Asta-Advances in Statistical Analysis最新文献

In this work, we propose an extension of the versatile joint regression framework for bivariate count responses of the R package GJRM by Marra and Radice (R package version 0.2-3, 2020) by incorporating an (adaptive) LASSO-type penalty. The underlying estimation algorithm is based on a quadratic approximation of the penalty. The method enables variable selection and the corresponding estimates guarantee shrinkage and sparsity. Hence, this approach is particularly useful in high-dimensional count response settings. The proposal’s empirical performance is investigated in a simulation study and an application on FIFA World Cup football data.

We explain how effective automatic probability density function estimates can be constructed using contemporary Bayesian inference engines such as those based on no-U-turn sampling and expectation propagation. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed density estimates have excellent comparative performance and scale well to very large sample sizes due to a binning strategy. Moreover, the approach is fully Bayesian and all estimates are accompanied by point-wise credible intervals. An accompanying package in the R language facilitates easy use of the new density estimates.

Notions of data depth have motivated nonparametric multivariate analysis, especially in supervised learning. Maximum depth classifiers, classifiers based on depth-depth plots and depth distribution classifiers are nonparametric classification methodologies based on the notions of data depth and are Bayes-optimal rule under certain conditions. This paper proposes rank-rank plot for classification. Theoretical properties of the suggested classifier are investigated in some particular cases given by specific distributional assumptions. The performance of the proposed classification method is further investigated using simulated datasets.

Judging by its significant potential to affect the outcome of a game in one single action, the penalty kick is arguably the most important set piece in football. Scientific studies on how the ability to convert a penalty kick is distributed among professional football players are scarce. In this paper, we consider how to rank penalty takers in the German Bundesliga based on historical data from 1963 to 2021. We use Bayesian models that improve inference on ability measures of individual players by imposing structural assumptions on an associated high-dimensional parameter space. These methods prove useful for our application, coping with the inherent difficulty that many players only take few penalties, making purely frequentist inference rather unreliable.

The recent sports science literature conveys a growing interest in robust statistical methods to analyze smooth, regularly-sampled functional data. This paper focuses on the inferential problem of identifying the parts of a functional domain where two population means differ. We considered four approaches recently used in sports science: interval-wise testing (IWT), statistical parametric mapping (SPM), statistical nonparametric mapping (SnPM) and the Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) procedure for false discovery control. We applied these procedures to both six representative sports science datasets, and also to systematically varied simulated datasets which replicated ten signal- and/or noise-relevant parameters that were identified in the experimental datasets. We observed generally higher IWT and BH sensitivity for five of the six experimental datasets. BH was the most sensitive procedure in simulation, but also had relatively high false positive rates (generally > 0.1) which increased sharply (> 0.3) in certain extreme simulation scenarios including highly rough data. SPM and SnPM were more sensitive than IWT in simulation except for (1) high roughness, (2) high nonstationarity, and (3) highly nonuniform smoothness. These results suggest that the optimum procedure is both signal and noise-dependent. We conclude that: (1) BH is most sensitive but also susceptible to high false positive rates, (2) IWT, SPM and SnPM appear to have relatively inconsequential differences in terms of domain identification sensitivity, except in cases of extreme signal/noise characteristics, where IWT appears to be superior at identifying a greater portion of the true signal.

This paper considers a general Bayesian test for the multi-sample problem. Specifically, for M independent samples, the interest is to determine whether the M samples are generated from the same multivariate population. First, M Dirichlet processes are considered as priors for the true distributions generated the data. Then, the concentration of the distribution of the total distance between the M posterior processes is compared to the concentration of the distribution of the total distance between the M prior processes through the relative belief ratio. The total distance between processes is established based on the energy distance. Various interesting theoretical results of the approach are derived. Several examples covering the high dimensional case are considered to illustrate the approach.

We study an alternative approach to determine the final league table in football competitions with a premature ending. For several countries, a premature ending of the 2019/2020 football season has occurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose a model-based method as a possible alternative to the use of the incomplete standings to determine the final table. This method measures the performance of the teams in the matches of the season that have been played and predicts the remaining non-played matches through a paired-comparison model. The main advantage of the method compared to the incomplete standings is that it takes account of the bias in the performance measure due to the schedule of the matches in a season. Therefore, the resulting ranking of the teams based on our proposed method can be regarded as more fair in this respect. A forecasting study based on historical data of seven of the main European competitions is used to validate the method. The empirical results suggest that the model-based approach produces more accurate predictions of the true final standings than those based on the incomplete standings.

Recent studies have pointed out the effect of personality traits on athletes’ performance and success; however, fewer analyses have focused the relation among these features and specific athletic behaviors, skills, and strategies to enhance performance. To fill this void, the present paper provides evidence on what personality traits mostly affect athletes’ mental skills and, in turn, their effect on the performance of a sample of elite swimmers. The main findings were obtained by exploiting a component-based structural equation modeling which allows to analyze the relationships among some psychological constructs, measuring personality traits and mental skills, and a construct measuring sports performance. The partial least squares path modeling was employed, as it is the most recognized method among the component-based approaches. The introduced method simultaneously encompasses latent and emergent variables. Rather than focusing only on objective behaviors or game/race outcomes, such an approach evaluates variables not directly observable related to sport performance, such as cognition and affect, considering measurement error and measurement invariance, as well as the validity and reliability of the obtained latent constructs. The obtained results could be an asset to design strategies and interventions both for coaches and swimmers establishing an innovative use of statistical methods for maximizing athletes’ performance and well-being.

This article considers a modeling problem of integer-valued time series of bounded counts in which the binomial index of dispersion of the observations is greater than one, i.e., the observations inhere the characteristic of extra-binomial variation. Most methods analyzing such characteristic are based on the conditional mean process instead of the observed process itself. To fill this gap, we introduce a new class of beta-binomial integer-valued GARCH models, establish the geometric moment contracting property of its conditional mean process, discuss the stationarity and ergodicity of the observed process and its conditional mean process, and give some stochastic properties of them. We consider the conditional maximum likelihood estimates and establish the asymptotic properties of the estimators. The performances of these estimators are compared via simulation studies. Finally, we apply the proposed models to two real data sets.

Movement models predict positions of players (or objects in general) over time and are thus key to analyzing spatiotemporal data as it is often used in sports analytics. Existing movement models are either designed from physical principles or are entirely data-driven. However, the former suffers from oversimplifications to achieve feasible and interpretable models, while the latter relies on computationally costly, from a current point of view, nonparametric density estimations and require maintaining multiple estimators, each responsible for different types of movements (e.g., such as different velocities). In this paper, we propose a unified contextual probabilistic movement model based on normalizing flows. Our approach learns the desired densities by directly optimizing the likelihood and maintains only a single contextual model that can be conditioned on auxiliary variables. Training is simultaneously performed on all observed types of movements, resulting in an effective and efficient movement model. We empirically evaluate our approach on spatiotemporal data from professional soccer. Our findings show that our approach outperforms the state of the art while being orders of magnitude more efficient with respect to computation time and memory requirements.