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Portfolio performance under dynamic systematic risk and conditional betas: the South African unit trust market 动态系统风险和条件贝塔下的投资组合绩效:南非单位信托市场
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2022-66-85-98
Bwalya Kalima, T. Gopane
This study examines whether South African unit trust managers can outperform the market and demonstrate distinct market-timing abilities under systematic dynamic risk. A conditional portfolio evaluation method is used under dynamic systematic risk. The BEKK-MGARCH model is applied to estimate the time-varying CAPM beta. The sample of the study includes 86 unit trust funds for the hardly studied multi-asset class between 2010 and 2019 in South Africa. The findings of the study show positive evidence that portfolio managers in the South African unit trust market possess some skills for market timing and outperformance. These results differ from most of the outcomes obtained through model-free performance-evaluation methods. The significant contribution of this study to the literature is in conditioning beta to both time and economic variables within the same asset pricing model, and then applying it to the emerging market of South Africa. Another strength of this paper is maintaining patient and formal adherence to econometric requirements of model validation. The empirical findings of the study should benefit portfolio managers, investors, and regulators with updated insight into the importance of considering both risk variability and changing economic factors in portfolio evaluation.
本研究检视南非单位信托经理人在系统性动态风险下,是否能超越市场表现,并展现出独特的择时能力。采用动态系统风险下的条件投资组合评价方法。采用BEKK-MGARCH模型估计时变CAPM beta。该研究的样本包括南非2010年至2019年间几乎没有研究过的多资产类别的86只单位信托基金。研究结果表明,南非单位信托市场的投资组合经理具备一定的市场时机选择和跑赢大盘的技能。这些结果不同于大多数通过无模型性能评价方法获得的结果。本研究对文献的重大贡献是在同一资产定价模型中对时间和经济变量进行调节,然后将其应用于南非的新兴市场。本文的另一个优势是保持耐心和正式遵守模型验证的计量经济学要求。该研究的实证结果将使投资组合经理、投资者和监管机构受益,他们对投资组合评估中考虑风险可变性和不断变化的经济因素的重要性有了新的认识。
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引用次数: 1
Energy commodities: A study on model selection for estimating Value-at-Risk 能源商品:评估风险价值的模型选择研究
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2022-68-5-27
Raphael Amaro, C. Pinho
Changes in commodity prices can be transmitted directly to the real economy through changes in the marginal cost of production. Therefore, it is extremely important to create some mechanism to protect against these movements in the commodities futures market. Exposure in this market comes along with tail risk, which must be measured and controlled using a risk measure. To help economic agents, this research provides a common statistical specification that can be used to reliably predict the Value‐at‐Risk of four important energy commodities. For this, the predictions of a range of 48 competing models, composed of four heteroskedastic specifications, six conditional distributions, and a Markov chain with up to two regimes, were compared using various statistical tests, and the model with the best average results was preferred.
商品价格的变化可以通过边际生产成本的变化直接传导到实体经济。因此,在商品期货市场上建立一些机制来防止这些波动是极其重要的。这个市场的风险敞口伴随着尾部风险,必须使用风险度量来衡量和控制尾部风险。为了帮助经济主体,本研究提供了一个通用的统计规范,可用于可靠地预测四种重要能源商品的风险价值。为此,使用各种统计测试比较了48个相互竞争的模型的预测,这些模型由4个异方差规范、6个条件分布和至多2个制度的马尔可夫链组成,并优选了具有最佳平均结果的模型。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating the effect of higher education on abortion 估计高等教育对堕胎的影响
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2022-68-117-139
S. Dolgikh, B. Potanin
We estimate the effect of higher education on abortion probability in Russia via hierarchical (recursive) probit model with nonrandom selection. To check the robustness of the results modifications of this model accounting for heteroscedasticity and non‐normality of random errors are also applied. We have found statistical evidence that higher education decrease abortion probability. Furthermore, the results of the analysis suggest that there is nonrandom selection into pregnant women and without accounting for it the effect of higher education may be underestimated.
本文通过非随机选择的递归概率模型估计了高等教育对俄罗斯堕胎概率的影响。为了检验结果的稳健性,还应用了考虑随机误差的异方差和非正态性的模型修改。我们发现统计证据表明,高等教育降低了堕胎的概率。此外,分析结果表明,孕妇中存在非随机选择,如果没有考虑到这一点,高等教育的影响可能被低估了。
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引用次数: 0
The CARR-volatility connectedness between USD/TRY and foreign banks in Turkey: Evidence by TVP-VAR 美元/土耳其里拉与土耳其外资银行的carr -波动性连通性:TVP-VAR证据
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2022-67-5-26
Yakup Arı
This study focuses on the volatility spillover between the stock prices of foreign banks having business in Turkey and the exchange rate. More particularly, it analyzes the connectedness between the USD-TRY exchange rate volatility and the foreign banks’ stock price volatility in their own country’s stock markets. We select ten foreign banks with the biggest total assets and divide them into two panels: eastern and western capitalized banks. The dataset contains weekly data from 2016-01-04 to 2022-01-17. We estimate volatilities utilizing the Conditional Autoregressive Range (CARR) model and then apply the Time-Varying Parameter- Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) based Diebold–Yilmaz Connectedness Index to reveal the transition and connectedness of volatility. The total connectedness indices show that 26.72 and 54.75% of the forecast error variance originate from other assets included in the spillover analysis for eastern and western panels, respectively. We also explore net pairwise comovements and find that shocks in USD-TRY have dominated on the forecast error variance of bank stocks in the eastern panel, while it is a net volatility receiver in the western panel.
本文主要研究在土耳其开展业务的外资银行股价与汇率之间的波动溢出效应。更具体地说,本文分析了美元兑土耳其里拉汇率波动与外国银行在本国股票市场的股价波动之间的联系。本文选取总资产规模最大的10家外资银行,将其分为东资银行和西资银行两组。数据集包含2016-01-04 ~ 2022-01-17的每周数据。我们利用条件自回归极差(CARR)模型估计波动率,然后应用基于时变参数-向量自回归(TVP-VAR)的Diebold-Yilmaz连通性指数来揭示波动率的过渡和连通性。总连通性指数表明,东部面板和西部面板的预测误差方差分别有26.72%和54.75%来自于溢出分析中包含的其他资产。我们还探讨了净两两变动,发现美元兑日元的冲击在东部面板中主导了银行股的预测误差方差,而在西部面板中则是净波动接受者。
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引用次数: 1
Quantifying heterogeneity in the relationship between R&D intensity and growth at innovative Japanese firms: A quantile regression approach 日本创新型企业研发强度与增长关系的异质性量化:分位数回归方法
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2022-67-27-45
G. Besstremyannaya, Richard B. Dasher, S. Golovan
This paper focuses on innovative manufacturing firms in Japan in 2009–2020 and evaluates differences in the relationship between R&D intensity and firm growth. We use a longitudinal version of the conditional quantile regression model to estimate the augmented Gibrat’s law equation for each of four innovative industries: chemicals and allied products; electronic and other electrical equipment; industrial and commercial machinery and computer equipment; and transportation equipment. The analysis reveals statistical differences in estimated coefficients for R&D intensity across low, median and high-growth firms within each industry and across pairs of industries. The results imply the presence of different patterns of R&D effectiveness which are discussed in the light of R&D management drawing on the experience of Sony and other fast-growing Japanese electronics firms. We also discover heterogeneity in the impact on growth of the age and size of firms.
本文以2009-2020年日本创新型制造企业为研究对象,考察了研发强度与企业成长关系的差异。我们使用纵向版本的条件分位回归模型来估计四个创新行业的增强型直布罗陀定律方程:化学品和相关产品;电子及其他电气设备;工商机械和计算机设备;以及运输设备。分析表明,在每个行业中,低成长性企业、中成长性企业和高成长性企业之间,以及行业对之间,研发强度估计系数存在统计学差异。研究结果表明,研发效率存在不同的模式,并借鉴索尼和其他快速增长的日本电子公司的经验,从研发管理的角度对其进行了讨论。我们还发现了企业年龄和规模对增长影响的异质性。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of short-term rental prices in the sharing economy: The case of Airbnb in Moscow 共享经济中短期租赁价格的决定因素:以莫斯科的Airbnb为例
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2022-65-5-28
E. Bobrovskaya, A. Polbin
In this paper we analyze pricing on a large online platform for short‐term rental housing Airbnb based on Moscow dataset in January 2021. We build a multiple regression model based on a hedonic price function. We identify the main price determinants and the features typical for the specified market. In addition, the results demonstrate the importance of applying quantile regression and geographically weighted regression for more detailed analysis of the determinants of short‐term rental prices.
在本文中,我们基于2021年1月莫斯科的数据集,分析了大型在线平台Airbnb上短期租赁住房的定价。我们建立了一个基于享乐价格函数的多元回归模型。我们确定了主要的价格决定因素和特定市场的典型特征。此外,研究结果表明了应用分位数回归和地理加权回归对短期租金价格决定因素进行更详细分析的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting the Value-at-Risk of energy commodities: A comparison of models and alternative distribution functions 预测能源商品的风险价值:模型和替代分布函数的比较
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2022-65-77-101
Raphael Amaro, C. Pinho, M. Madaleno
Economic agents need to adequately control, and measure potential financial losses associated with commodity price swings in the futures market. One of the ways to anticipate possible price swings is to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). In its parametric form, the VaR calculation uses the volatility of a financial asset as a parameter to measure risk. Volatility is the essence of VaR calculation and should be estimated as accurately as possible. The importance of precision in volatility estimation has made heteroskedastic models and their forms of application has evolved significantly in recent years. In this context, this study aimed to verify if the incorporation of several additional parameters in the mathematical expression of the models and the use of different density functions improves the predictive capacity of the conditional variance when used in the measurement of the VaR of the energy commodities in the futures market. The results showed that the use of mathematically more complex structures is not related to better predictions of VaR. However, the use of different density functions allowed the models to fit more adequately to the data, leading to more realistic predictions of conditional variance.
经济主体需要充分控制和衡量与期货市场商品价格波动相关的潜在金融损失。预测可能的价格波动的方法之一是衡量风险价值(VaR)。VaR计算的参数形式是使用金融资产的波动率作为衡量风险的参数。波动率是VaR计算的本质,应该尽可能准确地估计。在波动率估计中,精度的重要性使得异方差模型及其应用形式近年来有了显著的发展。在此背景下,本研究旨在验证在模型的数学表达式中加入几个附加参数并使用不同的密度函数是否可以提高条件方差在期货市场中用于测量能源商品VaR时的预测能力。结果表明,使用数学上更复杂的结构与更好地预测VaR无关。然而,使用不同的密度函数可以使模型更充分地拟合数据,从而更现实地预测条件方差。
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引用次数: 0
MCMC-based credit rating aggregation algorithm to tackle data insufficiency 基于mcmc的信用评级聚合算法解决数据不足问题
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2022-68-50-72
Viktor Lapshin, Anton Markov
This paper investigates how credit rating aggregation might lead to a more efficient estimation of key portfolio risk management metrics: expected credit losses (ECL) and risk‐weighted assets (RWA). The proposed technique for credit rating aggregation is based on the Markov Chain Monte‐Carlo methodology and leads to a statistically smaller variance of ECL and RWA than the naïve and distribution‐based alternatives. This conclusion holds for three public datasets and four simulated studies. The paper results might be helpful for portfolios that suffer from data insufficiency or rely on external ratings for credit risk assessment: portfolios of international companies, interbank loans, and sovereign debt.
本文研究了信用评级聚合如何导致更有效地估计关键投资组合风险管理指标:预期信用损失(ECL)和风险加权资产(RWA)。所提出的信用评级聚合技术基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法,与naïve和基于分布的替代方法相比,ECL和RWA的统计方差更小。这一结论适用于三个公开数据集和四个模拟研究。本文的研究结果可能有助于那些数据不足或依赖外部评级进行信用风险评估的投资组合:国际公司、银行间贷款和主权债务的投资组合。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial analysis of determinants affecting the total number of Covid-19 cases of provinces in Turkey 影响土耳其各省Covid-19病例总数的决定因素的空间分析
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2022-65-102-116
Serkan Cahit Dinç, N. Erilli
The Covid-19 which is accepted as a pandemic by the World Health Organisation, has created a global panic effect all over the world. To stop this epidemic, in which more than 4 million people died as of July 2021, researches are being carried out on all kinds of issues related to the disease. In this study, a spatial econometric analysis of the determinants of the total number of Covid-19 cases in the provinces in Turkey between February 8, 2021, and May 7, 2021, was conducted. The existence of spatial autocorrelation was investigated through the Moran I test, and as a result, the Spatial Lagged Model (SAR) was found to be the most appropriate model. According to the results of the spatial analysis, it has been determined that the change in the total number of cases in a province will be in the same direction in the neighboring provinces of that province. A spatial interaction finding was obtained between the provinces and a significant and positive relationship was found between the total number of Covid-19 cases and the population density and the number of people over the age of sixty. Similarly, a significant and negative relationship was found with the average temperature and the total number of healthcare workers, and no significant relationship was found with the literacy rate.
新冠肺炎被世界卫生组织认定为大流行,在世界各地引发了全球恐慌。截至2021年7月,已有400多万人死于这一流行病,为了制止这一流行病,正在对与该疾病有关的各种问题进行研究。在本研究中,对2021年2月8日至2021年5月7日期间土耳其各省Covid-19病例总数的决定因素进行了空间计量经济学分析。通过Moran I检验考察了空间自相关的存在性,发现空间滞后模型(spatial lag Model, SAR)是最合适的模型。根据空间分析的结果,可以确定一个省的病例总数在该省邻近省份的变化方向相同。省域间存在空间交互作用,新冠肺炎病例总数与人口密度、60岁以上人口数量呈显著正相关。同样,与平均气温和医务人员总数呈显著负相关,与识字率无显著相关。
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引用次数: 1
On decrease in oil price elasticity of GDP and investment in Russia 论俄罗斯国内生产总值和投资的油价弹性下降
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2022-66-5-24
A. Polbin, A. Skrobotov
The article evaluates cointegrating regression models with time‐varying parameters to describe the relationship between real GDP, gross fixed capital formation and household consumption in the Russian Federation with oil prices. In the early 2000s there was an increase in the elasticities of the analyzed macroeconomic indicators with respect to oil prices, the peak of the elasticities occurred in the second half of the 2000s, after the crisis of 2008–2009 significant declines in elasticities have been identified, and in recent years the oil price elasticity of real GDP has been about 0.05, while for real investment and consumption it has been about 0.12.
本文评估了带有时变参数的协整回归模型,以描述俄罗斯联邦实际GDP、固定资本形成总额和家庭消费与油价之间的关系。21世纪初,所分析的宏观经济指标在油价方面的弹性有所增加,弹性的峰值出现在21世纪后半期,在2008-2009年危机之后,弹性显著下降,近年来石油价格弹性对实际GDP的影响约为0.05,而对实际投资和消费的影响约为0.12。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Applied Econometrics
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