Christopher Clayton, Antonio Coppola, Amanda Dos Santos, Matteo Maggiori, Jesse Schreger
We document the rise of China in offshore capital markets. Chinese firms use global tax havens to access foreign capital in both equity and bond markets. In the last 20 years, China's presence went from raising a negligible amount of capital in these markets to accounting for more than half of equity issuance and around a fifth of global corporate bonds outstanding in tax havens. Using rich micro data, we show that a range of Chinese firms, including both tech giants and state-owned enterprises, use these offshore centers. We conclude by discussing the macroeconomic and financial stability implications of these patterns.
{"title":"China in Tax Havens","authors":"Christopher Clayton, Antonio Coppola, Amanda Dos Santos, Matteo Maggiori, Jesse Schreger","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231001","url":null,"abstract":"We document the rise of China in offshore capital markets. Chinese firms use global tax havens to access foreign capital in both equity and bond markets. In the last 20 years, China's presence went from raising a negligible amount of capital in these markets to accounting for more than half of equity issuance and around a fifth of global corporate bonds outstanding in tax havens. Using rich micro data, we show that a range of Chinese firms, including both tech giants and state-owned enterprises, use these offshore centers. We conclude by discussing the macroeconomic and financial stability implications of these patterns.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135145707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Helena Bach, Pietro Campa, Giacomo De Giorgi, Jaromir Nosal, Davide Pietrobon
We study how inheriting parents' credit histories affects the initial credit scores, access to credit, and life cycle borrowing of young individuals entering the credit market. We establish that inherited histories significantly positively affect initial scores, which in turn are very persistent. Inherited histories only affect outcomes through initial credit scores, which then have significant persistent effects on credit use and access, such as having a mortgage. Our results are consistent with mechanisms of self-fulfilling liquidity traps: low credit scores mean lack of access to credit, reinforcing low credit scores. Future research should address the contribution of such mechanisms to wealth inequality.
{"title":"Born to Be (Sub)Prime: An Exploratory Analysis","authors":"Helena Bach, Pietro Campa, Giacomo De Giorgi, Jaromir Nosal, Davide Pietrobon","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231096","url":null,"abstract":"We study how inheriting parents' credit histories affects the initial credit scores, access to credit, and life cycle borrowing of young individuals entering the credit market. We establish that inherited histories significantly positively affect initial scores, which in turn are very persistent. Inherited histories only affect outcomes through initial credit scores, which then have significant persistent effects on credit use and access, such as having a mortgage. Our results are consistent with mechanisms of self-fulfilling liquidity traps: low credit scores mean lack of access to credit, reinforcing low credit scores. Future research should address the contribution of such mechanisms to wealth inequality.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135145713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Report of the Treasurer","authors":"","doi":"10.1257/pandp.113.683","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.113.683","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135145699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I develop a framework to study the interplay between world trade and interest rates. The model incorporates an explicit notion of time and production length, in the “Austrian” tradition of Bohm-Bawerk (1889). Changes in the interest rate affect production lengths, labor productivity, and the financial costs of exporting. I decompose the response of the volume of world trade to changes in the interest rate into four components: a labor productivity effect, a “propensity to consume out of labor income” effect, a “temporal dimension of variable trade costs” effect, and a “selection into exporting” effect.
{"title":"Interest Rates and World Trade: An “Austrian” Perspective","authors":"Pol Antràs","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231026","url":null,"abstract":"I develop a framework to study the interplay between world trade and interest rates. The model incorporates an explicit notion of time and production length, in the “Austrian” tradition of Bohm-Bawerk (1889). Changes in the interest rate affect production lengths, labor productivity, and the financial costs of exporting. I decompose the response of the volume of world trade to changes in the interest rate into four components: a labor productivity effect, a “propensity to consume out of labor income” effect, a “temporal dimension of variable trade costs” effect, and a “selection into exporting” effect.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135145813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
An auctioneer holds an infinite sequence of private value auctions. He can accept payments in a blockchain-based token that he creates and initially owns. I show that relative to a standard auction with dollars, the present-discounted value of the expected revenues is higher whenever financial bubbles on tokens emerge, which happens when the rate at which investors use their tokens for bidding is sufficiently low. Financial bubbles can also emerge if the auctioneer uses dollars and issues equity. But in this case, a bubble is possible only if an increasing amount of aggregate wealth is invested in equity, which seems counterfactual.
{"title":"Financial Bubbles in Infinitely Repeated Auctions with Tokens","authors":"Andrea Canidio","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231032","url":null,"abstract":"An auctioneer holds an infinite sequence of private value auctions. He can accept payments in a blockchain-based token that he creates and initially owns. I show that relative to a standard auction with dollars, the present-discounted value of the expected revenues is higher whenever financial bubbles on tokens emerge, which happens when the rate at which investors use their tokens for bidding is sufficiently low. Financial bubbles can also emerge if the auctioneer uses dollars and issues equity. But in this case, a bubble is possible only if an increasing amount of aggregate wealth is invested in equity, which seems counterfactual.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"99 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80276953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We analyze the effects of conflict-related violence on the mental health of caregivers and young children, as well as the role of caregivers' mental health in explaining the toll of conflict on early childhood mental health. Although an upcoming body of work has demonstrated the link between caregivers' and children's mental health, the role of caregivers' psychological constraints has been largely ignored in research and programming in conflict-affected settings. We demonstrate how these constraints play a role in the intergenerational transmission of mental health problems and emphasize the urgency of addressing caregivers' mental health within early childhood development programs in conflict-affected settings.
{"title":"The Mental Health of Caregivers and Young Children in Conflict-Affected Settings","authors":"Juliana Sánchez-Ariza, Jorge Cuartas, Andrés Moya","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231017","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the effects of conflict-related violence on the mental health of caregivers and young children, as well as the role of caregivers' mental health in explaining the toll of conflict on early childhood mental health. Although an upcoming body of work has demonstrated the link between caregivers' and children's mental health, the role of caregivers' psychological constraints has been largely ignored in research and programming in conflict-affected settings. We demonstrate how these constraints play a role in the intergenerational transmission of mental health problems and emphasize the urgency of addressing caregivers' mental health within early childhood development programs in conflict-affected settings.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75491453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Model misspecification is a common approach to model belief formation distortions. Misspecified models can be decomposed into two classes of distortions: prospective and retrospective biases (Bohren and Hauser 2023). Prospective biases correspond to distortions in forecasting future beliefs, while retrospective biases correspond to distortions in interpreting information ex post. We disentangle the impact of these two distortions on optimal lending contracts in the context of an entrepreneur who borrows to invest in a project. The entrepreneur learns about project quality from a signal, which she interprets with a misspecified model. A lender leverages each form of bias in distinct ways.
{"title":"Optimal Lending Contracts with Retrospective and Prospective Bias","authors":"J. Bohren, Daniel N. Hauser","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231115","url":null,"abstract":"Model misspecification is a common approach to model belief formation distortions. Misspecified models can be decomposed into two classes of distortions: prospective and retrospective biases (Bohren and Hauser 2023). Prospective biases correspond to distortions in forecasting future beliefs, while retrospective biases correspond to distortions in interpreting information ex post. We disentangle the impact of these two distortions on optimal lending contracts in the context of an entrepreneur who borrows to invest in a project. The entrepreneur learns about project quality from a signal, which she interprets with a misspecified model. A lender leverages each form of bias in distinct ways.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"201 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72416703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
E. Brynjolfsson, Catherine D. Buffington, Nathan Goldschlag, J. F. Li, Javier Miranda, Robert C. Seamans
We use establishment-level data from the US Census Bureau's Annual Survey of Manufactures to study the characteristics and geographic locations of investments in robots. We find that the distribution of robots is highly skewed across locations. Some locations, which we call Robot Hubs, have far more robots than one would expect even after accounting for industry and manufacturing employment. We characterize these Robot Hubs along several industry, demographic, and institutional dimensions. The presences of robot integrators, which specialize in helping manufacturers install robots, and of higher levels of union membership are positively correlated with being a Robot Hub.
{"title":"Robot Hubs: The Skewed Distribution of Robots in US Manufacturing","authors":"E. Brynjolfsson, Catherine D. Buffington, Nathan Goldschlag, J. F. Li, Javier Miranda, Robert C. Seamans","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231038","url":null,"abstract":"We use establishment-level data from the US Census Bureau's Annual Survey of Manufactures to study the characteristics and geographic locations of investments in robots. We find that the distribution of robots is highly skewed across locations. Some locations, which we call Robot Hubs, have far more robots than one would expect even after accounting for industry and manufacturing employment. We characterize these Robot Hubs along several industry, demographic, and institutional dimensions. The presences of robot integrators, which specialize in helping manufacturers install robots, and of higher levels of union membership are positively correlated with being a Robot Hub.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74760662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Report of the Editor, American Economic Review","authors":"","doi":"10.1257/pandp.113.707","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.113.707","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"2010 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86298715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Dutz, M. Greenstone, Ali Hortaçsu, Santiago E. Lacouture, M. Mogstad, Danae Roumis, A. Shaikh, Alexander Torgovitsky, Winnie van Dijk
We use data from a serological study that experimentally varied financial incentives for participation to detect and characterize selection bias. Participants are from neighborhoods with substantially lower COVID-19 risks. Existing methods to account for the resulting selection bias produce wide bounds or estimates that are inconsistent with the population. One explanation for these inconsistent estimates is that the underlying methods presume a single dimension of unobserved heterogeneity. The data suggest that there are two types of nonparticipants with opposing selection patterns. Allowing for these different types may lead to better accounting for selection bias.
{"title":"Selection Bias in Voluntary Random Testing: Evidence from a COVID-19 Antibody Study","authors":"D. Dutz, M. Greenstone, Ali Hortaçsu, Santiago E. Lacouture, M. Mogstad, Danae Roumis, A. Shaikh, Alexander Torgovitsky, Winnie van Dijk","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231091","url":null,"abstract":"We use data from a serological study that experimentally varied financial incentives for participation to detect and characterize selection bias. Participants are from neighborhoods with substantially lower COVID-19 risks. Existing methods to account for the resulting selection bias produce wide bounds or estimates that are inconsistent with the population. One explanation for these inconsistent estimates is that the underlying methods presume a single dimension of unobserved heterogeneity. The data suggest that there are two types of nonparticipants with opposing selection patterns. Allowing for these different types may lead to better accounting for selection bias.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"103 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80636515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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