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Heterogeneity, climate change, and crop yield distributions: Solvency implications for publicly subsidized crop insurance programs 异质性、气候变化和作物产量分布:政府补贴作物保险计划的偿付能力影响
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-07 DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12446
Daniel Schuurman, Alan Ker
Climate change continues to fuel concern about the future cost of publicly subsidized crop insurance programs in developed nations. These changes in climate are expected to alter the upper and lower tails of crop yield distributions differently. This may best be captured by modeling the climate–yield relationship heterogeneously across different parts of the yield distribution. To this end, we consider a mixture model with the parameters expressed as nonparametric functions (to capture any nonlinearities) of weather variables estimated by machine learning methods (neural net). By doing so, we are able to identify possibly heterogeneous effects of climate change on each component, the mixing probabilities, and thus all moments of the yield distribution. We find changing climate alters, quite significantly, the entire shape of the yield distribution. The overall probability of the lower tail tends to increase as temperatures rise, to the point where some yield distributions become positively skewed. Across a range of climate change scenarios, premium rates for fixed guarantees are expected to rise 20–66% relative to no climate change by 2040. However, if we allow the yield guarantees to also fall because of additional losses from climate change, premium rates (albeit not comparable given yield guarantees are different) increase notably less (6–14%), suggesting less solvency issues than first thought.
气候变化继续加剧人们对发达国家政府补贴作物保险计划未来成本的担忧。这些气候变化预计会对作物产量分布的上尾和下尾产生不同的改变。通过对产量分布不同部分的气候-产量关系进行异质性建模,可以最好地捕捉到这一点。为此,我们考虑建立一个混合模型,其参数用机器学习方法(神经网络)估算的天气变量的非参数函数表示(以捕捉任何非线性)。通过这种方法,我们能够确定气候变化对每个成分、混合概率可能产生的不同影响,从而确定产量分布的所有时刻。我们发现,气候变化会显著改变产量分布的整体形状。随着气温升高,低尾的总体概率趋于增加,以至于某些产量分布变得正倾斜。在各种气候变化情景下,预计到 2040 年,固定担保的保费率将比无气候变化时上升 20-66%。然而,如果我们允许收益保证也因气候变化造成的额外损失而下降,则保费率(尽管因收益保证不同而无法比较)的增幅会明显降低(6-14%),这表明偿付能力问题比最初想象的要少。
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引用次数: 0
Making a difference through trusted, high-quality research and statistics 通过值得信赖的高质量研究和统计数据发挥作用
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-30 DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12459
Mary Bohman

As applied and agricultural economists, Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) members work to provide high quality research and data to inform policy decisions. How do we ensure that decision makers see, and use, our research findings or data in the policy formulation process that includes many actors? The paper provides a framework for how information flows during the policy process and a strategy for effective research and data built around five equally important attributes: relevance; quality; trust; diversity, equity, and inclusion; and communication. Examples illustrate how the attributes lead to high impact information and focus on two federal research and statistics agencies, the Economic Research Service and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The paper concludes with strategies and examples of metrics to measure the impact of research and statistics.

作为应用经济学家和农业经济学家,农业与amp; 应用经济学协会 (AAEA) 的成员致力于提供高质量的研究和数据,为决策提供信息。我们如何确保决策者在包括众多参与者的政策制定过程中看到并使用我们的研究成果或数据?本文为政策制定过程中的信息流动提供了一个框架,并围绕以下五个同等重要的属性为有效的研究和数据提供了一个战略:相关性;质量;信任;多样性、公平性和包容性;沟通。本文以两个联邦研究和统计机构--经济研究服务局和经济分析局为例,说明了这些属性如何产生高影响力的信息。本文最后介绍了衡量研究与统计影响力的策略和指标示例。
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引用次数: 0
Spatially coordinated conservation auctions: A framed field experiment focusing on farmland wildlife conservation in China 空间协调保护拍卖:以中国农田野生动物保护为重点的框架田间试验
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-01-29 DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12447
Zhaoyang Liu, Simanti Banerjee, Timothy N. Cason, Nick Hanley, Qi Liu, Jintao Xu, Andreas Kontoleon

How best to incentivize land managers to achieve conservation goals in an economically and ecologically effective manner is a key policy question that has gained increased relevance from the setting of ambitious new global targets for biodiversity conservation. Conservation (reverse) auctions are a policy tool for improving the environmental performance of agriculture, which has become well-established in the academic literature and in policy making in the US and Australia. However, little is known about the likely response of farmers to incentives within such an auction to (1) increase spatial connectivity and (2) encourage collective participation. This paper presents the first framed field experiment with farmers as participants that examines the effects of two features of conservation policy design: joint (collective) participation by farmers and the incentivization of spatial connectivity. The experiment employs farmers in China, a country making increasing use of payments for ecosystem services to achieve a range of environmental objectives. We investigate whether auction performance—both economic and ecological—can be improved by the introduction of agglomeration bonus and joint bidding bonus mechanisms. Our empirical results suggest that, compared to a baseline spatially coordinated conservation auction, the performance of an auction with an agglomeration bonus, a joint bidding bonus, or both, is inferior on two key metrics—the environmental benefits generated and cost effectiveness realized.

如何最好地激励土地管理者以经济和生态有效的方式实现保护目标,是一个关键的政策问题,由于制定了雄心勃勃的全球生物多样性保护新目标,这个问题变得越来越重要。保护(反向)拍卖是一种改善农业环境绩效的政策工具,在美国和澳大利亚的学术文献和政策制定中已得到广泛认可。然而,人们对农民可能对这种拍卖中的激励措施(1)增加空间连通性和(2)鼓励集体参与的反应知之甚少。本文首次提出了以农民为参与者的框架田间试验,考察了保护政策设计的两个特征的效果:农民的联合(集体)参与和空间连通性激励。该实验以中国农民为参与者,中国越来越多地使用生态系统服务补偿来实现一系列环境目标。我们研究了引入集聚奖励和联合竞标奖励机制是否能提高拍卖的经济和生态绩效。我们的实证结果表明,与基线空间协调保护拍卖相比,在两个关键指标--产生的环境效益和实现的成本效益--上,采用集聚奖励、联合竞标奖励或两者兼有的拍卖绩效较差。
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引用次数: 0
Explaining the source of racial disparities in market facilitation program payments 解释市场促进计划付款中种族差异的来源
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-29 DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12444
Nathan P. Hendricks, Ashling M. Murphy, Stephen N. Morgan, Samantha L. Padilla, Nigel Key
This paper provides new insights on the distribution of agricultural government payments by farm operator race and the sources of disparities. We use farm-level data from the Census of Agriculture to estimate the payments each farm was eligible to receive from the 2018 and 2019 Market Facilitation Program. We find that farms with a White operator were eligible to receive significantly more payments than farms with a non-White operator. Most of the disparity for farms with a Black operator is due to differences in average farm size, because there are few large farms with a Black operator. The disparities for farms with an American Indian, Asian, or Pacific Islander operator were roughly half due to farm size and half due to the location of these farms and the types of commodities they tend to produce.
本文就按农场经营者种族划分的农业政府补贴分配情况以及差距的来源提供了新的见解。我们利用农业普查的农场级数据,估算了每个农场有资格从 2018 年和 2019 年市场促进计划中获得的付款。我们发现,白人经营者的农场有资格获得的补贴明显多于非白人经营者的农场。黑人经营者农场的大部分差距是由于农场平均规模的差异造成的,因为黑人经营者的大型农场很少。有美国印第安人、亚裔或太平洋岛民经营者的农场的差距,大约一半是由于农场规模,另一半是由于这些农场的位置及其倾向于生产的商品种类。
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引用次数: 0
Award winning theses 获奖论文
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-29 DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12448
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引用次数: 0
The looming demographic cliff: A wake-up call for the agricultural and applied economics profession 迫在眉睫的人口悬崖:为农业和应用经济学专业敲响警钟
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-28 DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12457
Rodolfo M. Nayga Jr, Jianhui Liu, Bachir Kassas

The looming demographic cliff, characterized by a projected decline in college student enrollment, can have important impacts for the agricultural and applied economics profession, academic departments, and universities more broadly across the US. This decline will not only affect the financial stability and sustainability of many agricultural economics departments but also the number of high-skilled professionals available for the agricultural industry, government bodies, and academia. This article discusses the main factors leading to the demographic cliff, as well as potential strategies for curbing its negative impacts on the profession. In the face of this challenge, it is important to develop a thoughtful, proactive, and strategic approach, and to engage industry, government, and academic partnerships.

迫在眉睫的人口悬崖,其特点是大学生入学率预计会下降,这可能会对全美的农业和应用经济学专业、学术部门和大学产生重要影响。这一下降不仅会影响许多农业经济系的财务稳定性和可持续性,还会影响农业产业、政府机构和学术界可利用的高技能专业人才的数量。本文讨论了导致人口悬崖的主要因素,以及遏制其对专业负面影响的潜在策略。面对这一挑战,重要的是要制定一种深思熟虑、积极主动的战略方法,并与产业界、政府和学术界建立伙伴关系。
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引用次数: 0
Holly Wang 王冬青博士
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-24 DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12454
Holly Wang
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引用次数: 0
Elena Irwin 埃琳娜-欧文
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-24 DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12453
Elena Irwin
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引用次数: 0
Marc Bellemare 马克-贝勒马尔
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-24 DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12456
Marc Bellemare
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引用次数: 0
Rodolfo M. Nayga, Jr Dr. Rodolfo M. Nayga, Jr.
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-23 DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12458
Rodolfo M. Nayga Jr
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引用次数: 0
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American Journal of Agricultural Economics
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