Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics-Revue Canadienne D Agroeconomie最新文献

We explore the information content of dockside prices and fishing costs in the estimation of stock abundance. Our approach is two-pronged: we first examine whether the implied biomass, that is, the biomass that is consistent with a simple microeconomic model calibrated with observed prices and costs, offers an approximation of actual stock assessments—both agree over the first 20 years of observation, but diverge over the last five. In a second approach, we use annual data in Vector Autoregressive (VAR), Bayesian VAR (B-VAR), and Vector Error Correction (VEC) frameworks and add monthly data in a mixed-frequency data analysis including Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR (MF-BVAR) and Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) frameworks for log-differenced time series. Parameter uncertainties are addressed through Bayesian regression and forecasting methods. We find a statistically significant correlation between biometric estimates and changes in a price-based indicator that is robust to the inclusion of confounding factors. We conclude that the combination of price data and per-trip landings, when interpreted with care, can serve as a complementary, but comparatively affordable and timely, source of information for stock assessments.

This article examines the effect of price hedging on publicly subsidized insurance. Theoretically, the effect of hedging is found to have an ambiguous effect on the incentive to purchase revenue insurance. A simulation is used to analyze the relationship between hedging and the Canadian AgriStability program in three regions in Saskatchewan. AgriStability is a margin insurance product, though in the simulation I hold input use constant, allowing the program to operate as if it were revenue insurance. Hedging is found to substantially reduce enrolment in AgriStability in each region. Furthermore, in some simulations the benefits that producers receive from AgriStability are smaller than the value of government subsidies. The results offer an explanation for low participation in AgriStability and show that the risk-reducing effect of AgriStability is moderated by the ability of crop producers to hedge price risk through other means.

Using detailed survey data on broiler growers, we tested for the existence of hold-up problems in the broiler industry in Jiangsu Province, China. We found that growers’ investments in chicken houses, which are assets with a high degree of physical and location specificity, increased along with the number of potential buyers (integrators) nearby. Such an effect was particularly strong in proximity to leading industry buyers. These results support the existence of hold-ups in the Chinese broiler industry. However, we failed to find evidence that a longer-term contract led to higher grower investments in chicken houses, possibly because of the lack of a minimum purchase guarantee in a typical contract. A key policy implication of this study is that subsidies to growers, from the government or buyers, can alleviate the underinvestment problem caused by hold-ups.

The production of biofuels is limited in Canada, but the availability of wheat straw as a second-generation (i.e., cellulosic) feedstock is an exciting prospect for the future development of a biofuel industry. The future success of such a biofuel industry will depend on future ethanol prices and prices related to wheat straw. These prices are likely to be influenced by markets related to the existing first-generation ethanol industry in the United States. Therefore, the motivation of this paper is to investigate relationships between Canadian wheat prices and US corn, ethanol, and gasoline prices. We employ a DCC-MGARCH enhanced VEC model to investigate time-varying relationships among these markets. Results indicate that there are positive relationships between wheat and corn, ethanol and corn, and wheat and ethanol markets. Our results add to a better understanding of the level of integration between select Canadian agricultural markets and US energy markets. More specifically, the price relationships identified highlight several sources of price risk that may affect the financial success of commercially producing second-generation ethanol from wheat straw in Canada. This information will be of particular interest to prospective industry investors and policymakers.

The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of research and development (R&D) investment on the export performance of Canadian agrifood small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and on that of related sectors, namely, the textile and clothing sector and the manufacture of leather goods and similar products. First, we analyzed explanatory factors for R&D expenses, and then, we analyzed the impact of R&D on extensive (market access) and intensive (trade value) margins of trade using a difference-in-differences approach. We used data obtained from the Statistics Canada's National Accounts Longitudinal Microdata File (NALMF) for 2010–2015 and the Trade by Exporter Characteristics (TEC) database. The size of firms and their support from the Canadian government affect their propensity to invest in R&D and the amount of R&D expenses and their intensity, measured as the ratio of R&D to sales of goods and services. Overall, our results show that investment in R&D has a positive impact on the export performance of agrifood SMEs; the impact is smaller when the destination is one of the states in the United States.

The adoption of improved crop varieties, such as drought-tolerant varieties, plays a crucial role in addressing climate change. In this study, we explore how and to what extent spatial interactions between farmers and neighboring farmers affect the adoption of drought-tolerant wheat varieties (DTWVs), using data collected from rural households in China. A spatial Durbin probit model is utilized to identify the spatial patterns in DTWVs adoption. Results show that spatial dependence exists in DTWVs adoption. Spatial dependence is positively associated with wheat farmers’ DTWVs adoption decisions, and the spatial effects mainly arise from the neighboring farmers’ adoption decisions and information spillover via smartphone use and extension service contacts. Further analysis reveals that DTWVs adoption improves farm performance by increasing both wheat yields and farm profits significantly. Our findings underscore the necessity of considering spatial interactions between farmers when designing and promoting innovative agricultural technologies in rural areas.

In contrast to April 2020 forecasts of the effects of the pandemic on Canada's agricultural trade, we find 1 year later that the recession was deeper, that total trade fell by less than was widely expected, and agricultural trade did not fall but actually increased. This was a general pattern across countries, but Canada's agricultural trade increased by at least 11%, more than the world aggregate and that of the U.S. This was mostly due to the success of crop exports, specifically in oilseeds, lentils, and cereals. Although some of the increase was due to rising commodity prices, for the most part trade volumes also increased substantially. Not only was Canada's export boom not expected but it was also not closely related to the pandemic. It was due to commodity-specific circumstances, such as China's rebuilding of its depleted hog herd, a short crop of lentils in India, and demand shifts to Canadian wheat, durum and barley. Increased Asian demand helped this export growth, but accounted for less than a third of it.

The dairy and poultry sectors responded quickly to the initial adjustments in the quantity and nature of food products forced by the shuttering of the hospitality sector and the subsequent switch to buying food from grocery stores. In addition, these sectors were less affected by the labor availability and health issues from COVID-19 (coronavirus disease-2019) that plagued others, such as red meat processors. While the overall impacts were less than most other parts of the agri-food system, some elements of supply managed products, particularly poultry processors, have experienced a reduction in returns and are still adjusting to the new demand and supply situation. The extent of the impact is correlated with the degree to which the supply chain further upstream was connected to the downstream hospitality sector.

The unexpected introduction and spread of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) has presented significant risks for every aspect of Canadian society, including the food and agricultural sector. The suite of Business Risk Management (BRM) programs, developed decades ago and without any thought to the possibility of a global pandemic, are meant to assist farmers in managing risks. This article discusses to what extent these BRM programs, and more broadly government programs, assisted farmers in managing risks brought on by the pandemic. Despite calls by industry for significant additional public funds, we find that COVID-19 exposed no significant gaps in BRM programming and therefore we see no reason for more funding to be funneled to the farm sector through BRM programming.