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RJDemetra, a promising tool for the seasonal adjustment of official statistics RJDemetra - 用于官方统计数据季节性调整的有前途的工具
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230047
Giancarlo Lutero, Andrea d’Orazio
Seasonal adjustment (SA) is a crucial factor in the process of producing official macroeconomic statistics. The most important SA methods, X-13Arima-Seats and Tramo-Seats, are currently included into JDemetra+, a universal open-source environment, which is available on several platforms and operating systems, as a result of adoption of Java programming language for source codes, and Xml metalanguage for the definition of input specifications. This paper focuses on the potentials of RJDemetra, the R library developed for JDemetra+ suite. Its structure and functionalities will be illustrated with several examples, reporting the associated R scripts. In addition, a new operational practices will be suggested, exposing an alternative procedure to enhance interactive time-series updating in SA revision policies step, and also to ensure consistency checking in input system, in order to improve and to speed up the SA estimation process, providing greater security and efficiency. Finally, the interaction between two very different environments such as SAS-IML, and R will be displayed through a new SAS-R procedure available for estimating Quarterly Accounts SA series.
季节调整(SA)是编制官方宏观经济统计数据过程中的一个关键因素。目前,最重要的季节调整方法 X-13Arima-Seats 和 Tramo-Seats 已被纳入 JDemetra+,这是一个通用的开源环境,可在多个平台和操作系统上使用,因为源代码采用了 Java 编程语言,输入规格的定义采用了 Xml 金属语言。本文重点介绍为 JDemetra+ 套件开发的 R 库 RJDemetra 的潜力。它的结构和功能将通过几个例子加以说明,并报告相关的 R 脚本。此外,还将提出一种新的操作方法,揭示在 SA 修订策略步骤中加强交互式时间序列更新的替代程序,并确保输入系统的一致性检查,以改进和加快 SA 估算过程,提供更高的安全性和效率。最后,将通过一个新的 SAS-R 程序来展示 SAS-IML 和 R 这两个截然不同的环境之间的互动,该程序可用于估算季度账户 SA 序列。
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引用次数: 0
Anomaly detection in trade declarations using deep learning techniques: A risk-assessment approach to identify misclassification and incorrect valuation 利用深度学习技术检测贸易申报中的异常情况:识别错误分类和错误估值的风险评估方法
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-11 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230081
Benjamin Chan, Ian Ng, Natalie Chung
In Hong Kong, merchandise trade statistics are compiled based on the commodity information given on the trade declarations submitted by traders. Due to the complexity of the standardised commodity classification system (i.e. Hong Kong Harmonized System, or HKHS in short), there are often reporting errors, especially in the commodity codes and quantities. With around 20 million declarations received annually, the availability of this big data source motivates us to adopt deep learning techniques to detect the reporting errors. This paper proposes a mechanism consisting of three deep learning models for checking the commodity code, quantity and value, which offers an end-to-end solution to data quality assurance for declarations. The results show that the proposed mechanism could enhance the accuracy of error detection, which is conducive to improving the quality of trade statistics. With the use of text analytics techniques, the mechanism could fully utilise free-text commodity descriptions declared by traders to check the accuracy of the declared information comprehensively. It also overcomes some limitations of the traditional rule-based models. The whole study demonstrates the potential of using deep learning approach in quality assurance of existing statistical systems for official statistics.
在香港,商品貿易統計數字是根據貿易商提交的貿易報關單上的商品資料編製。由于标准化商品分类系统(即香港商品名称及编码协调制度,简称港货协制)的复杂性,经常会出现申报错误,尤其是在商品代码和数量方面。由于每年收到约 2,000 万份申报,这一庞大数据源促使我们采用深度学习技术来检测申报错误。本文提出了一种由三个深度学习模型组成的机制,用于检查商品代码、数量和价值,为申报数据质量保证提供了端到端的解决方案。结果表明,所提出的机制可以提高错误检测的准确性,有利于提高贸易统计数据的质量。利用文本分析技术,该机制可充分利用贸易商申报的自由文本商品描述,全面检查申报信息的准确性。它还克服了传统规则模型的一些局限性。整个研究表明,在现有官方统计系统的质量保证中使用深度学习方法大有可为。
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引用次数: 0
Data science skills for the next generation of statisticians 下一代统计人员的数据科学技能
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230060
Laura Antonucci, Antonio Balzanella, Elvira Bruno, Crocetta Crocetta, S. Zio, Lara Fontanella, M. Sanarico, Bruno Scarpa, Rosanna Verde, Giorgio Vittadini
This paper analyses the future prospects of statistics as a profession and how data science will change it. Indeed, according to Hadley Wickham, Chief Scientist at Rstudio, “a data scientist is a useful statistician”, establishing a strong connection between data science and applied statistics. In this direction, the aim is to look to the future by proposing a structural approach to future scenarios. Some possible definitions of data science are then discussed, considering the relationship with statistics as a scientific discipline. The focus then turns to an assessment of the skills required by the labor market for data scientists and the specific characteristics of this profession. Finally, the phases of a data science project are considered, outlining how these can be exploited by a statistician.
本文分析了统计学作为一种专业的未来前景,以及数据科学将如何改变它。事实上,根据 Rstudio 首席科学家 Hadley Wickham 的说法,"数据科学家就是有用的统计学家",这在数据科学和应用统计之间建立了紧密的联系。在这一方向上,我们的目标是通过提出一种针对未来情景的结构性方法来展望未来。然后讨论了数据科学的一些可能定义,并考虑了与作为科学学科的统计学之间的关系。然后,重点转向评估劳动力市场对数据科学家所需的技能以及这一职业的具体特点。最后,考虑了数据科学项目的各个阶段,概述了统计学家如何利用这些阶段。
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引用次数: 0
An R package for automatically generating candidate correspondence tables between classifications 一个R包,用于自动生成分类之间的候选对应表
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230039
Martin Karlberg, Vasilis Chasiotis, Photis Stavropoulos, Christine Laaboudi, Mátyás Mészárosa, Despoina-Avgerini Nasiopoulou
Many statistical classifications exist in a statistical ecosystem, where they are interlinked with other classifications. When statistics on the same topic are compiled using different classifications, they need to be transformed in order to become comparable by means of a correspondence table – but sometimes, no correspondence table between the two classifications involved exists. This paper presents the newly developed ‘correspondenceTables’ R package, available on CRAN, which automates much of the ‘mechanical’ work required for developing a correspondence table (thus allowing statistical classification experts to focus on tasks with higher value added). Moreover, the paper presents lessons learned along the way, including unforeseen quality issues with the input data (that required considerable efforts to be successfully tackled), and outlines areas for future improvement.
许多统计分类存在于统计生态系统中,它们与其他分类相互联系。当使用不同的分类编制关于同一主题的统计数据时,需要对它们进行转换,以便通过对应表进行比较——但有时,所涉及的两种分类之间不存在对应表。本文介绍了新开发的“对应表”R包,可在CRAN上获得,它自动化了开发对应表所需的大部分“机械”工作(从而允许统计分类专家专注于具有更高附加值的任务)。此外,本文还介绍了在此过程中获得的经验教训,包括输入数据中不可预见的质量问题(需要相当大的努力才能成功解决),并概述了未来改进的领域。
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引用次数: 0
It’s time to build: A small area estimation methodology for time-to-event data 是时候建设了:时间到事件数据的小面积估算方法
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230075
Nelson J.Y. Chua, Benjamin Y.B. Long
There is an ever-present demand for statistical agencies to improve the timeliness, granularity and cost-efficiency of their official statistics. Our methodology for small area estimation using time-to-event data addresses these demands, as it utilises existing data sources to produce timely estimates at finer levels of geography. We illustrate this methodology with our application to the Australian Building Activity Survey, which has been successfully repurposed to obtain small area estimates of newly completed dwellings with associated uncertainty estimates. The methodology is widely applicable, and we discuss further subject areas where it can be introduced to improve value for users of official statistics.
统计机构对提高其官方统计数据的及时性、精细度和成本效益的要求一直存在。我们利用时间到事件数据进行小范围估算的方法可以满足这些要求,因为它利用现有数据源,在更细的地理层次上进行及时估算。我们将这一方法应用于澳大利亚建筑活动调查,并对其进行了成功的重新利用,以获得新竣工住宅的小区域估算值及相关的不确定性估算值。该方法具有广泛的适用性,我们还讨论了可引入该方法的更多主题领域,以提高官方统计数据对用户的价值。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding financial distress by using Markov random fields on linked administrative data 利用关联行政数据的马尔可夫随机场了解财务困境
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-04 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230028
Floris Fonville, P. G. V. D. Heijden, Arno P.J.M. Siebes, D. Oberski
Household financial distress is a complicated problem. Several social problems have been identified as potential risk factors. Conversely, financial distress has also been identified as a risk factor for some of those social problems. Graphical models can be used to better understand the co-dependencies between these problems. In this approach, problem variables are network nodes and the relations between them are represented by weighted edges. Linked administrative data on social service usage by 6,848 households from neighbourhoods with a high proportion of social housing were used to estimate a pairwise Markov random field with binary variables. The main challenges in graph estimation from data are (a) determining which nodes are directly connected by edges and (b) assigning weights to those edges. The eLasso method used in psychological networks addresses both these challenges. In the resulting graph financial distress occupies a central position that connects to both youth related problems as well as adult social problems. The graph approach contributes to a better theoretical understanding of financial distress and it offers valuable insights to social policy makers.
家庭财务困境是一个复杂的问题。一些社会问题已被确定为潜在的风险因素。相反,财务困境也被认为是其中一些社会问题的风险因素。图形模型可用于更好地理解这些问题之间的共同依赖关系。在这种方法中,问题变量是网络节点,它们之间的关系用加权边来表示。来自社会住房比例较高的社区的 6,848 个家庭使用社会服务的关联行政数据被用来估算具有二进制变量的成对马尔可夫随机场。根据数据进行图估算的主要挑战在于:(a) 确定哪些节点由边直接连接;(b) 为这些边分配权重。心理网络中使用的 eLasso 方法解决了这两个难题。在由此得出的图中,财务困境占据了中心位置,既与青少年相关问题相连,也与成人社会问题相关。这种图法有助于从理论上更好地理解财务困境,并为社会政策制定者提供宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Māori businesses in Aotearoa New Zealand: Modelling Indigenous enterprise using self-identification and ownership 新西兰奥特亚罗瓦的毛利企业:利用自我认同和所有权建立土著企业模型
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230084
Loretoa Alba Cervantes, Mikab Jason Paul
Identity and ownership are two conceptual pillars used to define Indigenous enterprise. Approaches that use administrative data offer the opportunity to identify Indigenous-owned enterprises without the burden of a survey. It remains unclear, however, if Indigenous-owned enterprises are also likely to self-identify as Indigenous. Thus, in this paper we examine if self-identification as an Indigenous business in Aotearoa New Zealand is driven by Māori ownership. We link information from businesses that had the opportunity to self-identify as Māori in an annual survey with administrative data from Stats NZ’s Integrated Data Infrastructure to calculate their proportion of Māori ownership. Then, we fit models of varying complexity using a Bayesian multilevel approach to predict the probability of self-identification as a Māori business as a function of businesses’ demographic variables and proportion of Indigenous ownership. Using model comparison and out-of-sample predictions we show that Māori ownership is a weak predictor of self-identification as a Māori business. We also show how the probability of self-identification as an Indigenous enterprise changes between regions, sectors, and industries to illustrate the benefits of a quantitative approach to target businesses likely to self-identify as Māori. Predicting the extent to which enterprise owners might choose to self-identify as a Māori business is critical to identifying a robust population of Indigenous businesses and to have better estimates of the Indigenous economy.
身份和所有权是用来界定土著企业的两个概念支柱。使用行政数据的方法为确定土著企业提供了机会,而无需进行调查。然而,土著所有企业是否也有可能自我认定为土著企业,这一点仍不清楚。因此,在本文中,我们研究了在新西兰奥特亚罗瓦,毛利人所有制是否会推动土著企业的自我认同。我们将有机会在年度调查中自我认定为毛利人的企业信息与新西兰统计局综合数据基础设施(Stats NZ's Integrated Data Infrastructure)中的行政数据联系起来,计算出毛利人所有权的比例。然后,我们使用贝叶斯多层次方法拟合了不同复杂程度的模型,以预测自我认定为毛利企业的概率与企业的人口统计学变量和土著所有权比例之间的函数关系。通过模型比较和样本外预测,我们发现毛利人所有权对自我认定为毛利企业的预测作用较弱。我们还展示了不同地区、部门和行业之间自我认定为土著企业的概率是如何变化的,以说明采用定量方法来锁定可能自我认定为毛利人的企业的益处。预测企业主可能选择自我认定为毛利企业的程度,对于确定土著企业的强大人口数量和更好地估计土著经济至关重要。
{"title":"Māori businesses in Aotearoa New Zealand: Modelling Indigenous enterprise using self-identification and ownership","authors":"Loretoa Alba Cervantes, Mikab Jason Paul","doi":"10.3233/sji-230084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3233/sji-230084","url":null,"abstract":"Identity and ownership are two conceptual pillars used to define Indigenous enterprise. Approaches that use administrative data offer the opportunity to identify Indigenous-owned enterprises without the burden of a survey. It remains unclear, however, if Indigenous-owned enterprises are also likely to self-identify as Indigenous. Thus, in this paper we examine if self-identification as an Indigenous business in Aotearoa New Zealand is driven by Māori ownership. We link information from businesses that had the opportunity to self-identify as Māori in an annual survey with administrative data from Stats NZ’s Integrated Data Infrastructure to calculate their proportion of Māori ownership. Then, we fit models of varying complexity using a Bayesian multilevel approach to predict the probability of self-identification as a Māori business as a function of businesses’ demographic variables and proportion of Indigenous ownership. Using model comparison and out-of-sample predictions we show that Māori ownership is a weak predictor of self-identification as a Māori business. We also show how the probability of self-identification as an Indigenous enterprise changes between regions, sectors, and industries to illustrate the benefits of a quantitative approach to target businesses likely to self-identify as Māori. Predicting the extent to which enterprise owners might choose to self-identify as a Māori business is critical to identifying a robust population of Indigenous businesses and to have better estimates of the Indigenous economy.","PeriodicalId":55877,"journal":{"name":"Statistical Journal of the IAOS","volume":"85 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139289675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beyond the binary: Sex and gender diversity in population projections 超越二元:人口预测中的性别和性别多样性
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-12 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230044
Peta Darby, Rachel Jeffreson
For many people, their gender is the same as their sex recorded at birth. For some, gender and sex recorded at birth may not align, or they may not fall exclusively into the binary categories of male or female. There is growing recognition of the need to have quality estimates and projections of the population in a context beyond binary sex and gender. However, there is currently little demographic literature on this topic and production of such data is limited. In this paper, we use the demographic equation as a framework to describe the implications of considering sex and gender diversity in the production of population projections. In doing so, we consider implications for base population estimates, births, deaths and migration. We also consider implications of acknowledging gender as a concept that can change over time. We outline existing Australian and international approaches to data collection and address implications for the formation of projection assumptions. We conclude by outlining possible future directions for forming population projections that consider sex and gender beyond the binary.
对许多人来说,他们的性别与出生时记录的性别相同。对一些人来说,出生时记录的性别和性别可能不一致,或者他们可能不完全属于男性或女性的二元类别。人们日益认识到,需要在二元性和性别以外的范围内对人口进行高质量的估计和预测。然而,目前关于这一主题的人口统计学文献很少,此类数据的编制也很有限。在本文中,我们使用人口方程作为框架来描述在人口预测生产中考虑性别和性别多样性的影响。在此过程中,我们考虑了对基本人口估计数、出生、死亡和移徙的影响。我们还考虑了承认性别是一个可以随着时间而改变的概念的含义。我们概述了现有的澳大利亚和国际数据收集方法,并解决了对形成预测假设的影响。最后,我们概述了未来形成人口预测的可能方向,这些预测将性别和社会性别考虑在二元之外。
{"title":"Beyond the binary: Sex and gender diversity in population projections","authors":"Peta Darby, Rachel Jeffreson","doi":"10.3233/sji-230044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3233/sji-230044","url":null,"abstract":"For many people, their gender is the same as their sex recorded at birth. For some, gender and sex recorded at birth may not align, or they may not fall exclusively into the binary categories of male or female. There is growing recognition of the need to have quality estimates and projections of the population in a context beyond binary sex and gender. However, there is currently little demographic literature on this topic and production of such data is limited. In this paper, we use the demographic equation as a framework to describe the implications of considering sex and gender diversity in the production of population projections. In doing so, we consider implications for base population estimates, births, deaths and migration. We also consider implications of acknowledging gender as a concept that can change over time. We outline existing Australian and international approaches to data collection and address implications for the formation of projection assumptions. We conclude by outlining possible future directions for forming population projections that consider sex and gender beyond the binary.","PeriodicalId":55877,"journal":{"name":"Statistical Journal of the IAOS","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135824854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Interview with Reimund Mink, about his book ‘Official Statistics – A Plaything of Politics? On the interaction of Politics, Official Statistics, and Ethical Principles’1 采访雷蒙德·明克,关于他的书《官方统计——政治的玩物?》论政治、官方统计和伦理原则的相互作用
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-12 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230057
Reimund Mink, a former employee from the European Central Bank recently published the book ‘Official Statistics – A Plaything of Politics? On the interaction of Politics, Official Statistics, and Ethical Principles’. The experience from Reimund with government finance statistics in European but also in many non-European countries is a rich source for dedicated reflections and lessons to learn from the roles that official statistics, (can) play in politics. His book informs in great detail on the backgrounds for and details of the role of official statistics and their political use. Ivo Havinga, former Assistant Director Economics Statistics of the United Nations Statistics Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, managing partner, and academic, and present senior advisor in statistical information systems for sustainable development, was found willing to interview the author Reimund Mink.
欧洲央行前职员雷蒙德•明克最近出版了《官方统计——政治的玩物?》论政治、官方统计和伦理原则的相互作用。芬兰在欧洲以及许多非欧洲国家的政府财政统计方面的经验,为官方统计在政治中所扮演的角色提供了丰富的反思和教训。他的书非常详细地介绍了官方统计数据的背景和作用及其政治用途的细节。联合国经济和社会事务部统计司前经济统计助理主任、管理合伙人、学者、现任可持续发展统计信息系统高级顾问伊沃·哈文加愿意采访作者雷蒙德·明克。
{"title":"Interview with Reimund Mink, about his book ‘Official Statistics – A Plaything of Politics? On the interaction of Politics, Official Statistics, and Ethical Principles’1","authors":"","doi":"10.3233/sji-230057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3233/sji-230057","url":null,"abstract":"Reimund Mink, a former employee from the European Central Bank recently published the book ‘Official Statistics – A Plaything of Politics? On the interaction of Politics, Official Statistics, and Ethical Principles’. The experience from Reimund with government finance statistics in European but also in many non-European countries is a rich source for dedicated reflections and lessons to learn from the roles that official statistics, (can) play in politics. His book informs in great detail on the backgrounds for and details of the role of official statistics and their political use. Ivo Havinga, former Assistant Director Economics Statistics of the United Nations Statistics Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, managing partner, and academic, and present senior advisor in statistical information systems for sustainable development, was found willing to interview the author Reimund Mink.","PeriodicalId":55877,"journal":{"name":"Statistical Journal of the IAOS","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135824855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
SJIAOS Discussion Platform sjiao讨论平台
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-12 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230068
{"title":"SJIAOS Discussion Platform","authors":"","doi":"10.3233/sji-230068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3233/sji-230068","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55877,"journal":{"name":"Statistical Journal of the IAOS","volume":"109 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135824856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Statistical Journal of the IAOS
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