Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics-Revue Canadienne D Agroeconomie最新文献

One year into the largest economic and health event of the past 70 years, this paper considers how agricultural supply chains and agricultural transportation have been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Written as an update to Gray (2020), we are able to show that agricultural transportation systems have proven to be extremely robust and were able to innovate in real-time to address challenges in the agricultural and food supply chains. We are also able confirm that most of the transportation components are well-equipped to deal with the remainder of the pandemic and the recovery phase. Notably, innovation created new services, cost-saving technologies, safety innovations, new institutions, networks, and channels of communication that operated effectively to address the pandemic. These changes are likely to remain in place post pandemic.

Based on official survey data from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs collected in 2010 and 2015, we use the difference-in-differences method to study how the Chinese land titling reform beginning in 2009 in tiers (“the Reform”) affected the demand, supply, access, and rationing on the Chinese rural credit market. Our main findings are: (1) the Reform increased households’ hidden credit demand, but not their effective credit demand; (2) the Reform had no significant effect on effective credit supply or a household's credit access; (3) the Reform increased the likelihood of non-price credit rationing, in particular risk rationing; and (4) in the subsample of households living in counties where the local governments explicitly permitted the use of land as collateral, the Reform had a positive effect on credit supply; but in the subsample of households living in counties where land collateral was not explicitly permitted, the Reform was associated with an increase in non-price rationing. Findings of this study are not only useful to assess the economic and social implications of rural land titling in China, but they also offer insights in understanding similar policies in other countries, particularly developing economies.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) initiated shocks to the Canadian agri-food industry moving the sector away from its prepandemic equilibrium. Disequilibrium can mean, postshock, that sectors follow different paths of adjustment. The public and politicians appear to desire that economic activity returns to prepandemic norms—but this is far from assured. In the case of the Canadian agri-food industry, the postshock path of adjustment appears to be returning to the preshock equilibrium, or near to it. This provides a familiar and stable anchor for those whose lives are otherwise considerably disrupted by the pandemic. The multilateral international trade system has long been in need of reform—reforms that would benefit Canada's agri-food exporting sector. The pandemic has raised trade issues that require urgent action and some countries see this as an opportunity for reform. Canada has been at the forefront of this activity through the fostering, hosting, and chairing of the Ottawa Group of 13 World Trade Organization members that have been charged with bringing forward proposals for reform that will break the log jam in multilateral negotiations. The work of the Ottawa Group is examined and the likelihood of the initiative succeeding assessed.

After a year of adjusting to the shocks associated with COVID-19 the Canadian cattle and beef sector faces a relatively optimistic future. This note examines the past year for this supply chain from the perspective of the consumer up to the cow-calf producer by considering consumer reactions, labor market constraints, and supply responses. In the second quarter of 2020, the sector faced a significant challenge with continent wide shutdowns of beef packers reducing the U.S. beef supply by one-third and Canadian beef slaughter by almost 60%. These shutdowns resulted in a sharp divergence between wholesale beef prices, which more than doubled, and fed steer prices, which declined by one third. Despite these dramatic shocks, the sector has returned to near normal conditions with prices and production levels similar to those observed prior to the pandemic. The near term prospects for 2021 are very similar to the current market situation.

While COVID-19 had the potential to be extremely disruptive to the Canadian pork supply chain, the sector showed resiliency by adjusting to market changes to ensure industry continuation. Unlike other non-agricultural firms that were mandated to close at times, the pork sector was deemed an essential service and allowed to continue operating throughout the pandemic. Evidence of this resiliency is seen in three main ways. First, market access to the United States was maintained for both live pigs and pork exports. Second, Canada not only maintained market share in global pork exports, but it also actually increased shipments because of strong demand from China caused by African swine fever. Third, the challenges of processing plant closures and labour shortages were overcome in a variety of ways including increasing interprovincial shipments and increasing live pig exports to the United States. Pork consumption on a per capita basis continued the historical downward trend, and it is expected that consumers will return to their normal consumption patterns (e.g., dining at restaurants) despite job losses. At the meat processing level, it is anticipated that there will be an acceleration in the process to automate.

This paper assesses the earlier projections made by the authors in March 2020 about the impact of COVID-19 on Canada's food security. First, as measured in the early part of the second quarter of 2020, COVID-19 is associated with an increased prevalence of household food insecurity as measured by Statistics Canada. Also, as we predicted, we did not observe a rapid general increase in food prices that would have suggested a breakdown in parts of the food system. In this regard, we now develop a general insight that we believe is worthy of ongoing consideration. Put simply, concerns expressed about food insecurity should not be seen as tantamount to a failure of our food supply system. Household income, for example, is an important part of the story. The converse is also true: the success of our food supply system as measured by its capacity to adapt to challenges like COVID-19 or provide a variety of food at relatively low prices—while necessary, and (in our opinion) critical considerations—will not alone eliminate food insecurity in Canada. The oversimplified conflation of food insecurity concerns with the robustness of our food supply system does a disservice to ongoing efforts to address food insecurity as well as our capacity to assess and improve the Canadian food supply system.

More than 1 year after the outbreak of COVID-19, Canadian fruit and vegetable markets continue to adjust to the evolving landscape. In this article, we focus on three key measures of input and output market performance that serve as indicators of the stability of fruit and vegetable markets in Canada in the medium-term, and offer some insight for how these markets will continue to adjust in the longer run. Specifically, we use data to highlight the most recent trends in (1) the production and aggregate movement for major fruit and vegetable crops in the United States and Canada, (2) labor supply and immigration visa patterns, and (3) U.S.–Canada trade patterns for fruits and vegetables. We provide evidence that the fresh produce supply chain in Canada, and for markets in their largest trade partner in the United States, has remained relatively robust.

We define the boundary of a livestock farm in terms of corn production as the percentage of homegrown corn in total corn required. A new theoretical model is proposed that explains how farm boundaries are shaped by the relative efficiency of two alternative transaction-facilitating mechanisms: market and hierarchy. Using tax filer data from swine farms in Ontario, this article analyzes the impact that the mechanism efficiency has on farm boundaries. To identify the potential causal effect, the USD/CAD exchange rate is used as the instrumental variable for corn price in Ontario. The findings support the theoretical model: in-house corn production expands due to not only higher price but also higher price volatility. The potential causal relationship we identified flowing from the mechanism efficiency to farm boundary may shed light on why swine and other livestock industries are shifting towards nonmarket arrangements.

Policymakers are increasingly relying on computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to provide economy-wide impacts of trade agreements; however, these assessments often make the simplifying assumption of complete bilateral tariff elimination. But agreements typically involve partial tariff elimination for sensitive sectors—which are often differentiated at the tariff line. As such, applying a uniform tariff reduction in a CGE sector that encompasses many products could introduce bias. We propose a tariff line approach for modelling exemptions for sensitive goods in CGE models with the aim of reducing this bias. This approach is tested for the Canada–EU trade agreement, and systematically compared to standard approaches to bilateral trade liberalisation in CGE analysis. We find that more common approaches might systematically overestimate trade and welfare impacts by neglecting partial liberalisation in selected sectors and/or not considering substitution across tariff lines.

President Biden was sworn in on January 20, 2021 after a 4-year term by President Trump. Certainly, Trump's norm breaking presidency impacted Canada in significant ways and the agricultural sector was no exception. In this issue, we have a set of four short articles discussing the possible implications on Canadian agriculture of transitioning from a Trump to Biden presidency. Issues related to Canada-U.S. agricultural trade, political norms and uncertainty, U.S. domestic support, participation in trade agreements, and U.S.-China relations are all considered.