American Journal of Agricultural Economics最新文献

Farm succession is a central issue in agricultural policy. Yet although many studies explore succession planning, little is known about how farms are actually transferred. We provide the first population-level evidence on intergenerational farm succession by linking US census records for millions of farmers' children in 1900 and 1910 to identify which children own and operate the family farm up to 40 years later. We first show that daughters are rarely successors. Using a within-family identification strategy, we find that first-born sons are slightly more likely than their younger brothers to be successors while their parents are working aged. However, birth order is not predictive of who receives the farm when parents are older or deceased. For later farm transfers, sons who were previously tenant farmers are much more likely than their brothers to be successors, possibly because they are better prepared. Fewer than one-fifth of farmers transfer their farm to any son. Our study relies on rich historical data because current policy prevents the necessary data linkages for studying intergenerational farm succession. Providing a secure system for researchers to link modern agricultural data to population microdata, similar to what has been achieved with other data sources, would yield crucial insights into long-term agricultural policy issues in the US.

Greater adoption of renewable energy technologies by households is a key component of decarbonization and energy transition goals. Although existing literature has examined how sociodemographic characteristics, “green” preferences, and peer effects impact adoption of new energy technology, the role of behavioral preferences has not been adequately studied. In this paper, we examine the effect of two types of behavioral preferences, namely the degree of risk tolerance (risk preference) and attitude toward delayed reward (time preference) on the contract decision to lease or own a solar photovoltaic (PV) system. We develop a theoretical framework to show that the effect of risk and time preferences on the relative utilities from the two contracts is monotonic: Lower risk aversion and lower discount rate (more patience) imply a higher chance of solar PV ownership. To test these predictions empirically, we first estimate preference parameters (risk aversion and discount rate) from laboratory data collected from solar PV adopters. We then combine the parameter estimates with data on actual solar PV contract choice to examine the relationship between solar PV adopters' time and risk preferences and their lease-versus-own choice. Our regression results confirm that less risk averse individuals have a higher tendency to choose the ownership option, whereas more patient individuals are (weakly) more likely to own their solar PV systems. These findings contribute to a greater understanding of the role of behavioral factors in household decisions related to energy technologies.

Reducing animal-based food production would not only reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions but also free land that could sequester carbon. We examine the efficiency of a subsidy to cattle farmers for setting aside land for natural ecosystem regeneration. We develop a partial equilibrium model of the cattle sector that integrates land use, greenhouse gas emissions, and animal feeding. We compare the subsidy to alternative policies: a meat tax and a standard on animal feeding. We identify the conditions under which the subsidy is the best alternative to these other second-best policies. The efficiency of the subsidy lies in its effects on both the extensive margin (reduced quantity of meat) and the intensive margin (production intensification, which reduces both the emission and land-use intensities of meat). An empirical application to France, where spontaneous regeneration corresponds mostly to forest regrowth, shows that the subsidy dominates the other alternative policies considered for a wide range of parameter values but is sensitive to carbon leakage when the economy is open to trade.

Nonreciprocal trade preference (NRTP) programs have proliferated in recent decades as a means to facilitate export-led growth for beneficiary countries. However, evidence on the efficacy of NRTPs in promoting agricultural exports from preference beneficiaries to preference donors has been mixed. We investigate the impacts of NRTPs on such trade in a structural gravity setting for 23 major agricultural commodities prominent in the export baskets of developing countries. Based on estimates from a commodity-level gravity model and the structural foundation of the gravity framework, we quantify the trade impacts of NRTP programs in a counterfactual simulation analysis. Our results show that NRTPs were responsible for around $833 million in elevated annual exports (a 1.7% increase) from NRTP beneficiary countries to donor countries as of 2018, and we document considerable heterogeneity in the countries and commodities that undergo the largest impacts. Our findings thus highlight the evolving role of trade policy as a facilitator of export-driven growth and suggest that NRTP programs are often limited in their capacity to promote agricultural trade.

It is not clear, a priori, whether a centralized or decentralized institutional arrangement is better at providing public goods. This study investigates how decentralization of regulatory authority affects public good provision, focusing on food safety. Using a natural experiment that transfers food safety regulatory authority over the food processing and manufacturing sector from provincial to city-level governments, we find a 51% decrease in the average number of food safety incidents within cities that experienced the decentralization reform. Decentralization reduces food safety incidents by rectifying information asymmetry in food safety regulations and by increasing local food safety laws and regulations. Additional analyses show that decentralization primarily improves the food safety of larger and more experienced firms, and it has not harmed the total revenue of large-scale food processing and manufacturing firms. Our study demonstrates the importance of information available to regulatory authorities in food safety regulation and highlights the role of local information in the decentralized provision of public goods.

Farmers make production decisions despite future output price uncertainty. As a result, farmers' expectation of future output price is an important determinant of investment and the supply of commodities. However, our understanding of the process by which farmers form their expectations is still limited. This study uses direct measures of farmers' financial condition expectations collected through the Purdue University–CME Group Ag Economy Barometer to measure the effect of surprise information on farmers' short- and long-term expectations. The effect is identified using an event study framework previously used to examine the impact of market information on commodity futures markets. Using ordered logistic regressions and variation between professional and United States Department of Agriculture forecasts of corn ending stocks, we demonstrate that farmers' short-term expectations of the financial condition of the broader agricultural economy is altered by surprise information. This study provides a novel step toward understanding the process by which farmers incorporate new information in their price expectations. For example, our findings suggest that farmers perceive short-term corn market information surprises will affect the U.S. agricultural sector to a greater degree than their farm. Additionally, farmers do not perceive that short-term corn market information surprises will carry long-term implications.

This paper examines the responses of chicken producers to public disclosure of quality information (or categorization) regarding Salmonella in chicken carcasses. Producers exert effort to attain better categorization and shirk when failing to meet the thresholds required for better categorization. Public disclosure reduces this shirking effect. However, some producers shirk even under public disclosure when the threshold for disclosure is too stringent. The results suggest that the most effective quality disclosure policies would either disclose continuous (noncategorical) information or impose fines or other sanctions on producers attaining the poorest quality.

Choices by farmers—notably what crop to grow, where—are not only influenced by spatially sensitive environmental attributes but also economic factors that respond to changes in government policies. In South Africa, the policy stance toward agriculture swung toward an extended period of support spanning the middle of the 20th century. Subsequently, the agricultural support policies were eliminated in the post-Apartheid period beginning in the 1990s. Using a purpose-built, spatially explicit data set for South African agriculture spanning the period 1918–2015, we show these structural shifts in agricultural policy regimes concord with major shifts in national corn price trends and variability, and the area planted to corn (accounting for half the country's cropped area). More subtly, and much less studied, we reveal that these switching policy regimes also aligned with changes in the location of crop production, with pronounced consequences for crop output and climate risk. At its peak, policy-aligned crop movement in South Africa reduced corn output by between 7.9% and 15.3%, and placed production in areas with reduced and riskier rainfall patterns. Upon removal of the policy distortions, the decline in total corn area continued, and the crop largely reverted to its predistorted, less climate-risky geographical locations. The geographical sensitivities of the agricultural policy–production–climate risk nexus we reveal suggest these locational aspects deserve more concerted analytical and policy design attention, especially in light of the longer run, spatially sensitive production and food security risk implications of the changing climate realities facing agriculture the world over.

In their in situ habitat, renewable resource populations are subject to stochastic growth caused by environmental variability such as fluctuations in upwelling conditions or temperature. In this paper, we examine the effects of this type of uncertainty on the noncooperative harvest decisions made by harvesters exploiting a common-pool renewable resource. To do this, we extend the related literature on dynamic resource extraction games based on Markov strategies to allow for asymmetric extraction costs and general economic, biological, and environmental conditions. We find equilibrium behaviors that can reverse conventional wisdom. For example, in response to increasing risk caused by anticipated higher variability in biological growth, a harvester may choose to enhance conservation efforts, whereas another harvester diminishes his escapement. Increasing risk can lead to conflicts as it may increase a harvester's payoff while causing a loss to another harvester. In response to an increase in the discount rate, we find that strategic interactions can give rise to greater conservation efforts. Overall, this paper highlights the importance of adequately accounting for uncertainty and strategic behaviors in renewable resource management.