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A robust data-driven maximum experts consensus modeling approach considering fairness concerns under uncertain contexts 考虑不确定环境下公平性问题的鲁棒数据驱动最大专家共识建模方法
IF 6.4 2区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2026.01.009
jinpeng wei, xuanhua xu, qiuhan wang, zongrun wang, weiwei guo, francisco Javier
Due to the uncertainty of information, decision-makers within a group often seek to compare themselves with others to determine whether they are being treated fairly, which introduces significant instability into consensus management. To provide a reliable solution, this study aims to achieve fair consensus in uncertain environments. First, fairness concerns are incorporated into the maximum experts consensus model, measuring decision-makers’ fairness utility levels and revealing the relationship between their opinion adjustment behavior and fair consensus. Additionally, to more accurately and objectively characterize the uncertainty of consensus parameters, we use a kernel estimation method based on historical decision data to capture the uncertain features of both costs and opinions separately, thereby analyzing their impact on fair consensus. Robust optimization methods are then employed to mitigate the decision risks associated with these uncertainties, and various robust data-driven consensus models are constructed. These models not only eliminates the decision risks arising from uncertainty, but also addresses the issue of conservative consensus often encountered in traditional experience-driven robust optimization to some extent. We also developed an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm to solve the robust models. Finally, extensive numerical analysis results demonstrate that our approach produces more stable and reliable decision outcomes.
由于信息的不确定性,群体内的决策者经常试图将自己与他人进行比较,以确定他们是否受到公平对待,这给共识管理带来了重大的不稳定性。为了提供一个可靠的解决方案,本研究旨在不确定环境下达成公平的共识。首先,将公平考量纳入最大专家共识模型,衡量决策者的公平效用水平,揭示其意见调整行为与公平共识之间的关系。此外,为了更准确、客观地表征共识参数的不确定性,我们使用基于历史决策数据的核估计方法分别捕获成本和意见的不确定性特征,从而分析它们对公平共识的影响。然后采用鲁棒优化方法来降低与这些不确定性相关的决策风险,并构建了各种鲁棒数据驱动的共识模型。这些模型不仅消除了不确定性带来的决策风险,而且在一定程度上解决了传统经验驱动鲁棒优化中经常遇到的保守共识问题。我们还开发了一种改进的粒子群优化算法来求解鲁棒模型。最后,大量的数值分析结果表明,我们的方法产生了更稳定和可靠的决策结果。
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引用次数: 0
Periodic review inventory control for an omnichannel retailer with partial lost-sales 对有部分损失的全渠道零售商进行定期盘点控制
IF 6.4 2区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2026.01.012
Ben Lowery, Anna-Lena Sachs, Idris A. Eckley, Louise Lloyd
We investigate the management of stock for a business with integrated online and offline store-fronts selling products facing uncertainty in demand. The integration of channels includes an opportunity for customers to have items sent directly to their home in case of a store stockout. We model a two-echelon divergent, periodic-review inventory model, with partial lost-sales at the store level and an online demand channel. The problem is developed as a Stochastic Dynamic Program minimising inventory costs. For the zero lead-time case, we prove desirable properties and develop ordering decisions based on optimality of a base-stock policy. For positive lead-time, we highlight the effectiveness of adding order caps to reduce system costs. In an extensive numerical study, we improve standard heuristic methods in the literature on costs by up to 19%. Further, we apply methods to real life data for a large mobile phone retailer, Tesco Mobile, with our methods outperforming the internal benchmark method. We show how the company’s target service level can be reached, with a reduction of inventory between 75% and 99% at the store level. By focusing on effective yet interpretable policies, we suggest methods that can be used to aid a decision maker in a practical context.
我们研究了一个企业的库存管理与整合线上和线下店面销售产品面临需求的不确定性。渠道的整合包括,在商店缺货的情况下,顾客有机会将商品直接送到家中。我们建立了一个两级发散的、定期审查的库存模型,其中包括商店层面的部分销售损失和在线需求渠道。该问题被发展为最小化库存成本的随机动态规划。对于零交货时间的情况,我们证明了理想的性质,并基于基础库存策略的最优性制定了订购决策。对于积极的交货期,我们强调增加订单上限以降低系统成本的有效性。在一项广泛的数值研究中,我们将文献中关于成本的标准启发式方法提高了19%。此外,我们将方法应用于大型移动电话零售商Tesco mobile的现实生活数据,我们的方法优于内部基准方法。我们展示了如何达到公司的目标服务水平,在商店层面上减少75%到99%的库存。通过关注有效且可解释的政策,我们建议可以在实际环境中用于帮助决策者的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Dice and slice simulation optimization for high-dimensional discrete problems 高维离散问题的骰子和切片模拟优化
IF 6 2区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2026.01.005
Harun Avci , Barry L. Nelson , Eunhye Song , Andreas Wächter
Although much progress has been made in simulation optimization, problems involving computationally expensive simulations having high-dimensional, discrete decision-variable spaces have been stubbornly resistant to solution. For this class of problems we propose Dice and Slice Simulation Optimization (DASSO). DASSO is a form of Bayesian optimization that represents the prior on the objective function implied by the simulation as a sum of low-dimensional Gaussian Markov random fields. This prior is consistent with the full-dimensional objective function, rather than assuming that it is actually separable. By working iteratively between posteriors on these low-dimensional “dice” and a full-dimensional “slice” of the decision-variable space, DASSO makes rapid progress with little algorithm overhead even on problems with more than a trillion feasible solutions. We achieve further computational savings by showing that we can find the best solution to simulate on each iteration without having to assess the potential of all solutions—as is traditionally done in Bayesian optimization—by identifying a small set of Pareto-optimal solutions in subsets of the dimensions. We prove that DASSO is asymptotically convergent to the optimal solution, while emphasizing that its most important feature is the ability to find good solutions quickly in problems beyond the capability of other methods.
尽管在模拟优化方面取得了很大的进展,但涉及计算成本高、具有高维离散决策变量空间的模拟问题一直顽固地抵制解决。针对这类问题,我们提出了Dice and Slice Simulation Optimization (DASSO)。DASSO是贝叶斯优化的一种形式,它将模拟中隐含的目标函数的先验表示为低维高斯马尔可夫随机场的和。这个先验是与全维目标函数一致的,而不是假设它实际上是可分离的。通过在这些低维“骰子”和决策变量空间的全维“切片”的后置之间迭代工作,DASSO即使在具有超过一万亿可行解决方案的问题上也能以很少的算法开销取得快速进展。我们进一步节省了计算量,因为我们可以在每次迭代中找到模拟的最佳解决方案,而不必像传统的贝叶斯优化那样,通过识别维度子集中的一小组帕累托最优解决方案来评估所有解决方案的潜力。我们证明了DASSO是渐近收敛于最优解的,同时强调了它最重要的特征是在问题中快速找到好的解的能力,而不是其他方法的能力。
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引用次数: 0
Stochastic dynamic lot-sizing with supplier-driven substitution and service level constraints 供应商驱动替代和服务水平约束下的随机动态批量生产
IF 6 2区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2026.01.007
Narges Sereshti , Merve Bodur , James R. Luedtke
We consider a multi-stage stochastic multi-product lot-sizing problem with service level constraints and supplier-driven product substitution. A firm has the option to meet demand from substitutable products at a cost. Considering the uncertainty in future demands, the firm wishes to make ordering decisions in every period such that the probability that all demands can be met in the next period meets or exceeds a minimum service level. We propose a rolling-horizon policy in which a two-stage joint chance-constrained stochastic program is solved to make decisions in each time period. We demonstrate how to effectively solve this formulation. In addition, we propose two policies based on deterministic approximations. On test problems with a downward substitution structure, we show that the proposed chance-constraint policy can achieve the service levels more reliably and at a lower cost. We also explore the value of product substitution in this model, demonstrating that the substitution option allows achieving service levels while reducing costs by 7% to 25% in our experiments, and that the majority of the benefit can be obtained with limited levels of substitution allowed.
研究了具有服务水平约束和供应商驱动产品替代的多阶段随机多产品批量问题。企业可以选择以一定的成本来满足可替代产品的需求。考虑到未来需求的不确定性,企业希望在每个时期做出订货决策,使所有需求在下一个时期得到满足的概率达到或超过最低服务水平。我们提出了一种滚动地平线策略,该策略求解了一个两阶段联合机会约束随机规划,在每个时间段内进行决策。我们将演示如何有效地求解这个公式。此外,我们提出了两种基于确定性近似的策略。在具有向下替代结构的测试问题上,我们证明了所提出的机会约束策略能够以较低的成本更可靠地达到服务水平。我们还在该模型中探讨了产品替代的价值,证明替代选项允许在达到服务水平的同时降低实验中7%至25%的成本,并且在允许的有限替代水平下可以获得大部分收益。
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引用次数: 0
Computing Balanced Solutions for Large International Kidney Exchange Schemes When Cycle Length Is Unbounded 周期长度无界时大型国际肾脏交换方案平衡解的计算
IF 6.4 2区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2025.12.046
Márton Benedek, Péter Biró, Gergely Csáji, Matthew Johnson, Daniël Paulusma, Xin Ye
In kidney exchange programmes, patients with incompatible donors obtain kidneys via cycles of transplants. Countries may merge their national patient-donor pools to form international programmes. To ensure fairness, a credit-based system is used: a cooperative game-theoretic solution concept prescribes a “fair” initial allocation, which is adjusted with accumulated credits to form a target allocation. The objective is to maximize the number of transplants while staying close to the target allocation. When only 2-cycles are permitted, a solution that lexicographically minimizes deviations from the target can be found in polynomial time. However, even the problem of maximizing the number of transplants is NP-hard for larger upper bounds on cycle length. This latter problem is tractable when cycle lengths are not bounded. We formalize this setting via a new class of cooperative games called partitioned permutation games, and prove that computing an optimal solution that is lexicographically closest to the target allocation is NP-hard. We give a randomized XP-time algorithm for solve this problem exactly. We present an experimental study, simulating programmes with up to 10 countries. Allowing unbounded cycle lengths increases the number of transplants by up to 46% compared to 2-cycles. Using credits and selecting lexicographically closest solutions yields low total relative deviation (below 2% for all fairness notions). Among the seven fairness notions tested, a modified Banzhaf value performs best in balancing fairness and efficiency, achieving average deviations below 0.65%. Lexicographic minimization from the target allocation leads to significantly (3656%) smaller average deviations than minimizing maximum difference only.
在肾脏交换方案中,供体不相容的患者通过循环移植获得肾脏。各国可合并其国家患者-捐助者库,形成国际规划。为了保证公平,采用了基于信用的系统:合作博弈论解概念规定了一个“公平”的初始分配,并根据累积的信用进行调整,形成目标分配。目标是在接近目标分配的情况下最大限度地增加移植数量。当只允许2个循环时,可以在多项式时间内找到字典学上最小化与目标偏差的解决方案。然而,即使是移植数量最大化的问题,对于较大的周期长度上界也是np困难的。当周期长度无界时,后一个问题是可处理的。我们通过一种新的称为分区置换博弈的合作博弈来形式化这种设置,并证明计算字典上最接近目标分配的最优解是np困难的。我们给出了一个随机化的XP-time算法来精确地解决这个问题。我们提出了一项实验研究,模拟了多达10个国家的计划。与2周期相比,允许无界周期长度可使移植数量增加46%。使用积分并选择字典上最接近的解决方案产生较低的总相对偏差(所有公平性概念低于2%)。在被测试的七个公平概念中,修正Banzhaf值在平衡公平和效率方面表现最好,平均偏差低于0.65%。从目标分配的词典学最小化比最小化最大差异显著(36−56%)更小的平均偏差。
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引用次数: 0
A Lagrangian Relaxation-Based Heuristic Algorithm for Multiple Agile Earth Observation Satellite Scheduling with Time-Dependent Constraint 一种基于拉格朗日松弛的对地观测多卫星敏捷调度启发式算法
IF 6.4 2区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2025.12.047
Feiran Wang, Yingwu Chen, Lei He, Jiawei Chen, Shilong Xu, Haiwu Huang
The Multi-Agile Earth Observation Satellite Scheduling Problem (MAEOSSP) is a complex NP-hard optimization problem, characterized by resource constraints and highly nonlinear, time-dependent constraints. To address this challenge, we propose a Lagrangian Relaxation-based Heuristic (LRD-H) algorithm, a hybrid approach that integrates mathematical decomposition with tailored heuristics. The framework first employs Lagrangian Relaxation to decompose the MAEOSSP into independent single-satellite subproblems, which are solved by an efficient heuristic. Subsequently, it leverages dual information to construct high-quality feasible solutions, which are then enhanced by an iterative improvement procedure. Additionally, we provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating that the expected quality of our algorithm’s solutions monotonically improves with the computational effort allocated to the subproblem solver. Finally, extensive computational experiments show that LRD-H provides strong dual values for quality estimation and achieves significantly better solution quality compared to state-of-the-art benchmarks, especially on large-scale scenarios. Detailed ablation study empirically validates the critical role of our dual-information-guided solution construction and priority-aware improvement heuristics.
多敏捷对地观测卫星调度问题(maossp)是一个复杂的NP-hard优化问题,具有资源约束和高度非线性、时间依赖约束的特点。为了解决这一挑战,我们提出了一种基于拉格朗日松弛的启发式(LRD-H)算法,这是一种将数学分解与定制启发式相结合的混合方法。该框架首先利用拉格朗日松弛将maossp分解为独立的单卫星子问题,并采用高效的启发式方法求解。随后,它利用双重信息构建高质量的可行解决方案,然后通过迭代改进过程进行增强。此外,我们提供了一个理论分析,证明我们的算法解决方案的预期质量随着分配给子问题求解器的计算工作量单调地提高。最后,大量的计算实验表明,与最先进的基准测试相比,LRD-H为质量估计提供了强大的对偶值,并且实现了明显更好的解决方案质量,特别是在大规模场景下。详细的消融研究经验验证了我们的双信息引导的解决方案构建和优先级感知改进启发式的关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Analysing the interactions between demand side and supply side investment decisions in an oligopolistic electricity market using a stochastic equilibrium model 利用随机均衡模型分析了寡头垄断电力市场中需求侧和供给侧投资决策之间的相互作用
IF 6.4 2区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2026.01.006
Mel T. Devine, Valentin Bertsch
Electricity consumers worldwide are investing in self-sufficiency technologies like solar photovoltaics and battery storage, often in markets dominated by oligopolistic generating firms that also consider generation investments. Previous models in the literature have not considered investment decisions on both the demand and the supply sides, nor the interactions between them. In this work, we study the interactions between investment decisions on both sides, and we investigate how price-making behaviour on the supply side affects these interactions. We introduce a novel stochastic equilibrium problem to model several players in an oligopolistic electricity market. On the supply side, we consider generating firms that make operational and investment decisions. On the demand side, we consider both industrial and residential consumers. This model enables us to examine how market power, feed-in premiums, and consumer prosumption influence self-sufficiency investments, consumer costs, and generation portfolios. It also allows us to explore how the interactions among these factors affect outcomes such as wholesale prices and carbon emissions. We apply the model to a case study of a stylised Irish electricity system in 2030. Our results demonstrate that price-making on the supply side increases investment in self-sufficiency on the demand side, which in turn reduces carbon emissions and lessens the increase in prices resulting from the presence of market power. We also find that both market power and self-sufficiency alter the investment decisions made by generation firms. Counter-intuitively, we also observe that the absence of a feed-in premium increases investment in solar generation on the demand side.
世界各地的电力消费者都在投资太阳能光伏发电和电池储能等自给自足技术,这些技术通常是在由寡头垄断的发电公司主导的市场上进行的,这些公司也在考虑发电投资。文献中以前的模型没有考虑需求方和供给方的投资决策,也没有考虑它们之间的相互作用。在这项工作中,我们研究了双方投资决策之间的相互作用,并研究了供应方的定价行为如何影响这些相互作用。我们引入了一个新的随机均衡问题来模拟寡头垄断电力市场中的几个参与者。在供应方面,我们考虑发电公司做出运营和投资决策。在需求方面,我们考虑了工业和住宅消费者。该模型使我们能够研究市场力量、上网电价和消费者消费如何影响自给自足投资、消费者成本和发电组合。它还允许我们探索这些因素之间的相互作用如何影响批发价格和碳排放等结果。我们将该模型应用于2030年风格化的爱尔兰电力系统的案例研究。我们的研究结果表明,供给侧的定价增加了需求侧对自给自足的投资,这反过来又减少了碳排放,并减少了由于市场力量的存在而导致的价格上涨。我们还发现,市场力量和自给自足都会改变发电企业的投资决策。与直觉相反的是,我们还观察到,没有上网电价补贴会增加需求侧对太阳能发电的投资。
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引用次数: 0
Privacy Concerns and Data Rights Regulation in Digital Markets 数字市场中的隐私问题和数据权利监管
IF 6.4 2区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2026.01.008
Yashuang Wei, Guofang Nan, Hubert Pun
In response to rising privacy concerns from potential data misuse fueled by digital development, policymakers have implemented various privacy regulation policies. These regulations are progressively enhancing consumers’ control over their personal data, making it commonplace for them to make informed decisions about data sharing. Using an analytical framework, we examine how consumers’ data control rights shape consumer-firm interactions and decisions. Interestingly, we find that the data rights regulation consistently motivates firms to set higher product prices. Moreover, we show that this regulation for consumers can confer benefits onto firms in both monopoly and duopoly settings. In a duopoly market, data rights regulation may counter the Matthew effect by redistributing competitive advantages from superior to inferior firms, reducing monopolization risks. Unfortunately, our findings indicate that granting consumers data control rights can reduce their surplus, as they may have to pay higher prices for the privacy security these rights provide.
为了应对数字发展引发的潜在数据滥用引发的日益严重的隐私问题,政策制定者实施了各种隐私监管政策。这些规定正在逐步加强消费者对其个人数据的控制,使他们对数据共享做出明智的决定变得司空见惯。使用分析框架,我们研究了消费者的数据控制权如何影响消费者与企业的互动和决策。有趣的是,我们发现数据权利监管持续激励企业设定更高的产品价格。此外,我们还表明,在垄断和双寡头垄断环境下,这种对消费者的监管都能给企业带来好处。在双寡头市场中,数据权利监管可以通过将竞争优势从优势企业重新分配给劣势企业来抵消马太效应,从而降低垄断风险。不幸的是,我们的研究结果表明,授予消费者数据控制权可以减少他们的剩余,因为他们可能不得不为这些权利提供的隐私安全支付更高的价格。
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引用次数: 0
Soft decision trees for survival analysis 用于生存分析的软决策树
IF 6.4 2区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2026.01.004
Antonio Consolo, Edoardo Amaldi, Emilio Carrizosa
Decision trees are popular in survival analysis for their interpretability and ability to model complex relationships. Survival trees, which predict the timing of singular events using censored historical data, are typically built through heuristic approaches. Recently, there has been growing interest in globally optimized trees, where the overall tree is trained by minimizing the error function over all its parameters. We propose a new soft survival tree model (SST), with a soft splitting rule at each branch node, trained via a nonlinear optimization formulation amenable to decomposition. Since SSTs provide for every input vector a specific survival function associated to a single leaf node, they satisfy the conditional computation property and inherit the related benefits. SST and the training formulation combine flexibility with interpretability: any smooth survival function (parametric, semiparametric, or nonparametric) estimated through maximum likelihood can be used, and each leaf node of an SST yields a cluster of distinct survival functions which are associated to the data points routed to it. Numerical experiments on 15 well-known datasets show that SSTs, with parametric and spline-based semiparametric survival functions, trained using an adaptation of the node-based decomposition algorithm proposed by Consolo et al. (2024) for soft regression trees, outperform three benchmark survival trees in terms of four widely-used discrimination and calibration measures. SSTs can also be extended to consider group fairness.
决策树因其可解释性和建模复杂关系的能力在生存分析中很受欢迎。生存树通常是通过启发式方法构建的,它使用经过审查的历史数据来预测单个事件的时间。最近,人们对全局优化树越来越感兴趣,在全局优化树中,通过最小化所有参数上的误差函数来训练整个树。本文提出了一种新的软生存树模型(SST),该模型在每个分支节点上具有软分裂规则,并通过可分解的非线性优化公式进行训练。由于SSTs为每个输入向量提供了与单个叶节点相关的特定生存函数,因此它们满足条件计算特性并继承了相关优点。SST和训练公式结合了灵活性和可解释性:通过最大似然估计的任何平滑生存函数(参数、半参数或非参数)都可以使用,SST的每个叶节点产生一组不同的生存函数,这些生存函数与路由到它的数据点相关。在15个知名数据集上的数值实验表明,使用Consolo等人(2024)针对软回归树提出的基于节点的分解算法进行训练的sst,具有参数和基于样条的半参数生存函数,在四种广泛使用的判别和校准措施方面优于三种基准生存树。SSTs也可以扩展到考虑群体公平。
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引用次数: 0
Ordering policies for multi-item inventory systems with correlated demands 具有相关需求的多物品库存系统的订货策略
IF 6.4 2区 管理学 Q1 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2025.12.042
Zhaleh Rahimi, Douglas G. Down, Na Li, Donald M. Arnold
We investigate optimal ordering policies for a multi-item periodic-review inventory system, considering demand correlations and historical data for the products involved. We extend inventory models by transitioning from an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) demand process to a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) framework, explicitly characterizing optimal ordering policies when there is both autocorrelation and cross-correlation among multiple items. Through experimental studies, we evaluate inventory costs and cost improvements compared to multi-item ordering policies where demands are assumed to be independent under different degrees of correlation, noise levels, and training data window sizes. The results show that the framework effectively reduces inventory costs, particularly for products with moderate to high dependence. Cost reductions can reach up to 25% for moderate and up to 65% for strong dependence. We also apply our findings to real-world data to optimize inventory policies for immunoglobulin sub-products, intravenous (IVIg) and subcutaneous (SCIg), demonstrating cost improvements using the proposed policy. Furthermore, an empirical study analyzing a large sales dataset reinforces the applicability of our approach.
我们研究了一个多项目定期审查库存系统的最优订购策略,考虑了所涉及产品的需求相关性和历史数据。我们通过从自回归移动平均(ARMA)需求过程过渡到向量自回归移动平均(VARMA)框架来扩展库存模型,明确地描述了当多个项目之间存在自相关和相互关联时的最优订购策略。通过实验研究,我们评估了在不同程度的相关性、噪声水平和训练数据窗口大小下,假设需求独立的多项目订购策略的库存成本和成本改进。结果表明,该框架有效地降低了库存成本,特别是对于中等到高度依赖的产品。对于中度依赖,成本降低可达25%,对于重度依赖,成本降低可达65%。我们还将我们的研究结果应用于现实世界的数据,以优化免疫球蛋白亚产品,静脉注射(IVIg)和皮下注射(SCIg)的库存政策,证明使用拟议政策可以改善成本。此外,一项分析大型销售数据集的实证研究加强了我们方法的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
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European Journal of Operational Research
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