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How predictive-forward-collision-warning reduces the collision risk of leading vehicle driver 前瞻性碰撞预警如何降低主车驾驶员的碰撞风险。
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107891
Qiang Fu, Xiaohua Zhao, Chen Chen, Wenhao Ren
Mixed platoon with a human-driven leading vehicle may be a transition mode prior to the widespread adoption of fully autonomous platoon. Enhancing the driving safety of the leading vehicle driver is crucial for improving the overall operational safety of the mixed platoon. Predictive-Forward-Collision-Warning (PFCW), an emerging technology in transportation, holds promise in mitigating collision risks for drivers by presenting traffic information beyond their immediate visual range. However, the influence characteristics of this function and how it influences the evolution of collision risk in leading vehicle driver remain unclear. Therefore, this paper attempts to analyse the quantitative impact of PFCW on the collision risk of leading vehicle driver. A test platform for connected mixed platoon was built utilizing driving simulation technology, alongside the development of a connected Human-Machine Interface (HMI) incorporating PFCW functionality. To evaluate the longitudinal collision risk of leading vehicle driver, a time–frequency analysis method was employed, focusing on key indicators: deceleration rate to avoid collision (DRAC), time to collision (TTC), and proportion of stopping distance (PSD). The time-domain analysis results indicated that PFCW can significantly mitigate the collision risk of leading vehicle. Wavelet transform results demonstrated that PFCW can ameliorate drivers’ abnormal driving behavior and mitigate the collision risk in emergency situation of impending collision moment. Meanwhile, PFCW can enhance the overall operation safety of the mixed platoon. This paper leverages driving simulation technology and multidimensional indicators to analyze the quantitative impact of PFCW on the collision risk of leading vehicle driver during rapid deceleration of preceding vehicles. The findings can guide the development of test standards for connected mixed platoon, the promotion and application of PFCW, and the advancement of Navigate on Autopilot (NOA). Additionally, the test platform and framework developed in this study can accommodate various experimental needs for connected mixed platoon testing.
在完全自动驾驶排被广泛采用之前,由人类驾驶的领头车辆组成的混合排可能是一种过渡模式。提高领先车辆驾驶员的驾驶安全性对提高混合排整体运行安全性至关重要。预测-前方碰撞预警(PFCW)是一项新兴的交通技术,它可以向驾驶员提供超出其直接视觉范围的交通信息,从而降低碰撞风险。然而,该函数的影响特征以及如何影响主导车辆驾驶员的碰撞风险演变尚不清楚。因此,本文试图定量分析PFCW对主导车辆驾驶员碰撞风险的影响。利用驾驶模拟技术建立了连接混合排的测试平台,同时开发了包含PFCW功能的连接人机界面(HMI)。采用时频分析方法对主车驾驶员纵向碰撞风险进行评价,重点评价了主要指标:避免碰撞减速率(DRAC)、碰撞时间(TTC)和停车距离比例(PSD)。时域分析结果表明,PFCW能显著降低前车的碰撞风险。小波变换结果表明,在碰撞时刻即将来临的紧急情况下,PFCW能够改善驾驶员的异常驾驶行为,降低碰撞风险。同时,PFCW可以提高混合排的整体操作安全性。本文利用驾驶仿真技术和多维指标,定量分析了前车快速减速时PFCW对领车驾驶员碰撞风险的影响。研究结果对互联混合排测试标准的制定、PFCW的推广应用以及自动驾驶导航技术的发展具有指导意义。此外,本研究开发的测试平台和框架可以适应连接混合排测试的各种实验需求。
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引用次数: 0
Can we realize seamless traffic safety at smart intersections by predicting and preventing impending crashes? 我们能否通过预测和预防即将发生的碰撞来实现智能十字路口的无缝交通安全?
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107908
B M Tazbiul Hassan Anik, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, Zubayer Islam
Intersections are frequently identified as crash hotspots for roadways in major cities, leading to significant human casualties. We propose crash likelihood prediction as an effective strategy to proactively prevent intersection crashes. So far, no reliable models have been developed for intersections that effectively account for the variation in crash types and the cyclical nature of Signal Phasing and Timing (SPaT) and traffic flow. Moreover, the limited research available has primarily relied on sampling techniques to address data imbalance, without exploring alternative solutions. We develop an anomaly detection framework by integrating Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and Transformers to predict the likelihood of cycle-level crashes at intersections. The model is built using high-resolution event data extracted from Automated Traffic Signal Performance Measures (ATSPM), including SPaT and traffic flow insights from 11 intersections in Seminole County, Florida. Our framework demonstrates a sensitivity of 76% in predicting crash events using highly imbalanced crash data along with real-world SPaT and traffic data, highlighting its potential for deployment at smart intersections. Overall, the results provide a roadmap for city-wide implementation at smart intersections, with the potential for multiple real-time solutions for impending crashes. These include adjustments in signal timing, driver warnings using various means, and more efficient emergency response, all with major implications for creating more livable and safe cities.
在主要城市中,十字路口经常被认为是道路碰撞的热点,导致重大人员伤亡。本文提出碰撞可能性预测是一种有效的交叉口碰撞预防策略。到目前为止,还没有开发出可靠的十字路口模型来有效地解释碰撞类型的变化以及信号相位和定时(spit)和交通流量的周期性。此外,现有的有限研究主要依靠抽样技术来解决数据不平衡问题,而没有探索替代解决方案。我们通过集成生成对抗网络(gan)和变形器开发了一个异常检测框架,以预测十字路口循环级碰撞的可能性。该模型使用了从自动交通信号性能测量(ATSPM)中提取的高分辨率事件数据,包括来自佛罗里达州塞米诺尔县11个十字路口的交通流量信息。我们的框架在使用高度不平衡的碰撞数据以及现实世界的交通数据预测碰撞事件方面显示出76%的灵敏度,突出了其在智能十字路口部署的潜力。总体而言,研究结果为在城市范围内实施智能十字路口提供了路线图,并有可能为即将发生的碰撞提供多种实时解决方案。这些措施包括调整信号定时、使用各种手段对驾驶员发出警告,以及更有效的应急响应,所有这些都对创建更宜居和安全的城市具有重大影响。
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引用次数: 0
Real-time risk estimation for active road safety: Leveraging Waymo AV sensor data with hierarchical Bayesian extreme value models 主动道路安全的实时风险评估:利用Waymo自动驾驶传感器数据和分层贝叶斯极值模型。
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107880
Mohammad Anis , Sixu Li , Srinivas R. Geedipally , Yang Zhou , Dominique Lord
Near-miss traffic risk estimation using Extreme Value Theory (EVT) models within a real-time framework offers a promising alternative to traditional historical crash-based methods. However, current approaches often lack comprehensive analysis that integrates diverse roadway geometries, crash patterns, and two-dimensional (2D) vehicle dynamics, limiting both their accuracy and generalizability. This study addresses these gaps by employing a high-fidelity, 2D time-to-collision (TTC) near-miss indicator derived from autonomous vehicle (AV) sensor data. The proposed framework uses univariate Generalized Extreme Value (UGEV) distribution models applied to a subset of the Waymo motion dataset across six arterial networks in San Francisco, Phoenix, and Los Angeles. Extreme events are identified through the Block Maxima (BM) sampling-based approach from each conflicting pair, with 20s block sizes to account for the scarcity of samples in short-duration traffic segments. The framework also incorporates conflicting vehicle dynamics (e.g., speed, acceleration, and deceleration) as covariates within a non-stationary hierarchical Bayesian structure with random parameters (HBSRP) UGEV models, allowing for the effective management of vehicle spatial, temporal, and behavioral heterogeneity. Results show that HBSRP-UGEV models outperform other approaches, with a 6.43–10.56% decrease in DIC, especially for near-miss events in short-duration traffic segments. The inclusion of dynamic vehicle behaviors and random effects substantially enhances the model’s capability to estimate real-time traffic risks. This generalized real-time EVT model bridges the gap between active and passive safety measures, offering a precise and adaptable tool for network-level traffic safety analysis.
在实时框架内使用极值理论(EVT)模型进行交通事故风险评估,为传统的基于历史事故的方法提供了一个有希望的替代方案。然而,目前的方法往往缺乏综合分析不同的道路几何形状、碰撞模式和二维(2D)车辆动态,限制了其准确性和通用性。本研究通过采用高保真2D碰撞时间(TTC)近靶指标来解决这些问题,该指标来源于自动驾驶汽车(AV)传感器数据。提出的框架使用单变量广义极值(UGEV)分布模型,将其应用于Waymo运动数据集的子集,该数据集横跨旧金山、凤凰城和洛杉矶的六个干线网络。极端事件通过基于块最大值(BM)采样的方法从每个冲突对中识别,块大小为20s,以考虑短时间流量段中样本的稀缺性。该框架还将相互冲突的车辆动力学(例如速度、加速和减速)作为协变量纳入了具有随机参数的非平稳分层贝叶斯结构(HBSRP) UGEV模型中,从而允许对车辆空间、时间和行为异质性进行有效管理。结果表明,HBSRP-UGEV模型的DIC降低了6.43-10.56%,特别是对于短时间交通段的近靶事件。车辆动态行为和随机效应的加入大大提高了模型对实时交通风险的估计能力。这种广义的实时EVT模型弥补了主动和被动安全措施之间的差距,为网络级交通安全分析提供了精确和适应性强的工具。
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引用次数: 0
Driver’s journey from historical traffic violations to future accidents: A China case based on multilayer complex network approach 驾驶员从历史交通违规到未来交通事故的过程:基于多层复杂网络方法的中国案例。
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107901
Rui Zhang , Bin Shuai , Pengfei Gao , Yue Zhang
Traffic violation records serve as key indicators for predicting drivers’ future accidents. However, beyond statistical correlations, the underlying mechanisms linking historical traffic violations to future accidents remain inadequately understood. This study introduces a research framework to address this gap: Using Propensity Score Matching and an adapted mutual information-based feature selection algorithm to precisely identify correlations and optimal time windows between drivers’ historical traffic violations and future accidents. A multilayer complex network approach was then applied to abstract and model the progression from drivers’ historical traffic violations to subsequent accidents, revealing intrinsic patterns through adapted network analysis metrics and ultimately uncovering underlying mechanisms. Actual data from over 17,000 drivers in Shenzhen, China, spanning the period of 2010 to 2020, was utilized. Results revealed significant heterogeneity among driver subtypes with various driving license types regarding optimal time windows and key traffic violations indicative of future accident risks. A universal “Stable Defect Effect” was identified across all driver subtypes, characterized by persistent driving-related deficiencies resistant to temporal decay and penalties. This effect’s gradual formation and maturation appear to govern the progression from traffic violations to future accidents. In addition, multilayer complex network models demonstrated significant potential in accident risk studies, particularly in providing valuable latent information by overcoming the limitations of accident data samples.
交通违法记录是预测驾驶员未来事故的关键指标。然而,除了统计相关性之外,将历史交通违规与未来事故联系起来的潜在机制仍然没有得到充分的了解。本研究引入了一个研究框架来解决这一差距:使用倾向得分匹配和自适应的基于互信息的特征选择算法来精确识别驾驶员历史交通违规与未来事故之间的相关性和最佳时间窗口。然后,应用多层复杂网络方法对驾驶员的历史交通违规行为和随后的事故进行抽象和建模,通过适应的网络分析指标揭示内在模式,并最终揭示潜在机制。该研究利用了2010年至2020年期间中国深圳17000多名司机的实际数据。结果显示,不同驾照类型的驾驶人在最优时间窗和指示未来事故风险的关键交通违法行为方面存在显著的异质性。一种普遍的“稳定缺陷效应”在所有的驾驶员亚型中被识别出来,其特征是持续的与驾驶相关的缺陷,对时间衰减和处罚具有抵抗力。这种效应的逐渐形成和成熟似乎控制着从交通违规到未来事故的进展。此外,多层复杂网络模型在事故风险研究中显示出巨大的潜力,特别是在克服事故数据样本的局限性,提供有价值的潜在信息方面。
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引用次数: 0
Causal factors identification and dynamics simulation of major road traffic accidents from China’s evidence: A high-order mixed-method design 基于中国证据的重大道路交通事故成因识别与动态模拟:一个高阶混合方法设计。
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107895
Chuntong Dong , Yulong Pei , Jing Liu , Yingyu Zhang , Ziqi Wang , Jie Zhang
Mitigating the injury and severity of road traffic accidents has become a crucial objective in global road safety efforts. Major road traffic accidents (MRTAs) pose significant challenges due to their high hazard and severe consequences. Despite their widespread impact, the complex causation mechanisms behind MRTAs have not been thoroughly and systematically investigated, which hinders the development of effective control strategies and policies. This study introduces an innovative high-order embedded mixed-method design to explore the causes of MRTAs, marking the first application of mixed-method approaches in road traffic accident research. The proposed approach consists of three phases: First, qualitative analysis utilizing grounded theory examines 95 MRTAs investigation reports to identify causal factors, establish a classification framework, and derive quantitative data. The second phase employs the decision experiment and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) for static quantitative analysis, quantifying interactions within the classification framework, and generating cause-effect diagrams. Finally, data and results from the first two phases are integrated to construct a system dynamics (SD) model and conduct sensitivity analysis, analyzing the impact of causal factors and their interactions on MRTAs casualties, thereby evaluating the effectiveness of various control strategies. The findings reveal that the causal factors of MRTAs can be categorized into five levels: “driver errors,” “vehicle, road and environment,” “supervisory deficiencies,” “organizational management and culture,” and “outside factors.” Complex interactions exist both among and within these levels, collectively influencing MRTAs. Moreover, in reducing MRTAs casualties, combined control strategies demonstrate significant superiority over single control strategies, especially when targeting key factors. It should also be noted that the importance ranking of causal factors dynamically adjusts with changes in the control environment, and the effectiveness of combined control strategies becomes more pronounced as the number of control factors increases. Specifically, comprehensive prevention strategies across all five levels exhibit the most remarkable efficacy. In conclusion, preventing MRTAs requires emphasizing the shared responsibility of all stakeholders and judiciously allocating control resources, while avoiding excessive reliance on interventions targeting any specific factor. This study provides a methodological foundation for a deeper understanding of the causation mechanisms behind MRTAs, and its results offer robust evidence to support the formulation of future prevention measures and policies.
减轻道路交通事故的伤害和严重程度已成为全球道路安全努力的一个关键目标。重大道路交通事故因其危险性高、后果严重而构成重大挑战。尽管其影响广泛,但mrta背后复杂的因果机制尚未得到彻底和系统的调查,这阻碍了有效控制策略和政策的制定。本研究引入了一种创新的高阶嵌入式混合方法设计来探索mrta的原因,这标志着混合方法在道路交通事故研究中的首次应用。本文提出的方法包括三个阶段:首先,定性分析利用扎根理论对95份mrta调查报告进行分析,以确定原因,建立分类框架,并得出定量数据。第二阶段采用决策实验和评估实验室(DEMATEL)进行静态定量分析,量化分类框架内的相互作用,并生成因果关系图。最后,整合前两阶段的数据和结果,构建系统动力学(SD)模型并进行敏感性分析,分析原因因素及其相互作用对mrta伤亡的影响,从而评价各种控制策略的有效性。研究结果表明,交通事故的成因可分为“驾驶员失误”、“车辆、道路和环境”、“监管缺陷”、“组织管理和文化”以及“外部因素”五个层次。这些层次之间和内部存在复杂的相互作用,共同影响mrta。此外,在减少mrta伤亡方面,联合控制策略比单一控制策略具有显著优势,特别是在针对关键因素时。还需要注意的是,因果因素的重要性排序随着控制环境的变化而动态调整,组合控制策略的有效性随着控制因素数量的增加而更加明显。具体而言,所有五个层面的综合预防战略都表现出最显著的效果。总之,预防mrta需要强调所有利益相关者的共同责任,并明智地分配控制资源,同时避免过度依赖针对任何特定因素的干预措施。本研究为深入了解mrta背后的因果机制提供了方法学基础,其结果为支持未来预防措施和政策的制定提供了有力的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating the safety influence path of right-turn configurations on vehicle–pedestrian conflict risk at signalized intersections 研究信号交叉口右转配置对车-人冲突风险的安全影响路径。
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107910
Mingjie Feng , Jing Zhao , Chaofan Hou , Chunting Nie , Jianke Hou
Right-turning vehicles and pedestrians share the right-of-way during the permitted signal phase at intersections in countries with right-handed traffic. Although right-turning vehicles are required to stop or yield to pedestrians according to the traffic rules, there still remains circumstances where the two will compete, posing significant safety risks to pedestrians. To investigate the impact mechanism of right-turn configurations, driver characteristics, and traffic operational features on vehicle–pedestrian conflict risk, a driving simulator experiment was conducted. The driving trajectory data of 51 drivers across 28 different scenarios encompassing customized intersection configurations and various traffic conditions were collected. Evaluation indicators, including average crossing speed, maximum deceleration, and post encroachment time (PET) were extracted, of which the first two represented the driving performance of right-turning vehicles, and the last was used to assess vehicle–pedestrian conflict risk. Using a categorical boosting (CatBoost)–Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) approach, pedestrian volume was identified as the most significant influencing factor, with its two levels having the most differential impact on each of the three evaluation indicators. Consequently, a multigroup path analysis was conducted to explore the varying safety influence paths of diverse factors on vehicle–pedestrian conflict risk under different pedestrian volumes. The mediating effects of the average crossing speed and maximum deceleration were found to be significant only under low pedestrian volumes, indicating that intersection configurations not only affect right-turn safety directly but also produce significant indirect effects by influencing driving performance. However, in scenarios with high pedestrian volumes, intersection configurations influenced right-turn safety directly but with no significant indirect effects. The corresponding quantitative insights can help urban road designers construct safer intersections.
在使用右手通行的国家,在允许的信号阶段,右转的车辆和行人共享通行权。虽然根据交通规则,右转车辆必须停车或让路给行人,但仍然存在两者竞争的情况,对行人构成重大安全风险。为了研究右转配置、驾驶员特征和交通运行特征对车-人冲突风险的影响机制,采用驾驶模拟器实验。收集了51名驾驶员在28种不同场景下的驾驶轨迹数据,包括定制的十字路口配置和各种交通状况。提取的评价指标包括平均过马路速度、最大减速度和后侵犯时间(PET),其中前两个指标代表右转车辆的行驶性能,后一个指标用于评价车人冲突风险。采用分类增强(CatBoost)-Shapley加性解释(SHAP)方法,确定行人数量是最显著的影响因素,其两个水平对三个评价指标的影响差异最大。为此,通过多组路径分析,探讨不同行人数量下不同因素对车-人冲突风险的安全影响路径。平均通行速度和最大减速度的中介作用仅在行人数量较少时才显著,表明交叉口配置不仅直接影响右转安全,而且通过影响驾驶性能产生显著的间接影响。在行人较多的情况下,交叉口配置直接影响右转安全,但间接影响不显著。相应的定量见解可以帮助城市道路设计者构建更安全的十字路口。
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引用次数: 0
Quantifying learning algorithm uncertainties in autonomous driving systems: Enhancing safety through Polynomial Chaos Expansion and High Definition maps 自动驾驶系统中量化学习算法的不确定性:通过多项式混沌展开和高清地图增强安全性。
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107903
Ruihe Zhang , Chen Sun , Minghao Ning , Reza Valiollahimehrizi , Yukun Lu , Krzysztof Czarnecki , Amir Khajepour
Autonomous driving systems (ADS), leveraging advancements in learning algorithms, have the potential to significantly enhance traffic safety by reducing human errors. However, a major challenge in evaluating ADS safety is quantifying the performance uncertainties inherent in these black box algorithms, especially in dynamic and complex service environments. Addressing this challenge is crucial for maintaining public trust and promoting widespread ADS adoption. In this work, we propose a Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) approach, utilizing High Definition (HD) maps to quantify positional uncertainties from an ADS object detection algorithm. The PCE-based approach also offers the flexibility for online self-updating, accommodating data shifts due to changing operational conditions. Tested in both simulation and real-world experiments, the PCE method demonstrates more accurate uncertainty quantification than baseline models. Additionally, the results highlight the importance and effectiveness of the self-updating capability, particularly when encountering weather changes.
自动驾驶系统(ADS)利用先进的学习算法,有可能通过减少人为失误来显著提高交通安全性。然而,评估自动驾驶系统安全性的一个主要挑战是量化这些黑盒算法固有的性能不确定性,尤其是在动态和复杂的服务环境中。应对这一挑战对于维护公众信任和促进 ADS 的广泛采用至关重要。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种多项式混沌展开(PCE)方法,利用高清(HD)地图来量化 ADS 物体检测算法的位置不确定性。基于 PCE 的方法还具有在线自我更新的灵活性,可适应因运行条件变化而导致的数据偏移。通过模拟和实际实验测试,PCE 方法比基线模型能更准确地量化不确定性。此外,实验结果还强调了自我更新功能的重要性和有效性,尤其是在遇到天气变化时。
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引用次数: 0
A cross-sectional safety evaluation approach using generalized extreme value models: A case of right-turn safety treatment 使用广义极值模型的横断面安全性评价方法:以右转安全处理为例。
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107907
Chenxiao Zhang , Yongfeng Ma , Tarek Sayed , Yanyong Guo , Shuyan Chen
There has been an increase in the use of the extreme value theory (EVT) approach for conflict-based crash risk estimation and its application such as conducting the evaluation of safety countermeasures. This study proposes a cross-sectional approach for evaluating the effectiveness of a right-turn safety treatment using a conflict-based EVT approach. This approach combines traffic conflicts of different sites at the same period and develops the generalized extreme value (GEV) models. It introduces treatment as a dummy variable for estimating the treatment effects and adds traffic-related and conflict severity-related variables to account for unobserved confounding factors between sites. The approach was applied to a case of right-turn safety treatment at two signalized intersections in Nanjing, China. Conflict indicators (i.e., TTC, PET) and potential influencing factors of E-bike-heavy vehicle (EB-HV) right-turn interactions were extracted from aerial video data. A series of GEV models were developed considering different combinations of covariates and their link to the model parameters. Moreover, site GEV models were developed separately for each site to compare the treatment effects across different models. Based on the best-fit models, the results indicate significant safety improvements after implementing the right-turn safety treatment. In addition, the results also show that the cross-sectional GEV models indicate a significant reduction in the number of high-severity conflicts and lowering overall crash risk attributed to the treatment highlighting the applicability of the GEV cross-sectional models in evaluation safety treatments.
在基于冲突的碰撞风险估计及其应用(如进行安全对策评估)中,使用极值理论(EVT)方法的情况越来越多。本研究提出了一种横断面方法,利用基于冲突的 EVT 方法来评估右转安全措施的有效性。这种方法结合了同一时期不同地点的交通冲突,并建立了广义极值(GEV)模型。它将处理方法作为虚拟变量用于估计处理效果,并添加了交通相关变量和冲突严重程度相关变量,以考虑不同地点之间未观察到的混杂因素。该方法被应用于中国南京两个信号灯路口的右转安全处理案例。从航拍视频数据中提取了电动自行车-重型车辆(EB-HV)右转相互作用的冲突指标(即 TTC、PET)和潜在影响因素。考虑到协变因素的不同组合及其与模型参数的联系,建立了一系列 GEV 模型。此外,还为每个站点分别建立了站点 GEV 模型,以比较不同模型的处理效果。根据最佳拟合模型,结果表明在实施右转安全处理后,安全状况有了显著改善。此外,结果还显示,横截面 GEV 模型表明,高严重性冲突的数量显著减少,总体碰撞风险降低,这归因于处理方法,突出了 GEV 横截面模型在安全处理方法评估中的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
Availability bias in road safety systematic reviews and its impact on the meta-analysis findings 道路安全系统评价中的可得性偏差及其对meta分析结果的影响。
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107905
Jiří Ambros , Rune Elvik
Meta-analyses, which present the best source of information on the effectiveness of interventions, are influenced by several biases. One category relates to the convenience of selective inclusion of those primary studies, which are more easily available than others. This availability bias includes bias from excluding the grey literature, bias from excluding non-English literature, and bias from excluding older studies. Existing studies are not conclusive about the impacts of this bias; in addition, none of them focus on road safety meta-analyses. To fill this gap, the present paper consisted of two studies: (1) exploring the presence of availability bias in road safety meta-analyses, and (2) demonstrating the impact of availability bias in several example meta-analyses. Based on an analysis of 80 existing meta-analyses, the first study concluded that compared to the medicine meta-analyses, the road safety meta-analyses use a longer time range, are more often restricted in terms of language, and less often involve the grey literature. The second study utilized selected unrestricted data samples to demonstrate the impact of availability bias in seven meta-analyses. The differences in intervention effectiveness in terms of crash frequency changes between unrestricted and restricted scenarios were identified. This shows that the search restrictions clearly lead to availability bias, which influences the differences in meta-analysis results.
荟萃分析是干预措施有效性的最佳信息来源,但也受到一些偏差的影响。一类涉及选择性纳入那些比其他研究更容易获得的初级研究的便利性。这种可得性偏倚包括排除灰色文献的偏倚,排除非英语文献的偏倚,以及排除较早研究的偏倚。现有的研究并不能确定这种偏见的影响;此外,它们都没有关注道路安全元分析。为了填补这一空白,本文包括两项研究:(1)探索可得性偏差在道路安全元分析中的存在,(2)在几个示例元分析中展示可得性偏差的影响。第一项研究基于对80项现有元分析的分析得出结论,与医学元分析相比,道路安全元分析使用的时间范围更长,在语言方面受到更多限制,并且较少涉及灰色文献。第二项研究利用选定的不受限制的数据样本来证明可得性偏差在七个元分析中的影响。在不受限制和受限制的情况下,在碰撞频率变化方面的干预效果的差异被确定。这表明搜索限制明显导致可得性偏差,从而影响meta分析结果的差异。
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引用次数: 0
A comparison of traffic crash and connected vehicle event data on a freeway corridor with Hard-Shoulder Running 采用硬肩跑的高速公路走廊交通碰撞与联网车辆事件数据比较。
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术 Q1 ERGONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107900
Nischal Gupta , Qiuqi Cai , Hisham Jashami , Peter T. Savolainen , Timothy J. Gates , Timothy Barrette , Wesley Powell
Police crash reports have traditionally been the primary data source for research and development projects aimed at improving traffic safety. However, there are important limitations of such data, particularly the relative infrequency of crashes on a site-by-site basis in many contexts. Crash analyses often require multiple years of data and the use of such data for short-term evaluations creates challenges. Recently, connected vehicle (CV) event data have emerged as a promising means for addressing these limitations. CV events, which are reported when a vehicle engages in rapid longitudinal or lateral acceleration, can be obtained both at larger scale and in a timelier manner as compared to crash data. However, research as to the relationships between CV events and crashes is still in its nascent stages. This study examined the frequency of CV driving events and traffic crashes on a freeway corridor in Southeastern Michigan that operates with hard-shoulder running during periods of heavy congestion. This corridor uses the inside (left) shoulder as a temporary travel lane during peak periods and also provides dynamic advisory speeds based upon traffic congestion levels as monitored by microwave vehicle detection systems. Consequently, comparisons were made as to the general relationships of CV events and crashes with respect to traffic volumes, as well as whether the shoulder lane was open or closed. As the study was conducted during 2020, this also allowed for comparisons between each metric over the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. A series of analyses show strong correlation between traffic conditions along the corridor and the frequency of crash and CV driving events. Both crashes and CV events occurred more frequently during periods of congestion. However, significant differences were observed between crashes and CV events depending on whether the inside shoulder was open to traffic or not. Furthermore, the CV events were more reflective of changes in travel patterns that occurred following the introduction of travel restrictions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
警察事故报告历来是旨在改善交通安全的研究和发展项目的主要数据来源。然而,这些数据有重要的局限性,特别是在许多情况下,每个站点的崩溃频率相对较低。崩溃分析通常需要多年的数据,使用这些数据进行短期评估会带来挑战。最近,车联网(CV)事件数据已成为解决这些限制的一种有前途的手段。与碰撞数据相比,车辆纵向或横向快速加速时报告的CV事件可以更大规模、更及时地获得。然而,关于CV事件与撞车之间关系的研究仍处于起步阶段。这项研究调查了密歇根州东南部一条高速公路走廊上CV驾驶事件和交通事故的频率,该走廊在严重拥堵期间使用硬肩行驶。这条走廊使用内部(左)肩作为高峰时段的临时通行车道,并根据微波车辆检测系统监测的交通拥堵程度提供动态咨询速度。因此,比较了CV事件和碰撞与交通量的一般关系,以及肩道是开放还是关闭。由于这项研究是在2020年进行的,因此也可以对COVID-19大流行早期阶段的每个指标进行比较。一系列分析表明,走廊沿线的交通状况与碰撞和CV驾驶事件的频率之间存在很强的相关性。在拥塞期间,崩溃和CV事件都更频繁地发生。然而,根据内肩是否对交通开放,在碰撞和CV事件之间观察到显着差异。此外,CV事件更多地反映了为应对COVID-19大流行而实施旅行限制后发生的旅行模式变化。
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Accident; analysis and prevention
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