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Urban PM2.5 concentrations in a small Colombian city and the impact associated with particle emissions generated by small-scale lime production 哥伦比亚一个小城市的PM2.5浓度及其与小规模石灰生产产生的颗粒排放相关的影响
4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-06-05 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53212
Rafael Contreras Rengifo, Lilibeth Escobar Jiménez, María Camila Belalcazar Franco, Pedro José García Delgado, Lars Gidhagen, José Joaquín Vivas Moreno
The stricter guidelines for fine particles PM2.5 recently published by the World Health Organization also motivate smaller cities to assess the exposure levels. In this study, PM2.5 was assessed in the municipality of Vijes, an important lime production center in the Cauca River Valley, Colombia. The main objective was to determine PM2.5 concentration levels in the urban background of the city and to estimate the contribution from industrial sources located west of the urbanized area. The assessment of PM2.5 concentrations in a city without fixed air quality monitors, meteorological stations, and information on emission sources, was designed to be expedient and possible to perform with a very restricted budget. Four low-cost optical sensors and one low-cost meteorological station were installed during two separate campaigns, each three to four months long. The PM2.5 measurements were analyzed with the support of meteorological data and dispersion modeling. Mean levels of PM2.5 in the urban background were found to be below the Colombian limit value of 25 µg m–3, in the range of 14 to 19 µg m–3, and with lower levels in the city center. The monitor located in the westernmost urban area, closest to the industrial plants, registered a high 24-h mean level close to the national limit value. The industrial contribution to long-term PM2.5 concentrations in the urban background of Vijes was estimated to be within a maximum of 6 µg m–3, i.e., a minor fraction of the monitored PM2.5 mean levels in the urban background. The dominating part of the PM2.5 concentrations could be attributed to other anthropogenic sources within or east of Vijes, as well as originating from the regional background concentration characterizing the Cauca River Valley to the east of Vijes, where pre-harvest sugar cane burning is common.
世界卫生组织(World Health Organization)最近发布的更严格的细颗粒物PM2.5指南也促使小城市评估暴露水平。在本研究中,对哥伦比亚考卡河谷重要石灰生产中心维耶斯市的PM2.5进行了评估。主要目的是确定城市背景下的PM2.5浓度水平,并估计城市化地区西部工业来源的贡献。在一个没有固定空气质量监测站、气象站和排放源信息的城市,PM2.5浓度的评估是为了方便,并且可以在非常有限的预算下执行。四个低成本光学传感器和一个低成本气象站在两个独立的运动中安装,每个运动持续三到四个月。在气象资料和弥散模型的支持下,对PM2.5测量结果进行了分析。城市背景PM2.5的平均水平低于哥伦比亚的限值25µg - 3,在14 ~ 19µg - 3之间,市中心的水平较低。监测站位于城市最西部地区,离工厂最近,监测到的24小时平均水平接近国家限值。据估计,工业对维耶斯城市背景中长期PM2.5浓度的贡献最大不超过6µg m-3,即仅占城市背景监测PM2.5平均水平的一小部分。PM2.5浓度的主要部分可归因于维耶斯境内或以东的其他人为来源,以及来自维耶斯以东考卡河谷的区域背景浓度,在那里收割前焚烧甘蔗是常见的。
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引用次数: 0
Will Mexico meet its climate commitments? 墨西哥会履行其气候承诺吗?
IF 1.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-05-12 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53174
X. Cruz-Nuñez
In its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Mexico is committed to reducing unconditionally 22 and 51% of its emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and black carbon, respectively, by 2030, with an emission peak in 2026. Additional reductions of 36 and 70%, respectively, are proposed conditioned to support from other parties. In this work, the percentage of reduction to reach the emission mitigation targets that Mexico proposed in its NDC is estimated. The results show that in order to meet its unconditional NDC, Mexico should start mitigation in 2020 with a 1.5% reduction rate until 2030 and a 3.3% reduction rate by 2050, to reach an emission peak in 2023. To meet the conditional NDC, a 3.1% emission reduction rate until 2030 should be applied, with peak emission in 2021, and 5.8% from 2030 to 2050. In none of these estimates an emission peak in 2026 matches the NDC mitigation options. Furthermore, none of the emissions reduction pathways estimated in this study fulfills the conditional or unconditional contribution and peaks in 2026 at the same time. Mexico has a long history in international climate policy and is a key emerging economy among the top 15 highest GHG emitters. If Mexico does not achieve its NDC, the international implications, both political and climatic, could put the NDC model at risk if there are more large emitters that do not comply with their contribution.
在其国家自主贡献(NDC)中,墨西哥承诺到2030年无条件地分别减少22%和51%的温室气体和黑碳排放,2026年达到排放峰值。提议的额外削减幅度分别为36%和70%,条件是得到其他各方的支持。在这项工作中,估计了墨西哥在其国家数据中心中提出的达到减排目标的减排百分比。结果显示,为了实现其无条件NDC,墨西哥应在2020年开始减排,到2030年减排1.5%,到2050年减排3.3%,以在2023年达到排放峰值。为了满足有条件的NDC,应在2030年前采用3.1%的减排率,2021年达到峰值,2030年至2050年达到5.8%。在这些估计中,2026年的排放峰值都与NDC的缓解方案不匹配。此外,本研究中估计的减排途径都没有达到有条件或无条件的贡献,并在2026年达到峰值。墨西哥在国际气候政策方面有着悠久的历史,是温室气体排放量排名前15位的主要新兴经济体。如果墨西哥不能实现其国家数据中心,如果有更多的大型排放国不遵守其贡献,那么政治和气候方面的国际影响可能会使国家数据中心模式面临风险。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of climate change on the potential distribution of a dominant, widely distributed oak species, Quercus candicans, in Mexico 气候变化对墨西哥主要、广泛分布的栎属植物的潜在分布的影响
IF 1.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-05-12 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53182
Diego Brizuela‐Torres, Raymundo Villavicencio-García, J. A. Ruiz-Corral, Á. Cuervo-Robayo
Mexican temperate forests are among the most biodiverse in the world. At present, they face anthropogenic pressures and climatic changes. Quercus candicans is a canopy-dominant, widely distributed species common in the moist habitats of these ecosystems. Its ecological importance, habitat vulnerability, and wide distribution make it a useful model of the vulnerability of Mexican tree forest species to climate change. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate future climatic suitability for this species and its potential range shifts under two emissions scenarios and three-time frames. We also identified areas where novel climates could arise and where predictions should be interpreted cautiously. Additionally, we analyzed how climatic suitability could change across the national protected areas system. In both emissions scenarios, areas with suitable climatic conditions were predicted to experience a net reduction of more than 40% by 2070. This corresponds to more than 100 000 km2 becoming climatically unsuitable. In the national protected areas, we forecast a contraction of approximately 30%. Climatic novelty increased considerably in the higher emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), accounting for 10% of the Mexican temperate mountains, compared to 1% on RCP 4.5. Areas of expansion of suitability not intersected by novel climates occur in areas highly affected by land-use change and other anthropogenic pressures. Effective protection of temperate forests’ tree species such as Q. candicans would need to allow migrations across altitudinal gradients, as areas of stability and expansion of climatic suitability are forecasted to occur at higher altitude sections of mountain ranges.
墨西哥温带森林是世界上生物多样性最强的森林之一。目前,它们面临着人为压力和气候变化。白栎是一种以树冠为主、分布广泛的物种,常见于这些生态系统的潮湿栖息地。其生态重要性、栖息地脆弱性和广泛分布使其成为墨西哥树木森林物种对气候变化脆弱性的有用模型。我们使用生态位模型来估计该物种未来的气候适宜性及其在两种排放情景和三个时间框架下的潜在范围变化。我们还确定了可能出现新气候的地区,以及应该谨慎解释预测的地区。此外,我们还分析了整个国家保护区系统的气候适宜性如何变化。在这两种排放情景中,气候条件合适的地区预计到2070年将净减少40%以上。这相当于超过100 000平方公里变得气候不适宜。在国家保护区,我们预计将收缩约30%。在高排放情景下(RCP 8.5),气候新颖性显著增加,占墨西哥温带山脉的10%,而RCP 4.5为1%。不与新气候相交的适宜性扩展区域发生在受土地利用变化和其他人为压力高度影响的区域。有效保护温带森林的树种,如Q.candicans,需要允许跨越海拔梯度的迁徙,因为预计稳定和气候适宜性扩大的地区将发生在山脉的高海拔地区。
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引用次数: 0
The AMS Global Partners Program AMS全球合作伙伴计划
IF 1.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2022-10-27 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53238
W. Dabberdt, D. Baumgardner
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引用次数: 0
Development of high-resolution annual climate surfaces for Turkey using ANUSPLIN and comparison with other methods 利用ANUSPLIN开发土耳其高分辨率年度气候面并与其他方法进行比较
IF 1.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2022-09-29 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53189
I. Yener
Many climate models have been developed because of the importance of climatic factors' effects on the physical and biological environment, e.g., rock weathering, species distribution, and growth patterns of plants. Accurate, reliable climate surfaces are necessary, especially for countries such as Turkey, which has a complex terrain and limited monitoring stations. The accuracy of these models mainly depends on the spatial modeling methods used. In this study, Australian National University spline (ANUSPLIN) model was used to develop climate surfaces and was compared with other methods such as inverse distance weighting, Co-Kriging, lapse rate, and multilinear regression. The results from the developed climate surfaces were validated using three methods: (1) diagnostic statistics from the surface fitting model, such as signal, mean, root mean square predictive error, root mean square error estimate, root mean square residual of the spline, and estimate of the standard deviation of the noise in the spline; (2) a comparison of error statistics between interpolated surfaces with and the withheld climate data from 81 stations; and (3) a comparison with other interpolation methods using model performance metrics, such as mean absolute error, mean error, root mean square error, and R2adj. The most accurate results were obtained by the ANUSPLIN model. It explained 95%, 88%, 92%, and 71% of the variance in annual mean, minimum and maximum temperature, and total precipitation, respectively. The mean absolute error of these models was 0.63 °C, 1.16 °C, 0.72 °C, and 54.82 mm. The generated climate surfaces, having a spatial resolution of 0.005º x 0.005º could contribute to the fields of forestry, agriculture, and hydrology.
由于气候因子对自然和生物环境的影响,如岩石风化、物种分布和植物生长模式的重要性,许多气候模型已经被开发出来。准确、可靠的气候表是必要的,特别是对土耳其这样地形复杂、监测站有限的国家来说。这些模型的准确性主要取决于所采用的空间建模方法。本研究采用澳大利亚国立大学样条(ANUSPLIN)模型发展气候表面,并比较了其他方法,如逆距离加权、Co-Kriging、递减率和多元线性回归。利用3种方法对发达气候面结果进行验证:(1)基于表面拟合模型的诊断统计量,包括信号、均值、均方根预测误差、均方根误差估计、样条的均方根残差和样条噪声的标准差估计;(2)比较了81个台站气候资料插值面与保留面误差统计;(3)与其他使用模型性能指标(如平均绝对误差、平均误差、均方根误差和R2adj)的插值方法进行比较。ANUSPLIN模型得到了最准确的结果。它分别解释了95%、88%、92%和71%的年平均、最低和最高气温和总降水量的方差。模型的平均绝对误差分别为0.63°C、1.16°C、0.72°C和54.82 mm。生成的气候面空间分辨率为0.005ºx 0.005º,可用于林业、农业和水文领域。
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引用次数: 2
Spatiotemporal distributions of ultraviolet radiation from OMI orbital data and relationships with Total O3 and Total NO2Spatiotemporal distributions of ultraviolet radiation from OMI orbital data and relationships with Total O3 and Total NO2 OMI轨道数据紫外辐射时空分布及其与总O3和总NO2的关系
IF 1.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2022-09-29 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53159
Adriana Becerra Rondón, J. Ducati, R. Haag
Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) plays a key role in the photochemistry of the atmosphere, through absorption or dispersion processes by its constituents (ozone, cloudiness, aerosols, and pollutants in the troposphere). Quantifying UVR in a spatial-temporal way and knowing its relationships with modulating variables is important for Rio Grande do Sul State, a region with one of the highest skin neoplasms rates in Brazil. Ultraviolet radiation data for the region, acquired by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) for the 2006 to 2020 period, and expressed in terms of Erythemal Daily Dose (EDD), was used in this study, with the objectives of quantifying UVR incidence, its stability in time and spatial distribution. Our results show that for this study area the radiation varies from 3300 to 3700 J/m2, with a latitudinal gradient of 66.7 J/m2 per degree, with maxima recorded in December (6028 J/m2, summer) and minima in June (1123 J/m2, winter). 29.76% of the area had a long-term decreasing trend (z value =5), while 6.19% of the area had an increasing trend (z value=2). During the studied period of fifteen years, occurrences of high values of Erythemal Daily Dose are negatively correlated with Total O3 as the dominant relationship, being also recorded positive or negative correlations with Total NO2, depending of the investigated epoch or region.
紫外线辐射(UVR)通过其成分(臭氧、云层、气溶胶和对流层中的污染物)的吸收或扩散过程,在大气的光化学中起着关键作用。以时空方式量化紫外线辐射并了解其与调节变量的关系,对于巴西皮肤肿瘤发病率最高的地区之一南大德州来说非常重要。本研究采用臭氧监测仪器(OMI) 2006 - 2020年的区域紫外线辐射数据,以红斑日剂量(EDD)表示,目的是量化UVR发生率及其时空分布的稳定性。结果表明:研究区辐射在3300 ~ 3700 J/m2之间变化,纬度梯度为66.7 J/m2 /度,其中12月最大(夏季6028 J/m2), 6月最小(冬季1123 J/m2)。29.76%的面积长期呈下降趋势(z值=5),6.19%的面积长期呈上升趋势(z值=2)。在15年的研究期间,红斑日剂量高值的发生与总O3负相关,是主要关系,也与总NO2正相关或负相关,取决于调查的时代或地区。
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引用次数: 0
Synoptic characteristics of the spatial variability of spring dust storms over Saudi Arabia 沙特阿拉伯春季沙尘暴空间变率的天气学特征
IF 1.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2022-09-29 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53167
Khaled A. Al-abbasi, A. Labban, A. Awad
Statistical and synoptic studies of spring dust storms over the Arabian Peninsula (AP) were performed using surface observations from 27 surface stations and meteorological data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set for the period from 1978 to 2008. The study showed that, spatially, the northern and eastern AP are the most affected by dust storms and that, temporally, the study period can be divided into two subperiods before and after 1995, with a pronounced increase before 1995 and a smooth increase (decrease) after 1995 with respect to dust (dust storms) types. The synoptic study reveals three main atmospheric systems: frontal systems over the northern region, Red Sea Trough (RST)-related systems over the western region and thermal low systems over the eastern region. Additionally, the synoptic study shows that all of the atmospheric systems are associated with a favorable pressure (geopotential) gradient area and that the shape and strength of the maximum wind and upper-layer atmospheric regimes are suitable for completely integrating the atmospheric layers. Moreover, the southern thermal low is a common synoptic component of dust-related atmospheric systems, but its effect is particularly pronounced on the atmospheric system of the eastern region.
利用1978 - 2008年阿拉伯半岛27个地面站的地面观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析气象资料,对阿拉伯半岛春季沙尘暴进行了统计和天气学研究。研究表明,从空间上看,AP北部和东部地区受沙尘暴影响最大;从时间上看,研究期可分为1995年前和1995年后两个亚期,1995年前沙尘(沙尘暴)类型明显增加,1995年后沙尘(沙尘暴)类型平稳增加(减少)。天气学分析结果表明,此次低气压主要有三个主要的大气系统:北部地区的锋面系统、西部地区的红海槽相关系统和东部地区的热低压系统。此外,天气学研究表明,所有的大气系统都与有利的气压(位势)梯度区有关,最大风和上层大气状态的形状和强度适合于完全整合大气层。此外,南方热低压是与沙尘有关的大气系统的常见天气成分,但其对东部地区大气系统的影响尤为显著。
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引用次数: 0
Very high erythemal doses of ultraviolet radiation around solar noon measured in Arica, northern Chile 在智利北部的阿利卡,太阳午时测量到非常高的红斑紫外线辐射剂量
IF 1.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2022-09-29 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53184
M. Rivas, E. Rojas, D. Laroze, L. Pérez, M. de Paula Corrêa
In general, news media and meteorological bulletins report on the ultraviolet index (UVI) to prevent against overexposure to the sun. However, this information does not reflect the accumulated damage to the skin induced by the total amount of UVR accumulated over time, known as erythemal dose (ED). This study analyzed the UVI and ED measured at 30 and 60 minutes around solar noon (SN) in Arica, North of Chile. The results show that SN ED exceeded the Minimum Erythema Dose (MED) for all the skin types. During the summer, short exposures to sunlight for up to 1 hour may result in sun exposure up to 10 times greater than the acceptable occupational safe limit for unprotected human skin.
一般来说,新闻媒体和气象公报都会报道紫外线指数(UVI),以防止过度暴露在阳光下。然而,该信息并不能反映随着时间的推移累积的UVR总量对皮肤造成的累积损伤,即所谓的红斑剂量(ED)。这项研究分析了在30和在智利北部的阿里卡,太阳正午前后60分钟。结果表明,所有皮肤类型的SN ED均超过了最小红斑剂量(MED)。在夏季,短时间暴露在阳光下长达1小时,可能导致阳光暴露量比未受保护的人类皮肤可接受的职业安全限值高出10倍。
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引用次数: 0
Classification of wintertime daily atmospheric circulation patterns over Brazil 巴西冬季日大气环流型的分类
IF 1.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2022-09-29 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53176
G. Escobar
This study presents a synoptic classification at surface and at 500 hPa during the winter (June, July, and August) over Brazil, in order to identify the main synoptic-scale meteorological systems that influence the weather of this period. Through the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) for the 1979-2020 period, it was identified five main synoptic patterns that predominated during the winter which are practically the same for each of the three analyzed months. The most frequent synoptic pattern is associated with the climatological mean-field (CMF), represented by the two of the most characteristic systems of low-level atmospheric circulation in South America: The South Atlantic Subtropical High (SASH) and the North-Western Argentinean Low (NAL). There are two other synoptic patterns related to a classical cold front over the Southern (CF_SUL) and Southeastern (CF_SE) regions of Brazil, respectively. Finally, two other synoptic patterns are associated with a blocking anticyclone (BAn) and a cyclogenetic (CG) process over the Atlantic Ocean, respectively. Both of them correspond to the most frequent synoptic pattern related to cold waves and "Friagens" over Brazil.
本研究提出了巴西冬季(6、7、8月)地面和500 hPa的天气分类,以确定影响这一时期天气的主要天气尺度气象系统。通过主成分分析(PCA),确定了1979—2020年冬季的5种主要天气模式,且3个分析月份的天气模式基本相同。最常见的天气型与气候平均场(CMF)有关,以南美洲两个最具特征的低层大气环流系统为代表:南大西洋副热带高压(SASH)和西北阿根廷低压(NAL)。在巴西南部(CF_SUL)和东南部(CF_SE)地区,还有另外两个与经典冷锋有关的天气型。最后,另外两种天气型分别与大西洋上空的阻塞反气旋(BAn)和气旋形成(CG)过程有关。它们都与巴西上空最常见的冷潮和“Friagens”天气型相对应。
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引用次数: 0
Historical Change of Winter Chill Accumulation in Some Regions of Turkey 土耳其部分地区冬季寒积的历史变化
IF 1.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2022-09-29 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53135
H. Karadağ, K. Yıldız, K. Yürekli
Deciduous fruit trees need to be exposed to low winter temperatures for a certain period time to produce regular crops. In addition to the effects of global warming in many other areas, its effect on cold accumulation is also a reason of concern. As a result, many studies have been carried out in important horticultural areas around the world on the impact of climate change on cold accumulation. In this study, historical changes of cold accumulation calculated using five models were examined in 12 locations in Turkey for the first time. Results show that there was no significant trend in cold accumulation in the provinces of Ankara, Bingöl, Diyarbakır, Malatya, and Tunceli. In some locations, the significance, magnitude, and direction of the chilling trend differed according to the model used. All five models used in the study indicated significant decreases in winter chill accumulation in Şanlıurfa, a site with relatively mild winters. In Erzincan, which has relatively cold winters, increasing trends were detected in cold accumulation calculated according to Utah, Modified Utah, and Positive Utah models. Results show that serious consequences may arise related to the chilling requirement of deciduous fruit trees, especially in regions with mild winters.
落叶果树需要在冬季低温下暴露一段时间才能生产出正常的作物。除了全球变暖在许多其他地区的影响外,它对冷积累的影响也是一个令人担忧的原因。因此,在世界各地的重要园艺地区进行了许多关于气候变化对冷积累影响的研究。在这项研究中,首次在土耳其的12个地点检验了使用五个模型计算的冷积累的历史变化。结果表明,安卡拉省、宾格尔省、迪亚巴克尔省、马拉蒂亚省和通塞利省的冷积累没有显著趋势。在某些地区,根据所使用的模型,降温趋势的重要性、幅度和方向各不相同。研究中使用的所有五个模型都表明,在冬季相对温和的Şanlıurfa,冬季寒冷积累显著减少。在冬季相对寒冷的埃尔津坎,根据犹他州、修正犹他州和正犹他州模型计算的冷积累量有增加的趋势。结果表明,落叶果树的冷藏需求可能会产生严重后果,尤其是在冬季温和的地区。
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引用次数: 0
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Atmosfera
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