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The Identification of Potential Drugs for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever: Network-Based Drug Reprofiling Study. “登革热潜在药物的鉴定:基于网络的药物再备案方法”(预印本)
Pub Date : 2023-05-09 DOI: 10.2196/37306
Praveenkumar Kochuthakidiyel Suresh, Gnanasoundari Sekar, Kavya Mallady, Wan Suriana Wan Ab Rahman, Wan Nazatul Shima Shahidan, Gokulakannan Venkatesan

Background: Dengue fever can progress to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), a more serious and occasionally fatal form of the disease. Indicators of serious disease arise about the time the fever begins to reduce (typically 3 to 7 days following symptom onset). There are currently no effective antivirals available. Drug repurposing is an emerging drug discovery process for rapidly developing effective DHF therapies. Through network pharmacology modeling, several US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved medications have already been researched for various viral outbreaks.

Objective: We aimed to identify potentially repurposable drugs for DHF among existing FDA-approved drugs for viral attacks, symptoms of viral fevers, and DHF.

Methods: Using target identification databases (GeneCards and DrugBank), we identified human-DHF virus interacting genes and drug targets against these genes. We determined hub genes and potential drugs with a network-based analysis. We performed functional enrichment and network analyses to identify pathways, protein-protein interactions, tissues where the gene expression was high, and disease-gene associations.

Results: Analyzing virus-host interactions and therapeutic targets in the human genome network revealed 45 repurposable medicines. Hub network analysis of host-virus-drug associations suggested that aspirin, captopril, and rilonacept might efficiently treat DHF. Gene enrichment analysis supported these findings. According to a Mayo Clinic report, using aspirin in the treatment of dengue fever may increase the risk of bleeding complications, but several studies from around the world suggest that thrombosis is associated with DHF. The human interactome contains the genes prostaglandin-endoperoxide synthase 2 (PTGS2), angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE), and coagulation factor II, thrombin (F2), which have been documented to have a role in the pathogenesis of disease progression in DHF, and our analysis of most of the drugs targeting these genes showed that the hub gene module (human-virus-drug) was highly enriched in tissues associated with the immune system (P=7.29 × 10-24) and human umbilical vein endothelial cells (P=1.83 × 10-20); this group of tissues acts as an anticoagulant barrier between the vessel walls and blood. Kegg analysis showed an association with genes linked to cancer (P=1.13 × 10-14) and the advanced glycation end products-receptor for advanced glycation end products signaling pathway in diabetic complications (P=3.52 × 10-14), which indicates that DHF patients with diabetes and cancer are at risk of higher pathogenicity. Thus, gene-targeting medications may play a significant part in limiting or worsening the condition of DHF patients.

Conclusions: Aspirin is not usually prescribed for dengue fever because of bleeding complications, but it

背景:登革热可发展为登革出血热(DHF),这是一种更为严重的疾病,有时甚至会致命。严重疾病的征兆大约出现在开始退烧的时候(通常是症状出现后的 3 到 7 天)。目前还没有有效的抗病毒药物。药物再利用是一种新兴的药物发现过程,用于快速开发有效的 DHF 疗法。通过网络药理学建模,美国食品和药物管理局(FDA)批准的几种药物已被研究用于各种病毒爆发:我们的目标是在现有的 FDA 批准的治疗病毒发作、病毒性发烧症状和 DHF 的药物中,找出可能用于 DHF 的可再利用药物:我们利用靶点识别数据库(GeneCards 和 DrugBank)确定了人类-DHF 病毒相互作用基因以及针对这些基因的药物靶点。我们通过网络分析确定了枢纽基因和潜在药物。我们进行了功能富集和网络分析,以确定通路、蛋白-蛋白相互作用、基因高表达的组织以及疾病-基因关联:结果:通过分析人类基因组网络中的病毒-宿主相互作用和治疗靶点,发现了45种可再利用的药物。宿主-病毒-药物关联的枢纽网络分析表明,阿司匹林、卡托普利和利洛那普可以有效治疗DHF。基因富集分析支持了这些发现。根据梅奥诊所的一份报告,使用阿司匹林治疗登革热可能会增加出血并发症的风险,但世界各地的一些研究表明,血栓形成与登革热有关。人类相互作用组包含前列腺素-内过氧化物合成酶 2(PTGS2)、血管紧张素转换酶(ACE)和凝血因子 II、凝血酶(F2)等基因,这些基因已被证实在 DHF 疾病进展的发病机制中发挥作用,我们对大多数靶向这些基因的药物进行分析后发现,中枢基因模块(人类-病毒-药物)在与免疫系统相关的组织中高度富集(P=7.29 × 10-24)和人脐静脉内皮细胞(P=1.83 × 10-20);这类组织在血管壁和血液之间起着抗凝屏障的作用。Kegg分析显示,与癌症相关的基因(P=1.13 × 10-14)和糖尿病并发症中的高级糖化终产物-高级糖化终产物受体信号通路(P=3.52 × 10-14)存在关联,这表明患有糖尿病和癌症的DHF患者有更高的致病风险。因此,基因靶向药物可能会在限制或恶化 DHF 患者病情方面发挥重要作用:由于出血并发症,阿司匹林通常不是登革热的处方药,但有报道称,使用较小剂量的阿司匹林对治疗有血栓形成的疾病有益。药物再利用是一个新兴领域,在开具处方前需要进行临床验证和剂量鉴定。进一步的回顾性和合作性国际试验对于了解这种疾病的发病机制至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
The Differentially Expressed Genes Responsible for the Development of T Helper 9 Cells From T Helper 2 Cells in Various Disease States: Immuno-Interactomics Study. 不同疾病状态下T辅助细胞2分化为T辅助细胞9的差异表达基因:免疫相互作用组学研究
Pub Date : 2023-02-23 DOI: 10.2196/42421
Manoj Khokhar, Purvi Purohit, Ashita Gadwal, Sojit Tomo, Nitin Kumar Bajpai, Ravindra Shukla

Background: T helper (Th) 9 cells are a novel subset of Th cells that develop independently from Th2 cells and are characterized by the secretion of interleukin (IL)-9. Studies have suggested the involvement of Th9 cells in variable diseases such as allergic and pulmonary diseases (eg, asthma, chronic obstructive airway disease, chronic rhinosinusitis, nasal polyps, and pulmonary hypoplasia), metabolic diseases (eg, acute leukemia, myelocytic leukemia, breast cancer, lung cancer, melanoma, pancreatic cancer), neuropsychiatric disorders (eg, Alzheimer disease), autoimmune diseases (eg, Graves disease, Crohn disease, colitis, psoriasis, systemic lupus erythematosus, systemic scleroderma, rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis, inflammatory bowel disease, atopic dermatitis, eczema), and infectious diseases (eg, tuberculosis, hepatitis). However, there is a dearth of information on its involvement in other metabolic, neuropsychiatric, and infectious diseases.

Objective: This study aims to identify significant differentially altered genes in the conversion of Th2 to Th9 cells, and their regulating microRNAs (miRs) from publicly available Gene Expression Omnibus data sets of the mouse model using in silico analysis to unravel various pathogenic pathways involved in disease processes.

Methods: Using differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified from 2 publicly available data sets (GSE99166 and GSE123501) we performed functional enrichment and network analyses to identify pathways, protein-protein interactions, miR-messenger RNA associations, and disease-gene associations related to significant differentially altered genes implicated in the conversion of Th2 to Th9 cells.

Results: We extracted 260 common downregulated, 236 common upregulated, and 634 common DEGs from the expression profiles of data sets GSE99166 and GSE123501. Codifferentially expressed ILs, cytokines, receptors, and transcription factors (TFs) were enriched in 7 crucial Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathways and Gene Ontology. We constructed the protein-protein interaction network and predicted the top regulatory miRs involved in the Th2 to Th9 differentiation pathways. We also identified various metabolic, allergic and pulmonary, neuropsychiatric, autoimmune, and infectious diseases as well as carcinomas where the differentiation of Th2 to Th9 may play a crucial role.

Conclusions: This study identified hitherto unexplored possible associations between Th9 and disease states. Some important ILs, including CCL1 (chemokine [C-C motif] ligand 1), CCL20 (chemokine [C-C motif] ligand 20), IL-13, IL-4, IL-12A, and IL-9; receptors, including IL-12RB1, IL-4RA (interleukin 9 receptor alpha), CD53 (cluster of differentiation 53), CD6 (cluster of differentiation 6), CD5 (cluster of differentiation 5), CD83 (cluster of differentiation 83), CD197 (cluster of differentiation

辅助性T细胞(Th)9是一种新的Th细胞亚群,独立于Th2细胞发育,其特征是分泌白细胞介素(IL)-9。研究表明Th9细胞参与多种疾病,如过敏性疾病和肺部疾病(如哮喘、慢性阻塞性呼吸道疾病、慢性鼻窦炎、鼻息肉和肺发育不全)、代谢性疾病(如急性白血病、粒细胞白血病、乳腺癌症、癌症、黑色素瘤、胰腺癌症)、神经精神疾病(如阿尔茨海默病)、,自身免疫性疾病(如Graves病、克罗恩病、结肠炎、银屑病、系统性红斑狼疮、系统性硬皮病、类风湿性关节炎、多发性硬化症、炎症性肠病、特应性皮炎、湿疹)和传染病(如肺结核、肝炎)。然而,缺乏关于其与其他代谢、神经精神和传染病有关的信息。本研究旨在从小鼠模型的公开基因表达综合数据集中鉴定Th2细胞向Th9细胞转化中显著差异改变的基因及其调节微小RNA(miR),使用计算机分析来揭示疾病过程中涉及的各种致病途径。使用从2个公开可用的数据集(GSE99166和GSE123501)中鉴定的差异表达基因(DEG),我们进行了功能富集和网络分析,以鉴定与Th2细胞向Th9细胞转化相关的显著差异改变基因相关的途径、蛋白质-蛋白质相互作用、miR信使RNA关联和疾病基因关联。我们从数据集GSE99166和GSE123501的表达谱中提取了260个常见下调、236个常见上调和634个常见DEG。共分化表达的ILs、细胞因子、受体和转录因子(TF)在7个关键的京都基因和基因组百科全书途径和基因本体论中富集。我们构建了蛋白质-蛋白质相互作用网络,并预测了参与Th2至Th9分化途径的顶级调控miR。我们还确定了各种代谢性、过敏性和肺部、神经精神病、自身免疫性和感染性疾病以及Th2至Th9的分化可能发挥关键作用的癌症。这项研究确定了迄今为止尚未探索的Th9与疾病状态之间的可能联系。一些重要的ILs,包括CCL1(趋化因子[C-C基序]配体1)、CCL20(趋化细胞因子[C-C基序]配体20)、IL-13、IL-4、IL-12A和IL-9;受体,包括IL-12RB1、IL-4RA(白介素9受体α)、CD53(分化簇53)、CD6(分化簇6)、CD5(分化簇5)、CD83(分化簇83)、CD197(分化簇197)、IL-1RL1(白介素1受体样1)、CD101(分化簇101)、CD96(分化簇96),CD72(分化簇72)、CD7(分化簇7)、CD152(细胞毒性T淋巴细胞相关蛋白4)、CD38(分化簇38)、CX3CR1(趋化因子[C-X3-C基序]受体1)、CTLA2A(细胞毒性T淋巴细胞相关蛋白2α)、CTLA 28和CD196(分化簇196);和TF,包括FOXP3(叉头框P3)、IRF8(干扰素调节因子8)、FOXP2(叉头盒P2)、RORA(RAR相关孤儿受体α)、AHR(芳基烃受体)、MAF(禽肌肉筋膜纤维肉瘤癌基因同源物)、SMAD6(SMAD家族成员6)、JUN(JUN原癌基因)、JAK2(Janus激酶2)、EP300(E1A结合蛋白p300)、ATF6(激活转录因子6),BTAF1(B-TFIID-TATA盒结合蛋白相关因子1)、BAFT(碱性亮氨酸拉链转录因子)、NOTCH1(神经源性基因座缺口同源蛋白1)、GATA3(GATA结合蛋白3)、SATB1(富含特殊AT序列的结合蛋白1),和PPARG(过氧化物酶体增殖物激活受体γ,能够识别Th2细胞向Th9细胞转化过程中显著差异性改变的基因。我们发现了一些常见的miR可以靶向DEG。关于Th9在代谢性疾病中的作用的研究很少,这突出了该领域的空白。我们的研究为探索Th9在各种代谢中的作用提供了理论基础c糖尿病、糖尿病肾病、高血压、缺血性中风、脂肪性肝炎、肝纤维化、肥胖、腺癌、胶质母细胞瘤和神经胶质瘤、胃恶性肿瘤、黑色素瘤、神经母细胞瘤、骨肉瘤、胰腺癌、前列腺癌和胃癌等疾病。
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引用次数: 0
SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Genomic Sequences and Their Epidemiological Correlates Regarding the End of the Pandemic: In Silico Analysis. SARS-CoV-2 Omicron 变体基因组序列及其与流行病学的相关性:硅分析。
Pub Date : 2023-01-10 eCollection Date: 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2196/42700
Ashutosh Kumar, Adil Asghar, Himanshu N Singh, Muneeb A Faiq, Sujeet Kumar, Ravi K Narayan, Gopichand Kumar, Prakhar Dwivedi, Chetan Sahni, Rakesh K Jha, Maheswari Kulandhasamy, Pranav Prasoon, Kishore Sesham, Kamla Kant, Sada N Pandey

Background: Emergence of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.529 worried health policy makers worldwide due to a large number of mutations in its genomic sequence, especially in the spike protein region. The World Health Organization (WHO) designated this variant as a global variant of concern (VOC), which was named "Omicron." Following Omicron's emergence, a surge of new COVID-19 cases was reported globally, primarily in South Africa.

Objective: The aim of this study was to understand whether Omicron had an epidemiological advantage over existing variants.

Methods: We performed an in silico analysis of the complete genomic sequences of Omicron available on the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) database to analyze the functional impact of the mutations present in this variant on virus-host interactions in terms of viral transmissibility, virulence/lethality, and immune escape. In addition, we performed a correlation analysis of the relative proportion of the genomic sequences of specific SARS-CoV-2 variants (in the period from October 1 to November 29, 2021) with matched epidemiological data (new COVID-19 cases and deaths) from South Africa.

Results: Compared with the current list of global VOCs/variants of interest (VOIs), as per the WHO, Omicron bears more sequence variation, specifically in the spike protein and host receptor-binding motif (RBM). Omicron showed the closest nucleotide and protein sequence homology with the Alpha variant for the complete sequence and the RBM. The mutations were found to be primarily condensed in the spike region (n=28-48) of the virus. Further mutational analysis showed enrichment for the mutations decreasing binding affinity to angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor and receptor-binding domain protein expression, and for increasing the propensity of immune escape. An inverse correlation of Omicron with the Delta variant was noted (r=-0.99, P<.001; 95% CI -0.99 to -0.97) in the sequences reported from South Africa postemergence of the new variant, subsequently showing a decrease. There was a steep rise in new COVID-19 cases in parallel with the increase in the proportion of Omicron isolates since the report of the first case (74%-100%). By contrast, the incidence of new deaths did not increase (r=-0.04, P>.05; 95% CI -0.52 to 0.58).

Conclusions: In silico analysis of viral genomic sequences suggests that the Omicron variant has more remarkable immune-escape ability than existing VOCs/VOIs, including Delta, but reduced virulence/lethality than other reported variants. The higher power for immune escape for Omicron was a likely reason for the resurgence in COVID-19 cases and its rapid rise as the globally dominant strain. Being more infectious but less lethal than the existing variants, Omicron could have plausibly led to widespread unnoticed new, repeated, and vacci

背景:SARS-CoV-2 新变异体 B.1.1.529 的出现使全世界的卫生决策者忧心忡忡,因为它的基因组序列中出现了大量变异,尤其是在尖峰蛋白区。世界卫生组织(WHO)将这一变异体定为全球关注变异体(VOC),并命名为 "Omicron"。Omicron 出现后,全球报告的 COVID-19 新病例激增,主要发生在南非:本研究旨在了解 Omicron 与现有变体相比是否具有流行病学优势:我们对全球禽流感数据共享倡议(GISAID)数据库中的 Omicron 完整基因组序列进行了硅学分析,以分析该变异株中出现的突变在病毒传播性、毒力/致死性和免疫逃逸方面对病毒-宿主相互作用的功能影响。此外,我们还对特定 SARS-CoV-2 变异株基因组序列的相对比例(2021 年 10 月 1 日至 11 月 29 日期间)与南非的匹配流行病学数据(COVID-19 新发病例和死亡病例)进行了相关性分析:结果:与世界卫生组织目前列出的全球 VOCs/相关变异体(VOIs)相比,Omicron 具有更多的序列变异,特别是在尖峰蛋白和宿主受体结合基序(RBM)方面。在完整序列和 RBM 方面,Omicron 与 Alpha 变体的核苷酸和蛋白质序列同源性最接近。突变主要集中在病毒的尖峰区(n=28-48)。进一步的突变分析表明,富集的突变降低了与血管紧张素转换酶2受体的结合亲和力和受体结合域蛋白的表达,并增加了免疫逃逸的倾向。Omicron与Delta变异呈反相关(r=-0.99,PP>.05;95% CI -0.52至0.58):对病毒基因组序列的硅学分析表明,Omicron变体比包括Delta在内的现有VOC/VOIs具有更强的免疫逃逸能力,但比其他已报道的变体毒力/致死率更低。Omicron 的免疫逃逸能力更强,这很可能是 COVID-19 病例再次出现并迅速成为全球优势菌株的原因。与现有变异株相比,Omicron 的传染性更强,但致命性较低,因此有可能导致新的、重复的和疫苗突破性感染的广泛出现而不为人所察觉,从而提高人群免疫屏障,防止新的致命变异株的出现。因此,Omicron 变体可能会为大流行的结束铺平道路。
{"title":"SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Genomic Sequences and Their Epidemiological Correlates Regarding the End of the Pandemic: In Silico Analysis.","authors":"Ashutosh Kumar, Adil Asghar, Himanshu N Singh, Muneeb A Faiq, Sujeet Kumar, Ravi K Narayan, Gopichand Kumar, Prakhar Dwivedi, Chetan Sahni, Rakesh K Jha, Maheswari Kulandhasamy, Pranav Prasoon, Kishore Sesham, Kamla Kant, Sada N Pandey","doi":"10.2196/42700","DOIUrl":"10.2196/42700","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Emergence of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.529 worried health policy makers worldwide due to a large number of mutations in its genomic sequence, especially in the spike protein region. The World Health Organization (WHO) designated this variant as a global variant of concern (VOC), which was named \"Omicron.\" Following Omicron's emergence, a surge of new COVID-19 cases was reported globally, primarily in South Africa.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>The aim of this study was to understand whether Omicron had an epidemiological advantage over existing variants.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We performed an in silico analysis of the complete genomic sequences of Omicron available on the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) database to analyze the functional impact of the mutations present in this variant on virus-host interactions in terms of viral transmissibility, virulence/lethality, and immune escape. In addition, we performed a correlation analysis of the relative proportion of the genomic sequences of specific SARS-CoV-2 variants (in the period from October 1 to November 29, 2021) with matched epidemiological data (new COVID-19 cases and deaths) from South Africa.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Compared with the current list of global VOCs/variants of interest (VOIs), as per the WHO, Omicron bears more sequence variation, specifically in the spike protein and host receptor-binding motif (RBM). Omicron showed the closest nucleotide and protein sequence homology with the Alpha variant for the complete sequence and the RBM. The mutations were found to be primarily condensed in the spike region (n=28-48) of the virus. Further mutational analysis showed enrichment for the mutations decreasing binding affinity to angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor and receptor-binding domain protein expression, and for increasing the propensity of immune escape. An inverse correlation of Omicron with the Delta variant was noted (r=-0.99, <i>P</i><.001; 95% CI -0.99 to -0.97) in the sequences reported from South Africa postemergence of the new variant, subsequently showing a decrease. There was a steep rise in new COVID-19 cases in parallel with the increase in the proportion of Omicron isolates since the report of the first case (74%-100%). By contrast, the incidence of new deaths did not increase (r=-0.04, <i>P</i>>.05; 95% CI -0.52 to 0.58).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>In silico analysis of viral genomic sequences suggests that the Omicron variant has more remarkable immune-escape ability than existing VOCs/VOIs, including Delta, but reduced virulence/lethality than other reported variants. The higher power for immune escape for Omicron was a likely reason for the resurgence in COVID-19 cases and its rapid rise as the globally dominant strain. Being more infectious but less lethal than the existing variants, Omicron could have plausibly led to widespread unnoticed new, repeated, and vacci","PeriodicalId":73552,"journal":{"name":"JMIR bioinformatics and biotechnology","volume":"4 ","pages":"e42700"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9843602/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10598394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mutational Patterns Observed in SARS-CoV-2 Genomes Sampled From Successive Epochs Delimited by Major Public Health Events in Ontario, Canada: Genomic Surveillance Study. 在加拿大安大略省重大公共卫生事件界定的连续时期采样的严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型基因组中观察到的突变模式:一项基因组监测研究(预印本)
Pub Date : 2022-12-22 DOI: 10.2196/42243
David Chen, Gurjit S Randhawa, Maximillian Pm Soltysiak, Camila Pe de Souza, Lila Kari, Shiva M Singh, Kathleen A Hill

Background: The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with mutations associated with increased transmissibility and virulence is a public health concern in Ontario, Canada. Characterizing how the mutational patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 genome have changed over time can shed light on the driving factors, including selection for increased fitness and host immune response, that may contribute to the emergence of novel variants. Moreover, the study of SARS-CoV-2 in the microcosm of Ontario, Canada can reveal how different province-specific public health policies over time may be associated with observed mutational patterns as a model system.

Objective: This study aimed to perform a comprehensive analysis of single base substitution (SBS) types, counts, and genomic locations observed in SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences sampled in Ontario, Canada. Comparisons of mutational patterns were conducted between sequences sampled during 4 different epochs delimited by major public health events to track the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 mutational landscape over 2 years.

Methods: In total, 24,244 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences and associated metadata sampled in Ontario, Canada from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021, were retrieved from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data database. Sequences were assigned to 4 epochs delimited by major public health events based on the sampling date. SBSs from each SARS-CoV-2 sequence were identified relative to the MN996528.1 reference genome. Catalogues of SBS types and counts were generated to estimate the impact of selection in each open reading frame, and identify mutation clusters. The estimation of mutational fitness over time was performed using the Augur pipeline.

Results: The biases in SBS types and proportions observed support previous reports of host antiviral defense activity involving the SARS-CoV-2 genome. There was an increase in U>C substitutions associated with adenosine deaminase acting on RNA (ADAR) activity uniquely observed during Epoch 4. The burden of novel SBSs observed in SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences was the greatest in Epoch 2 (median 5), followed by Epoch 3 (median 4). Clusters of SBSs were observed in the spike protein open reading frame, ORF1a, and ORF3a. The high proportion of nonsynonymous SBSs and increasing dN/dS metric (ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous mutations in a given open reading frame) to above 1 in Epoch 4 indicate positive selection of the spike protein open reading frame.

Conclusions: Quantitative analysis of the mutational patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 genome in the microcosm of Ontario, Canada within early consecutive epochs of the pandemic tracked the mutational dynamics in the context of public health events that instigate significant shifts in selection and mutagenesis. Continued genomic surveillance of emergent variants will be useful for the design of public he

背景:在加拿大安大略省,SARS-CoV-2 变异株的出现与传播性和毒力增强有关,是一个公共卫生问题。研究 SARS-CoV-2 基因组的变异模式如何随着时间的推移而发生变化,可以揭示可能导致新型变异体出现的驱动因素,包括对提高适应性和宿主免疫反应的选择。此外,在加拿大安大略省这个微观世界对 SARS-CoV-2 进行研究,可以揭示随着时间推移,不同省份的公共卫生政策如何与作为模型系统的观察到的变异模式相关联:本研究旨在全面分析在加拿大安大略省采样的 SARS-CoV-2 基因组序列中观察到的单碱基置换(SBS)类型、数量和基因组位置。在以重大公共卫生事件为分界线的 4 个不同时期采样的序列之间进行了突变模式比较,以追踪两年来 SARS-CoV-2 突变情况的演变:从全球流感数据共享计划数据库中检索了 2020 年 1 月 1 日至 2021 年 12 月 31 日期间在加拿大安大略省采样的 24,244 个 SARS-CoV-2 基因组序列和相关元数据。根据采样日期,序列被分配到以重大公共卫生事件为分界的 4 个时代。根据 MN996528.1 参考基因组鉴定每个 SARS-CoV-2 序列中的 SBS。生成 SBS 类型和数量的目录,以估计每个开放阅读框中选择的影响,并确定突变群。使用 Augur 管道对随时间变化的突变适配性进行了估计:结果:观察到的 SBS 类型和比例偏差支持以前关于 SARS-CoV-2 基因组中宿主抗病毒防御活动的报道。在第 4 个纪元中,与作用于 RNA 的腺苷脱氨酶(ADAR)活性有关的 U>C 替换有所增加。在 SARS-CoV-2 基因组序列中观察到的新型 SBS 的数量在第 2 个纪元最多(中位数为 5),其次是第 3 个纪元(中位数为 4)。在尖峰蛋白开放阅读框、ORF1a 和 ORF3a 中观察到成群的 SBSs。非同义 SBS 的比例很高,dN/dS 指标(特定开放阅读框中非同义突变与同义突变之比)在第四纪元增至 1 以上,这表明尖峰蛋白开放阅读框存在正选择:对加拿大安大略省微观世界中的 SARS-CoV-2 基因组变异模式进行定量分析,发现了在公共卫生事件背景下的变异动态,这些公共卫生事件引发了选择和诱变的重大转变。继续对新出现的变异体进行基因组监测将有助于制定公共卫生政策,以应对不断演变的 COVID-19 大流行。
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引用次数: 0
The Utilization of Heart Rate Variability for Autonomic Nervous System Assessment in Healthy Pregnant Women: Systematic Review. 心率变异性在健康孕妇自主神经系统评估中的应用:系统综述(预印本)
Pub Date : 2022-11-17 DOI: 10.2196/36791
Zahra Sharifiheris, Amir Rahmani, Joseph Onwuka, Miriam Bender

Background: The autonomic nervous system (ANS) plays a central role in pregnancy-induced adaptations, and failure in the required adaptations is associated with adverse neonatal and maternal outcomes. Mapping maternal ANS function in healthy pregnancy may help to understand ANS function.

Objective: This study aimed to systematically review studies on the use of heart rate variability (HRV) monitoring to measure ANS function during pregnancy and determine whether specific HRV patterns representing normal ANS function have been identified during pregnancy.

Methods: The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guideline was used to guide the systematic review. The CINAHL, PubMed, SCOPUS, and Web of Science databases were searched to comprehensively identify articles without a time span limitation. Studies were included if they assessed HRV in healthy pregnant individuals at least once during pregnancy or labor, with or without a comparison group (eg, complicated pregnancy). Quality assessment of the included literature was performed using the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) tool. A narrative synthesis approach was used for data extraction and analysis, as the articles were heterogenous in scope, approaches, methods, and variables assessed, which precluded traditional meta-analysis approaches being used.

Results: After full screening, 8 studies met the inclusion criteria. In 88% (7/8) of the studies, HRV was measured using electrocardiogram and operationalized in 3 different ways: linear frequency domain (FD), linear time domain (TD), and nonlinear methods. FD was measured in all (8/8), TD in 75% (6/8), and nonlinear methods in 25% (2/8) of the studies. The assessment duration varied from 5 minutes to 24 hours. TD indexes and most of the FD indexes decreased from the first to the third trimesters in the majority (5/7, 71%) of the studies. Of the FD indexes, low frequency (LF [nu]) and the LF/high frequency (HF) ratio showed an ascending trend from early to late pregnancy, indicating an increase in sympathetic activity toward the end of the pregnancy.

Conclusions: We identified 3 HRV operationalization methods along with potentially indicative HRV patterns. However, we found no justification for the selection of measurement tools, measurement time frames, and operationalization methods, which threaten the generalizability and reliability of pattern findings. More research is needed to determine the criteria and methods for determining HRV patterns corresponding to ANS functioning in healthy pregnant persons.

背景:自律神经系统(ANS)在妊娠诱导的适应过程中发挥着核心作用,而所需适应的失败与新生儿和孕产妇的不良结局有关。绘制健康妊娠期母体自律神经系统的功能图有助于了解自律神经系统的功能:本研究旨在系统回顾有关使用心率变异性(HRV)监测来测量孕期自律神经系统功能的研究,并确定是否已发现代表孕期正常自律神经系统功能的特定 HRV 模式:方法:采用系统综述和元分析首选报告项目(PRISMA)指南指导系统综述。对 CINAHL、PubMed、SCOPUS 和 Web of Science 数据库进行了检索,以全面识别不受时间跨度限制的文章。如果研究对健康孕妇在妊娠或分娩期间的心率变异进行了至少一次评估,无论是否有对比组(如复杂妊娠),均纳入研究。采用美国国家心肺血液研究所(NHLBI)工具对纳入的文献进行质量评估。由于文章在范围、方法、方式和评估变量方面存在差异,因此无法使用传统的荟萃分析方法,因此采用了叙事综合法进行数据提取和分析:经过全面筛选,8 项研究符合纳入标准。在88%(7/8)的研究中,心率变异是通过心电图测量的,并以3种不同的方式进行操作:线性频域(FD)、线性时域(TD)和非线性方法。所有研究(8/8)都测量了线性频域(FD),75% 的研究(6/8)测量了线性时域(TD),25% 的研究(2/8)测量了非线性方法。评估持续时间从 5 分钟到 24 小时不等。在大多数研究中(5/7,71%),TD 指数和大多数 FD 指数从妊娠头三个月到妊娠三个月都有所下降。在FD指数中,低频(LF [nu])和低频/高频(HF)比值从孕早期到孕晚期呈上升趋势,表明交感神经活动在妊娠末期增加:我们确定了三种心率变异操作方法以及可能具有指示性的心率变异模式。然而,我们发现在选择测量工具、测量时间范围和操作方法时都缺乏合理性,这对模式研究结果的普遍性和可靠性构成了威胁。需要进行更多的研究,以确定与健康孕妇自律神经系统功能相对应的心率变异模式的标准和方法。
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引用次数: 0
Monitoring Risk Factors and Improving Adherence to Therapy in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease (Smit-CKD Project): Pilot Observational Study. 监测CKD患者的危险因素并提高对治疗的依从性。SMIT-CKD项目。(预印本)
Pub Date : 2022-11-15 DOI: 10.2196/36766
Antonio Vilasi, Vincenzo Antonio Panuccio, Salvatore Morante, Antonino Villa, Maria Carmela Versace, Sabrina Mezzatesta, Sergio Mercuri, Rosalinda Inguanta, Giuseppe Aiello, Demetrio Cutrupi, Rossella Puglisi, Salvatore Capria, Maurizio Li Vigni, Giovanni Tripepi, Claudia Torino

Background: Chronic kidney disease is a major public health issue, with about 13% of the general adult population and 30% of the elderly affected. Patients in the last stage of this disease have an almost uniquely high risk of death and cardiovascular events, with reduced adherence to therapy representing an additional risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Considering the increased penetration of mobile phones, a mobile app could educate patients to autonomously monitor cardiorenal risk factors.

Objective: With this background in mind, we developed an integrated system of a server and app with the aim of improving self-monitoring of cardiovascular and renal risk factors and adherence to therapy.

Methods: The software infrastructure for both the Smit-CKD server and Smit-CKD app was developed using standard web-oriented development methodologies preferring open source tools when available. To make the Smit-CKD app suitable for Android and iOS, platforms that allow the development of a multiplatform app starting from a single source code were used. The integrated system was field tested with the help of 22 participants. User satisfaction and adherence to therapy were measured by questionnaires specifically designed for this study; regular use of the app was measured using the daily reports available on the platform.

Results: The Smit-CKD app allows the monitoring of cardiorenal risk factors, such as blood pressure, weight, and blood glucose. Collected data are transmitted in real time to the referring general practitioner. In addition, special reminders improve adherence to the medication regimen. Via the Smit-CKD server, general practitioners can monitor the clinical status of their patients and their adherence to therapy. During the test phase, 73% (16/22) of subjects entered all the required data regularly and sent feedback on drug intake. After 6 months of use, the percentage of regular intake of medications rose from 64% (14/22) to 82% (18/22). Analysis of the evaluation questionnaires showed that both the app and server components were well accepted by the users.

Conclusions: Our study demonstrated that a simple mobile app, created to self-monitor modifiable cardiorenal risk factors and adherence to therapy, is well tolerated by patients affected by chronic kidney disease. Further studies are required to clarify if the use of this integrated system will have long-term effects on therapy adherence and if self-monitoring of risk factors will improve clinical outcomes in this population.

背景:慢性肾脏病是一个重大的公共卫生问题,约有 13% 的成年人和 30% 的老年人患有慢性肾脏病。处于这种疾病最后阶段的患者死亡和发生心血管事件的风险几乎是独一无二的高,而治疗依从性的降低则是心血管疾病发病率和死亡率的另一个风险因素。考虑到手机的普及率越来越高,一款手机应用可以教育患者自主监测心肾风险因素:考虑到这一背景,我们开发了一个由服务器和应用程序组成的集成系统,旨在改善心血管和肾脏风险因素的自我监测以及坚持治疗的情况:Smit-CKD 服务器和 Smit-CKD 应用程序的软件基础架构是采用标准的面向网络的开发方法开发的,在可用的情况下,我们更倾向于使用开源工具。为了使 Smit-CKD 应用程序适用于 Android 和 iOS,我们使用了允许从单一源代码开始开发多平台应用程序的平台。在 22 名参与者的帮助下,对集成系统进行了实地测试。用户满意度和治疗依从性通过专门为本研究设计的问卷进行测量;应用程序的定期使用通过平台上的每日报告进行测量:结果:Smit-CKD 应用程序可以监测心肾风险因素,如血压、体重和血糖。收集到的数据会实时传送给转诊的全科医生。此外,特别提醒功能还能提高药物治疗的依从性。通过 Smit-CKD 服务器,全科医生可以监控病人的临床状态及其坚持治疗的情况。在测试阶段,73% 的受试者(16/22)定期输入所有必要数据,并发送药物摄入反馈。使用 6 个月后,定期服药的比例从 64%(14/22)上升到 82%(18/22)。对评估问卷的分析表明,应用程序和服务器组件都得到了用户的广泛认可:我们的研究表明,慢性肾脏病患者对一款用于自我监测可改变的心肾风险因素和坚持治疗的简单移动应用程序的接受度很高。还需要进一步研究,以明确使用这一综合系统是否会对坚持治疗产生长期影响,以及自我监测风险因素是否会改善这一人群的临床疗效。
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引用次数: 0
Prediction of Antibody-Antigen Binding via Machine Learning: Development of Data Sets and Evaluation of Methods. 通过机器学习预测抗体-抗原结合:数据集的开发和方法的评估
Pub Date : 2022-10-28 DOI: 10.2196/29404
Chao Ye, Wenxing Hu, Bruno Gaeta

Background: The mammalian immune system is able to generate antibodies against a huge variety of antigens, including bacteria, viruses, and toxins. The ultradeep DNA sequencing of rearranged immunoglobulin genes has considerable potential in furthering our understanding of the immune response, but it is limited by the lack of a high-throughput, sequence-based method for predicting the antigen(s) that a given immunoglobulin recognizes.

Objective: As a step toward the prediction of antibody-antigen binding from sequence data alone, we aimed to compare a range of machine learning approaches that were applied to a collated data set of antibody-antigen pairs in order to predict antibody-antigen binding from sequence data.

Methods: Data for training and testing were extracted from the Protein Data Bank and the Coronavirus Antibody Database, and additional antibody-antigen pair data were generated by using a molecular docking protocol. Several machine learning methods, including the weighted nearest neighbor method, the nearest neighbor method with the BLOSUM62 matrix, and the random forest method, were applied to the problem.

Results: The final data set contained 1157 antibodies and 57 antigens that were combined in 5041 antibody-antigen pairs. The best performance for the prediction of interactions was obtained by using the nearest neighbor method with the BLOSUM62 matrix, which resulted in around 82% accuracy on the full data set. These results provide a useful frame of reference, as well as protocols and considerations, for machine learning and data set creation in the prediction of antibody-antigen binding.

Conclusions: Several machine learning approaches were compared to predict antibody-antigen interaction from protein sequences. Both the data set (in CSV format) and the machine learning program (coded in Python) are freely available for download on GitHub.

哺乳动物的免疫系统能够产生针对各种抗原的抗体,包括细菌、病毒和毒素。重排免疫球蛋白基因的超深度DNA测序在促进我们对免疫反应的理解方面具有相当大的潜力,但由于缺乏高通量、基于序列的方法来预测给定免疫球蛋白识别的抗原,它受到限制。作为仅从序列数据预测抗体-抗原结合的一步,我们的目标是比较应用于抗体-抗原对整理数据集的一系列机器学习方法,以便从序列数据预测抗体-抗原结合。从蛋白质数据库和冠状病毒抗体数据库中提取训练和测试数据,并使用分子对接协议生成额外的抗体-抗原对数据。将加权最近邻法、BLOSUM62矩阵最近邻法、随机森林法等机器学习方法应用于该问题。最终的数据集包含1157种抗体和57种抗原,它们被组合成5041对抗体-抗原对。使用BLOSUM62矩阵的最近邻方法预测相互作用的效果最好,在整个数据集上的准确率约为82%。这些结果为预测抗体-抗原结合的机器学习和数据集创建提供了有用的参考框架,以及协议和考虑因素。比较了几种机器学习方法来预测蛋白质序列中的抗体-抗原相互作用。数据集(CSV格式)和机器学习程序(Python编码)都可以在GitHub上免费下载。
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引用次数: 0
Multiple-Inputs Convolutional Neural Network for COVID-19 Classification and Critical Region Screening From Chest X-ray Radiographs: Model Development and Performance Evaluation. 多输入卷积神经网络用于 COVID-19 分类和胸部 X 光片关键区域筛查:模型开发与性能评估
Pub Date : 2022-10-04 eCollection Date: 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2196/36660
Zhongqiang Li, Zheng Li, Luke Yao, Qing Chen, Jian Zhang, Xin Li, Ji-Ming Feng, Yanping Li, Jian Xu

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is becoming one of the largest, unprecedented health crises, and chest X-ray radiography (CXR) plays a vital role in diagnosing COVID-19. However, extracting and finding useful image features from CXRs demand a heavy workload for radiologists.

Objective: The aim of this study was to design a novel multiple-inputs (MI) convolutional neural network (CNN) for the classification of COVID-19 and extraction of critical regions from CXRs. We also investigated the effect of the number of inputs on the performance of our new MI-CNN model.

Methods: A total of 6205 CXR images (including 3021 COVID-19 CXRs and 3184 normal CXRs) were used to test our MI-CNN models. CXRs could be evenly segmented into different numbers (2, 4, and 16) of individual regions. Each region could individually serve as one of the MI-CNN inputs. The CNN features of these MI-CNN inputs would then be fused for COVID-19 classification. More importantly, the contributions of each CXR region could be evaluated through assessing the number of images that were accurately classified by their corresponding regions in the testing data sets.

Results: In both the whole-image and left- and right-lung region of interest (LR-ROI) data sets, MI-CNNs demonstrated good efficiency for COVID-19 classification. In particular, MI-CNNs with more inputs (2-, 4-, and 16-input MI-CNNs) had better efficiency in recognizing COVID-19 CXRs than the 1-input CNN. Compared to the whole-image data sets, the efficiency of LR-ROI data sets showed approximately 4% lower accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and precision (over 91%). In considering the contributions of each region, one of the possible reasons for this reduced performance was that nonlung regions (eg, region 16) provided false-positive contributions to COVID-19 classification. The MI-CNN with the LR-ROI data set could provide a more accurate evaluation of the contribution of each region and COVID-19 classification. Additionally, the right-lung regions had higher contributions to the classification of COVID-19 CXRs, whereas the left-lung regions had higher contributions to identifying normal CXRs.

Conclusions: Overall, MI-CNNs could achieve higher accuracy with an increasing number of inputs (eg, 16-input MI-CNN). This approach could assist radiologists in identifying COVID-19 CXRs and in screening the critical regions related to COVID-19 classifications.

背景:COVID-19 大流行正在成为最大的、前所未有的健康危机之一,而胸部 X 射线摄影(CXR)在诊断 COVID-19 方面发挥着至关重要的作用。然而,从 CXR 中提取和寻找有用的图像特征对放射科医生来说是一项繁重的工作:本研究旨在设计一种新型多输入(MI)卷积神经网络(CNN),用于对 COVID-19 进行分类,并从 CXR 中提取关键区域。我们还研究了输入数量对新型 MI-CNN 模型性能的影响:我们共使用了 6205 张 CXR 图像(包括 3021 张 COVID-19 CXR 和 3184 张正常 CXR)来测试 MI-CNN 模型。CXR 可被均匀分割成不同数量(2、4 和 16)的单个区域。每个区域可单独作为 MI-CNN 的输入之一。然后,这些 MI-CNN 输入的 CNN 特征将被融合用于 COVID-19 分类。更重要的是,可以通过评估测试数据集中相应区域准确分类的图像数量来评估每个 CXR 区域的贡献:结果:在整个图像和左右肺感兴趣区(LR-ROI)数据集中,MI-CNN 在 COVID-19 分类中都表现出了良好的效率。尤其是输入较多的 MI-CNN(2 输入、4 输入和 16 输入 MI-CNN)在识别 COVID-19 CXR 方面的效率要高于 1 输入 CNN。与全图像数据集相比,LR-ROI 数据集的准确率、灵敏度、特异性和精确度(超过 91%)均低约 4%。考虑到每个区域的贡献,性能下降的可能原因之一是非肺区域(如第 16 区域)对 COVID-19 分类提供了假阳性贡献。使用 LR-ROI 数据集的 MI-CNN 可以更准确地评估每个区域的贡献和 COVID-19 分类。此外,右肺区域对 COVID-19 CXR 分类的贡献率较高,而左肺区域对识别正常 CXR 的贡献率较高:总的来说,MI-CNN 可以随着输入数量的增加(如 16 输入 MI-CNN)而获得更高的准确率。这种方法可以帮助放射科医生识别 COVID-19 CXR,并筛选出与 COVID-19 分类相关的关键区域。
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引用次数: 0
Treatment Discontinuation Prediction in Patients With Diabetes Using a Ranking Model: Machine Learning Model Development. 使用排序模型预测糖尿病患者的停药:机器学习模型开发
Pub Date : 2022-09-23 DOI: 10.2196/37951
Hisashi Kurasawa, Kayo Waki, Akihiro Chiba, Tomohisa Seki, Katsuyoshi Hayashi, Akinori Fujino, Tsuneyuki Haga, Takashi Noguchi, Kazuhiko Ohe

Background: Treatment discontinuation (TD) is one of the major prognostic issues in diabetes care, and several models have been proposed to predict a missed appointment that may lead to TD in patients with diabetes by using binary classification models for the early detection of TD and for providing intervention support for patients. However, as binary classification models output the probability of a missed appointment occurring within a predetermined period, they are limited in their ability to estimate the magnitude of TD risk in patients with inconsistent intervals between appointments, making it difficult to prioritize patients for whom intervention support should be provided.

Objective: This study aimed to develop a machine-learned prediction model that can output a TD risk score defined by the length of time until TD and prioritize patients for intervention according to their TD risk.

Methods: This model included patients with diagnostic codes indicative of diabetes at the University of Tokyo Hospital between September 3, 2012, and May 17, 2014. The model was internally validated with patients from the same hospital from May 18, 2014, to January 29, 2016. The data used in this study included 7551 patients who visited the hospital after January 1, 2004, and had diagnostic codes indicative of diabetes. In particular, data that were recorded in the electronic medical records between September 3, 2012, and January 29, 2016, were used. The main outcome was the TD of a patient, which was defined as missing a scheduled clinical appointment and having no hospital visits within 3 times the average number of days between the visits of the patient and within 60 days. The TD risk score was calculated by using the parameters derived from the machine-learned ranking model. The prediction capacity was evaluated by using test data with the C-index for the performance of ranking patients, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and area under the precision-recall curve for discrimination, in addition to a calibration plot.

Results: The means (95% confidence limits) of the C-index, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and area under the precision-recall curve for the TD risk score were 0.749 (0.655, 0.823), 0.758 (0.649, 0.857), and 0.713 (0.554, 0.841), respectively. The observed and predicted probabilities were correlated with the calibration plots.

Conclusions: A TD risk score was developed for patients with diabetes by combining a machine-learned method with electronic medical records. The score calculation can be integrated into medical records to identify patients at high risk of TD, which would be useful in supporting diabetes care and preventing TD.

停药(TD)是糖尿病护理中的主要预后问题之一,已经提出了几种模型,通过使用二元分类模型来早期检测TD并为患者提供干预支持,来预测可能导致糖尿病患者出现TD的错过预约。然而,由于二元分类模型输出了在预定时间内错过预约的概率,因此它们在估计预约间隔不一致的患者的TD风险大小的能力有限,因此很难优先考虑应该为其提供干预支持的患者。本研究旨在开发一种机器学习预测模型,该模型可以输出由到达TD的时间长度定义的TD风险评分,并根据患者的TD风险优先进行干预。该模型包括2012年9月3日至2014年5月17日期间在东京大学医院诊断出糖尿病的患者。该模型于2014年5月18日至2016年1月29日在同一家医院的患者中进行了内部验证。本研究中使用的数据包括7551名2004年1月1日后就诊的患者,他们的诊断代码表明患有糖尿病。特别是,使用了2012年9月3日至2016年1月29日期间记录在电子医疗记录中的数据。主要结果是患者的TD,它被定义为错过了预定的临床预约,并且在患者就诊之间平均天数的3倍内和60天内没有去医院就诊。TD风险评分是通过使用机器学习排名模型得出的参数来计算的。除了校准图外,还通过使用测试数据评估预测能力,该测试数据具有用于对患者进行排名的C指数、受试者操作特征曲线下的面积和用于区分的精度-召回曲线下的区域。TD风险评分的C指数平均值(95%置信限)、受试者操作特征曲线下面积和精确回忆曲线下面积分别为0.749(0.655,0.823)、0.758(0.649,0.857)和0.713(0.554,0.841)。观测和预测的概率与校准图相关。通过将机器学习方法与电子医疗记录相结合,为糖尿病患者开发了TD风险评分。得分计算可以集成到医疗记录中,以识别TD高危患者,这将有助于支持糖尿病护理和预防TD。
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引用次数: 0
A Bioinformatics Tool for Predicting Future COVID-19 Waves Based on a Retrospective Analysis of the Second Wave in India: Model Development Study. 基于对印度第二波COVID-19疫情的回顾性分析,用于预测未来COVID-19疫情的生物信息学工具:模型开发研究。
Pub Date : 2022-09-22 eCollection Date: 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2196/36860
Ashutosh Kumar, Adil Asghar, Prakhar Dwivedi, Gopichand Kumar, Ravi K Narayan, Rakesh K Jha, Rakesh Parashar, Chetan Sahni, Sada N Pandey

Background: Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, health policymakers globally have been attempting to predict an impending wave of COVID-19. India experienced a devastating second wave of COVID-19 in the late first week of May 2021. We retrospectively analyzed the viral genomic sequences and epidemiological data reflecting the emergence and spread of the second wave of COVID-19 in India to construct a prediction model.

Objective: We aimed to develop a bioinformatics tool that can predict an impending COVID-19 wave.

Methods: We analyzed the time series distribution of genomic sequence data for SARS-CoV-2 and correlated it with epidemiological data for new cases and deaths for the corresponding period of the second wave. In addition, we analyzed the phylodynamics of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in the Indian population during the study period.

Results: Our prediction analysis showed that the first signs of the arrival of the second wave could be seen by the end of January 2021, about 2 months before its peak in May 2021. By the end of March 2021, it was distinct. B.1.617 lineage variants powered the wave, most notably B.1.617.2 (Delta variant).

Conclusions: Based on the observations of this study, we propose that genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 variants, complemented with epidemiological data, can be a promising tool to predict impending COVID-19 waves.

背景:自 COVID-19 大流行开始以来,全球卫生决策者一直试图预测即将到来的 COVID-19 浪潮。2021 年 5 月下旬的第一周,印度经历了 COVID-19 的第二波毁灭性疫情。我们回顾性地分析了反映印度第二波 COVID-19 出现和传播的病毒基因组序列和流行病学数据,以构建一个预测模型:我们旨在开发一种生物信息学工具,用于预测即将出现的 COVID-19 病毒潮:我们分析了 SARS-CoV-2 基因组序列数据的时间序列分布,并将其与第二波相应时期的新发病例和死亡病例的流行病学数据进行了关联。此外,我们还分析了研究期间印度人群中流行的 SARS-CoV-2 变种的系统动力学:我们的预测分析表明,2021 年 1 月底,即 2021 年 5 月达到高峰前约 2 个月,可以看到第二波疫情来临的最初迹象。到 2021 年 3 月底,第二波已非常明显。B.1.617系变体为这一浪潮提供了动力,其中最显著的是B.1.617.2(Delta变体):根据本研究的观察结果,我们建议对 SARS-CoV-2 变异株进行基因组监测,并辅以流行病学数据,这将是预测即将到来的 COVID-19 病毒潮的有效工具。
{"title":"A Bioinformatics Tool for Predicting Future COVID-19 Waves Based on a Retrospective Analysis of the Second Wave in India: Model Development Study.","authors":"Ashutosh Kumar, Adil Asghar, Prakhar Dwivedi, Gopichand Kumar, Ravi K Narayan, Rakesh K Jha, Rakesh Parashar, Chetan Sahni, Sada N Pandey","doi":"10.2196/36860","DOIUrl":"10.2196/36860","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, health policymakers globally have been attempting to predict an impending wave of COVID-19. India experienced a devastating second wave of COVID-19 in the late first week of May 2021. We retrospectively analyzed the viral genomic sequences and epidemiological data reflecting the emergence and spread of the second wave of COVID-19 in India to construct a prediction model.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>We aimed to develop a bioinformatics tool that can predict an impending COVID-19 wave.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analyzed the time series distribution of genomic sequence data for SARS-CoV-2 and correlated it with epidemiological data for new cases and deaths for the corresponding period of the second wave. In addition, we analyzed the phylodynamics of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in the Indian population during the study period.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Our prediction analysis showed that the first signs of the arrival of the second wave could be seen by the end of January 2021, about 2 months before its peak in May 2021. By the end of March 2021, it was distinct. B.1.617 lineage variants powered the wave, most notably B.1.617.2 (Delta variant).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Based on the observations of this study, we propose that genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 variants, complemented with epidemiological data, can be a promising tool to predict impending COVID-19 waves.</p>","PeriodicalId":73552,"journal":{"name":"JMIR bioinformatics and biotechnology","volume":" ","pages":"e36860"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9516867/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"33486448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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JMIR bioinformatics and biotechnology
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