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Hydrochemistry and Quality Assessment of Water in Tannur Dam, Southern Jordan 约旦南部坦努尔大坝水化学与水质评价
Pub Date : 2020-01-21 DOI: 10.4236/ojmh.2020.101001
O. Al-Khashman, H. Alnawafleh
The study was undertaken to assess the physicochemical and chemical quality of the Tannur dam water in southern Jordan. The water samples were collected in two intervals the first during May 2015 and the second during September 2015. All samples were analyzed for temperature, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, pH, major cations (Ca2+, Mg2+, K+, Na+), and major anions (Cl-, NO3-, HCO3- and SO42-). The hydrogeochemical analyses of thirty-six water samples were used to determine the properties and type of water in the Tannur dam. The ion concentration in the water samples was from dissolution of carbonate rocks and ion exchange processes in clay. The general chemistry of water samples was typical alkaline earth waters with prevailing bicarbonate chloride. The PHREEQC Hydrogeochemical modeling was used to obtain the saturation indices of specific mineral phases, which might be related to interaction with water and aquifer, and to identify the chemical species of the dissolved ions. Calcite and dolomite solubility were assessed in terms of saturation index where they show positive values indication oversaturated SI > 0. The hydrogeochemistry behavior is rather complicated and is affected by anthropogenic and natural sources. The positive correlation values between various parameters indicate that most of ions result from same lithological sources. The abundance of the major ions in water samples is in the following order: HCO3-> Ca2+ > Cl- > NO3- > SO42-) > Na+ > Mg2+ > K+. Water samples of the Tannur dam are generally very hard, high to very high saline and medium alkaline in nature. High total hardness (TH) and total dissolved solids (TDS) in some samples identify the permissible for domestic and irrigation purposes. According to the residual sodium carbonate, SAR and conductivity values, the studied water is suitable for agricultural purposes.
进行这项研究是为了评估约旦南部坦努尔大坝水的物理化学和化学质量。水样采集时间为2015年5月和2015年9月。分析所有样品的温度、电导率、溶解氧、pH、主要阳离子(Ca2+、Mg2+、K+、Na+)和主要阴离子(Cl-、NO3-、HCO3-和SO42-)。通过对36个水样的水文地球化学分析,确定了坦努尔大坝水的性质和类型。水样中的离子浓度来源于碳酸盐岩的溶蚀和粘土中的离子交换过程。水样一般化学性质为典型的碱土水,以氯化氢为主。利用PHREEQC水文地球化学模拟得到了可能与水和含水层相互作用有关的特定矿物相的饱和度指数,并确定了溶解离子的化学种类。方解石和白云石的溶解度根据饱和指数进行评估,其中它们显示正值,表明SI过饱和。水文地球化学行为相当复杂,受人为和自然因素的影响。各参数间的正相关值表明大部分离子来自相同的岩性来源。水样中主要离子的丰度顺序为:HCO3-> Ca2+ > Cl- > NO3- > SO42-) > Na+ > Mg2+ > K+。坦努尔大坝的水样一般都很硬,高到极高的含盐量和中等碱性。高总硬度(TH)和总溶解固体(TDS)在一些样品确定允许用于家庭和灌溉目的。根据碳酸钠残留量、SAR值和电导率值,研究水适合农业用水。
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引用次数: 0
Calibration of HEC-RAS Model for One Dimensional Steady Flow Analysis—A Case of Senegal River Estuary Downstream Diama Dam 一维定常流分析中HEC-RAS模型的定标——以塞内加尔河口Diama大坝下游为例
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.4236/ojmh.2020.103004
R. Diédhiou, S. Sambou, Seïdou Kane, Issa Lèye, S. Diatta, Moussé Landing Sane, D. Ndione
The Sahelian regions have experienced a drought that has made them vulnerable to hydro-climatic conditions. Strategies have been developed to reduce this vulnerability. The governments of Senegal, Mauritania, Mali and Guinea have created the Organization for the development of the Senegal River (OMVS in french) with the aim of realizing large hydraulic installations. This resulted in the construction of the Diama and Manantali dams in the Senegal River Basin. The first aims to stop the saline intrusion, the second to regulate the flow of the river, to allow the irrigation of agricultural perimeters, and to produce electrical energy. The impoundment of the Diama dam has modified the hydraulic behavior of the estuary. The purpose of this study is to carry out the hydraulic modeling of the estuary of Senegal river downstream of the Diama Dam in transient mode by the HEC-RAS software. Two geometric models were constructed on the basis of a digital terrain model (DTM) using the Arc-GIS and HEC GeoRAS soft wares after processing the collected topographic data. The first geometric model, of which the areas of Senegal river downstream Diama Dam have been represented by cross-section, is one-dimensional. The second one is also one dimensional; in this model, the area of the Senegal River estuary downstream Diama Dam is introduced as water storage zones. The components of these models are the stream sections, lateral links, and storage areas. The flood hydrograph downstream Diama Dam is introduced as conditions at the upstream limits of the models while the tidal is introduced as a downstream condition. After the stability and calibration, the results given by HEC-RAS simulations are the variations of the water levels, the temporal variations of the flow rates for each section, the maximum flow velocities and the propagation times of the flood waves. The analysis and comparisons of these results strongly suggest using HEC-RAS issues as a decision-making tool helping to manage floods during times of crisis.
萨赫勒地区经历了一场干旱,使他们容易受到水文气候条件的影响。已经制定了减少这种脆弱性的战略。塞内加尔、毛里塔尼亚、马里和几内亚政府成立了塞内加尔河开发组织(法语:OMVS),目的是实现大型水力设施。这导致了在塞内加尔河流域建造迪亚马和马南塔利水坝。第一个目的是阻止盐水的入侵,第二个是调节河流的流量,允许灌溉农业周边,并产生电能。Diama大坝的蓄水改变了河口的水力特性。本研究的目的是利用HEC-RAS软件对Diama大坝下游塞内加尔河河口进行瞬态模式的水力模拟。对采集到的地形数据进行处理后,利用Arc-GIS和HEC GeoRAS软件在数字地形模型(DTM)的基础上构建了两个几何模型。第一个几何模型是一维的,其中塞内加尔河下游Diama大坝区域用截面表示。第二个也是一维的;在该模型中,引入了塞内加尔河口Diama大坝下游地区作为蓄水区。这些模型的组成部分是流段、横向链接和存储区域。在模型的上游极限处引入了迪亚玛大坝下游的洪水线,在下游极限处引入了潮汐。经过稳定和标定后,HEC-RAS模拟得到了水位的变化、各断面流量的时间变化、最大流速和洪水波的传播次数。对这些结果的分析和比较有力地表明,利用HEC-RAS问题作为一种决策工具,有助于在危机时期管理洪水。
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引用次数: 3
Accessibility Index of Aquatic Environments as an Indicator of Surface Water Vulnerability in Urban Areas: Case of the Okpara Basin (Benin) 水环境可达性指数作为城市地表水脆弱性指标——以贝宁奥克帕拉盆地为例
Pub Date : 2019-09-12 DOI: 10.4236/ojmh.2019.94006
Maurille P. S. Lanmandjèkpogni, F. P. Codo, B. Hountondji, B. Yao
Physiographic differences and conditions of use of water resources in anthropogenic basins explain the variability of risk to surface water. Based on the multi-criteria analysis of Saaty, the present work proposes an assessment of the vulnerability of surface water through a three-factor accessibility index: the slope, the subdivision rate and the drainage density of the basin. It is observed that the topographic (slope) and urbanistic (subdivision) conditions are the most important (weighting of 59%, 34%) in front of the hydrographic condition (drainage 6%) with an overall consistency of 2%. Thus, in the Okpara basin in the city of Parakou, the analysis of the vulnerability of surface waters by the accessibility index highlights two groups. The Ganre and Kokouro basins with about 30% of their areas in the low and moderate classes and the Wonka and Dama basins in the very strong class at more than 50% of their areas.
人为盆地的地理差异和水资源利用条件解释了地表水风险的变异性。在多准则分析的基础上,提出了通过流域坡度、流域细分率和流域排水密度三因子可达性指标评价流域地表水脆弱性的方法。可以观察到,地形(坡度)和城市(细分)条件是最重要的(权重分别为59%和34%),其次是水文条件(排水6%),总体一致性为2%。因此,在帕拉库市的奥克帕拉盆地,可达性指数对地表水脆弱性的分析突出了两组。Ganre和Kokouro盆地约30%的面积为中低类,Wonka和Dama盆地超过50%的面积为强类。
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引用次数: 0
Dam Breach Analysis Using HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS: The Case of Kesem Kebena Dam 基于HEC-RAS和HEC-GeoRAS的溃坝分析——以Kesem Kebena大坝为例
Pub Date : 2019-09-11 DOI: 10.4236/OJMH.2019.94007
Abimael Leoul, Nebiyou Kassahun
Ethiopia has been booming with active construction of dams within the past few decades for different infrastructural needs, but has never experienced demolition or failure of dams in its history; hence little attention is being given to possible breach scenarios of dams and the resulting floodings. This paper makes analysis of the possible breach of kesem dam and the resulting flood inundation. In this study, the dam has been checked for both overtopping and piping failure modes using one dimensional river analysis model called HEC-RAS. Empirical equations were used to predict dam breach parameters of the two failure modes for use in this model. PMF inflow with a peak 9237.77 m3/s is used as an input to the reservoir to check if overtopping failure was possible. The spill way has proven to have adequate capacity for the flood due to the PMF. Therefore, breaching of the embankment was not possible. Piping failure was also simulated in HEC-RAS and the resulting breach due to piping failure, was analyzed and flood hydrograph was obtained at different cross sections along the river. These are flood hydrographs at 20 km, 40 km and 60 km at the downstream. The resulting flood plain was also mapped using HEC-GeoRas to show the extent of flooding.
在过去的几十年里,埃塞俄比亚因不同的基础设施需求而积极建设大坝,发展迅速,但在其历史上从未经历过大坝的拆除或失败;因此,人们很少关注大坝可能发生的溃坝情况以及由此引发的洪水。本文对凯塞姆大坝可能发生的溃坝及其引发的洪水淹没进行了分析。在这项研究中,使用名为HEC-RAS的一维河流分析模型检查了大坝的漫顶和管道破坏模式。采用经验方程预测了两种溃坝模式的溃坝参数,用于该模型。峰值为9237.77m3/s的PMF流入被用作水库的输入,以检查是否可能发生漫顶故障。由于PMF,泄漏通道已被证明具有足够的防洪能力。因此,不可能突破路堤。HEC-RAS中还模拟了管道故障,分析了管道故障造成的决口,并获得了沿河不同横截面的洪水过程线。这些是下游20km、40km和60km处的洪水过程线。由此产生的洪泛平原也使用HEC GeoRas绘制了地图,以显示洪水的程度。
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引用次数: 9
Causes of Decreasing Water Balances in the Barada Awaj (Damascus) Drainage Basin until the Uprising in Syria 叙利亚起义前Barada Awaj(大马士革)流域水平衡下降的原因
Pub Date : 2019-09-11 DOI: 10.4236/ojmh.2019.94008
Firas Arraf
Despite all of the many discrepancies and contradictions in the estimate of the water balance in the Barada Awaj basin, all the research and reports, both local and international, indicate that the basin suffers from water depletion. The agricultural sector is the largest consumer of water, and the area of land irrigated by the basin has risen significantly. Rapid population growth as a result of natural increase and massive immigration to the basin, piratical well-digging without permits, the failure to increase the area of land irrigated by modern methods and a decrease in rainfall and the drought that has affected Syria in general and the Barada Awaj basin in particular, have led to a water shortage in the basin during the first decade of this century.
尽管对Barada Awaj流域水平衡的估计存在许多差异和矛盾,但当地和国际的所有研究和报告都表明,该流域的水资源正在枯竭。农业部门是最大的用水部门,该流域灌溉的土地面积大幅增加。由于自然增长和大量移民到该流域、未经许可擅自挖井、未能增加用现代方法灌溉的土地面积、降雨量减少以及干旱,人口迅速增长,这影响了整个叙利亚,尤其是巴拉达-阿瓦伊流域,在本世纪的第一个十年里,导致了该流域的缺水。
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引用次数: 1
The Ecological Outcome of Climate Change in Lake Kinneret—Thermal Pollution Kinneret湖气候变化的生态结果——热污染
Pub Date : 2019-07-15 DOI: 10.4236/OJMH.2019.93005
M. Gophen
Water quality deterioration as a result of pollution comprised of several aspects, among others: nutrient input loads, fishery management, hydrological budget, toxicity, watershed deforestation, soil exposure, and exotic invaders. Thermal pollution is mostly considered as the impact of power or nuclear Station effluent or the effect of exceptional thermal abrupt shock. The long-term influence of global warming consideration is not extensively studied. The long-term (1969-2001) effect of climate change (warming and precipitation decline) on the Lake Kinneret ecosystem is presented. Water and air Temperature, Heat Capacity and Thermal conductivity of water combined with reduced precipitation accompanied by lake water level decline are analyzed. It was found that the temperature of surface water increased with WL decline and decreased in deep layers during high WL. Future management design is suggested.
污染导致的水质恶化包括几个方面:营养投入负荷、渔业管理、水文预算、毒性、流域砍伐、土壤暴露和外来入侵者。热污染主要被认为是电力或核电站污水的影响或异常热突然冲击的影响。考虑到全球变暖的长期影响尚未得到广泛研究。介绍了气候变化(变暖和降水减少)对Kinneret湖生态系统的长期影响(1969-2001)。分析了降水量减少伴随湖泊水位下降的水和空气温度、水的热容和热导率。研究发现,地表水温度随WL的下降而升高,在高WL期间,表层水温度下降。对未来的管理设计提出了建议。
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引用次数: 2
Use of SWAT to Model Impact of Climate Change on Sediment Yield and Agricultural Productivity in Western Oregon, USA SWAT用于模拟气候变化对美国俄勒冈州西部沉积物产量和农业生产力的影响
Pub Date : 2019-04-17 DOI: 10.4236/OJMH.2019.92004
G. Mueller-Warrant, C. Phillips, K. Trippe
Climate change predictions for the Pacific Northwest region of the United States of America include increasing temperatures, intensification of winter precipitation, and a shift from mixed snow/rain to rain-dominant events, all of which may increase the risk of soil erosion and threaten agricultural and ecological productivity. Here we used the agricultural/environmental model SWAT with climate predictions from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) “high CO2 emissions” scenario (RCP8.5) to study the impact of altered temperature and precipitation patterns on soil erosion and crop productivity in the Willamette River Basin of western Oregon. An ensemble of 10 climate models representing the full range in temperature and precipitation predictions of CIMP5 produced substantial increases in sediment yield, with differences between yearly averages for the final (2090-2099) and first (2010-2019) decades ranging from 3.9 to 15.2 MT·ha-1 among models. Sediment yield in the worst case model (CanESM2) corresponded to loss of 1.5 - 2.7 mm·soil·y-1, equivalent to potentially stripping productive topsoil from the landscape in under two centuries. Most climate models predicted only small increases in precipitation (an average of 5.8% by the end of the 21st century) combined with large increases in temperature (an average of 0.05°C·y-1). We found a strong correlation between predicted temperature increases and sediment yield, with a regression model combining both temperature and precipitation effects describing 79% of the total variation in annual sediment yield. A critical component of response to increased temperature was reduced snowfall during high precipitation events in the wintertime. SWAT characterized years with less than basin-wide averages of 20 mm of precipitation falling as snow as likely to experience severe sediment loss for multiple crops/land uses. Mid-elevation sub-basins that are projected to shift from rain-snow transition to rain-dominant appear particularly vulnerable to sediment loss. Analyses of predicted crop yields indicated declining productivity for many commonly grown grass seed and cereal crops, along with increasing productivity for certain other crops. Adaptation by agriculture and forestry to warmer, more erosive conditions may include changes in selection of crop kinds and in production management practices.
对美利坚合众国西北太平洋地区的气候变化预测包括气温升高、冬季降水加剧,以及从混合雪/雨转变为以雨为主的事件,所有这些都可能增加土壤侵蚀的风险,并威胁农业和生态生产力。在这里,我们使用了农业/环境模型SWAT和耦合模型相互比较项目5(CMIP5)“高二氧化碳排放”情景(RCP8.5)的气候预测,研究了俄勒冈州西部威拉米特河流域温度和降水模式变化对土壤侵蚀和作物生产力的影响。代表CIMP5温度和降水预测全范围的10个气候模型的集合使沉积物产量大幅增加,模型之间最后(2090-2099)年和第一(2010-2019)年的年平均值差异在3.9至15.2 MT·ha-1之间。最坏情况模型(CanESM2)中的产沙量相当于1.5-2.7毫米·土壤·y-1的损失,相当于在不到两个世纪的时间里可能从景观中剥离生产性表层土。大多数气候模型预测降水量仅小幅增加(到21世纪末平均5.8%),而温度则大幅增加(平均0.05°C·y-1),结合温度和降水效应的回归模型描述了年输沙量总变化的79%。应对气温升高的一个关键组成部分是在冬季的高降水事件中减少降雪。SWAT将流域平均降水量小于20毫米的年份描述为降雪,可能会对多种作物/土地使用造成严重的沉积物损失。预计将从雨雪过渡到雨水为主的中海拔亚盆地似乎特别容易受到沉积物损失的影响。对预测作物产量的分析表明,许多常见的草籽和谷物作物的生产力正在下降,而某些其他作物的生产力也在提高。农业和林业适应更温暖、更具侵蚀性的条件可能包括改变作物种类和生产管理做法。
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引用次数: 3
End-Member Selection in Two-Component Isotope-Based Hydrograph Separation 基于双组分同位素的水谱分离中的端元选择
Pub Date : 2019-04-17 DOI: 10.4236/OJMH.2019.92003
S. Bansah, J. Quaye-Ballard, S. A. Andam-Akorful, Edward K. P. Bam, G. Anornu
The science that underpins our knowledge and understanding of Isotope-Based Hydrograph separation (IHS) has gained grounds, over the last few decades, in the identification of streamflow sources. However, challenges still exist in identifying appropriate tracers and the right combination of end-members for the IHS process. In a two-component IHS analysis, the application of the dual isotopes tracers, δ18O and (or) δ2H, is regarded as the simplest method. We undertook an IHS study within a nested system of eight Prairie watersheds located in South central Manitoba, Canada. The work evaluated about 17,000 results emanating from the application of a combination of two potential tracers (δ18O and δ2H) and eight each of potential “old” and “new” water end-members in a two-component IHS process. The outcome showed occurrences of many mathematically possible but hydrologically unacceptable IHS results. The observation was particularly predominant within relatively larger perennial sub-catchments of the watershed. It is also shown that inter-site sub-catchment isotopic end-member transferability is possible within watersheds of similar physio-hydrographic characteristics. We suggest that a careful evaluation of the physio-hydrographic characteristics of catchments be considered in IHS studies in addition to the recommended guidelines in the selection of tracers and end-members.
在过去的几十年里,支撑我们对基于同位素的过程线分离(IHS)的知识和理解的科学在识别径流源方面取得了进展。然而,在为IHS进程确定适当的追踪者和最终成员的正确组合方面仍然存在挑战。在双组分IHS分析中,应用双同位素示踪剂δ18O和(或)δ2H被认为是最简单的方法。我们在加拿大马尼托巴省中南部的八个草原流域的嵌套系统中进行了IHS研究。这项工作评估了在双组分IHS工艺中应用两种潜在示踪剂(δ18O和δ2H)和八种潜在的“旧”和“新”水端基元的组合产生的约17000个结果。结果显示,出现了许多数学上可能但水文上不可接受的IHS结果。这一观测结果在流域相对较大的常年亚集水区尤为突出。研究还表明,在具有相似物理水文特征的流域内,站点间子流域同位素末端成员的可转移性是可能的。我们建议,在IHS研究中,除了选择示踪剂和最终成员的推荐指南外,还应考虑仔细评估集水区的物理水文特征。
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引用次数: 2
Avulsion Dynamics in a River with Alternating Bedrock and Alluvial Reaches, Huron River, Northern Ohio (USA) 美国俄亥俄州北部休伦河基岩和冲积河段交替河流中的冲刷动力学
Pub Date : 2019-01-23 DOI: 10.4236/OJMH.2019.91002
Mark J Potucek, J. Evans
The Huron River consists of alternating bedrock reaches and alluvial reaches. Analysis of historical aerial photography from 1950-2015 reveals six major channel avulsion events in the 8-km study area. These avulsions occurred in the alluvial reaches but were strongly influenced by the properties of the upstream bedrock reach (“inherited characteristics”). The bedrock reaches aligned with the azimuth of joint sets in the underlying bedrock. One inherited characteristic in the alluvial reach downstream is that the avulsion channels diverged only slightly from the orientation of the upstream bedrock channel (range 2 ° - 38 °, mean and standard deviation 12.1 ° ± 13.7 °). A second inherited characteristic is that avulsion channels were initiated from short distances downstream after exiting the upstream bedrock channel reach (range 62 - 266 m, mean and standard deviation 143.7 ± 71.0 m), which is a fraction of the meander wavelength (1.2 km). Field evidence shows that some avulsion channel sites were re-occupied episodically. In addition, two properties were necessary for channel avulsions: 1) avulsion events were triggered by channel-forming hydrologic events (5-year recurrence interval flows), but not every channel-forming hydrologic event resulted in an avulsion, and 2) channel sinuosity (P) increased to 1.72 - 1.77 prior to an avulsion then decreased to 1.65 - 1.70 following an avulsion, suggesting that P ≥ 1.72 is the “critical sinuosity” or triggering value for avulsions on the Huron River. In summary, for this river consisting of alternating bedrock and alluvial reaches, the bedrock reaches impose certain parameters on downstream alluvial reaches (including sediment supply, channel direction and avulsion channel position downstream after exiting a bedrock reach) while adjustments in sinuosity and sediment storage occur in the alluvial reaches.
休伦河由交替的基岩河段和冲积河段组成。对1950-2015年历史航空摄影的分析揭示了8公里研究区内的六个主要河道撕裂事件。这些撕裂发生在冲积河段,但受到上游基岩河段特性的强烈影响(“继承特征”)。基岩延伸与下伏基岩中节理组的方位对齐。下游冲积河段的一个继承特征是,撕脱河道仅与上游基岩河道的方向略有偏离(范围为2°-38°,平均和标准偏差为12.1°±13.7°)。第二个遗传特征是,在离开上游基岩河道河段(范围62-266 m,平均值和标准偏差143.7±71.0 m)后,从下游短距离开始形成撕脱河道,这只是曲流波长(1.2 km)的一小部分。现场证据表明,一些撕脱通道部位被偶发性地重新占据。此外,河道撕裂有两个必要的特性:1)撕裂事件是由河道形成水文事件(5年重现期流量)引发的,但并不是每个河道形成的水文事件都会导致撕裂;2)河道弯曲度(P)在撕裂前增加到1.72-1.77,然后在撕裂后降低到1.65-1.70,表明P≥1.72是休伦河撕裂的“临界弯度”或触发值。总之,对于这条由基岩和冲积河段交替组成的河流,基岩河段对下游冲积河段施加了一定的参数(包括泥沙供应、河道方向和离开基岩河段后下游的撕脱河道位置),而冲积河段则对弯曲度和泥沙储量进行了调整。
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引用次数: 1
Evaluation of Landslide Susceptibility in Cau River Basin Using a Physical-Based Model under Impact of Climate Change 气候变化影响下曹河流域滑坡易感性的物理模型评价
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.4236/OJMH.2019.91001
T. Le, Seiki Kawagoe
This paper evaluated the probability of landslide susceptibilities through the applica-tion of the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Region Slope-Stability model in Cau river basin (Vietnam) using the scenarios-based approach under the influence of the warming climate. The tested cases were developed based on various options including rainfall amount and distribution, soil depth determination, and land-cover conditions. Input data for extreme rain events included historical rainstorm in 2013, the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) with the durations of 24 hours and 48 hours. The results illustrated the reduction of slope stability when the land cover changed from land-use data in 2007 (Ha12) to land-use data in 2015 (Ha22). When the whole region was assumed to be replaced by soil (Ha02), the factor of safety (Fs) decreased to lower magnitude when compared to Fs value regarding to changes in land cover condition (Ha12 & Ha22) and changes in soil-depth (Ha33). The model simulations demonstrated the agreement with the slope-failure hazard association with the destabilizing factor such as slope-cutting activities at historical landslide events. Under the same land-cover and soil depth condition, the average value of factor of safety regarding to the historical rainstorm in 2013 (Ha32) declined by 0.069 and 0.189 when compared to Fs of the 24-hour PMP with the storm distribution type 3 (1332) and Fs of the 48-hour PMP with the storm distribution type 3 (2332), respectively. The results reveal that in a warming climate, changes in extreme precipitation in terms of rain-total, rain-duration, and rain-distribution would result in the expansion of slope instability in the hilly region. This application is considered as a prevailing method for landslide susceptibility analysis and would provide important information for authorities in developing adequate land-management in the river basin.
本文采用基于情景的方法,应用瞬态降雨入渗和网格区域边坡稳定性模型,对越南曹河流域在气候变暖影响下的滑坡易发概率进行了评估。测试案例是基于各种选项开发的,包括降雨量和分布、土壤深度确定和土地覆盖条件。极端降雨事件的输入数据包括2013年历史暴雨、24小时和48小时的可能最大降水(PMP)。结果表明,从2007年土地利用数据(Ha12)到2015年土地利用数据(Ha22),土地覆盖变化导致边坡稳定性降低。当假设整个区域被土壤(Ha02)替代时,与土地覆盖条件(Ha12和Ha22)和土壤深度(Ha33)变化的Fs值相比,安全系数(Fs)降低到更低的量级。模型模拟结果与历史滑坡事件中坡面破坏危险性与不稳定因素(如切坡活动)的关联一致。在相同土地覆盖和土壤深度条件下,2013年历史暴雨的安全系数平均值(Ha32)与风暴分布类型为3的24小时PMP的f值(1332)和风暴分布类型为3的48小时PMP的f值(2332)相比,分别下降了0.069和0.189。结果表明,在气候变暖的条件下,极端降水总量、雨时和雨分布的变化将导致丘陵区边坡失稳的扩大。这种应用被认为是滑坡易感性分析的一种普遍方法,并将为当局在河流流域制定适当的土地管理提供重要信息。
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引用次数: 4
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现代水文学期刊(英文)
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