Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2021-63-5-29
N. Fokin, Ranepa
The paper considers two types of models for forecasting seasonally adjusted Russian GDP under the structural breaks. Models that allow breaks in a deterministic trend, in which the dates of structural breaks are set exogenously, and more flexible class of models – with a stochastic trend are considered. It is shown that modeling a structural break in a deterministic trend or adding a stochastic trend significantly improves the quality of 3–4 steps ahead forecasts, and sometimes even on shorter horizons, compared to models with a constant trend growth rate.
{"title":"The importance of modeling structural breaks in forecasting Russian GDP","authors":"N. Fokin, Ranepa","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2021-63-5-29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2021-63-5-29","url":null,"abstract":"The paper considers two types of models for forecasting seasonally adjusted Russian GDP under the structural breaks. Models that allow breaks in a deterministic trend, in which the dates of structural breaks are set exogenously, and more flexible class of models – with a stochastic trend are considered. It is shown that modeling a structural break in a deterministic trend or adding a stochastic trend significantly improves the quality of 3–4 steps ahead forecasts, and sometimes even on shorter horizons, compared to models with a constant trend growth rate.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68417390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2021-63-91-116
A. Tsvetkova
The paper examines technical efficiency of Russian firms during the period from 2013 to 2018 applying the stochastic production frontier method. The estimates obtained indicate that technical efficiency grows with firm size and declines with its age. While macroeconomic situation deteriorated in 2015–2016, technical efficiency in most industries changed insignificantly. However, the number of industries with a negative trend in technical efficiency is higher than the number of industries with a positive trend. The contribution of industries with declining technical efficiency to the total employment and output are higher than those of industries with growing technical efficiency or insignificantly changing technical efficiency.
{"title":"Technical efficiency trends of Russian firms in 2013–2018","authors":"A. Tsvetkova","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2021-63-91-116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2021-63-91-116","url":null,"abstract":"The paper examines technical efficiency of Russian firms during the period from 2013 to 2018 applying the stochastic production frontier method. The estimates obtained indicate that technical efficiency grows with firm size and declines with its age. While macroeconomic situation deteriorated in 2015–2016, technical efficiency in most industries changed insignificantly. However, the number of industries with a negative trend in technical efficiency is higher than the number of industries with a positive trend. The contribution of industries with declining technical efficiency to the total employment and output are higher than those of industries with growing technical efficiency or insignificantly changing technical efficiency.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68417593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2021-64-70-82
G. Besstremyannaya, S. Golovan
The desire to capture heterogeneity in the response of the dependent variable to covariates often forces empiricists to employ panel data quantile regression models. Very often practitioners forget the limitations of their datasets in terms of the sample size n and the length of panel T. Yet, quantile regression requires large samples, long panels and small value of the ratio n/T. So the estimator in quantile regression with short panels is biased. The paper reviews the approaches for estimating longitudinal models for quantile regression. We highlight the fact that a method of smoothed quantile regression may be viewed as a remedy for reducing the asymptotic bias of the estimator in short panels, both in case of quantile-dependent and quantile-independent fixed effect specifications.
{"title":"Measuring heterogeneity with fixed effect quantile regression: Long panels and short panels","authors":"G. Besstremyannaya, S. Golovan","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2021-64-70-82","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2021-64-70-82","url":null,"abstract":"The desire to capture heterogeneity in the response of the dependent variable to covariates often forces empiricists to employ panel data quantile regression models. Very often practitioners forget the limitations of their datasets in terms of the sample size n and the length of panel T. Yet, quantile regression requires large samples, long panels and small value of the ratio n/T. So the estimator in quantile regression with short panels is biased. The paper reviews the approaches for estimating longitudinal models for quantile regression. We highlight the fact that a method of smoothed quantile regression may be viewed as a remedy for reducing the asymptotic bias of the estimator in short panels, both in case of quantile-dependent and quantile-independent fixed effect specifications.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68417936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2021-62-54-65
A. D. Fofack, S. D. Temkeng
The aim of this paper is to assess and compare the link between labor productivity and compensation in four industries — air transport, electronics, finance, and telecommunications — of twenty‐five member states of the European Union (EU) from 2000 to 2014. The long‐run and short‐run dynamics of productivity and compensation are analyzed using the pooled mean group (PMG), the mean group (MG) and the dynamic fixed effects (DFE) estimators. The results confirm the existence of a gap between productivity and compensation in each of those industries as mentioned in previous studies. However, the results show that despite that gap, the link between the two variables is not broken. That is, productivity and compensation are not only linked in the long run, but they also return to their long‐run equilibrium after every short‐run disturbance. The econometric analysis also reveals that the relation between productivity and compensation does not follow a significantly different pattern from one industry to the other. These findings robust to alternative models, estimation techniques and across industries, suggest that there are some other cross‐sectoral factors preventing productivity gains to be fully reflected on paychecks.
{"title":"A cross-sectoral analysis of the relation between labor productivity and labor compensation in the European Union","authors":"A. D. Fofack, S. D. Temkeng","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2021-62-54-65","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2021-62-54-65","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to assess and compare the link between labor productivity and compensation in four industries — air transport, electronics, finance, and telecommunications — of twenty‐five member states of the European Union (EU) from 2000 to 2014. The long‐run and short‐run dynamics of productivity and compensation are analyzed using the pooled mean group (PMG), the mean group (MG) and the dynamic fixed effects (DFE) estimators. The results confirm the existence of a gap between productivity and compensation in each of those industries as mentioned in previous studies. However, the results show that despite that gap, the link between the two variables is not broken. That is, productivity and compensation are not only linked in the long run, but they also return to their long‐run equilibrium after every short‐run disturbance. The econometric analysis also reveals that the relation between productivity and compensation does not follow a significantly different pattern from one industry to the other. These findings robust to alternative models, estimation techniques and across industries, suggest that there are some other cross‐sectoral factors preventing productivity gains to be fully reflected on paychecks.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68416610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2021-64-49-69
Anastasia Dubnovitskaya
This study is to shed more light on the relation of pay satisfaction with the average wages of individuals with the same characteristics and the deviation of the actual wages from that average (a.k.a. social comparison). The study reveals that social comparison plays a greater role in determining pay satisfaction than mere pay amount. The contribution of both factors to pay satisfaction is fairly stable and does not exhibit any drastic changes from 2002 to 2019. The deviation of actual wages from the average level contributes twice as much as the reference group average into the individual’s pay satisfaction.
{"title":"Who is satisfied with their pay? Evidence from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey","authors":"Anastasia Dubnovitskaya","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2021-64-49-69","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2021-64-49-69","url":null,"abstract":"This study is to shed more light on the relation of pay satisfaction with the average wages of individuals with the same characteristics and the deviation of the actual wages from that average (a.k.a. social comparison). The study reveals that social comparison plays a greater role in determining pay satisfaction than mere pay amount. The contribution of both factors to pay satisfaction is fairly stable and does not exhibit any drastic changes from 2002 to 2019. The deviation of actual wages from the average level contributes twice as much as the reference group average into the individual’s pay satisfaction.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68417830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2021-62-5-31
Sergey Roshchin, N. Yemelina
This study introduces a comparative analysis of the gender wage gap decomposition methods with the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) data for 2018. To decompose the differences in average wages, approaches based on the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition are used. Apart from the mean wages, the study focuses on other distribution statistics. Using the quantile regressions, the wage gap between men and women is decomposed for the distribution parameters such as median, lower and upper deciles. The decomposition estimates of conditional and unconditional (based on recentered influence functions) quantile regressions are compared.
{"title":"Gender wage gap decomposition methods: Comparative analysis","authors":"Sergey Roshchin, N. Yemelina","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2021-62-5-31","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2021-62-5-31","url":null,"abstract":"This study introduces a comparative analysis of the gender wage gap decomposition methods with the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) data for 2018. To decompose the differences in average wages, approaches based on the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition are used. Apart from the mean wages, the study focuses on other distribution statistics. Using the quantile regressions, the wage gap between men and women is decomposed for the distribution parameters such as median, lower and upper deciles. The decomposition estimates of conditional and unconditional (based on recentered influence functions) quantile regressions are compared.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68416983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2021-63-30-50
K. Kakade, A. Mishra
This paper compares the value shocks from the real interest rates, real exchange rates, real crude prices, and other key macroeconomic variables on the metal prices. The structural VAR models are estimated on monthly data over the period 2005m12–2019m12 to determine the asymmetric effect of the macroeconomic shocks and determine whether commodity prices display overshooting behavior in response to these shocks. The impulse response and the forecast error variance decomposition function analyze the short-term impacts on the Indian non-ferrous metal prices. The results indicate that the metals index, and crude oil have a significant positive impact on the prices of metals, while the real interest rate negatively affects India’s metal prices. The impact of the real exchange rate and own shocks on real metal prices is found to be insignificant. Metal prices tend to display an overshooting behavior in response to changes in the real interest rate. Besides, the forecast error variance decomposition reveals the incremental contribution of crude oil prices in explaining the behaviour of metal prices.
{"title":"The impact of macroeconomic and oil shocks on India’s non-ferrous metal prices: A structural-VAR approach","authors":"K. Kakade, A. Mishra","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2021-63-30-50","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2021-63-30-50","url":null,"abstract":"This paper compares the value shocks from the real interest rates, real exchange rates, real crude prices, and other key macroeconomic variables on the metal prices. The structural VAR models are estimated on monthly data over the period 2005m12–2019m12 to determine the asymmetric effect of the macroeconomic shocks and determine whether commodity prices display overshooting behavior in response to these shocks. The impulse response and the forecast error variance decomposition function analyze the short-term impacts on the Indian non-ferrous metal prices. The results indicate that the metals index, and crude oil have a significant positive impact on the prices of metals, while the real interest rate negatively affects India’s metal prices. The impact of the real exchange rate and own shocks on real metal prices is found to be insignificant. Metal prices tend to display an overshooting behavior in response to changes in the real interest rate. Besides, the forecast error variance decomposition reveals the incremental contribution of crude oil prices in explaining the behaviour of metal prices.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68417192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2021-64-83-106
A. Skrobotov
This review discusses methods of testing for a cointegration rank in a multivariate time series in the presence of structural breaks. The review covers both the methods with known and unknown break date. Multiple breaks are also considered. The issues of testing for cointegration with a possible change in the cointegration rank over time are discussed separately.
{"title":"Structural breaks in cointegration models: Multivariate case","authors":"A. Skrobotov","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2021-64-83-106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2021-64-83-106","url":null,"abstract":"This review discusses methods of testing for a cointegration rank in a multivariate time series in the presence of structural breaks. The review covers both the methods with known and unknown break date. Multiple breaks are also considered. The issues of testing for cointegration with a possible change in the cointegration rank over time are discussed separately.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68417950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2021-62-101-124
D. Malakhov, L. Yakobson
According to the NGO theory, the main comparative advantage of these organizations is the high level of trust, provided primarily by the peculiarities of corporate governance and information openness. In Russia, these features of NGOs are still relatively weak, but they are gradually being mastered by the non‐profit sector. Based on the data of an all‐Russian representative survey of 1001 NGOs, using the exogenous differences in the requirements of the legislation for the organization of corporate governance in different legal forms of NGOs, it is shown that if an NGO at the time of creation has a board of trustees and/or a supervisory board, then it has a statically significant positive effect on the information openness. This result seems to be important in the context of the development of the non‐profit sector in Russia.
{"title":"Corporate governance and information openness in Russian NGOs","authors":"D. Malakhov, L. Yakobson","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2021-62-101-124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2021-62-101-124","url":null,"abstract":"According to the NGO theory, the main comparative advantage of these organizations is the high level of trust, provided primarily by the peculiarities of corporate governance and information openness. In Russia, these features of NGOs are still relatively weak, but they are gradually being mastered by the non‐profit sector. Based on the data of an all‐Russian representative survey of 1001 NGOs, using the exogenous differences in the requirements of the legislation for the organization of corporate governance in different legal forms of NGOs, it is shown that if an NGO at the time of creation has a board of trustees and/or a supervisory board, then it has a statically significant positive effect on the information openness. This result seems to be important in the context of the development of the non‐profit sector in Russia.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68416711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2021-61-140-143
A. Maksimov, V. Kramkov
{"title":"Joint session of the conference “Modern econometric tools and applications” (META2020) and the workshop “Applied Econometrics”","authors":"A. Maksimov, V. Kramkov","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2021-61-140-143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2021-61-140-143","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"61 1","pages":"140-143"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68416762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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