To enhance ecosystem functioning and terrestrial carbon sink capacity, the Chinese government has implemented a series of regional ecological projects. However, the effectiveness of ecological projects varies considerably due to regional climate differences and diverse implementation strategies. This study analyzed long-term time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) from 1982 to 2018 across eight Forestry Ecological Engineering Projects (FEEPs) and is the first to combine Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) with a modified residual trend analysis to quantify the contributions of these projects to vegetation greenness and productivity. The results indicate that both NDVI and GPP exhibited overall increasing trends in FEEP regions, although GPP exhibited lower magnitude and stability (with a monotonically increasing of about 35 % of pixels) than NDVI (with a monotonically increasing of about 54 % of pixels). GPP was more sensitive to environmental changes, with the proportions of pixels significantly correlated with temperature, precipitation, and sunlight being 74.0 %, 59.0 %, and 55.3 %, respectively, higher than the corresponding values for NDVI (68.6 %, 54.8 %, and 49.2 %). NDVI trend turning points were closely related to the timing of FEEP implementation, whereas GPP turning points showed weaker correlations. Our analysis indicates that FEEPs are the primary driver of NDVI increases, effectively mitigating the negative impacts of climate change on vegetation greenness, while GPP is mainly controlled by climate, with engineering measures insufficient to offset the long-term negative effects of extreme climate events. This study highlights the complex responses of vegetation to environmental changes and the potential vulnerability of ecosystem carbon sequestration under climate change.
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