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Attribution of Extreme Events to Climate Change 极端事件归因于气候变化
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-08-22 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-112621-083538
F. Otto
Within the past decade, the attribution of extreme weather events and their impacts has enabled scientists, the public, and policymakers alike to connect real-world experiences of extreme weather events with scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change. Attribution studies of recent extreme weather events have formed a new and important line of evidence in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report understanding present-day impacts of climate change. IPCC studies using different methods of event attribution have been assessed together, highlighting that these differences are smaller than the academic discourse on the methods suggests. This development raised two important research questions the science needs to answer: First, how do we formally combine attribution statements using highly conditional methods with probabilistic assessments of how climate change alters the likelihood and intensity of extreme weather events? Second, under what circumstances are individual attribution studies still necessary and to what extent do existing attribution studies provide enough information to answer societal questions? Furthermore, the scientific development still leaves important gaps, particularly in countries of the Global South, leading to ethical questions around the need and requirement of attribution of extreme events in policy contexts, informing adaptation and loss and damage and the role of vulnerability. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Volume 48 is October 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
在过去十年中,极端天气事件的归因及其影响使科学家、公众和政策制定者能够将极端天气事件的真实经历与对人为气候变化的科学理解联系起来。在最近的政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)评估报告中,对最近极端天气事件的归因研究形成了一条新的重要证据线,以了解气候变化对当今的影响。IPCC使用不同事件归因方法的研究已被一起评估,突出表明这些差异比关于这些方法的学术论述所表明的要小。这一发展提出了科学需要回答的两个重要研究问题:首先,我们如何正式地将使用高条件方法的归因陈述与气候变化如何改变极端天气事件的可能性和强度的概率评估结合起来?第二,在什么情况下,个人归因研究仍然是必要的,现有的归因研究在多大程度上提供了足够的信息来回答社会问题?此外,科学发展仍然留下了重要的差距,特别是在全球南方国家,导致围绕政策背景下极端事件归属的必要性和要求的伦理问题,为适应、损失和损害以及脆弱性的作用提供信息。《环境与资源年鉴》第48卷预计最终在线出版日期为2023年10月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 0
Groundwater Quality and Public Health 地下水质量与公众健康
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-08-16 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-114701
Xianjun Xie, Jianbo Shi, K. Pi, Yamin Deng, Binghai Yan, L. Tong, Linlin Yao, Yiran Dong, Junxia Li, Liyuan Ma, C. Zheng, Guibin Jiang
Groundwater deterioration due to enrichment with contaminants of either geogenic or anthropogenic origin has adversely affected safe water supply for drinking and irrigation, with pervasive impacts on human health and ecosystem functions. However, the spatiotemporal evolution and public health effects of groundwater quality remain unclarified, posing a grand challenge for the safe and sustainable supply of global groundwater resources. This article provides a state-of-the-art review of the complexity and dynamics of groundwater quality, as well as the impacts of various groundwater substances on human health. In particular, knowledge is growing about the health impacts of key substances ranging from nutritional elements (e.g., Ca2+, Mg2+) to pollutants (e.g., heavy metals/metalloids, persistent organic pollutants, and emerging contaminants) and, further, to pathogenic microorganisms to which the human body can be exposed through multiple patterns of groundwater use. Proliferating concerns at the same time call for enhancing, science-based governance directives, economic policies, and management strategies coordinating groundwater quality. We propose that safeguarding groundwater-dependent public health needs concerted efforts in source control, cross-scale rehabilitation, and social hydrology-based groundwater governance. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Volume 48 is October 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
地下水因富含地质或人为来源的污染物而恶化,对饮用水和灌溉用水的安全供应产生不利影响,对人类健康和生态系统功能产生普遍影响。然而,地下水质量的时空演变及其对公众健康的影响仍不清楚,这对全球地下水资源的安全和可持续供应构成了巨大挑战。本文综述了地下水质量的复杂性和动态,以及各种地下水物质对人类健康的影响。特别是,人们对从营养元素(如Ca2+、Mg2+)到污染物(如重金属/类金属、持久性有机污染物和新出现的污染物)等关键物质对健康的影响的认识正在增长,此外,还对人体可能通过多种地下水使用方式接触到的病原微生物有所了解。与此同时,日益增加的担忧要求加强以科学为基础的治理指令、经济政策和协调地下水质量的管理战略。我们建议,保障依赖地下水的公共健康需要在源头控制、跨尺度修复和基于社会水文的地下水治理方面共同努力。《环境与资源年鉴》第48卷预计最终在线出版日期为2023年10月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 1
Risks to Coastal Critical Infrastructure from Climate Change 气候变化对沿海关键基础设施的风险
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-08-08 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-112320-101903
I. Pal, Ajay Kumar, A. Mukhopadhyay
Coastal systems are sensitive to direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Approximately 90% of all coastal areas will be affected by climate change to varying degrees. Nearly half of the world's major cities are located within 50 km of a coast, and coastal population densities are 2.6 times greater than those of inland areas, with a steep rise over the years. While coastal critical infrastructure is expanding, more social and physical systems are increasingly exposed to climate-induced hazards. The interconnectedness and interdependencies of critical infrastructure systems increase their systemic instability and fragility, resulting in greater dynamic risk and cascading impacts. Coastal critical infrastructure systems on several continents are at risk from the effects of climate change, including sea level rise, storm surges, and extreme weather events. Therefore, it is necessary to build and run climate-resilient infrastructure that is planned, designed, implemented, and operated to predict, be prepared for, and adapt to changing climatic circumstances. This review provides an up-to-date, objective, and critical assessment based on the literature to help determine what is known and what needs the future attention of researchers. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Volume 48 is October 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
沿海系统对气候变化的直接和间接影响都很敏感。大约90%的沿海地区将不同程度地受到气候变化的影响。世界上近一半的主要城市都位于离海岸50公里的范围内,沿海地区的人口密度是内陆地区的2.6倍,而且近年来还在急剧上升。在沿海关键基础设施不断扩大的同时,更多的社会和自然系统也日益暴露于气候引发的危害之下。关键基础设施系统的互联性和相互依赖性增加了其系统的不稳定性和脆弱性,导致更大的动态风险和级联影响。几个大陆的沿海关键基础设施系统正面临气候变化影响的风险,包括海平面上升、风暴潮和极端天气事件。因此,有必要建设和运行气候适应型基础设施,这些基础设施的规划、设计、实施和运营,以预测、准备和适应不断变化的气候环境。这篇综述提供了一个最新的、客观的、批判性的基于文献的评估,以帮助确定什么是已知的,什么是需要研究人员未来关注的。《环境与资源年鉴》第48卷预计最终在线出版日期为2023年10月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 4
Surveying the Evidence on Sustainable Intensification Strategies for Smallholder Agricultural Systems 小农农业系统可持续集约化战略证据调查
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-04-26 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-112320-093911
Meha Jain, C. Barrett, D. Solomon, Kate Ghezzi-Kopel
Food demand is projected to increase significantly over the coming decades. Sustainable intensification (SI) is essential to meet this demand. SI is particularly important in smallholder systems, yet to date it remains unclear what the most promising SI strategies are to increase food production and farmer incomes at scale. We review the literature on SI to identify the most promising strategies, as manifest in replicated findings of favorable causal impacts. Adoption of improved cultivars generated the largest, most consistent, positive yield and economic outcomes. Two agroecological practices, push-pull systems and the System of Rice Intensification, also repeatedly led to large positive impacts. These strategies have considerable potential to scale to reach more than 50% of smallholder farmers who plant staple crops. Significant barriers to adoption remain, however, and identifying ways to overcome barriers to scale these successful strategies will be critical to meeting Sustainable Development Goals 1 and 2 by 2030. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Volume 48 is October 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
预计未来几十年粮食需求将显著增加。可持续集约化(SI)对于满足这一需求至关重要。SI在小农系统中尤为重要,但迄今为止,对于大规模增加粮食产量和农民收入最有希望的SI战略是什么仍不清楚。我们回顾了关于SI的文献,以确定最有希望的策略,正如在有利的因果影响的重复发现中所体现的那样。改良品种的采用产生了最大的、最稳定的、积极的产量和经济效益。两种农业生态实践,推拉系统和水稻集约化系统,也反复产生了巨大的积极影响。这些战略具有相当大的推广潜力,可惠及种植主要作物的50%以上的小农。然而,采用这些战略的重大障碍仍然存在,确定克服障碍的方法以扩大这些成功战略的规模,对于到2030年实现可持续发展目标1和2至关重要。《环境与资源年鉴》第48卷预计最终在线出版日期为2023年10月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 5
Deforestation-Free Commodity Supply Chains: Myth or Reality? 无森林砍伐的商品供应链:神话还是现实?
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-04-18 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-121436
E. Lambin, P. Furumo
Since the early 2000s, many private companies, public-private coalitions, and governments have committed to remove deforestation from commodity supply chains. Despite these zero-deforestation commitments (ZDCs), high rates of deforestation persist and may even be increasing. On the upside, a few region- and commodity-specific ZDCs have contributed to reductions by up to hundreds of thousands of hectares of deforestation, with mixed evidence on associated leakage. ZDCs have also spurred progress in monitoring, traceability, and awareness of deforestation. On the downside, as currently implemented, supply chain initiatives only cover a small share of tropical deforestation. Government- and company-led ZDCs are just two components of broader policy mixes aimed at reducing deforestation. To be more impactful, ZDCs needs to cover entire biomes, supply bases of companies, and export and domestic markets, with special attention not to exclude marginal producers. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Volume 48 is October 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
自21世纪初以来,许多私营公司、公私联盟和政府已承诺将森林砍伐从商品供应链中移除。尽管有这些零毁林承诺,但高毁林率仍然存在,甚至可能还在增加。有利的一面是,一些特定区域和特定商品的发展中国家为减少数十万公顷的森林砍伐做出了贡献,但有关相关泄漏的证据好坏参半。发展中国家在监测、可追溯性和对森林砍伐的认识方面也取得了进展。不利的一面是,目前实施的供应链倡议只覆盖了热带森林砍伐的一小部分。政府和公司主导的zdc只是旨在减少森林砍伐的更广泛政策组合的两个组成部分。为了产生更大的影响,发展中国家需要覆盖整个生物群落、公司的供应基地以及出口和国内市场,并特别注意不排除边际生产者。《环境与资源年鉴》第48卷预计最终在线出版日期为2023年10月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 4
Environmental Decision-Making in Times of Polarization 两极分化时代的环境决策
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-115339
Madeline Judge, Y. Kashima, L. Steg, Thomas Dietz
Polarization in the United States and around the world is of growing concern. Polarization is about more than just differences in opinions in society. It occurs when groups increasingly diverge in either actual or perceived differences in opinion and can involve both disagreements about issues and negative views of other groups. Since most environmental problems are collective action problems, polarization may interfere with the kinds of deliberation and collaborations needed for effective environmental decision-making. In this review, we examine how polarization influences environmental decision-making and what strategies could be useful for preventing or reducing the negative consequences of polarization. Evidence about the extent of polarization among citizens suggests the current situation may be less severe than is sometimes assumed. The coevolution of individual views, network interactions, and social media that cause polarization is complex and subject to rapid change. However, there are interventions that seem to be effective at reducing polarization. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Volume 48 is October 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
美国和世界各地的两极分化日益令人担忧。两极分化不仅仅是社会观点的差异。当群体在实际或感知上的意见分歧越来越大时,就会发生这种情况,可能涉及对问题的分歧和对其他群体的负面看法。由于大多数环境问题都是集体行动问题,两极分化可能会干扰有效环境决策所需的审议和合作。在这篇综述中,我们研究了极化是如何影响环境决策的,以及哪些策略可以用来预防或减少极化的负面后果。有关公民之间两极分化程度的证据表明,目前的情况可能没有人们有时认为的那么严重。导致两极分化的个人观点、网络互动和社交媒体的共同进化是复杂的,并且会发生快速变化。然而,有些干预措施似乎可以有效地减少两极分化。《环境与资源年鉴》第48卷预计最终在线出版日期为2023年10月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 1
Sustainability Careers 可持续发展事业
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-120920-105353
C. Boone, Erin Bromaghim, A. Kapuscinski
Addressing climate change and achieving sustainable development are the grand challenges for this century. This review assesses how sustainability and green jobs are changing in response to these formidable challenges, with a focus on energy transitions and responsible production and consumption. The energy transition to renewable sources will generate a net increase in employment, although some regions of the world may see net losses. Jobs in responsible consumption and production, motivated by changing consumer demand and savings from circular economy strategies, will increase the number of green and sustainability jobs. Since sustainability and green jobs require higher levels of creative problem-solving, more nonroutine activities, formal education, and on-the-job training than traditional jobs, more training will be necessary to meet skills demands in green and sustainability positions. We review how competency and capacity approaches to learning, credentialing, and on-the-job training have been employed to meet growing demand for sustainability and green jobs. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Volume 48 is October 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
应对气候变化、实现可持续发展是本世纪面临的重大挑战。本报告评估了可持续发展和绿色就业是如何应对这些严峻挑战的,重点是能源转型和负责任的生产和消费。向可再生能源的能源过渡将带来就业的净增加,尽管世界上一些区域可能会出现净损失。在不断变化的消费者需求和循环经济战略的储蓄的推动下,负责任的消费和生产方面的工作将增加绿色和可持续性工作的数量。由于与传统工作相比,可持续发展和绿色工作需要更高水平的创造性问题解决、更多的非常规活动、正规教育和在职培训,因此需要更多的培训来满足绿色和可持续发展职位的技能需求。我们回顾了学习、认证和在职培训的能力和能力方法是如何被用来满足对可持续发展和绿色工作日益增长的需求的。《环境与资源年鉴》第48卷预计最终在线出版日期为2023年10月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 1
Great Green Walls: Hype, Myth, and Science 绿色长城:炒作、神话和科学
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-111102
M. Turner, D. Davis, E. Yeh, P. Hiernaux, Emma R. Loizeaux, Emily M. Fornof, Anika M. Rice, Aaron K. Suiter
Visions of planting walls of trees to block the expansion of the desert have long been promoted but never fully realized. The green wall myth persists today even though it is premised on outdated understandings of desertification. We review the history of the idea of green walls and focus on two sets of contemporary initiatives to assess their outcomes: peri-Saharan programs (Algeria's Green Dam and Great Green Wall in sub-Saharan Africa) and China's Three Norths Shelterbelt Program. This review reveals a mixed record of technical success with low rates of tree establishment, particularly in drier areas and monocultures of fast-growing trees vulnerable to disease. While there is evidence for reduced wind erosion in some areas, afforestation is also associated with reduced soil moisture and lowering of water tables. Social impacts include increased water scarcity for people and livestock in some cases, and resource enclosures that particularly work against pastoralist livelihoods. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Volume 48 is October 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
种植树墙以阻止沙漠扩张的设想一直被提倡,但从未完全实现。绿墙的神话一直延续到今天,尽管它是以对沙漠化的过时理解为前提的。我们回顾了绿墙理念的历史,并将重点放在两组当代倡议上,以评估其成果:撒哈拉周边项目(阿尔及利亚的绿坝和撒哈拉以南非洲的绿色长城)和中国的三北防护林项目。这篇综述揭示了技术成功的混合记录,树木成活率低,特别是在干旱地区和易患疾病的速生树木的单一栽培。虽然有证据表明某些地区的风蚀减少了,但造林也与土壤湿度降低和地下水位降低有关。社会影响包括,在某些情况下,人和牲畜的水资源短缺加剧,资源圈闭尤其不利于牧民的生计。《环境与资源年鉴》第48卷预计最终在线出版日期为2023年10月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 3
Advances in Qualitative Methods in Environmental Research 环境研究中的定性方法进展
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-080106
Holly Caggiano, Elke U. Weber
Qualitative research methods examine a wide range of topics in the study of environment and resource management. This first review on the topic highlights innovative and impactful research over the past few decades, drawing from social science disciplines that include sociology, geography, anthropology, political science, public policy, and psychology. We describe qualitative research methods that have addressed five scientific goals: ( a) describing what the world is like, ( b) predicting what the world can be like, ( c) acknowledging researcher positionality, reflexivity, and diversifying ways of knowing in theorizing and research designs, ( d) integrating imaginaries into empirical research and building narratives to make sense of possible futures and to broaden our view of scientific inquiry, and ( e) helping scholars grapple with the deep complexity of socioecological systems. As we explore these themes, we explain foundational qualitative approaches and highlight examples of environmental qualitative research that apply them. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Volume 48 is October 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
定性研究方法在环境和资源管理研究中考察了广泛的主题。这是对这一主题的首次回顾,重点介绍了过去几十年来在社会学、地理学、人类学、政治学、公共政策和心理学等社会科学学科方面的创新和有影响力的研究。我们描述了解决五个科学目标的定性研究方法:(a)描述世界是什么样的;(b)预测世界可能是什么样的;(c)在理论和研究设计中承认研究者的立场性、反身性和多样化的认识方式;(d)将想象融入实证研究并构建叙事,以理解可能的未来,拓宽我们对科学探究的看法;(e)帮助学者应对社会生态系统的深层复杂性。当我们探讨这些主题时,我们解释了基本的定性方法,并强调了应用它们的环境定性研究的例子。《环境与资源年鉴》第48卷预计最终在线出版日期为2023年10月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 0
Shepherding Sub-Saharan Africa's Wildlife Through Peak Anthropogenic Pressure Toward a Green Anthropocene 带领撒哈拉以南非洲野生动物渡过人为压力高峰,迈向绿色人类世
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-120920-125536
P. Lindsey, S. H. Anderson, A. Dickman, P. Gandiwa, S. Harper, A. Morakinyo, N. Nyambe, M. O’Brien-Onyeka, C. Packer, A.H. Parker, A. Robson, Alice Ruhweza, E. Sogbohossou, K. Steiner, P.N. Tumenta
Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA's) iconic biodiversity is of immense potential global value but is jeopardized by increasing anthropogenic pressures. Elevated consumption in wealthier countries and the demands of international corporations manifest in significant resource extraction from SSA. Biodiversity in SSA also faces increasing domestic pressures, including rapidly growing human populations. The demographic transition to lower fertility rates is occurring later and slower in SSA than elsewhere, and the continent's human population may quadruple by 2100. SSA's biodiversity will therefore pass through a bottleneck of growing anthropogenic pressures, while also experiencing intensifying effects of climate change. SSA's biodiversity could be severely diminished over the coming decades and numerous species pushed to extinction. However, the prospects for nature conservation in SSA should improve in the long term, and we predict that the region will eventually enter a Green Anthropocene. Here, we outline critical steps needed to shepherd SSA's biodiversity into the Green Anthropocene epoch.
撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)标志性的生物多样性具有巨大的潜在全球价值,但正受到日益增加的人为压力的危害。富裕国家消费的增加和国际公司的需求表现在对SSA的大量资源开采。SSA的生物多样性也面临着越来越大的国内压力,包括人口的快速增长。人口结构向低生育率的转变在SSA比其他地方发生得更晚、更慢,到2100年,该大陆的人口可能会翻两番。因此,SSA的生物多样性将经历一个人为压力不断增加的瓶颈,同时也将经历气候变化的加剧影响。在未来几十年里,SSA的生物多样性可能会严重减少,许多物种将濒临灭绝。然而,从长远来看,南南亚地区的自然保护前景应该会有所改善,我们预测该地区最终将进入绿色人类世。在这里,我们概述了将SSA的生物多样性带入绿色人类世时代所需的关键步骤。
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引用次数: 6
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Annual Review of Environment and Resources
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