thermal modeling 西伯利亚盆地东南部热流分布的地质控制:来自热模拟的见解
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.geothermics.2025.103505
Daniil S. Krutenko, Margarita F. Krutenko, Yuriy V. Kolmakov
While geothermal potential is typically assessed in tectonically active regions, sedimentary basins in stable areas also represent significant geothermal resources. Accurate assessment of geothermal potential in sedimentary basins requires understanding thermal field heterogeneity – the central research problem addressed in this work. We analyze a heat flow map of the southeastern Western Siberia sedimentary basin, derived from 433 well-based calculations.
To determine the heat flow density at the basement-sediment interface, we applied Valery Isaev's methodology via the 1D thermal modelling program Teplodialog. This technique is founded on a numerical solution of the heat conduction equation for a horizontally layered solid body with a mobile upper boundary. The resulting data were interpolated using the Kriging geostatistical method to generate a schematic heat flow map. The constructed map (contour interval 2 mW·m⁻²) demonstrates reliability through a strong correlation of its anomalous zones with data from prior studies.
Our findings reveal that heat flow distribution in sedimentary basins fundamentally correlates with the age of the last tectonomagmatic event – the primary control governing thermal patterns. This relationship explains observed connections between heat flow and both fault density (positive correlation in zones of recent tectonomagmatic activity) and basement rock composition (inherited from tectonic evolution history). Local variations in rock thermal properties account for only minor heat flow differences within coeval tectonic units.
虽然地热潜力通常在构造活跃地区进行评估,但稳定地区的沉积盆地也代表着重要的地热资源。准确评估沉积盆地的地热潜力需要了解热场的非均质性,这是本工作的中心研究问题。我们分析了西西伯利亚东南部沉积盆地的热流图,该热流图是由433个基于井的计算得出的。为了确定基底-沉积物界面的热流密度,我们通过一维热模拟程序Teplodialog应用Valery Isaev的方法。该方法建立在具有可移动上边界的水平层状固体热传导方程的数值解的基础上。利用克里格地统计学方法对所得数据进行插值,生成热流示意图。构建的地图(等高线间隔2 mW·m⁻²)通过其异常区与先前研究数据的强相关性证明了其可靠性。我们的研究结果表明,沉积盆地的热流分布与最后一次构造岩浆事件的年龄基本相关,这是控制热模式的主要因素。这种关系解释了观察到的热流与断层密度(在最近的构造岩浆活动区)和基底岩石组成(从构造演化史继承)之间的联系。岩石热性质的局部变化只能说明同时期构造单元内热流的微小差异。
{"title":"Geological controls on heat flow distribution in the southeastern Western Siberian Basin: Insights from thermal modeling","authors":"Daniil S. Krutenko,&nbsp;Margarita F. Krutenko,&nbsp;Yuriy V. Kolmakov","doi":"10.1016/j.geothermics.2025.103505","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geothermics.2025.103505","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While geothermal potential is typically assessed in tectonically active regions, sedimentary basins in stable areas also represent significant geothermal resources. Accurate assessment of geothermal potential in sedimentary basins requires understanding thermal field heterogeneity – the central research problem addressed in this work. We analyze a heat flow map of the southeastern Western Siberia sedimentary basin, derived from 433 well-based calculations.</div><div>To determine the heat flow density at the basement-sediment interface, we applied Valery Isaev's methodology via the 1D thermal modelling program Teplodialog. This technique is founded on a numerical solution of the heat conduction equation for a horizontally layered solid body with a mobile upper boundary. The resulting data were interpolated using the Kriging geostatistical method to generate a schematic heat flow map. The constructed map (contour interval 2 mW·m⁻²) demonstrates reliability through a strong correlation of its anomalous zones with data from prior studies.</div><div>Our findings reveal that heat flow distribution in sedimentary basins fundamentally correlates with the age of the last tectonomagmatic event – the primary control governing thermal patterns. This relationship explains observed connections between heat flow and both fault density (positive correlation in zones of recent tectonomagmatic activity) and basement rock composition (inherited from tectonic evolution history). Local variations in rock thermal properties account for only minor heat flow differences within coeval tectonic units.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55095,"journal":{"name":"Geothermics","volume":"134 ","pages":"Article 103505"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145227794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Marine geothermal study in shallow stratigraphic wells on the Kara sea shelf: high-resolution thermal conductivity and temperature data 喀拉海陆架浅层地层井的海洋地热研究:高分辨率导热系数和温度数据
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.geothermics.2025.103503
Y.A. Popov, E.M. Chekhonin, E.G. Savelev, R.A. Romushkevich, M.Y. Spasennykh
For the first time in the marine geothermal research practice, multiscale rock heterogeneity and anisotropy were studied with continuous thermal property profiling on whole core column from shallow stratigraphic wells on the Kara Sea shelf that improved heat flow assessment. The thermophysical core logging technology, which allows specialists to provide continuous non-destructive profiling of rock thermal properties with spatial resolution of 1 mm, was utilized for the first time in marine wells. This approach yielded high-quality data on thermal conductivity, volumetric heat capacity, and thermal diffusivity for all drilled 916 full-size core samples, accounting for their thermal heterogeneity and anisotropy. Additionally, 30 core samples were selected based on thermal profiling results for extended thermophysical studies: 25 samples were scanned after additional saturation, 5 samples were prepared and studied within the temperature range from 20 to 80 °C using the divided bar technique, and 5 samples were studied at increased up to 5 MPa uniaxial pressure. Heat flow was estimated using the equivalent thermal conductivity, which was determined accounting for each core sample length, macro- and microanisotropy of the rocks, the core decompression, the drying of samples during transportation and storage, and thermobaric conditions of the drilled sediments. The research aims to create a database on geothermal characteristics to improve the reliability of hydrocarbon exploration and development on the studied territory of the Kara Sea shelf. The applied technology for experimental geothermal research allows specialists for extensive and more representative studies of the subsurface geothermal characteristics on the shelf, compared to the traditional approaches that rely on measurements in near-bottom sediments.
在海洋地热研究实践中,首次通过对喀拉海陆架浅层地层井全岩心柱连续热物性剖面研究了岩石的多尺度非均质性和各向异性,改进了热流评价。热物理岩心测井技术,使专家能够提供1毫米空间分辨率的岩石热特性连续无损剖面,首次应用于海井。该方法获得了所有916个全尺寸岩心样品的导热系数、体积热容量和热扩散率的高质量数据,说明了它们的热非均质性和各向异性。此外,根据热剖面结果选择30个岩心样品进行扩展热物理研究:25个样品在额外饱和后进行扫描,5个样品在20 - 80°C的温度范围内使用分棒技术进行制备和研究,5个样品在单轴压力增加至5 MPa的情况下进行研究。根据岩心样品长度、岩石的宏观和微观各向异性、岩心减压、运输和储存过程中样品的干燥以及钻探沉积物的热压条件,利用等效导热系数估算了热流。该研究旨在建立地热特征数据库,以提高喀拉海陆架研究区域油气勘探开发的可靠性。与依赖于近海底沉积物测量的传统方法相比,实验地热研究的应用技术使专家能够对大陆架上的地下地热特征进行广泛和更具代表性的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Geothermal energy accumulation mechanism and development mode in a deep mine: A case study 深部矿井地热能积累机制与开发模式研究
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.geothermics.2025.103502
Zheng Zhen , Kun Yu , Zhijun Wan , Yiwen Ju , Zhenzi Yu , Zhuting Wang , Bo Zhang , Peng Shi , Zhehan Sun , Jiakun Lv
The deep mine holds substantial geothermal energy and presents favorable conditions for exploitation and utilization but lack effective engineering applications. The concept of “geothermal energy accumulation mechanism - location of reservoirs - development planning integrated with the mine system - utilization and economic assessment” was proposed and applied in this study. Geochemical studies of geothermal water have indicated the main type is Na-Ca-HCO3-SO4. The temperature of the thermal reservoir is 69.75 °C. Isotope indicators (δ18O and δD) suggest that the main source of geothermal water is meteoric water. Combined with numerical simulation to analyze the geothermal energy accumulation mechanism of No.10 mine. Surface limestone outcrops and faults constitute the water-conducting seepage channel, and geothermal water is concentrated in Likou syncline’s axis to form the thermal reservoir. The water-rich area was identified using underground transient electromagnetic method. A geothermal water development and utilization system was established based on the mine layout, which can meet 83,125 m2 of heating. The net income from the geothermal water development and utilization project is $ 412,990 per year. Compared with coal-fired heating, it can reduce CO2 emissions by 9471 tons/year, thereby contributing to a cleaner transition for the coal mine.
深井地热能储量丰富,具有良好的开发利用条件,但缺乏有效的工程应用。提出并应用了“地热能蓄能机理—储层选址—与矿山系统相结合的开发规划—利用与经济评价”的概念。地热水地球化学研究表明,地热水主要类型为Na-Ca-HCO3-SO4。热储层温度为69.75℃。同位素(δ18O和δD)指标表明地热水的主要来源为大气降水。结合数值模拟分析了十矿地热能积累机理。地表灰岩露头和断层构成导水渗流通道,地热水集中在利口向斜轴线形成热储。利用地下瞬变电磁法对富水区进行了识别。根据矿山布局,建立了地热水开发利用系统,可满足83,125 m2采暖需求。地热水开发利用项目的净收益为每年412,990美元。与燃煤供热相比,每年可减少二氧化碳排放9471吨,有利于煤矿向更清洁的转型。
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引用次数: 0
Geothermal-Flowloop (GFL): Investigating multiphase flows under geothermal conditions 地热循环(GFL):研究地热条件下的多相流动
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.geothermics.2025.103500
Adolph Bravo Jr. , Erlend Straume , Ben Robinson , Namrata Kale , Harry Froment , Amir Shamsa , Maria Eleni Mitzithra , Barnaby E. King , Andri Stefánsson
The design and operation of geothermal wells, pipelines, and associated infrastructure depend on accurate analysis and understanding of multiphase flow behavior. While a variety of multiphase flow models are available, most are based on experimental data obtained under near-ambient conditions for air–water or oil–gas systems. Applying these models to high-temperature geothermal fluids potentially results in substantial inaccuracies, highlighting the need to investigate multiphase flow under conditions relevant to geothermal applications. Here we introduce the Geothermal-Flowloop (GFL)—a novel, purpose-built facility for direct observation and analysis of multiphase flow in geothermal fluids at representative temperatures and pressures. The system enables controlled multiphase flow experiments with water or brine and gases at temperatures up to 200 °C and pressures up to 40 bar. Equipped with an optical window, hydrophone, and gamma densitometers, the GFL allows real-time and direct visualization of fluid flow behavior including identification of flow regimes, cavitation, slip, liquid holdup and void fraction determination. The GFL also offers a platform for evaluating emerging technologies with potential geothermal applications. By facilitating detailed investigations under realistic operating conditions, the facility contributes to the advancement of geothermal infrastructure design and performance optimization.
地热井、管道和相关基础设施的设计和运行依赖于对多相流行为的准确分析和理解。虽然有各种各样的多相流模型,但大多数都是基于在空气-水或油气系统的近环境条件下获得的实验数据。将这些模型应用于高温地热流体可能会导致大量的不准确性,这突出了在地热应用相关条件下研究多相流的必要性。在这里,我们介绍了地热流环(GFL)——一种新型的、专门建造的设备,用于直接观察和分析地热流体在代表性温度和压力下的多相流动。该系统可以在温度高达200°C,压力高达40 bar的条件下进行水或盐水和气体的控制多相流实验。GFL配备了光学窗口、水听器和伽马密度计,可以实时、直接地可视化流体流动行为,包括流动状态的识别、空化、滑移、含液率和空隙率的测定。GFL还为评估具有潜在地热应用的新兴技术提供了一个平台。通过在实际运行条件下进行详细调查,该设施有助于推进地热基础设施的设计和性能优化。
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引用次数: 0
Geothermal resource development and reservoir dynamics in Tianjin, China 天津地热资源开发与储层动态
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.geothermics.2025.103479
Xiaoxiao Yin , Bowen Xu , Jian Shen , Zhenhai Zong , Guangyao Zhang , Zhilong Liu , Jinghong Hu
Geothermal reservoir dynamic monitoring and research serve as the key scientific foundation for optimizing resource development, ensuring sustainable utilization, and mitigating exploitation risks. This paper systematically compiles nearly 50 years of geothermal utilization demand and management policies in Tianjin, along with data on application scenarios, extraction/injection volumes, thermal reservoir water levels, hydrochemical components, wellhead temperatures, and thermal reservoir temperatures for both porous (e.g., Guantao Formation) and fractured (e.g., Wumishan Formation) reservoirs. It analyzes the relationships among market demand, policy regulation, and the dynamic characteristics of reservoir resources. The findings indicate: (1) Reduced consumption is the direct cause of the shift from declining to recovering water levels. Although porous and fractured reservoirs respond synchronously, their patterns differ. In porous reservoirs, abrupt shutdowns of unlicensed wells led to a sharp decline in non-reinjected extraction, causing water levels to transition from rapid decline to rapid and then slow recovery (a "V"-shaped response). In contrast, fractured reservoirs exhibited gradual consumption reduction due to sustained reinjection increases, resulting in a shift from slow decline to slow and then rapid recovery (a "U"-shaped response). (2) Hydrochemical components in both reservoirs remained stable, with no significant alteration to the subsurface chemical environment, though calcium carbonate scaling in some wells impaired reinjection efficiency. (3) Overly low reinjection temperatures in porous reservoirs risked cold front migration from injection wells, posing thermal breakthrough threats, whereas fractured reservoirs maintained stable temperatures—especially near deep conductive faults, demonstrating high exploitation potential due to deep heat sources. Tianjin’s large-scale reinjection practices hold significant implications for reestablishing thermal reservoir equilibrium, offering valuable insights for sustainable geothermal development in similar regions.
地热储层动态监测与研究是优化资源开发、保证资源可持续利用、降低开发风险的重要科学依据。本文系统整理了天津市近50年来的地热利用需求和管理政策,以及多孔(如馆陶组)和裂缝(如雾雾山组)储层的应用场景、抽注量、热储水位、水化学成分、井口温度和热储温度等数据。分析了市场需求、政策调控与库区资源动态特征之间的关系。研究结果表明:(1)耗水量的减少是水位由下降向恢复转变的直接原因。尽管多孔和裂缝性储层的响应是同步的,但它们的模式不同。在多孔油藏中,未经许可的井突然关闭导致非回注采收率急剧下降,导致水位从快速下降过渡到快速恢复,然后缓慢恢复(“V”型响应)。相比之下,裂缝性油藏由于持续的回注增加,消耗逐渐减少,导致从缓慢下降到缓慢然后快速恢复(“U”型响应)。(2)两个储层的水化学成分保持稳定,地下化学环境没有明显变化,但部分井的碳酸钙结垢影响了回注效率。(3)多孔储层过低的回注温度有冷锋从注入井运移的危险,造成热突破威胁,而裂缝性储层温度保持稳定,特别是在深部导电断层附近,由于深部热源的存在,具有很高的开发潜力。天津的大规模回注实践对重建热储平衡具有重要意义,为类似地区的可持续地热开发提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
The evidence of H-O-C isotopes in response to earthquake and the precursor anomaly index: A case study of geothermal fluids in the Xianshuihe fault H-O-C同位素对地震的响应证据及前兆异常指数——以鲜水河断裂地热流体为例
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.geothermics.2025.103491
Yi Yu , Hao Song , Jinlong Liang , Xuemin Liu , Zebin Luo , Jing Zhao , Zhipeng Li , Jinyong Xu
Earthquake forecasting remains challenging due to the limited understanding of reliable precursory signals. While hydrochemical anomalies in geothermal fluids prior to seismic events show promise, the response mechanism of H-O-C isotopes (δD, δ18O, δ13C) during seismogenesis and their quantitative links to tectonic processes are poorly constrained. We conducted continuous hydrogeochemical monitoring and stable isotope mass spectrometry (δD, δ18O, δ13CDIC) on geothermal fluids in the seismically active Xianshuihe fault zone (Western Sichuan, China). Time-series data from two hot springs (LTGS and EDQP) during the 2022∼2023 aftershock sequence of the Ms6.8 Luding earthquake were statistically analyzed using a Z-score method to quantify precursor anomalies. (1) Pre-seismic δD and δ18O exhibited rise-fall trends, driven by fracture-enhanced fluid mixing and water-rock interaction. δD anomalies were uniquely sensitive to earthquakes Ms ≥ 5.5. (2) Elevated δ13C originated from thermal decomposition of deep carbonate during tectonic stress accumulation, releasing 13C-enriched CO2. Subsequent dissolution and isotopic exchange impart this high-δ13C signature to dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC); (3) A Z-score ≥ 2 effectively discriminated precursor anomalies for Ms > 4.0 earthquakes, with precursor response times of 10 days to 2 months. This study establishes H-O-C isotopes as dynamic indicators of seismogenic processes and proposes a Z-score method for short-imminent earthquake forecasting. Integrating these indicators into multi-parameter monitoring networks, contributing to the development of multi-parameter seismic monitoring in active fault zones.
由于对可靠的前兆信号的理解有限,地震预报仍然具有挑战性。虽然地震前地热流体的水化学异常有希望,但H-O-C同位素(δD、δ18O、δ13C)在地震发生过程中的响应机制及其与构造过程的定量联系尚不清楚。对地震活跃的川西鲜水河断裂带地热流体进行了连续水文地球化学监测和稳定同位素质谱分析(δD、δ18O、δ13CDIC)。利用Z-score方法对泸定6.8级地震余震序列中LTGS和EDQP两个温泉的时间序列数据进行了统计分析。(1)地震前δD和δ18O呈上升-下降趋势,主要受裂缝增强的流体混合和水岩相互作用的驱动。δD异常对Ms≥5.5的地震特别敏感。(2)构造应力聚集过程中深部碳酸盐岩热分解导致δ13C升高,释放出富含13c的CO2。随后的溶解和同位素交换使溶解的无机碳(DIC)具有高δ 13c特征;(3) z分数≥2能有效判别4.0级地震前兆异常,前兆响应时间为10天~ 2个月。本文建立了H-O-C同位素作为孕震过程的动态指标,提出了短临地震预报的z分数方法。将这些指标整合到多参数监测网络中,促进了活动断裂带多参数地震监测的发展。
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Geothermics
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