Economic theory suggests that the effects of fiscal stimulus can vary substantially with the systematic response of monetary policy. Empirical estimates of the causal effects of fiscal shocks implicitly embed a particular monetary reaction: they provide treatment effects that average across in-sample monetary policy. Building on McKay and Wolf (2022), I discuss how evidence on monetary policy shocks can be used to predict the effects of fiscal stimulus under arbitrary monetary policy reaction. I review the underlying theory, propose a simple empirical strategy, and present an application.
{"title":"Fiscal Stimulus and the Systematic Response of Monetary Policy","authors":"Christian K. Wolf","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231072","url":null,"abstract":"Economic theory suggests that the effects of fiscal stimulus can vary substantially with the systematic response of monetary policy. Empirical estimates of the causal effects of fiscal shocks implicitly embed a particular monetary reaction: they provide treatment effects that average across in-sample monetary policy. Building on McKay and Wolf (2022), I discuss how evidence on monetary policy shocks can be used to predict the effects of fiscal stimulus under arbitrary monetary policy reaction. I review the underlying theory, propose a simple empirical strategy, and present an application.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"28 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72394060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Duval, D. Furceri, Raphaël Lee, Marina M. Tavares
There is growing evidence that corporate market power is increasing and affecting monetary policy transmission. This paper develops a partial equilibrium model that highlights the role of financial constraints in shaping the role of markups for the response of firms to monetary policy shocks. We find support for such a role using a large cross-country firm-level dataset for 14 advanced economies.
{"title":"Market Power, Financial Constraints, and Monetary Transmission","authors":"R. Duval, D. Furceri, Raphaël Lee, Marina M. Tavares","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231005","url":null,"abstract":"There is growing evidence that corporate market power is increasing and affecting monetary policy transmission. This paper develops a partial equilibrium model that highlights the role of financial constraints in shaping the role of markups for the response of firms to monetary policy shocks. We find support for such a role using a large cross-country firm-level dataset for 14 advanced economies.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"53 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83174500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Report of the Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession","authors":"Elizabeth Hoffman","doi":"10.1257/pandp.113.815","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.113.815","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135703266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
What comes to mind when thinking about a successful entrepreneur? Belief formation models suggest that what comes to mind is an oversimplified picture of the characteristics of successful entrepreneurs–that is, stereotypes about successful entrepreneurs. Using French administrative data on 48,767 new firms, we show that some characteristics are stereotypical of success and have distributions that can generate miscalibrated beliefs. To illustrate how stereotypical thinking can lead to biased assessments, we report the discrepancies between the implied fraction of successful entrepreneurs under Bayesian versus stereotypical thinking for several stereotypes. We discuss the consequences of stereotyping for venture capital allocation.
{"title":"Stereotypes about Successful Entrepreneurs","authors":"Victor Lyonnet, Léa Stern","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231120","url":null,"abstract":"What comes to mind when thinking about a successful entrepreneur? Belief formation models suggest that what comes to mind is an oversimplified picture of the characteristics of successful entrepreneurs–that is, stereotypes about successful entrepreneurs. Using French administrative data on 48,767 new firms, we show that some characteristics are stereotypical of success and have distributions that can generate miscalibrated beliefs. To illustrate how stereotypical thinking can lead to biased assessments, we report the discrepancies between the implied fraction of successful entrepreneurs under Bayesian versus stereotypical thinking for several stereotypes. We discuss the consequences of stereotyping for venture capital allocation.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135703641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We consider the gamification aspect of a technology that delivers small daily tasks to students to analyze how competition motivates engagement. We randomly assigned 400 students into teams of up to 10, who compete by committing to the daily task and then acknowledging their completion later in the day. Using data collected from the leaderboard, we test whether student engagement with respect to competition varies systematically by gender and by the level of anonymity. Not surprisingly, being ranked in the top three is highly motivating. However, among lower-ranked students, male students tend to disengage when usernames are not anonymous.
{"title":"Competition, Motivation, and Student Engagement","authors":"Amanda J. Felkey, Eva Dziadula, Eric P. Chiang","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231047","url":null,"abstract":"We consider the gamification aspect of a technology that delivers small daily tasks to students to analyze how competition motivates engagement. We randomly assigned 400 students into teams of up to 10, who compete by committing to the daily task and then acknowledging their completion later in the day. Using data collected from the leaderboard, we test whether student engagement with respect to competition varies systematically by gender and by the level of anonymity. Not surprisingly, being ranked in the top three is highly motivating. However, among lower-ranked students, male students tend to disengage when usernames are not anonymous.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86226441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Silvia Albrizio, John C. Bluedorn, Christoffer Koch, Andrea Pescatori, M. Stuermer
We quantify how market integration affects the economic propagation of sectoral supply shocks at the example of a Russian gas shutoff to the European Union. An open-economy, multisector general equilibrium model suggests that the adverse output impact on the European Union shrinks fourfold if integration with the global liquified natural gas (LNG) market is considered. On the flip side, other LNG importers also see adverse output effects. Due to nonlinearities, the combined total economic damage is less than half with integration, compared to the counterfactual case without. Governments should foster further integration to make economies more resilient to supply shocks.
{"title":"Sectoral Shocks and the Role of Market Integration: The Case of Natural Gas","authors":"Silvia Albrizio, John C. Bluedorn, Christoffer Koch, Andrea Pescatori, M. Stuermer","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231045","url":null,"abstract":"We quantify how market integration affects the economic propagation of sectoral supply shocks at the example of a Russian gas shutoff to the European Union. An open-economy, multisector general equilibrium model suggests that the adverse output impact on the European Union shrinks fourfold if integration with the global liquified natural gas (LNG) market is considered. On the flip side, other LNG importers also see adverse output effects. Due to nonlinearities, the combined total economic damage is less than half with integration, compared to the counterfactual case without. Governments should foster further integration to make economies more resilient to supply shocks.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90656403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Note from the AEA Secretary-Treasurer about the Proceedings Supplement","authors":"","doi":"10.1257/pandp.113.692","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.113.692","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82760445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Henning Hermes, Philipp Lergetporer, Frauke H. Peter, Fabian Mierisch, Simon Wiederhold
This study investigates discrimination against women when searching and applying for childcare in a nationwide field experiment. We send emails from fictitious parents to 9,313 childcare centers in Germany inquiring about access to childcare. We randomize whether the email is sent by the child's mother or father. Our results show that women receive shorter and less positive responses than men. The probability of receiving a response does not differ by gender, highlighting the importance of going beyond response rates to detect discrimination. We provide suggestive evidence that regional differences in gender discrimination are related to gender norms.
{"title":"Males Should Mail? Gender Discrimination in Access to Childcare","authors":"Henning Hermes, Philipp Lergetporer, Frauke H. Peter, Fabian Mierisch, Simon Wiederhold","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231060","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates discrimination against women when searching and applying for childcare in a nationwide field experiment. We send emails from fictitious parents to 9,313 childcare centers in Germany inquiring about access to childcare. We randomize whether the email is sent by the child's mother or father. Our results show that women receive shorter and less positive responses than men. The probability of receiving a response does not differ by gender, highlighting the importance of going beyond response rates to detect discrimination. We provide suggestive evidence that regional differences in gender discrimination are related to gender norms.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83569359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jose Asturias, Emin M. Dinlersoz, J. Haltiwanger, Rebecca Hutchinson
Are business applications early indicators of economic activity? Our analysis indicates that monthly year-over-year growth in applications for likely employer businesses significantly leads growth in total nonfarm employment and has a positive correlation with it. In addition, growth in applications for likely employers leads growth in almost all other monthly Principal Federal Economic Indicators considered. These findings are robust to the inclusion of the COVID-19 pandemic period. Business applications for likely employers appear to be a strong leading indicator of aggregate economic activity.
{"title":"Are Business Applications Early Economic Indicators?","authors":"Jose Asturias, Emin M. Dinlersoz, J. Haltiwanger, Rebecca Hutchinson","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231053","url":null,"abstract":"Are business applications early indicators of economic activity? Our analysis indicates that monthly year-over-year growth in applications for likely employer businesses significantly leads growth in total nonfarm employment and has a positive correlation with it. In addition, growth in applications for likely employers leads growth in almost all other monthly Principal Federal Economic Indicators considered. These findings are robust to the inclusion of the COVID-19 pandemic period. Business applications for likely employers appear to be a strong leading indicator of aggregate economic activity.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89916906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Job applicants use resumes to send signals to potential employers. Applicants are free to select the items that go in their resumes and are expected to include signals they perceive will help them achieve their goals and avoid those that they anticipate could hurt them. We show that 92 percent of beneficiaries of a highly selective scholarship for poor and talented students avoid listing this award when applying for jobs. This is consistent with beneficiaries perceiving a negative labor market return from sending that signal. A correspondence study shows instead that listing the scholarship increases callback rates by 20 percent.
{"title":"(Incorrect) Perceived Returns and Strategic Behavior among Talented Low-Income College Graduates","authors":"Jorge M. Agüero, Francisco B. Galarza, G. Yamada","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20231059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231059","url":null,"abstract":"Job applicants use resumes to send signals to potential employers. Applicants are free to select the items that go in their resumes and are expected to include signals they perceive will help them achieve their goals and avoid those that they anticipate could hurt them. We show that 92 percent of beneficiaries of a highly selective scholarship for poor and talented students avoid listing this award when applying for jobs. This is consistent with beneficiaries perceiving a negative labor market return from sending that signal. A correspondence study shows instead that listing the scholarship increases callback rates by 20 percent.","PeriodicalId":72114,"journal":{"name":"AEA papers and proceedings. American Economic Association","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77745617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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