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Youth and civic participation in Côte d’Ivoire 青年人和公民参与Côte科特迪瓦
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230016
Christian Jules Boga Agodio
This article analyses civic participation in general and particularly that of young people in Côte d’Ivoire using data from the Governance, Peace and Security survey, conducted within the framework of the Integrated Regional Survey on Employment and the Informal Sector of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) in 2017 The findings confirm the low level of involvement of the population in general, and of young people in particular, in civic activities, both political and social. This can pose serious threats to the peace, democratisation and development process, as the involvement of citizens in political and social activities is the hallmark of a democratic society and ensures social cohesion and development. Institutional variables (presence of corruption, growing insecurity and mistrust) reduce civic participation, including in political and social life. Young people’s involvement in public activities increases in a controlled, less corrupt environment of public safety in which they have greater trust in the state. The living environment (urban and other rural), professional situation (unemployed, inactive) and standard of living of young people (middle class and wealthy) increase their involvement in public activities. Political and social participation influence one another and civic participation is more marked by political participation.
本文利用2017年西非经济和货币联盟(WAEMU)就业和非正式部门综合区域调查框架内进行的治理、和平与安全调查的数据,分析了科特迪瓦公民的总体参与情况,尤其是年轻人的公民参与情况。调查结果证实,总体而言,科特迪瓦人口,尤其是年轻人,在政治和社会公民活动中的参与度较低。这可能对和平、民主化和发展进程构成严重威胁,因为公民参与政治和社会活动是民主社会的标志,并确保社会凝聚力和发展。制度变量(腐败的存在、日益增长的不安全和不信任)减少了公民参与,包括在政治和社会生活中的参与。在一个受控制的、腐败较少的公共安全环境中,年轻人对国家的信任度更高,他们对公共活动的参与也会增加。年轻人(中产阶级和富人)的生活环境(城市和其他农村)、职业状况(失业、不活动)和生活水平增加了他们对公共活动的参与。政治参与与社会参与相互影响,公民参与更以政治参与为特征。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring governance, democracy and participation: Lessons from two decades of experience in Peru 衡量治理、民主和参与:秘鲁20年经验教训
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230004
Javier Herrera, Nancy Hidalgo, M. Razafindrakoto, F. Roubaud
This paper presents Peru’s unique experience in measuring governance through household surveys. Launched at the initiative of the authors in the early 2000s, and coordinated since then by one of them, this survey module is, to the best of our knowledge, the most ambitious (in terms of the length of series, statistical properties, ownership) ever carried out on a global scale by a national institute of statistics (INEI). The Peruvian experience has contributed to both demonstrating the validity of the approach chosen to measure governance, prior to the adoption of SDG 16 in 2015, and supporting the regular production of indicators on governance, primarily those of SDG 16. The first part provides a brief overview of the Peruvian context and demonstrates the importance of monitoring governance issues in general, and in this country in particular. In the second part, we describe the main methodological options and innovations adopted by INEI since the launch of the module. The third part illustrates the analytical potential of the approach based on a few empirical examples, while the fourth part presents various ways through which the data has been used so far and some institutional challenges faced in promoting the use of governance statistics. Finally, we conclude by drawing key lessons from this initiative and outlining prospects for the future.
本文介绍了秘鲁通过家庭调查衡量治理的独特经验。据我们所知,这一调查模块是国家统计研究所(INEI)有史以来在全球范围内开展的最雄心勃勃的(就系列长度、统计属性和所有权而言)。秘鲁的经验有助于证明在2015年通过可持续发展目标16之前选择的衡量治理的方法的有效性,并支持定期制定治理指标,主要是可持续发展目标的治理指标。第一部分简要概述了秘鲁的情况,并说明了监测治理问题的重要性,尤其是在该国。在第二部分中,我们介绍了自模块推出以来,国家统计研究所采用的主要方法选择和创新。第三部分根据几个实证例子说明了该方法的分析潜力,而第四部分介绍了迄今为止使用数据的各种方式,以及在促进使用治理统计数据方面面临的一些体制挑战。最后,我们总结了从这一倡议中汲取的重要经验教训,并概述了未来的前景。
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引用次数: 0
Quality framework for combining survey, administrative and big data for official statistics 官方统计调查、管理和大数据相结合的质量框架
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.3233/sji-220110
Y. Gootzen, P. Daas, Arnout van Delden
Creating statistics by combining data sources allows for the production of new, more timely and/or more detailed statistics. With an intended statistical output in mind, and various potentially useful data sources, there is a need to assess the potential of each source to contribute to the intended statistic. Quality frameworks provide tools for such tasks. This paper proposes a quality framework that includes dimensions applicable to survey, administrative and big data to support the assessment of the potential of each source to contribute to the intended statistic. The framework is applied to a case study of mobility data and a case study of virus particle detection in sewage data.
通过组合数据源创建统计数据,可以生成新的、更及时和/或更详细的统计数据。考虑到预期的统计输出和各种可能有用的数据源,需要评估每个源对预期统计数据的贡献潜力。质量框架为这些任务提供了工具。本文提出了一个质量框架,其中包括适用于调查、管理和大数据的维度,以支持评估每个来源对预期统计数据的贡献潜力。该框架应用于移动数据的案例研究和污水数据中病毒颗粒检测的案例研究。
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引用次数: 0
Sense of insecurity and profile of crime victims in Mali from 2014 to 2020 2014年至2020年马里犯罪受害者的不安全感和概况
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-21 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230002
S. Cissé, A. Coulibaly, D. Fane, S. Haïdara, A. Sougané
Coupled with both a political and a social crisis, the conflict which Mali has faced since 2012 has been the subject of many studies in the field of social sciences. Despite this, relatively little is known about non-lethal criminal violence, its evolution since the start of the crisis and how it is dealt with by the population. This article helps to bridge these gaps using data from Governance, Peace and Security (GPS) survey modules integrated into the modular and permanent household survey conducted each year since 2014. Given the unparalleled accuracy of GPS data, we are also able to establish a profile of crime victims in Mali. Despite a very high and growing sense of insecurity among the population, victimisation rates saw a steady decline in Mali up until 2019. This positive trend was brought to a halt in 2020 and set off alarm bells. Offences are rarely reported to the public authorities and we try to identify the possible reasons for this. Women, people with no formal education and members of poorer households in particular are generally less likely to be victims of crime. Residents of the regions of Mopti, Tombouctou and Gao tend to be more exposed.
加上政治和社会危机,马里自2012年以来面临的冲突一直是社会科学领域许多研究的主题。尽管如此,人们对非致命性犯罪暴力、自危机开始以来的演变以及民众如何应对这种暴力知之甚少。本文使用自2014年以来每年进行的模块化和永久性家庭调查中集成的治理、和平与安全(GPS)调查模块的数据,帮助弥合这些差距。鉴于全球定位系统数据无与伦比的准确性,我们还能够建立马里犯罪受害者的档案。尽管民众的不安全感很高,而且越来越强烈,但直到2019年,马里的受害率一直在稳步下降。这一积极趋势在2020年被叫停,并敲响了警钟。犯罪行为很少向公共当局报告,我们试图找出可能的原因。妇女、没有受过正规教育的人,尤其是贫困家庭的成员,通常不太可能成为犯罪的受害者。莫普提、汤布图和加奥地区的居民往往更容易暴露在空气中。
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引用次数: 0
Data reconciliation and estimation in an agricultural survey 农业调查中的数据核对和估计
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-16 DOI: 10.3233/sji-220087
Habtamu K Benecha, Denise A. Abreu, Rachael Jennings, Linda J. Young
The Puerto Rico Census of Agriculture (Census) is the leading source of statistics about the island’s agricultural production. The Census is conducted every 5 years, in years ending in 2 and 7. However, the most recent Census was administered in 2018 due to delays caused by Hurricane Maria. Because the Census list frame is incomplete, a separate survey is conducted to inform measures of undercoverage, nonresponse, and misclassification, leading to adjusted weights. At the time of Hurricane Maria, the 2017 survey had already been conducted in preparation for the planned Census that year. In 2018, the survey was repeated using the same sample. Linking and analyzing the 2017 and 2018 survey data provide insights into the impacts of Hurricane Maria on the island’s agriculture. Furthermore, the 2018 survey gives an opportunity to evaluate the 2018 Census results. Although the same sample was used in 2017 and 2018, automated record linkage methods are not suitable to link records from the two surveys. This paper discusses record linkage and estimation approaches used to determine the number of farms and land in farms in Puerto Rico before and after Hurricane Maria based on the two surveys and the Census of Agriculture.
波多黎各农业普查(普查)是该岛农业生产统计数据的主要来源。人口普查每五年进行一次,在以2和7结尾的年份进行。然而,由于飓风玛丽亚造成的延误,最近一次人口普查是在2018年进行的。由于普查清单框架不完整,因此进行了单独的调查,以告知覆盖不足、无反应和错误分类的措施,从而调整权重。在玛丽亚飓风发生时,2017年的调查已经进行,为当年计划的人口普查做准备。2018年,使用相同的样本重复了这项调查。将2017年和2018年的调查数据联系起来并进行分析,可以深入了解飓风玛丽亚对该岛农业的影响。此外,2018年的调查提供了一个评估2018年人口普查结果的机会。虽然2017年和2018年使用了相同的样本,但自动记录链接方法不适合链接两次调查的记录。本文以两次调查和农业普查为基础,讨论了飓风玛丽亚前后波多黎各农场和农场土地数量的记录联系和估计方法。
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引用次数: 0
Developing and hosting web data apps in R programming for official statistics 用R语言开发和托管web数据应用程序,用于官方统计
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-16 DOI: 10.3233/sji-220093
Stratos Moschidis, Athanasios C. Thanopoulos, Christina Karamichalakou
Official statistics place particular emphasis on communication and dissemination of surveys’ results to citizens and stakeholders. This is typically done through the publication of press releases and presentation of aggregated data of statistical surveys. The use of web services and software that allow users to interact with the results of official statistics comes to further enhance communication, dissemination, literacy and overall quality of official statistics. This paper is related to the objectives and context of reaching a wider audience through engaging users and explains how an NSO (National Statistical Office) member without specialized knowledge of frontend-backend programming techniques can create such web services in R programming environment through “Shiny” library. The paper also reviews the issue of hosting “Shiny” apps and presents existing approaches. For demonstration purposes, an experimental version of such an application was constructed that presents in an interactive way the quarterly results of the new statistical product of the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) on Greek business demography.
官方统计特别强调向公民和利益攸关方沟通和传播调查结果。这通常是通过出版新闻稿和提供统计调查的综合数据来完成的。使用允许用户与官方统计结果互动的网络服务和软件,将进一步加强官方统计的沟通、传播、扫盲和整体质量。本文与通过吸引用户来获得更广泛受众的目标和背景有关,并解释了一个没有前端后端编程技术专业知识的NSO(国家统计局)成员如何通过“Shiny”库在R编程环境中创建这样的web服务。本文还回顾了托管“闪亮”应用程序的问题,并介绍了现有的方法。为了演示目的,构建了这样一个应用程序的实验版本,以交互式方式展示希腊统计管理局(ELSTAT)关于希腊商业人口统计的新统计产品的季度结果。
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引用次数: 0
Automatizing model selection in an annual review of seasonal adjustment: A machine learning-inspired approach 在季节性调整的年度回顾中自动化模型选择:一种机器学习启发的方法
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-16 DOI: 10.3233/sji-220097
Yingfu Xie
In this paper, we bring to attention the problem of model selection with conflicting criteria in general and in annual reviews of seasonal adjustment in particular. Although partial concurrent seasonal adjustment and annual reviews are recommended by Eurostat, the problem of model selection in such reviews is seldom discussed in the literature, and our study is an attempt to fill this gap. In these reviews, revisions caused by model changes are very undesirable. The trade-off between different diagnostics, M- and Q-statistics, numbers of outliers, and revisions is hard to make to select the best model. In this study, a customary model selection procedure is described. Furthermore, we argue for using the manually chosen models as the “true” models, which makes it possible to employ a supervised machine learning-like approach to select weights for these diagnostics. It shows that this approach could work equally well as (if not better than) human statisticians, and thus facilitate an automatized procedure for model selection in such annual reviews. Although the approach has limitations as we describe, it is, to our best knowledge, the first study of its kind in the literature.
在本文中,我们提出了在一般情况下,特别是在季节调整的年度审查中,具有冲突标准的模型选择问题。虽然欧盟统计局推荐部分同步季节调整和年度回顾,但文献中很少讨论这些回顾中的模型选择问题,我们的研究试图填补这一空白。在这些审查中,由模型更改引起的修订是非常不可取的。在不同的诊断、M和q统计、异常值数量和修订之间进行权衡,很难选择最佳模型。在本研究中,描述了一种习惯的模型选择程序。此外,我们主张使用手动选择的模型作为“真实”模型,这使得可以采用类似监督机器学习的方法来为这些诊断选择权重。它表明,这种方法可以像人类统计学家一样工作得很好(如果不是更好的话),从而促进了这种年度审查中模型选择的自动化过程。尽管我们所描述的方法有局限性,但据我们所知,这是文献中同类研究的第一次。
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引用次数: 0
Governments measure during the COVID crisis and statistical implications in national accounts: The case of tax deferrals1 政府在新冠肺炎危机期间的衡量标准及其对国民账户的统计影响:税收延期的情况1
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-16 DOI: 10.3233/sji-220112
Susanna Riccioni, Luisa Sciandra
During the COVID-19 crisis many European governments have implemented major policy measures to support companies and households coping with the sharp decline in economic activity. Correctly interpreting and recording these measures in the national accounts was a major challenge for compilers who had to ensure not only timely but also independent, reliable, and comparable statistics in exceptional circumstances. High quality official statistics are fundamental for public finance monitoring, both at quarterly and at annual level. They provide informative basis for policy makers and economic analysts and play a central role in the context of the European fiscal surveillance process. This paper discusses how the Italian Statistical institute (ISTAT) managed to quickly respond to the sudden increase in the need for public finance information in the aftermath of government interventions to contrast the consequences of COVID-19 crisis. In particular, the paper focuses on one of the first fiscal actions Italian government enforced immediately following the outbreak that is deferrals of tax obligations. According to OECD (2021) this is the main fiscal relief European countries have introduced in response to Covid crisis. The urgency of giving appropriate trace of these actions in the framework of national accounts has raised a significant methodological issue for compilers, and its solution can be exemplary of an innovative approach to provide data during extraordinary periods remaining as compliant as possible with the conventional processes and codified rules. The approach is based on the combination of new data sources with already existing data, on a strengthen interaction among data providers and government agencies to assure a speedier access to administrative data (Ministry of Finance and Revenue Agency), and on a strict collaboration with European institutions (Eurostat).
在新冠肺炎危机期间,许多欧洲国家政府实施了重大政策措施,以支持企业和家庭应对经济活动的急剧下降。对于编制人员来说,正确解释并在国民账户中记录这些措施是一项重大挑战,他们不仅要确保在特殊情况下及时、独立、可靠和可比的统计数据。高质量的官方统计数据是公共财政监测的基础,无论是季度还是年度。它们为政策制定者和经济分析师提供了信息基础,并在欧洲财政监督过程中发挥了核心作用。本文讨论了意大利统计研究所(ISTAT)如何在政府干预后迅速应对对公共财政信息需求的突然增加,以对比新冠肺炎危机的后果。特别是,本文关注的是意大利政府在疫情爆发后立即实施的首批财政行动之一,即推迟纳税义务。根据经合组织(2021)的说法,这是欧洲国家为应对新冠肺炎危机而推出的主要财政救济。在国民账户框架内适当追踪这些行动的紧迫性给编纂者带来了一个重大的方法问题,其解决方案可以作为一种创新方法的典范,在非常时期提供数据,尽可能遵守传统程序和成文规则。该方法的基础是将新的数据来源与现有数据相结合,加强数据提供商和政府机构之间的互动,以确保更快地获取行政数据(财政和税务部),并与欧洲机构(欧盟统计局)进行严格合作。
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引用次数: 0
Perceptions and experiences in madagascar: Where do the gaps come from when measuring corruption, criminal violence, and discrimination 马达加斯加的看法和经验:衡量腐败、犯罪暴力和歧视时,差距来自哪里
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-16 DOI: 10.3233/sji-230005
Andriameva Yvan Assany, Faly Hery Rakotomanana
This article examines the indicators of perception and experience, frequently used in surveys to measure corruption, criminal violence, and discrimination. Focusing on Madagascar, we study the correlations between these two types of measurements, which are subject to some debates in the literature as they are not sufficiently understood. The results show that, apart from discrimination, there is little correlation between perceptions and experiences. In addition, we find that media exposure, education, trust, and contact with the administration are factors that significantly influence both experience and perception as measurements. These factors may exhibit a similar influence, showing convergence between the two measures, or opposite influences, showing a difference between the measured phenomena. These results, mobilizing “Gouvernance, Paix et Sécurité” surveys (GPS-SHaSA), emphasize the relevance to always distinguish between perceptions and experiences when measuring, studying or treating with one of these concepts. For having identified variables that are captured (or not) by those two complementary indicators, this paper should be useful to both governments, practitioners, and researchers, if their aims are to address and better understand those governance phenomena.
本文考察了在调查中经常用于衡量腐败、犯罪暴力和歧视的感知和经验指标。以马达加斯加为重点,我们研究了这两种测量之间的相关性,这在文献中受到一些争论,因为它们没有得到充分的理解。结果表明,除了歧视之外,感知和经历之间几乎没有关联。此外,我们发现媒体曝光、教育、信任和与行政当局的接触是显著影响经验和感知的因素。这些因素可能表现出相似的影响,显示出两种测量之间的趋同,也可能表现出相反的影响,显示出测量现象之间的差异。这些结果调动了“治理、和平与健康”调查(GPS-SHaSA),强调了在测量、研究或处理这些概念时始终区分感知和经验的重要性。由于确定了被这两个互补的指标捕获(或未捕获)的变量,如果政府、从业者和研究人员的目标是处理并更好地理解这些治理现象,那么本文应该对他们都有用。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring violence in war-torn countries: A political challenge for development, peace and security 衡量饱受战争蹂躏国家的暴力:对发展、和平与安全的政治挑战
Q3 Decision Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-09 DOI: 10.3233/sji-220119
Marc-Antoine Pérouse de Montclos
This article examines the data, indicators, statistical categories and tools used to measure levels of violence in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It shows that the methodologies used remain an area of contest and can distort the results, making the situation appear worse than it actually is. It therefore calls for a reconsideration of the link between development, peace and security.
本文研究了在可持续发展目标背景下用于衡量暴力程度的数据、指标、统计类别和工具。它表明,所使用的方法仍然是一个有争议的领域,可能会扭曲结果,使局势看起来比实际情况更糟。因此,它呼吁重新考虑发展、和平与安全之间的联系。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Statistical Journal of the IAOS
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