Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics-Revue Canadienne D Agroeconomie最新文献

After a year of adjusting to the shocks associated with COVID-19 the Canadian cattle and beef sector faces a relatively optimistic future. This note examines the past year for this supply chain from the perspective of the consumer up to the cow-calf producer by considering consumer reactions, labor market constraints, and supply responses. In the second quarter of 2020, the sector faced a significant challenge with continent wide shutdowns of beef packers reducing the U.S. beef supply by one-third and Canadian beef slaughter by almost 60%. These shutdowns resulted in a sharp divergence between wholesale beef prices, which more than doubled, and fed steer prices, which declined by one third. Despite these dramatic shocks, the sector has returned to near normal conditions with prices and production levels similar to those observed prior to the pandemic. The near term prospects for 2021 are very similar to the current market situation.

While COVID-19 had the potential to be extremely disruptive to the Canadian pork supply chain, the sector showed resiliency by adjusting to market changes to ensure industry continuation. Unlike other non-agricultural firms that were mandated to close at times, the pork sector was deemed an essential service and allowed to continue operating throughout the pandemic. Evidence of this resiliency is seen in three main ways. First, market access to the United States was maintained for both live pigs and pork exports. Second, Canada not only maintained market share in global pork exports, but it also actually increased shipments because of strong demand from China caused by African swine fever. Third, the challenges of processing plant closures and labour shortages were overcome in a variety of ways including increasing interprovincial shipments and increasing live pig exports to the United States. Pork consumption on a per capita basis continued the historical downward trend, and it is expected that consumers will return to their normal consumption patterns (e.g., dining at restaurants) despite job losses. At the meat processing level, it is anticipated that there will be an acceleration in the process to automate.

This paper assesses the earlier projections made by the authors in March 2020 about the impact of COVID-19 on Canada's food security. First, as measured in the early part of the second quarter of 2020, COVID-19 is associated with an increased prevalence of household food insecurity as measured by Statistics Canada. Also, as we predicted, we did not observe a rapid general increase in food prices that would have suggested a breakdown in parts of the food system. In this regard, we now develop a general insight that we believe is worthy of ongoing consideration. Put simply, concerns expressed about food insecurity should not be seen as tantamount to a failure of our food supply system. Household income, for example, is an important part of the story. The converse is also true: the success of our food supply system as measured by its capacity to adapt to challenges like COVID-19 or provide a variety of food at relatively low prices—while necessary, and (in our opinion) critical considerations—will not alone eliminate food insecurity in Canada. The oversimplified conflation of food insecurity concerns with the robustness of our food supply system does a disservice to ongoing efforts to address food insecurity as well as our capacity to assess and improve the Canadian food supply system.

More than 1 year after the outbreak of COVID-19, Canadian fruit and vegetable markets continue to adjust to the evolving landscape. In this article, we focus on three key measures of input and output market performance that serve as indicators of the stability of fruit and vegetable markets in Canada in the medium-term, and offer some insight for how these markets will continue to adjust in the longer run. Specifically, we use data to highlight the most recent trends in (1) the production and aggregate movement for major fruit and vegetable crops in the United States and Canada, (2) labor supply and immigration visa patterns, and (3) U.S.–Canada trade patterns for fruits and vegetables. We provide evidence that the fresh produce supply chain in Canada, and for markets in their largest trade partner in the United States, has remained relatively robust.

We define the boundary of a livestock farm in terms of corn production as the percentage of homegrown corn in total corn required. A new theoretical model is proposed that explains how farm boundaries are shaped by the relative efficiency of two alternative transaction-facilitating mechanisms: market and hierarchy. Using tax filer data from swine farms in Ontario, this article analyzes the impact that the mechanism efficiency has on farm boundaries. To identify the potential causal effect, the USD/CAD exchange rate is used as the instrumental variable for corn price in Ontario. The findings support the theoretical model: in-house corn production expands due to not only higher price but also higher price volatility. The potential causal relationship we identified flowing from the mechanism efficiency to farm boundary may shed light on why swine and other livestock industries are shifting towards nonmarket arrangements.

Policymakers are increasingly relying on computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to provide economy-wide impacts of trade agreements; however, these assessments often make the simplifying assumption of complete bilateral tariff elimination. But agreements typically involve partial tariff elimination for sensitive sectors—which are often differentiated at the tariff line. As such, applying a uniform tariff reduction in a CGE sector that encompasses many products could introduce bias. We propose a tariff line approach for modelling exemptions for sensitive goods in CGE models with the aim of reducing this bias. This approach is tested for the Canada–EU trade agreement, and systematically compared to standard approaches to bilateral trade liberalisation in CGE analysis. We find that more common approaches might systematically overestimate trade and welfare impacts by neglecting partial liberalisation in selected sectors and/or not considering substitution across tariff lines.

President Biden was sworn in on January 20, 2021 after a 4-year term by President Trump. Certainly, Trump's norm breaking presidency impacted Canada in significant ways and the agricultural sector was no exception. In this issue, we have a set of four short articles discussing the possible implications on Canadian agriculture of transitioning from a Trump to Biden presidency. Issues related to Canada-U.S. agricultural trade, political norms and uncertainty, U.S. domestic support, participation in trade agreements, and U.S.-China relations are all considered.

Canadian agricultural trade has experienced several volatile periods over the past 15 years. The Great Recession (2007–2009), the 2015–2016 global trade slowdown, unilateral policy actions by the United States against key trade allies and the multilateral system more generally, and the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic are among the most significant events during this period. Given the close integration of Canadian and US agricultural markets, the recent US election is likely to again impact the relative competitiveness of Canadian agricultural exports. While many observers suggest President-elect Joe Biden will return to normal times regarding multilateral cooperation with key allies and international institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the new administration is likely to face headwinds given the significant fraying of ties with key trading partners and allies due to disruptive actions taken by his predecessor. This article provides an overview of potential implications of a Biden administration for Canada's agricultural trade. We start by reviewing recent trade shock events affecting Canada's agricultural trade with a particular focus on trade actions taken by the United States. Relevant components of the President-elect Biden's platform, considerations affecting the implementation of this platform, and the implications of this for Canadian agricultural trade are considered.

Global aquaculture markets have experienced a great deal of recent success. However, growers are still highly susceptible to risks caused by seasonality, interannual variability in earnings, and environmental factors. As a result, we see growers turning to alternative sources of income, and participating in off-farm labor. We utilize a series of zero-inflated count models to examine the relationship between an aquaculture grower's off-farm labor decision and relevant explanatory variables including demand-side potency, which is often omitted in the literature. We also look to identify and analyze the importance of professional social networks among growers as a stabilizing mechanism and a way to mitigate risk to growers. This study expands upon an economic model that has traditionally been used for analyzing off-farm labor choices within an agricultural context and applies it to an increasingly important industry, aquaculture.

A well-functioning trade relationship between Canada and the United States is crucial to the economic vitality of the Canadian agri-food industry. However, agri-food trade is more susceptible than other sectors to political interventions. The Trump presidency has strained Canada–US relations and his trade policy actions have significantly increased trade restrictions and trade policy uncertainty and undermined the rules-based global trading system. We examine the pattern of agri-food trade between the two countries and find that the upward trajectory of bilateral agri-food trade ended in 2013. Although this flatlining predates the Trump administration, we show that Trump increased trade policy uncertainty starting in 2017 and likely impacted further expansion of trade. We examine what might change under the Biden presidency and argue that the new administration is likely to restore strong relationships with allies and work to rebuild important international institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO). Although protectionist forces will continue to impact bilateral agri-food trade, we expect closer political ties between a Biden administration and the Canadian Prime Minister. This should have a positive effect on the Canadian agri-food industry by reducing trade uncertainties, thereby increasing agri-food trade between Canada and the United States.