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China population and development studies最新文献

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The lowest fertility rates in the world? Evidence from the 2015 Chinese 1% sample census 世界上生育率最低的国家?来自2015年中国1%人口抽样普查的证据
Pub Date : 2018-09-05 DOI: 10.1007/s42379-018-0012-1
Zhigang Guo, Stuart A. Gietel-Basten, Baochang Gu
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引用次数: 1
Improving surveys with paradata: analytic uses of response time 用反似数据改进调查:响应时间的分析使用
Pub Date : 2018-06-01 DOI: 10.1007/s42379-018-0014-z
Yi Shi, Jun Feng, Xiaoqin Luo
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引用次数: 2
A study on population dynamics in "Belt & Road" countries and their implications. “一带一路”沿线国家人口动态及其启示
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 Epub Date: 2018-06-25 DOI: 10.1007/s42379-018-0007-y
Mengni Chen, Paul S F Yip

China's Belt & Road ("B&R") initiative has attracted much attention in recent years. Many studies have assessed the potential impacts of this initiative from the economic, political, foreign relations, and military perspectives. However, very little attention has been paid to examine the opportunities and challenges of this new initiative from a demographic perspective. Therefore, this study investigates into the population dynamics of 65 countries in the B&R region, and explores the demographic dynamics of this regional cooperation model. Based on graphic visualization, the demographic heterogeneities within the B&R region, in terms of current stages of demographic transitions, population age structure, and demographic windows of opportunities have been revealed. Furthermore, a model-based cluster analysis has been conducted to classify the B&R countries into two groups. One group consists of countries with younger population, low education access, and larger gender gap in the labor market, while the other group comprises of more aged population and has better performances in economic development, education enrolment, and female labor participation. The demographic windows of opportunities in the former group will remain open for the coming decades; whereas the windows have already closed or is about to close very soon in the latter group. The former group should take lessons from the latter concerning how to better prepare themselves for the demographic transition. Moreover, the curvilinear relationship between wealth and well-being has a complicated structure and the B&R initiative should focus not only on economic development but also on the human well-being.

近年来,中国的“一带一路”倡议备受关注。许多研究已经从经济、政治、外交关系和军事角度评估了这一倡议的潜在影响。但是,很少注意从人口的角度审查这一新的倡议的机会和挑战。因此,本研究以“一带一路”地区65个国家的人口动态为研究对象,探讨这一区域合作模式的人口动态。基于图形可视化技术,揭示了“一带一路”区域在人口转型阶段、人口年龄结构和人口机会窗口等方面的人口异质性。此外,基于模型的聚类分析将“一带一路”国家分为两类。一组国家人口较年轻,受教育机会较低,劳动力市场性别差距较大;另一组国家人口较为老龄化,在经济发展、教育入学率和女性劳动参与率方面表现较好。前一群体的人口机会之窗在未来几十年将继续敞开;而后者的窗口已经关闭或即将关闭。前一组人应该从后一组人那里吸取关于如何更好地为人口过渡做好准备的教训。此外,财富与福祉之间的曲线关系具有复杂的结构,“一带一路”倡议不仅要关注经济发展,还要关注人类福祉。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
China population and development studies
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