Understanding climate change impacts on watersheds is critical for sustainable water management, ecosystem protection, and resilience planning. This study compares projected streamflow changes in two watersheds: the tropical Upper Nilwala Watershed (UNW), Sri Lanka, and the subtropical Upper James Watershed (UJW), Virginia, USA. Streamflows for both watersheds are simulated using the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) hydrological model, with future climate projections bias-corrected using the Linear Scaling Method (LSM). The analysis spans three future periods; Near (NF: 2026–2050), Mid (MF: 2051–2075), and Far Future (FF: 2076–2100) against a 1998–2022 baseline period, using ensembles of selected GCM-RCM combinations under medium (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP 2-4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 4.5)) and high (SSP 5-8.5 (RCP 8.5)) Emission Scenarios (ESs). Projections show diverging trends: UJW may face annual precipitation declines of 8.19% (SSP 2-4.5 (RCP 4.5)) and 14.63% (SSP 5-8.5 (RCP 8.5)), while UNW could see increases of approximately 10.80%, during 2026-2100 respectively. By 2100, UNW at Pitabeddara may experience up to a 56.53% rise in annual discharge (SSP 2-4.5 (RCP 4.5)), whereas UJW at Holcomb-Rock may see only a 4.16% increase (SSP 2-4.5) or a slight 0.62% decrease (SSP 5-8.5 (RCP 8.5)). Monthly and seasonal flows differ sharply: UNW may rise by 136.7% during the northeast monsoon season, while UJW trends vary gains in summer/autumn, but spring/winter declines up to 12.48%. These contrasts highlight the need for region-specific adaptive strategies, emissions mitigation, and addressing model uncertainties for effective long-term water management.
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